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6:00 am, October 14th, 2020 - 88 comments
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If the UMR poll is on the money and National polls 29% or thereabouts on election night, and assuming Hutt South is a Labour gain, then they will have to lose 5 electorate seats for Chris Bishop to be returned as a list MP. Similarly Nicola Willis will only be heading back to parliament as a List MP if they lose 7 electorate seats. The wipeout of the (relatively) youngish, more liberal grouping in the pastry could be massive.
What are Goldsmith’s chances – as National have chosen to gift Epsom to the ACT Party again?
He'll be the first one in off the list, so he is 99% certain to be there.
The overhang scenario is fun to imagine, but it won't happen. If the party vote is that bad, National will be losing electorates too.
Surplus to requirements as National return to their core values lead by true believers Jude n Gez.
Luxon and the hollow men have their work cut out from Saturday with the first prayers of unity Sunday.
Jude can lead that one, she’s well practiced from the campaign.
… grouping in the pastry …
I read that and got a sudden mental image of road-kill skunk pie.
And I read, "groping" and my mental picture was even worse!
Really shouldn’t post in a hurry while waiting for the bus to work.
Why? Did it break down and stop working or something? 😛
Tim Watkin considers the policy options for "potential coalition negotiations between Labour and the Greens, which could begin next week".
Well, doesn't matter how much the public deserves to know, Labour will keep refusing to inform them. It wants a blank cheque, and the polls suggest it will get it!
But Tim is right to explore the likely thrust of negotiations with the Greens. Especially as public & media are unlikely to be informed as those happen, which will irritate all immensely! Open govt is something Labour likes to talk about, but hates to do.
No different from National and ACT in 2008, or Labour and the Alliance in 1999.
And – as James Shaw has explained, and Watkin hasn't grasped – it is about the relationship, not the checklist. The first MMP government tried to nail down everything in the negotiations, and it fell apart, and every government since then has learned from that.
In 2017, if Ardern had been asked" "Will you rule out closing the borders and telling people to stay home?" she would have dismissed the stupid question, and ruled it out or said it wasn't on the table or a bottom line or any of those cliches that commentators love. But … events.
In the next 3 years, unexpected things will happen, so positions will change. Budget Responsibility Rules? A clear promise by Labour and the Greens. But then everyone – even Goldsmith – wanted them torn up. So they were.
Dennis Frank MMP relies on those with the most support to set the majority of policy and the support party gets a few of its policies depending on its level of support.
Or the degree of leverage it has over the bigger party – if Labour is reliant upon The Greens for becoming the Government for a second term, The Greens could have an enhanced opportunity to require policy implementation or something resembling it.
Collins has gone even lower showing her true character which will be a massive turn off for voters.
Desperation .
She was left with no choice, she tried being nice and it was as natural as a horse walking backwards.
When Collins took over from Muller, she said she was done with Nationals dirty tricks. Well that didn't last long did it. How can she ever be trusted again.
The Spinoff political editor examines how "the progressive schism" is playing out in a local microcosm: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/13-10-2020/the-battle-for-central-auckland-is-splitting-the-left/
This dichotomy between pragmatic centrism and genuine progressive politics is a faultline running through western civilisation. Both/and logic applies!
It would be nice to see a bit of pragmatic centrism, frankly. With our massive and growing inequality, and no suggestion of policies to address it, the self-styled centrists aren't much better than the far-right – they just boil the frog a bit slower.
You're right that they're largely an unthinking group – mainstreamers mostly. A cut above sheeple though? To the extent that they're smart enough to not become captive to left/right tribalism, that's so.
Consensus politics works via the muddle through the middle. Inequality is structural and functional. It's a product of capitalism. It will be there as long as democracy empowers capitalism!
Those who see it as a social problem to be resolved by a design solution (like me) are less than 1% of voters. Even the Greens remain clueless about how to get the right result – which is not to demean their alternative solution, in principle, merely to note that it is an attempt to reinvent socialism by stealth. You can't win with that attitude. Corbyn & Sanders proved it.
The article finally manages to mention green issues near the end…….certainly pushing White over Swarbrick.
Is there even such a thing?
Pragmatic:
Centrist:
Generally speaking, pragmatism refers to doing what is physically possible while centrism is about balancing what is physically possible with the delusional.
At best, pragmatic centrism would be an oxymoron because that's what centrism is.
They vote according to whichever mainstream party seems suitable at the time. Nonaligned with either left or right, they have constituted the tertiary division of the system that had previously been binary. They are mainly visible to political scientists & commentators as swing-voters (a small subgroup).
