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6:00 am, October 13th, 2020 - 96 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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I see that Greens candidate Ricardo Menéndez March has started coalition negotiations on Twitter with respect to the wealth tax. It might be a good idea if he shut for a bit and let his leadership do what they have to do to get the the party over the line on Saturday. Otherwise there will be no coalition negotiations period.
Difficult to fault National and Act for concentrating on this issue when the Greens keep raising it like this.
And another day labour say it's not happening and everyone thinks national look totally desperate, pinning the slimmest of hopes their final minute hail mary pass is caught by dullards who can't think for themselves.
There are traps set, and there are natural hazards. National aren’t capable of getting through either.
That does not alter the fact that the Greens keep raising it. What would your response be if the boot was on the other foot?
Scott's sentiments/fears and his wish that Richardo etc would shut up are well founded.
Err, that's what political parties do in election campaigns, push and promote their policies – And why should they not? Especially if by doing so it gives labour a free hit at the dopey nats who keep trying to push the same shit up the hill to nowhereville.
I think the advice the right are giving is lie about your intentions, and then once in power bring out the slippery stuff, ie what political parties have been doing forever. The Greens are telling us what they want to do, us as voters can choose to vote for that, or not. I party voted Greens.
Yeah Alan, if you think distorting the amounts involved and putting out a maybe, could be etc is the kind of party you want to vote for.
But I am glad for you that you can find one thing Nats and Act have done right. Mostly the Nats have been,, dare I say it a shambles. In fact a complete shambles.
Act being completely opportunist again trying to get the gun vote…………I guess that has worked for them to an extent. But what a thing to try and win votes on. Right to more sophisticated guns. Fuck
Pressure on this has succeeded in Jacinda ruling it out completely effectively shutting the door on a key GP policy before coalition negotiations start… some would regard that as a success.
It's the baby bird syndrome. All the nestlings know is to watch for the parent bird with the food and their mouths open wide and are lined with yellow so the feeder can't miss the target with the gobstopper. All the fervent workers in the poverty stratum of need of money, goods, homes and livings, know there is great need and can't shut up even when it would be strategic to do so, or adopt another approach.
He's an out-there leftist doing his thing. Can't expect such folk to see the big picture even, let alone be sensible. Young, keen & naive is all that matters…
Are we supposed to trust in the 'Little Father', or mother in this case, who knows and loves us, secretly. The Left are rationalists not superstitionists. Trying to discern the hearts of the blessed Grant and the holy Jacinda is not in my playbook nor should it ever be for demo-crats.
A political party pushing their policies, before an election.
How strange!
ScottGN – I've been uneasy for some time watching March use AAAP as a blunt weapon against WINZ this last year. AAAP used to provide great advocacy for clients but over recent months it has become a political vehicle for March. He will lose the Greens votes if he continues on this journey.
I may be wrong . This morning on my Facebook is a DENISE LEE add saying she will spend $6.2 billion on Onehunga transport, Google tells me Auckland will spend $1.42 billion something doest sound right. national also gets a mention.
She must be another one of them leftists Dennis gnosis all about.
The next nexus of gnosis and praxis will be instantiated through the problematising of left-right discontinuities.
That was glorious. I expect to see it appropriated as a corporate mission statement in the near future.
Some good articles on Newsroom today, including an insight into on-the-ground campaigning in Manurewa (should be read by anyone who thinks elections are won in armchairs!).
And the news that Collins has been endorsed by … Todd Barclay. That sums up National's mess.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/election-2020/good-day-bad-day-monday
In his capacity as …?
China is saying no to Ozzie coal. This will shake things up.
8 billion(NZ) a month in lost FX is going to hurt
ScoMo will be frothing at the mouth.
wonder if the mob he had to run from were Queensland miners
China using its position as a main buyer to force things to their liking – again.
Trade with China is not free – it comes with many hidden hooks and bindings.
