Emmanuel Macron held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the phone on Thursday in a bid to ease tensions between Russia and Ukraine. According to a French official, the pair spoke for 90 minutes, with Putin telling Macron that the conflict was "going according to plan." A source present described the tone of the phone call as "pessimistic" and "not-so-friendly." As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its second week, Kherson mayor Ihor Kolykhaev told NBC News Thursday that the city had been captured by Russian forces. After more than a full day of continuous shelling, hundreds are feared dead in the port of Mariupol, the deputy mayor said. Explosions have been reported in the capital Kyiv and heavy shelling in the country's second city, Kharkiv.
the politically confused nature of media criticism today is a symptom of a general ideological confusion that has accelerated during the pandemic
Anyone committed to a culture of vibrant democracy needs to be alert to this ideological confusion. We need to minimise the chances of our own political and media critiques compounding the problem and be vigilant for reactionary rhetoric that loves to blur left-right boundaries.
But Sean, left-right boundaries have been blurred here for almost 40 years. The guilty party was Labour. Have you forgotten already?? Or are you some kind of foreign invader ignorant of Aotearoa's political history?
But our democratic imaginations will be seriously impoverished if the public conversation is reduced to a Manichean alternative of wild, paranoid denunciations of the "MSM" versus unquestioning support of our present media systems.
Most people are binary, so will be unable to perceive nuances offered by non-binary contributors. And Sean, democracy is controlled by this majority, so impoverishment is inevitable, right? Do try to use your brain.
Surely it's obvious that democracy was set up to institutionalise a binary structure to politics. Nat/Lab sheeple will always head through those two gates. The social science research reported a couple of weeks back found that the largest political grouping within the parliament protest was those who voted Labour at the last election. Betrayal by Labour in govt roused that rabble…
Age-standardised hospitalisation rates for COVID-19 are lower for people who have received a booster or 3rd dose of a COVID-19 vaccine compared to individuals that are unvaccinated or have received one or two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Age-standardised mortality rates for COVID-19 deaths are lower for people who have received a booster or 3rd dose of a COVID-19 vaccine compared to individuals that are unvaccinated or have received one or two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.
Age-standardised is likely to be the key adjective behind discrepancies – we already know that older people are more likely to die from Covid than younger people, and that's shown as true in Scotland by toggling the data presented on Scotland's data dashboards. Under 60s had fewer deaths than 60+ at all waves of the pandemic, and of those 60+, 85+ were disproportionately represented.
The charts and commentary on pages 31-33 are also age-standardised.
NZ Data seems clearer to me as the table under the "Vaccination details" heading shows pretty clearly that vaccination has an impact on hospitalisation rates since Delta arrived here (so these figures don't include the 2020 outbreaks). To quote the table and add percentages:
No doses received prior to being reported as a case: 9806 cases; 515 hospitalisations (5.25%)
No age-standardisation here, just raw data, and it clearly shows vaccination has kept people out of hospital compared to less or no vaccination.
The table under "COVID-19 cases by age group" also shows how much impact age has on probability of death. Of the 23 90+ year olds who have previously had Covid and no longer do, 15 recovered and 8 died. Of the 105 aged 80-89, 93 recovered and 12 died.
So you're counting partially vaccinated as "vaccinated"? Bold move when folks are talking about cherry-picked data.
My guess is that TD's 87% comes from march 2020. Or some collation of data similar to your apparent "1 jab grouped with booster numbers when counting covid dead" move.
Basically, Craig is correct about the standardisation. There are a lot of biases in who got vaccinated how much and when: age, access to primary healthcare and vaccinations, single dose waning vaccinations too early for omicron, and so on. Then there's the regular statistical fluctuation of smaller numbers and the cherry-picking that enables.
But when you look at who's more likely to die, unvaccinated are at the top of the list and fully vaccinated at the bottom.
That 18.5%: is it 18.5% of every agegroup from babies to geriatrics, or is it 30% of <25yo and 2% of everyone over 30?