Since the 1980s, they have been measured as around a third of the electorate in all western countries (by election results) – however a large proportion of them don't vote due to lack of faith in democracy.
If, for some reason, you haven't noticed the phenomenon, it could be due to lack of examples in your family & circle of friends. I've always had a majority of them in mine. The few in my circle who are so conservative that they still take the Nat/Lab option seriously are outliers…
I cannot stand swingers. Their willy-waving ways of voting show such lack of commitment and loyalty, it disgusts me. If you want to be a freedom-loving hedonistic libertine, politically speaking, under the pretence of being for pragmatic centrism, then just go full frontal and vote for one of the fringe parties or ACT. Bloody hypocrites, with their both/and logic; they want to have both their pie and feast on it.
They are indeed mostly opportunists. I always saw their flip/flop between the establishment parties as braindead, but as I got older I realised it was just mercenary. So I use pragmatism to signal the sensible choice of following the money (when in Rome…) and you can inform yourself of how they think about that via conversation – if you really want to know!
Fwiw, I think a different psychology is in play currently. They got reassured by Grant re adherence to neoliberal bau, which stopped the drift back to National, but it seems clear that there was a significant centrist shift to Labour due to the PM's pandemic leadership prior.
Yes, we have centrist, swinging, voters but centrism is a lie. A balancing act between reality and the delusional but the delusional can't be balanced.
Can't agree with you because nonaligned is a durable stance, whether for persons or groups. It works when binary compression is insufficient to enforce loyalty.
I consider loyalty to be rather stupid but I also consider believing the delusional to also be rather stupid.
Some people are behaving as if the election has already taken place.
The Greens really need to shut up about the wealth tax. Too much is at stake at the moment.
Yeah, they should bury it next to CGT and CC. These are just annoying issues that nobody wants to talk about and that are a major inconvenience for politicians who love nothing more than political expediency.
Well millsy is very anxious that we don't 'snatch defeat from the jaws of victory'. Another cliche' 'It ain't over till the fat lady sings" which refers to opera I think. And this is a clash with high and low emotions par excellence, worthy of some comic opera. (Comic if one was a god or some triffilionaire sitting on high watching.)
Yes, millsy has made it abundantly clear that they are anxious. Although it is understandable, it won’t change a thing. People have a tendency if not habit to avoid stuff that’s perceived (too) hard. That kind of attitude doesn’t change a thing either. Funny that 😉
This is a crucial moment in time, and a crucial decision that we attempt to reason our way towards. Part of that reasoning is knowing that some people don't ever use it and throw gold-painted dice to guide them every morning. (Winston Churchill didn't say that.)
If not now, then when? Excuses, excuses, there are always excuses. Manjana, nek minnit, yeah-nah. It is the duty of our elected politicians to tackle the hard stuff as well; nobody else can and will. This is how the system works. Election time is the perfect time to put the hard stuff on the table as it sets the scene for the next term.
'Term' has a number of meanings. We are already in a term, the election just heralds the next part of it; there is a fork in the road and we want to follow the left way which is essential for getting pretty close to our desired destination.
"If not now, then when?" – YES, now is the time to campaign for and on progressive taxation policies. Labour have their watered down "don't scare the horses" one (better than nothing), and with Ardern ruling out the CGT recommendations of the Tax Working Group, the Green party have taken the opportunity to develop and run with their (much) more progressive/redistributive wealth tax.
National and ACT are promising (unrealistic) tax cuts – nothing new there.
Too transformative for you Millsy?
Maybe Labour should put forward an alternative tax policy that will genuinely alleviate poverty rather than the pathetic 39% above $180k policy (which raises one-sixteenth of the WT).
Tax policy alone will never alleviate poverty. To do that we need to re-balance the entire economy.
These are the basic necessities but there is more that needs to be looked at. Taxes could help if they're done properly and discourage excessive ownership.
shut up about the wealth tax
They can't. The reason is identity politics. When a political party identifies with losers, they marginalise themselves intentionally. The leftist Greens don't see that as a problem. I agree with you – in principle – however. They seem to be gambling that alienating centrists will win them lower-class votes…
sorry, who are the losers that the GP is identifying with?
Those whom the system is designed to marginalise. Those whom they designed the wealth tax to benefit. I'm using it in the class sense. Because in mass psychology that's the mental category they get put in.