Jacinda has shown paranoia and a serious lack of judgement in refusing to discuss the Wealth Tax (or any Wealth Tax option) with the Greens in coalition negotiations. So much for transformation, alleviating poverty and a fairer NZ.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/428115/ruling-out-conversation-on-wealth-tax-not-credible-shaw
Hey Alien, see what I mean?
The membership of the Green Party seem to think that the wealth tax is a brilliant idea and the membership makes the decisions right??
I think it's a good policy too (party voted green), but I accept that some in labour and the wider electorate don't, so it's been ruled out as a policy too far.
The crux of the matter comes down to what I view as the issue of the campaign. A couple of days ago there's a media bit from Collins saying about the PM "I don't believe a word she says" and then another from her urging us to believe her when she says "you can trust me". Clearly at 47% in the polls, the people are rejecting Judith.
So again, for the nats to keep putting it front and centre, when people hear Jacinda say no, then it smacks of desperation and must be counter productive.
Maybe the greens could go for referendum on tax next election as a coalition bottom line .
3 options
Keep tinkering .
A comprehensive cgt.
A wealth tax.
Or labour could grow a pair and actually address tax reform to end poverty and create a fairer society, but I know that won't happen when the policies needed are unpopular with voters, even though their best interests in the long term, and not many governments wilfully choose to vote themselves out.
No need for a tax referendum, the argument just needs to be won in the wider public, so it's not a bottom line in future negotiations but a minimum standard adopted by both leftish parties.
At the risk of seeming vaguely Marxist, I see it as a class issue. Simple: middle class has wealth to pass on to children, lower class doesn't.
I agree with the wealth tax as a semi-plausible method of reducing wealth inequality. Laudable, but history will pronounce a verdict on saturday. That verdict may turn out to be that it was mere virtue-signalling.
If those for whom the Greens policy wonks designed the policy to benefit refuse to actually vote for it, then nobody will be able to claim that it worked as intended, eh?
Politically-correct Greens, operating on auto-pilot as usual with tiny brains disengaged, will flounder around in search of some feeble excuse for failure. Other Greens will get real. The upshot will be that the Greens will have to re-evaluate their raison d'être.
If they still want to bridge middle & lower classes via policy, they will only survive via more sophisticated marketing of that policy!!
Do you think it is possible that the Greens develop policy that is right to do rather than to buy votes?
The Greens say that they use consensus to make policy decisions and yet, despite being a Green Party member, I've never been asked if I support any policies before they become policy.
Are you on the mailing lists.
Draft policies are open to all members for comment and input.
Yes, and I have put in such input. But, at no point, have I been asked to vote for the final policy.
The only way tax would do that is if PAYE went back to a high tax rate of 70% or more. High enough to effectively instituting a maximum income.
Actually, I think a maximum income would probably be quite popular with the majority of people. Unfortunately, the way things are, they're not the ones that are going to get a say in it.
But a referendum does have the benefit of finding out what the majority of people actually want and not just of those who have the resources to make a lot of noise.
PAYE does not redistribute capital. That is the beauty of a Wealth Tax.
I tend to be in favour of a wealth tax. Done properly nobody would be able to afford to own excessive amounts.
Of course, that would get the bludgers truly whinging.
I'm not overly worried about wealth vs cgt vs ftt, I just think that the people who have benefitted the most from the system should pay proportionately more for their disproportionate good fortune.
…or Land Tax?
Yeah. They're all different ways of skinning the same fat cat.
4th option: Design a completely new tax system from the ground up.
5th option tax interest received at 99%
This is my preference, my current thinking is to get rid all the tax credit systems working for families etc etc.
Change the tax codes so that they work on a tax free threshold basis.
Ie Single Parent couple of kids your tax free threshold might be say 50k so you can earn what you can without worrying about abatements etc etc
All benefits ie unemployment would be tax free and earning income on his would be fine up till you reached your tax free threshold. Again making it viable for someone to find some work and not worry about abatements etc.
A single professional might only have a tax free threshold of only $5000.
Change the tax bands adding higher rates.
Reduce gst, enact a very broad but low rate cgt, look at a tax to discourage land banking and tax off shore holdings.