I honestly can't be bothered trying to math it at this time of night, nic's already given you a link that shows you how to do the age-standardisation you should be doing if you actually want to get somewhere.
I don't think it can be done with the available data. You need the data categorised by both vaccination status and age group which I don't see provided anywhere.
Sorry, I completely didn't understand the point of this ongoing conversation. How long did you expect the distraction to last until he discovered the data he has is insufficient to reproduce the calculations.
The age standardisation process is another way of resolving the Simpson's paradox in the data (which is why all Hamish raw overall rates are so different and miss-leading). It however results in only one value, rather than a value for each age group. Its result represents a hypothetical population of 100,000 with a standard european age range who are all of one category (e.g vaccinated, partially vaccinated, unvaccinated).
Was moderately interested to see how long it would take, and whether there was a workaround available (vaccination by age graph with an age pyramid from another source).
But also, the dude is at least trying, so figured a bit more commentary as they progressed through the process might be more kind than waiting for them to deliver something that has a jundamental flaw from the start.
And I get the point of standardisation, I just always seem to screw up the coding the first iteration or two. My pool of coding ability is small, and somewhat brackish.
Pinus Radiata should be banned from the ETS Trading Scheme ?
Of course they should be they are basically a low value weed which is causing havoc in the South Island and across the East Coast of New Zealand.
Typical of NZ's Bureauocratic Monocultural Thinking, our Forestry Research people here in NZ should go to countries like Japan and have a look at how to plan and plant alternative high value species.
NZ Dairy Industry and Milk Powder is a classic example of NZ's incompetence when it comes to long term planning and strategic thinking.
,,,, also a proper assessment needs to be done from an environmental perspective, just look at the mess Industrial Dairying has created on the Canterbury Plains, the Selwyn River is basically a sewer for the Canterbury Dairy Industry. Also Pinus Radiata on the East Coast has caused chaos for the local tangata whenua and radiata pine ETS Scheme is sucking up good agricultural pastoral land to grow flipping weeds for Absentee Offshore Investors.
By doing what? The government has no palatable way of controlling outward flows of Kiwis, so how can they forecast it in a pandemic? And if they can't forecast that, how can they forecast net migration?
Firstly the government can indeed control outward flows, however even if that is deemed inappropriate (or politically unpalatable) there is the option of balancing inflows with outflows, but as the article laments that would require a population policy of which there remains no sign of….and so we will 'cross our fingers' and revert to type, with the continuation of the problems we have created for ourselves to date.
Einstein is famously misattributed with comment on such.
It is entirely possible that our recent Governments have had de facto population policies but not one they felt confident expressing publicly.
Largely closing the borders has been seen as legal during a pandemic, but in normal times, Kiwis have wide freedom of movement, particularly to Australia, no restrictions on leaving, and a legally-enshrined right to return (both NZ and international law).
We could withdraw from the TTTA and/or just ban NZ citizens from leaving, but both of those would be extremely unpopular (as in, unelectable-for-a-generation unpopular), and bans essentially unenforceable without blocking all travel outwards of citizens (otherwise people would just "change their minds" after departing). Banning non-citizens from leaving, even if they are NZ residents, seems likely to result in sanctions.
However, if you have some other options for controlling outward flows, let's hear them.
For most of the past 60 years we generally attempted to balance outward flows with inward flows over time (Stats NZ info) – recurring high net migration only really became a feature of part of the 2010s.
"For most of the past 60 years we generally attempted to balance outward flows with inward flows over time (Stats NZ info) – recurring high net migration only really became a feature of part of the 2010s"
Im afraid not….we abandoned any attempt to balance flows some 30 years ago…go and have a look at the stats.
There was massive negative net migration in the latter halves of the 1970s and 1980s, so for the 30 years from 1962-1992, NZ saw cumulative negative net migration – it didn't flip to positive (i.e. more people coming than going) until 1995, and got pretty close to 0 again by 2000 after another run of negative net migration 1998-2000.