Btw, I do realise that you &/or others may feel it is demeaning to use it as a technical term, but not to do so is to evade reality. I believe the best way to do politics is to engage with how people actually think & feel. To me, that's an ethical pre-requisite! Whenever I'm clearly using a non-pc stance, it's because of a higher priority that informs my decision-making…
You are right, I don't like you referring to me and others of my class as losers. 'Loser' is almost wholly a pejorative in politics. Worse, you're not even trying to be sarcastic but appear to think it's an appropriate term to use. There are two problems here. One is that calling the under class losers renders class analysis less visible. Two, it detracts from the point you are trying to make.
Just because you feel like/think poor people are losers, doesn't make it a useful or meaningful term.
Dennis you have found out how people think and feel. As I understand it you are referring to the mentality of the hard-line capitalist-economic class who divide citizens into winners or losers as they regard the distribution of the nation's resources as a competitive thing.
If that is so you need to make it clear that you are not using the word "loser' as a slur. And because this present economy judges people by their wealth, those with a low income receive many slurs. Perhaps using the word excluded or missing-out would state the meaning better. But it needs to be talked about – it is true that in the winners/losers division it is increasingly more unequal since 1984's free market-neolib.
I think this is so presumptuous it borders on arrogance. You don’t know what people actually think & feel. I think it is demeaning to presume to know that they think & feel in these demeaning ways. It says more about you than about the imaginary people you claim to engage with; a classical example of projection. Please remember that here on this site you are actually engaging with only a small group of commenters plus reaching a much larger group of silent readers.
I think it is un-ethical not to say what you mean and mean what you say and to hide behind the presumed thoughts & feelings of some virtual audience. Speak for yourself, own your own thoughts & feelings, and build your arguments on those using your own words. Anything else is dishonest and dishonesty is intrinsically off-putting and rubs people the wrong way.
The fact that you prioritise your commenting style here to inform your “decision-making” over honest engagement and debate with others here is deeply disturbing 🙁
OK. It’s only ethical to note that you come across like a pompous git of the highest order here, Dennis. Can't possibly imagine how the Green party resisted your enduring influence, how they spurned the precious gems you offered.
Fortunately younger citizens are brighter and your dim moon is setting below yon horizon. Enjoy a happy and quiet retirement. We will all feel better for it.
Agree with millsy. They've made their point now shut up! There's plenty of time to argue the toss after the election is over. If they're not careful they could stop Labour voters who are considering a party vote for the Greens to help them back into parliament. I'm one of them.
Making my mind up after the last poll results tomorrow.
Agree Anne, re make their point now shut up.
Ardern is countering National's they'll take your money taxinda propaganda including getting the Greens numbers wrong.The truth is after Covid I trust this govt to deliver for the good of NZders. There are more than one way to skin a cat. Wealth tax is just one way of bringing inequality. Rightly or wrongly a large number of NZders have made money from the property market. They are the voters of the centre and likely are fairly self interested. One of the reasons Labour’s polling went up after Covid is that it effected everyone. Those centre voters could see a competent plan that kept them safe.
If the wealth tax was a vote winner, Greens TOP would have surging polls numbers. But there is still some uncertainly Greens will make it back in. I hope they do.
Maybe we'll see a 'kiwibuild levy' on house sales. Surjonkyponyboy was pretty clear on levies not being taxes, I seem to recall.
The Greens also have a much more comprehensive income tax policy with higher rates at the upper end. That is an area that could be negotiated about. And having the greens there will support the lefter leaning Labour.
There is also a wealth deal that could be done around estate and stamp duty taxes going on and capping the 100% asset tax that applies now to the small portion of elders who end up in full care. The 100% care tax falls pretty unevenly.
The odious stuff.co is certainly out to get Billy. Funny that, the tall poppy syndrome is alive and well in New Zealand, in an attempt to take down this wonderful man. How dare they explain a "Tour of Duty" to a military man. I think Billy would know his work history better than stuff.co!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/stuff-circuit/300131103/false-profit-full-and-unedited-video-with-advance-nz-coleader-billy-te-kahika
[Good morning. You still have a Moderation note to respond to here: https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-02-10-2020/#comment-1755893. Today is your last chance and after that, I will move you from Pre-Moderation to the Blacklist for a month for making unsupported assertions and wasting moderator time – Incognito]
[Since you have not given a satisfactory response to moderation, we might see you again in one month – Incognito]
See my Moderation note @ 8:53 AM.
I have a theory you think it's a conspiracy 😆
I suppose his nutty antisemitism is also the sign of a 'wonderful man' ?
https://interactives.stuff.co.nz/2020/10/a-darker-truth-anti-semitism-billy-tk-jr-conspiracy/?cid=app-iPhone
I think Stunned that there might have been a nuance in maui's comment which was meant to be ironic, but you missed it.