Inheritance tax should he on the table as well.
I too think it is a referendum matter.
Or perhaps Jacinda is just doing what anyone with a bare minimum of political nous would do.
Jacinda is only doing what she has to to counter Judith's lying dogwhistle.
Wrong Mikesh-all she had to say was that during coalition discussions when a WT was raised it would be a Labour party bottom line that there would be no WT.
Having done two large dinner parties in two days among the old and wealthy of Dunedin in 3 days, they can hold their nose and vote Labour, but not if it comes with a Green Party tax. They simply don't believe the Greens understand how to hand wealth down through to your children. This is the haute-bourgeoisie in our most left-leaning cities.
We need to see the next Associate Finance and Minister of Revenue Ministers generate some think pieces for Cabinet on this, pronto. Whoever gets in.
Ardern hsimply must spend some of her ginormous political capital – Key failed to do so and she's smarter than him.
Ad-agreed re the political capital…..in the long-term people will see this as a principled approach
The problem they have isn't that the Greens don't know about inter-generational power, the Greens understand it too well, and how harmful it can be.
Dunedin being a case in point – far too long locked down by a cadre of unimaginative families seeking to preserve their personal wealth and businesses.
As I heard it Key didn't spend his political capital to put things right, Right-wise, because he understood his support was based on specifically not going Douglas/ Richardson.
Jacinda and Grant are cautious to their bones and probably don't believe to begin with, all nurtured in the norts Labour environment.
Still a little resentful at Grant, trying to establish his Left credentials in the Pub political programme, saying all the right shit and turning out just as we expected.
If 'paranoia' is now to be applied to that situation I presume there is a pandemic of paranoia about that just hasn't been called that.
It's good rhetoric the Greens have a point of difference so it's up to the Greens to gain enough seats to put their policies into action.
yes, time for the greens to stop phucking around and nail down an electorate seat, get a fulltime seat at the top table.
edit
Who or what can anyone trust in NZ? We must retain our present government as only with them can we hope to turn NZ around to be responsive to reality and need, rather than the speculators and those deep in comfy chairs, or bent on furthering the interests available to the wealthy.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428209/parents-say-trust-for-the-disabled-was-deliberately-run-down
…The Laura Fergusson Rehabilitation in Greenlane closed in August, with its board blaming financial problems.
Now the Charities Services is investigating complaints about the way it has been run.
For 27 years, Josephine Cliff's son lived at Laura Fergusson.
She says over the last five years, she witnessed the decline of services for residents like her son.
"The maintenance, I mean just never appeared to be done. There was sort of rotten walls, buildings. My son's door fell off, a sort of french door thing just collapsed. There was no maintenance I could see going on at all," she said…
"I was told when I took my letter in by hand to the CEO, she actually came out and I said to her, I'd written a letter and here it is for the chairman of the board, wherever he hangs out now, and she said we were gagged, we were not allowed to speak to you because the Ministry of Health gagged us," she said.
The Ministry of Health denies it gagged the trust.
Cliff said when she eventually got a reply, it said the funding wasn't enough to continue, even though other providers are still operating, she said.
Former board member John Wolk, an amputee, has also used the organisation's services. He says when the closure was announced last year he was told a plan would be released early this year.
It does have the look of a hijack about it. I'm sure there's a perfectly innocent and reasonable explanation yadayadyada.
I didn't click on the story but Stuff has yet another story about National saying what Labour will do and won't do.
They don't talk so much about their own list of what they will do and not. Not talk much past spraying about the multi-billions they'll spend, no details, or imply the promises they make are already achieved.
Witness Lawrence Yule and Matt King.
It’s a scare campaign, plain and simple.
Very mean-while Julian Assange trial hamster wheel turns round.
https://diem25.org/solidarity-actions-for-julian-assange-belgium/
We must defend whistleblowers because they reveal what governments are doing ‘in the public interest’.