There was quite a spike 2001-2003, but individual years flattened again (between 0.24%-0.42% of the population in 2004-2009), were negative in 2010-2012, and total net migration from 1962-2012 was 210,713 (the spike in 2001-03 accounts for 132,472 or 62.9% of that). The total net migration from 1962-2020 is 610,401 i.e. nearly 400,000 from 2013-2020, or 65.5% of the cumulative net migration since 1962.
and even 2020/2021 with closed borders has seen a net gain of 85,800
There is a clear pattern, 30 years ago we abandoned any attempt to balance migration and have been increasing those flows ever since (diminishing returns?)…..and that is irrespective of party in power, though it appears the Nats really upped the ante in 2013/2014 and Labour have continued it despite the rhetoric.
Migration generally and net migration specifically have been brought up as election issues by NZ First since their foundation, with limited traction other than as an infrastructure and housing issue, so there has been some visibility of it in the lead-up to elections. When housing wasn't an issue, very few seem to have cared.
Partisan hacks block an investigation into a conspiracy theory. Surely not?
/
Posted on March 3, 2022
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Federal Election Commission (FEC) has released records revealing how partisan deadlock blocked its investigation into potential coordination between former President Trump’s 2016 election campaign and the Russian Federation.
The FEC’s nonpartisan professional career staff in its General Counsel’s office recommended that the FEC find “reason to believe” that the Trump campaign violated the Federal Election Campaign Act (“the Act”) by coordinating with the Russian government, and soliciting and receiving illegal in-kind donations from the Russian government. This misconduct included soliciting Russian assistance in hacking and disclosing emails associated with Trump’s political opponents, as well as soliciting hacked documents from WikiLeaks and sharing internal polling data with a Russian intelligence officer working with factions aiming to move Ukraine into the Russian orbit. The staff also recommended finding reason to believe that the Russian government itself violated the Act, by engaging in an illegal influence campaign in the 2016 election, failing to disclose the money spent on that campaign, and making prohibited in-kind contributions to the Trump campaign, including expending resources to hack Clinton-related servers at Trump’s request. But the FEC split 3-3 on the staff recommendation, and thus blocked the investigation from proceeding.
Russians have reportedly set the largest nuclear power station on fire, just to illustrate how stupid they are strong westerly winds are forecast for the next week. Go to http://www.windy.com
Well done to all involved ..obviously not the story the suits the MSM and Liberal commentators and politicians ..these sorts of protests never are…but hats off to you and the Union.
Its some outside building used for training not within the actual plant not the reactors. Its more likely the Ukrainians as the Russians had control a few days back
The small town of Enerhodar is contiguous with the reactor site and includes a coal power station
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Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary Sacks, Professor of Public Health Policy, Deakin University Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock In recent years, there’s been increasinghype about the potential health risks associated with so-called “ultra-processed” foods. But new evidence published this week found not all “ultra-processed” foods are linked ...
Fears that New Zealand is relying too heavily on low-cost forests to absorb its carbon dioxide emissions have been reignited by a report from the OECD. ...
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed the total dollar savings target from public sector cuts has been met, but the reductions have not been felt evenly across public agencies. Government departments were told to make savings set at 6.5 percent or 7.5 percent where headcount had grown by more than ...
She doesn’t have a single kind word for me and it’s getting under my skin.Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nzDear Hera,I have two amazing friends that I absolutely adore. Grace (all names have been changed) and I lived together across 2023 and Olivia moved in with us this ...
Can Western science and Māori science work together to support our well-being? The Te Ohu Mō Papatūānuku (TOMP) Trials Project was a landmark case for healing the land and people with the guidance of Māori science and leadership. This is what happened when Papatūānuku (Earth) was contaminated by toxic discharge, ...
The District Plan is a blueprint for a bigger, better Wellington, through tens of thousands of new apartments and townhouses and a new approach to urban growth. Joel MacManus lays out the vision. The process of putting together Wellington’s new District Plan has been long and excruciating. As a city, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leah Williams Veazey, ARC DECRA Research Fellow, University of Sydney DavideAngelini/Shutterstock In the 2007 film The Bucket List Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman play two main characters who respond to their terminal cancer diagnoses by rejecting experimental treatment. Instead, they go ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohan Singh, Professor of Agri-Food Biotechnology, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences at the University of Melbourne., The University of Melbourne Tanja Esser/Shutterstock Australia’s vital agriculture sector will be hit hard by steadily rising global temperatures. Our climate is already ...
The Acumen Edelman Trust barometer reported that New Zealand’s political trust score now sits below the global average, a topic explored in a recent discussion paper by Maxim Institute. ...
Greenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman says, "The Fast-Track Bill is the most damaging piece of environmental legislation any Government has introduced in living memory. People are angry, and it’s time to march." ...
The school lunches programme has been retained – and will be extended to some preschoolers. So how is it going to cost $107 million less? To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. The minister with many hats David Seymour wears a number of hats, but this week ...
“Show us the bird,” I found myself muttering at times while reading Hard by the Cloud House by Peter Walker, a deeply thoughtful, often hilarious, at times rambling – but somehow delightfully so – search for the story of a big bird. But not just any bird: the bird. This ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition DPVUE .images/Shutterstock Your home was probably designed for a climate that no longer exists. As long as humanity continues to burn fossil fuel, padding the heat-trapping blanket of gases in Earth’s atmosphere, the ...
A senior lawyer has filed a complaint about tikanga becoming a required law school module. Law lecturer Carwyn Jones explains what he’s getting wrong. “…the first law of Aotearoa, a law that served the needs of tangata whenua for a thousand years before the arrival of tauiwi.”– Ani Mikaere ...
In 2019, an Auckland woman woke up from surgery to find that she had undergone a treatment she didn’t consent to. She tells Alex Casey about her experience. From her very first period at the age of 14, Laura experienced “debilitating” levels of pain that forced her to withdraw from ...
Comment: Concerns about the state of the economy are creeping up to the top of firms’ list of challenges. That’s evident in both surveys and the tone of our recent client discussions. Skimming the past few weeks of eco-news, it’s not hard to see why. – Retail card spending fell ...
Opinion: Could former co-leader James Shaw still make a difference to working with National? The post How the Greens could be contenders appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Opinion: What if we got rid of our existing drug laws and replaced them with a new law that legalised and carefully regulated all psychoactive substances, from cannabis to MDMA, methamphetamine and LSD to magic mushrooms? And which also included legal drugs such as alcohol and nicotine. “Wow,” you might ...
In the gloom following director-general Al Morrison’s job cuts in 2013, the Department of Conservation restructured its operations arm. Eleven conservancy districts were whittled into six new “conservation delivery” regions, under which the Rēkohu/Wharekauri/Chatham Islands area, comprising 40 scattered islands more than 800km east of Christchurch, was tethered to the ...
One of th e country’s top litigation lawyers says New Zealand is seeing a lift in court action between companies. Chapman Tripp partner Justin Graham, who oversees a team of around 80 litigation specialists, says the courts are now so log-jammed that it’s taking over two years to get cases ...
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question?Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 9 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government is talking up the crucial role of gas as a transition fuel “through to 2050 and beyond”. In a gas strategy to be released on Thursday, the government envisages the fuel’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Next week the government will again next try to get its legislation through to deal with non-citizens who won’t cooperate with efforts to deport them. The bill, which the opposition and crossbench refused to rush ...
A long-term project that will set out an alternative vision for Aotearoa that looks beyond the narrow confines of the policy straight jacket adopted by successive governments. ...
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The Minister Responsible for GCSB and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security have been notified of this review, and have been provided a finalised Terms of Reference. ...
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Welcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Jane Arthur, author of Brown Bird, and former bookseller at Good Books.The book I wish I’d writtenI have been working on not comparing myself to others. On accepting that what I can ...