That seems a reasoned and correct statement.
https://thegrayzone.com/2020/10/12/julian-assange-trial-freedom-speech/
Editor’s note: Fidel Narváez served as Ecuador’s consul in the UK from 2010 until July 2018. He helped get Julian Assange political asylum, and regularly communicated with the WikiLeaks publisher when he was trapped in the London embassy. In a previous article for The Grayzone, Narváez debunked 40 media lies and distortions about Assange. In this piece, he summarizes the key points from the British extradition hearings against Assange in September 2020.
From No Right Turn a story from the USA worthy of a film like Bewster's Millions.* (A you couldn't make this shit up sort of theme.) https://norightturn.blogspot.com/2020/10/a-new-low-in-american-democracy.html
As for what happens to ballots deposited in these fake dropboxes, who knows? But it probably involves an incinerator, at least for all those voting Democrat.
* Brewster's Millions trailer
In series. (https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDDF75AF7D08771AF
I have never pretended to understand the US's electoral system, but isn't it a bit irrelevant when each side does dodgy shit, when the whole thing seems to be decided by Electoral College votes?
No the votes determine how the electoral college votes for a state. And the "dodgy shit" is pretty much republican – no false equivalence and blaming both sides.
Maybe it will be used to "prove" that ballot boxes are untrustworthy? Like a burglar complaining about burglary?
winwin for repugs.
If the votes in the illegal boxes are for them, then they get to argue "coup d'etat" when the votes are rejected en masse.
If the votes are for dems, then they're improperly returns and not counted.
They're not trying to win the election, they're trying to give their stacked scotus and their rambo-cosplay fringe an excuse to dispute the loss.
Bingo.
All of the recent (this century) instances of deliberate voter fraud and electoral fraud I've ever seen documented have been perpetrated by Repugs. So yeah, all this noise about voter fraud is them projecting again, and the reason they know it happens because they're the ones doing it.
Since we are having a election. There is much not to admire about the system in the USA but I am interested in their "town halls" that elected members run.
I have wondered if doing something similar in electorates here from both list and electorate MP's might be beneficial in that voters can make their views known , meet others of a like mind and give wider feedback rather than professional lobbying capturing the system.
The wealth tax will possibly cost the Greens 1 or 2 percent , it may even stop them from getting back in at all. the Greens don't seem to understand that political maxim of the "optics ". Yes a WT sounds good but the "öptics"of an 80 + year old recent widow being slugged with a huge bill for a modest house that just happens to be in a suburb that has rocketed and that she has lived in all her life is not very good "optics ". Bereft and Stressed Grieving Widow Forced Out Of Family Home stories are political suicide.
Jacinda knows that and that there are better ways to extract tax.
Adrian-the WT is a genuinely transformational policy that will shift wealth from the mega rich to the desperately poor. It will attract as many people to the Greens as it will lose.
I have said a couple times on TS that no policy is set in stone-the Greens could modify the WT to target the top 4% rather than the top 6%. This would make it more palatable to some people and it would still bring in plenty of revenue to alleviate poverty.
If the wealth tax thresholds aren't the hard priorities the Greens have made them out to be, but are negotiable, then it's political malpractice to have set them so low. Because so many people can see themselves hit by it, and considering the price of real estate, it kicks in at a level most people don't really consider "wealthy".
Which is one reason why Elizabeth Warren pitched her wealth tax at levels over $50 million, which would only affect 0.05% of US households. But even that attracted very few voters that weren't already with her.
most people don't really consider "wealthy"
Isn't it about time you came back down from Planet Key?
With 1 Mill being a median price I agree with Andre, You don't have to be living on Planet Key to be pushed into this Wealth Tax.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/122815218/median-auckland-house-price-tipped-to-hit-1-million-by-end-of-year
Good on Ms Ardern for ruling it out, and shame on Ms Collins for lying about it.
Criticism of the wealth tax certainly brings out the politics of inclusion and consideration of other views from Greens supporters here.