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With funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...
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Not good.
https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1499415691744923648?s=20&t=S-ToOku12jiiX0wbgNhDKg
The twitter #GoHome hashtag takes on a new meaning.
Definitely sounds as if Putin is suffering from steroid addiction and is not in a sound state of mind. Good Morning Vietnam.
God he's embarrassing, such a loser !
Maybe they can get Donald Trump in to be the Great Mediator. Apparently he gets on really well with Putin. He's told the world that so often
He is on such good terms he even had a meeting with Putin, no officials, just an interpreter. No notes.
And his knowledge of Ukraine? He is the original quid pro quo master and knows how to get a deal done there. Perfect phone calls and all that.
And he would see it as the golden path to a Noble Piece Prize.
That's actually a pretty good idea.
Could work for Putin too.
It would probably put Trump back in the Whitehouse if he didn't get terminated.
Evidently Donald didn't even know where the Ukraine was according to one of his colleagues ?
Sean Phelan is an Associate Professor of Communication at Massey University. He discusses the concept of legitimate criticism here: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/on-the-inside/462677/why-legitimate-criticism-of-mainstream-media-is-in-danger-of-being-hijacked-by-anti-vax-and-freedom-movements
But Sean, left-right boundaries have been blurred here for almost 40 years. The guilty party was Labour. Have you forgotten already?? Or are you some kind of foreign invader ignorant of Aotearoa's political history?
Most people are binary, so will be unable to perceive nuances offered by non-binary contributors. And Sean, democracy is controlled by this majority, so impoverishment is inevitable, right? Do try to use your brain.
Surely it's obvious that democracy was set up to institutionalise a binary structure to politics. Nat/Lab sheeple will always head through those two gates. The social science research reported a couple of weeks back found that the largest political grouping within the parliament protest was those who voted Labour at the last election. Betrayal by Labour in govt roused that rabble…
I noticed a few odd things in the tables in the Scottish COVID data so popped it into a spread sheet.
.https://publichealthscotland.scot/media/11089/22-01-12-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf
One thing that popped out is at odds with what Tricledrown said
.https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-02-03-2022/#comment-1870493
But in my spreadsheet it shows up as only 15% of all deaths in the period 18 Dcc to 4 Feb (93 death in the un vaccinated vs 539 in vaccinated )
And the un vaccinated were 20% of the population.
Still checking for my typos, but there are some wierd things showing up..
To quote pg28 of the report:
Age-standardised is likely to be the key adjective behind discrepancies – we already know that older people are more likely to die from Covid than younger people, and that's shown as true in Scotland by toggling the data presented on Scotland's data dashboards. Under 60s had fewer deaths than 60+ at all waves of the pandemic, and of those 60+, 85+ were disproportionately represented.
The charts and commentary on pages 31-33 are also age-standardised.
NZ Data seems clearer to me as the table under the "Vaccination details" heading shows pretty clearly that vaccination has an impact on hospitalisation rates since Delta arrived here (so these figures don't include the 2020 outbreaks). To quote the table and add percentages:
No doses received prior to being reported as a case: 9806 cases; 515 hospitalisations (5.25%)
Partially vaccinated: 3971 cases; 142 hospitalisations (3.58%)
Fully vaccinated at least 7 days before reported as a case: 86673 cases; 511 hospitalisations (0.59%)
Received booster at least 7 days before being reported as a case: 38713 cases; 144 hospitalisations (0.37%)
Not eligible for vaccination at the time they were reported as a case: 21754 cases; 115 hospitalisations (0.53%)
Total: 160917 cases; 1427 hospitalisations (0.89%)
No age-standardisation here, just raw data, and it clearly shows vaccination has kept people out of hospital compared to less or no vaccination.
The table under "COVID-19 cases by age group" also shows how much impact age has on probability of death. Of the 23 90+ year olds who have previously had Covid and no longer do, 15 recovered and 8 died. Of the 105 aged 80-89, 93 recovered and 12 died.
Still yet to do data entry check, but on thing that is odd ( unless it is a cause by my typos is the age standardisation.
With a cursory glance the "age adjustment multiplier" week to week goes
4.03 2.83 6.09 in one category, but in an adjacent one for the same weeks goes
0.97 1.01 1.00
"age adjustment multiplier" is my term for what I have to multiply the raw numbers by to get the their adjusted numbers.
Again only just begun, and have to spend more time "reverse engineering" what they did.
Will do a follow up once I have nutted out the kinks as best I can.
Is a fun puzzle to do as a break.
Will be interesting to put the NZ data beside it
Thanks for the link
Where are you getting the age cohort + vaccination status data for Scotland?
Long story short, if you don't have this you can't possibly re-produce the calculations. The formula is given here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/methodologies/weeklycovid19agestandardisedmortalityratesbyvaccinationstatusenglandmethodology#age-standardised-mortality-rates
One weird thing is how you managed to get February's mortality number from a link published in January.
My bad…
Data in my spreadsheet is from 2 reports.
I failed to put the second link in
.https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/11763/22-02-16-covid19-winter_publication_report.pdf
So you're counting partially vaccinated as "vaccinated"? Bold move when folks are talking about cherry-picked data.
My guess is that TD's 87% comes from march 2020. Or some collation of data similar to your apparent "1 jab grouped with booster numbers when counting covid dead" move.
Basically, Craig is correct about the standardisation. There are a lot of biases in who got vaccinated how much and when: age, access to primary healthcare and vaccinations, single dose waning vaccinations too early for omicron, and so on. Then there's the regular statistical fluctuation of smaller numbers and the cherry-picking that enables.
But when you look at who's more likely to die, unvaccinated are at the top of the list and fully vaccinated at the bottom.
My preference would to have split split things apart further, with categories of "in transition", as they do not fit quite in either group.
Have not had a chance to check my data entry yet..
They literally supply the age-standardised rates right there in the same table
Still not done data check yet, but re did with 1 shot lumped in with unvaxed
Deaths
14.7% from 18.5% of population (un vaccinated only)
18.8% from 26.1% of population ( 1 shot in with the un vaccinated
That 18.5%: is it 18.5% of every agegroup from babies to geriatrics, or is it 30% of <25yo and 2% of everyone over 30?
I honestly can't be bothered trying to math it at this time of night, nic's already given you a link that shows you how to do the age-standardisation you should be doing if you actually want to get somewhere.
I don't think it can be done with the available data. You need the data categorised by both vaccination status and age group which I don't see provided anywhere.
Even if it were, it would simply be to replicate the age-standardised rates already included in the report.
Still, keeps hamish off the streets, I guess.
Standardisation always confuses the hell out of me – don't tell the boss lol
Sorry, I completely didn't understand the point of this ongoing conversation. How long did you expect the distraction to last until he discovered the data he has is insufficient to reproduce the calculations.
The age standardisation process is another way of resolving the Simpson's paradox in the data (which is why all Hamish raw overall rates are so different and miss-leading). It however results in only one value, rather than a value for each age group. Its result represents a hypothetical population of 100,000 with a standard european age range who are all of one category (e.g vaccinated, partially vaccinated, unvaccinated).
Was moderately interested to see how long it would take, and whether there was a workaround available (vaccination by age graph with an age pyramid from another source).
But also, the dude is at least trying, so figured a bit more commentary as they progressed through the process might be more kind than waiting for them to deliver something that has a jundamental flaw from the start.
And I get the point of standardisation, I just always seem to screw up the coding the first iteration or two. My pool of coding ability is small, and somewhat brackish.
Pinus Radiata should be banned from the ETS Trading Scheme ?
Of course they should be they are basically a low value weed which is causing havoc in the South Island and across the East Coast of New Zealand.