Red Blooded-The median house price in NZ was $675,000 in August 2020. This is why 94% of people are entirely unaffected by a WT.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2009/S00231/record-median-house-prices-for-half-of-nz-according-to-reinz-august-data.htm
Oops median is $685,000 they just said on RNZ-same difference
Thank you Bearded Git, my link was Auckland Medium prices. "Middle Class" (for want of a better term) who live in Auckland (not me, by the way) shouldn't be charged or punished for a mistake of Geography. I can only take your word for the 94% claim. Auckland's large population may or may not skew those figures.
No worries Red Blooded…btw it's what the Green policy says…6% are affected by WT….my 10 years as an accountant did the rest.
The other thing everyone seems to miss (on purpose?) is that as a couple the assets are split, so you can have net $2 million in assets and would pay no WT.
https://www.facebook.com/JamesShawMP/videos/689943011932880/
People happy to quietly take the geographic benefit of living in central Auckland through rampant house price inflation for decades, but as soon as a tiny fraction of that unearned wealth might be taxed they are being "punished". FFS. This is why inequality is going to continue to get worse over the next three years regardless of the outcome on Saturday. We are just voting on how much worse it will get.
"We are just voting on how much worse it will get."
Essentially, however even the RBNZ cannot keep a ponzi scheme solvent forever….it will end.
I understand what you're saying, but someone who's owned their home in Auckland for decades isn't taking any financial benefit, well not until they sell or die. Transformational Tax Changes just aren't that simple.
Yes, and you are allowed to pay the tax at that point.
they are…if the political will is there…its not
Final round of polling should be interesting.
While the odds are pretty heavily against it … I'm still not entirely ruling out NZF just managing to scrape over the 5% threshold. There are one or two sound reasons that no-one has adequately explored in analyses to date (in fact, hardly anyone's touched on them at even the most basic level).
Equally, the Greens are by no means a dead cert … odds are in their favour, but certainly not overwhelmingly so. In fact, as close as 60/40. (perhaps I’m stating the bleedin obvious there ?).
Final Polls should clarify.
(these points only slightly qualified by heavy advance voting … not least because fieldwork for the final polls has been taking place at the same time as bulk of early votes)
Latest UMR
https://twitter.com/henrycooke/status/1315857609161752576
That dope vote will bring the kids to the polls and get the Green Party over 5%.
Nah. They'll be too blazed or tending to their case of the munchies to go and vote.
For the whole pre-voting period ? Yeah…nah
Being stoned does not preclude you from voting, particularly when there is a reeferendum.
I love a bit of condescension and stereotyping on a Tuesday. A wonderfully talented and imaginative 20-year old relative of mine (doesn't drink, never touched dope) voted for the first time last week. And yes it was Green. So I'll take your stereotype and raise it with my anecdata.
So Act are not 11% ??? Probably not 7% either. LOL 29% +7?% = 36%
Millsy Relax!! Let's keep moving.. forward mate.
Hi Swordfish, how does that translate to seats?
If this anything to go on, Nelson could well turn red and dr custard will be no more.
Nick smith and his supporters were busy on the side of a main road, waving around signs, the problem was no one was tooting or waving, no one, how embarrassing.
Meanwhile up the road a bit was Rachel and the Labour team with their signs waving at motorists, people were tooting their horns flat out and waving back. Yeah!!!!
I hope so Cinny!! Got my bottle of NZ Lindauer bubbles ready and my millenium flute ready!! Boy I am going to enjoy this!!
It's going to be magic 🙂 I'll be thinking of you with the bubbles when it happens and raise a glass with you sista 🙂
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-judith-collins-calls-jacinda-ardern-a-liar-over-covid-19/BFHQZB5DT5F7UINVVGKKCVT7BY/
She is really sounding unhinged now. The internal polls clearly aren't moving (at least not in the right direction).
EDIT: Swordfish’s post about the new UMR corporate poll would seem to bear that out.
"She is really sounding unhinged now"
It was always a matter of intense interest to consider how long she could maintain the mask of normality with the girlish "Hi Duncan" and "Oh – morning Suzie" before the whole malevolent contraption exploded.