Typical of NZ's Bureauocratic Monocultural Thinking, our Forestry Research people here in NZ should go to countries like Japan and have a look at how to plan and plant alternative high value species.
NZ Dairy Industry and Milk Powder is a classic example of NZ's incompetence when it comes to long term planning and strategic thinking.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/127946385/government-proposes-banning-pine-carbon-farms-from-the-ets
,,,, also a proper assessment needs to be done from an environmental perspective, just look at the mess Industrial Dairying has created on the Canterbury Plains, the Selwyn River is basically a sewer for the Canterbury Dairy Industry. Also Pinus Radiata on the East Coast has caused chaos for the local tangata whenua and radiata pine ETS Scheme is sucking up good agricultural pastoral land to grow flipping weeds for Absentee Offshore Investors.
have you ever been to Gisborne -East Coast inland areas. They mostly arent suitable land for pastoral farming, prone to slips and with poor soils
"Either way, we should as a country to be ready. I fear that we aren't.
We've had two years of closed borders that have given us time to prepare for the reopening.
But when it comes to it all that's happening is that we are opening the doors and hoping for the best.
So, fingers crossed. And, no, 'fingers crossed' is not a strategy. But it's what we've been left with in the absence of a strategy."
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/114623/whether-country-sees-return-large-numbers-inbound-migrants-or-whether-there-will-be
By doing what? The government has no palatable way of controlling outward flows of Kiwis, so how can they forecast it in a pandemic? And if they can't forecast that, how can they forecast net migration?
Firstly the government can indeed control outward flows, however even if that is deemed inappropriate (or politically unpalatable) there is the option of balancing inflows with outflows, but as the article laments that would require a population policy of which there remains no sign of….and so we will 'cross our fingers' and revert to type, with the continuation of the problems we have created for ourselves to date.
Einstein is famously misattributed with comment on such.
It is entirely possible that our recent Governments have had de facto population policies but not one they felt confident expressing publicly.
Largely closing the borders has been seen as legal during a pandemic, but in normal times, Kiwis have wide freedom of movement, particularly to Australia, no restrictions on leaving, and a legally-enshrined right to return (both NZ and international law).
We could withdraw from the TTTA and/or just ban NZ citizens from leaving, but both of those would be extremely unpopular (as in, unelectable-for-a-generation unpopular), and bans essentially unenforceable without blocking all travel outwards of citizens (otherwise people would just "change their minds" after departing). Banning non-citizens from leaving, even if they are NZ residents, seems likely to result in sanctions.
However, if you have some other options for controlling outward flows, let's hear them.
For most of the past 60 years we generally attempted to balance outward flows with inward flows over time (Stats NZ info) – recurring high net migration only really became a feature of part of the 2010s.
"For most of the past 60 years we generally attempted to balance outward flows with inward flows over time (Stats NZ info) – recurring high net migration only really became a feature of part of the 2010s"
Im afraid not….we abandoned any attempt to balance flows some 30 years ago…go and have a look at the stats.
There was massive negative net migration in the latter halves of the 1970s and 1980s, so for the 30 years from 1962-1992, NZ saw cumulative negative net migration – it didn't flip to positive (i.e. more people coming than going) until 1995, and got pretty close to 0 again by 2000 after another run of negative net migration 1998-2000.
There was quite a spike 2001-2003, but individual years flattened again (between 0.24%-0.42% of the population in 2004-2009), were negative in 2010-2012, and total net migration from 1962-2012 was 210,713 (the spike in 2001-03 accounts for 132,472 or 62.9% of that). The total net migration from 1962-2020 is 610,401 i.e. nearly 400,000 from 2013-2020, or 65.5% of the cumulative net migration since 1962.
1961-1969
net gain 63,300. 7/9 years positive
1970-1979
net gain 1,900. 5/10 positive years
1980-1989
net loss 48,400. 4/10 positive years
1990-1999
net gain 118,700. 9/10 positive years
2000-2009
net gain 103,500. 8/10 positive years
2010-2019
net gain 327,200. 9/10 positive years
and even 2020/2021 with closed borders has seen a net gain of 85,800
There is a clear pattern, 30 years ago we abandoned any attempt to balance migration and have been increasing those flows ever since (diminishing returns?)…..and that is irrespective of party in power, though it appears the Nats really upped the ante in 2013/2014 and Labour have continued it despite the rhetoric.
And did anyone (knowingly) vote for this?
Curiously there was a policy proposal from the NZIER in 2012
https://nzier.org.nz/static/media/filer_public/22/52/225276fb-3492-4773-99b0-66424ccb0b7e/wp2012-01_grow_for_it.pdf
Migration generally and net migration specifically have been brought up as election issues by NZ First since their foundation, with limited traction other than as an infrastructure and housing issue, so there has been some visibility of it in the lead-up to elections. When housing wasn't an issue, very few seem to have cared.
Looks like Putin is definitely escalating this Crisis, pure evil IMHO.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300532234/ukraine-live-russian-troops-shelling-nuclear-power-station-reports
The site includes the nuclear reactors , a large coal fueled power station and a small town for the employees
Partisan hacks block an investigation into a conspiracy theory. Surely not?
/
Posted on March 3, 2022
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Federal Election Commission (FEC) has released records revealing how partisan deadlock blocked its investigation into potential coordination between former President Trump’s 2016 election campaign and the Russian Federation.
The FEC’s nonpartisan professional career staff in its General Counsel’s office recommended that the FEC find “reason to believe” that the Trump campaign violated the Federal Election Campaign Act (“the Act”) by coordinating with the Russian government, and soliciting and receiving illegal in-kind donations from the Russian government. This misconduct included soliciting Russian assistance in hacking and disclosing emails associated with Trump’s political opponents, as well as soliciting hacked documents from WikiLeaks and sharing internal polling data with a Russian intelligence officer working with factions aiming to move Ukraine into the Russian orbit. The staff also recommended finding reason to believe that the Russian government itself violated the Act, by engaging in an illegal influence campaign in the 2016 election, failing to disclose the money spent on that campaign, and making prohibited in-kind contributions to the Trump campaign, including expending resources to hack Clinton-related servers at Trump’s request. But the FEC split 3-3 on the staff recommendation, and thus blocked the investigation from proceeding.
https://freespeechforpeople.org/in-a-split-decision-the-fec-overrules-career-staff-and-refuses-to-investigate-coordination-between-the-russian-government-and-donald-trumps-2016-campaign/
Russians have reportedly set the largest nuclear power station on fire, just to illustrate how stupid they are strong westerly winds are forecast for the next week. Go to http://www.windy.com
AH the good old game of "chicken"
WW3 incoming?
Sobriety, hmm I may need a rethink lol.
Barfly I appreciate your thoughts and quips. No Vodka today!!
Cracking along at @9000m.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=46.6;44.5;3&l=wind-300hpa
The Protest we should be talking about…
"CHEP Workers Win New Agreement After Weeks On The Picket Line"
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO2203/S00050/chep-workers-win-new-agreement-after-weeks-on-the-picket-line.htm
Well done to all involved ..obviously not the story the suits the MSM and Liberal commentators and politicians ..these sorts of protests never are…but hats off to you and the Union.
Wonderful!! Workers are starting to understand and use the legislation Andrew Little championed.
Fuck me the Russians are shelling the Nuclear power station, it's caught fire…
Does Putin want to win or just implement a scorched earth policy on the Ukraine ? Such action is so chilling.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/russia-ukraine-war-europes-largest-nuclear-power-plant-on-fire-after-shelling/RB3N4SM2634HYU4MPQSLAHE6GA/
Its some outside building used for training not within the actual plant not the reactors. Its more likely the Ukrainians as the Russians had control a few days back
The small town of Enerhodar is contiguous with the reactor site and includes a coal power station
Phew! That’s a big relief. I thought I could smell the uranium in the air already.