I think /sarc at end might be best in these cases as some here think that ironic isn’t something to trip your thinking up, but a metal bar that you either trip over or that stuns you!
Maui, the policies of the Public Party are so muddled and vague
Their Covid stuff is so demonstrably untrue.
"Initial predictions of death have not materialised around the world, and COVID-19’s case fatality rate is not unlike that of seasonal influenza."
Bungled the quote marks sorry
The big quotemarks are redundant..my words
I think Billy knows the stuff he makes up. He mightn’t be entirely sure what stuff he makes up though.
See my last Moderation note to you @ 8:53 AM.
I guess the rats are one by one deserting the sinking ship SS Judith Collins. She's toast post election, that is increasingly clear. Mark Mitchell would probably be a good leader for the Nats, certainly better than the divisive falsity of Collins.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-gerry-brownlee-says-weight-is-his-responsibility-judith-collins-says-obese-people-must-own-personal-choices/EWPIXPGKXMUW5BBWAPPEGIZMNI/
Peter chch, Mark Mitchell is the very bottom of their barrel. A mercenary no less.
They need to go back to the drawing board for at least 10 years, as they all worship wealth for some, and believe in trickle down theories, and small state. Wow that has really worked in the USA and the UK!! sarc.
Total agreement here Patricia. Mitchell is about the last person anyone needs in the role.
Absolutely with you both Patricia and RedBaron.
I didn't know anything about his history but looking at what is available via google he appears to have a reasonably good history for an MP
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/features/4810730/In-the-line-of-duty
Luxon
What sort of question is Luxie the answer to?
Do you love your soft skin?
it really gets in
Aww, nice photo.
I don't agree with their wealth tax or even their cannabis policy (haven’t decided on that yet, it’s one for the polling booth), but at least they represent a departure from the current system. A left government needs these people as balance to the right wing of the Labour Party. You know the types, they advocate beating capitalists at their own game rather than changing the game.
Tis a nice photo. And that's from a two ticks labour voter
Our basic older systems are working to control Covid 19 but we aren't doing it right because we aren't utilising the most advanced technology trackers. This item from Radionz has a number of quotes from different people with different viewpoints and has to be read in full to get the gist of who is suggesting what.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428301/nz-s-covid-19-methods-are-effective-but-old-fashioned-disaster-expert 11:11 am today
New Zealand needs to start having a conversation about more modern responses to the Covid-19 pandemic, such as mobile phone tracking, a specialist in disasters says. (I'm not sure which specialist is being referred to here.)
University of Canterbury law professor John Hopkins told Morning Report New Zealand needs to think about whether it would use technology as a tool in fighting the virus like other countries have.
He said Taiwan has used some similar measures to New Zealand "…but the main difference is their heavy use of IT and some pretty invasive use of mobile phone tracking and other similar mechanisms to control individuals and to pinpoint who's at risk of having the virus".
He said although the methods New Zealand uses are effective, "they're old fashioned".
My feeling about wanting to force us all to have devices is that this adoption (for efficiency and speed of contact particularly of the precariat) is the hardest, biggest marketing ploy ever seen in the world. The corps(e) want them embedded in our society, pecking away at our lives like vicious magpies. We must be
encouragedforced to give up our old, cheap, practical and user-friendly systems and become totally reliant on tech devices to do everything, and be watched through them by authorities of some sort, not necessarily gummint, throughout our daily lives. Tech is great, all bow down.If old fashioned works I'm fine with that. Anyone pushing the high tech can have a lot of other motives unrelated to disease.
One man's view of Covid in the UK could lead to some thinking, "We don't know how lucky we are."
Indeed!
except for a cameo of Richard Prebble of doubtful memory!
Does Tom write his own Jonathan Pie stuff?
About the Brit Chancellor – "You entitled horse-faced prick" is I am sure very apt to those in the UK who can glue two thoughts together.
But in today's world where ordinary citizens have retreated so far from reality that they believe anything that a politician tells them is true and moral in a tone of confidence, firmness while looking them steadily in the eye, then they are just like my very nice hairdresser. Who thinks if parents do the right things in helping their children, they will find their way to a good job and a future. Yes, partly true, but there are other children who won't. Well they should stay off drugs. But there are so many other factors? No, you are worrying too much.
It's all a bit hard to cope with and maybe we should let the politicians and authorities get on with it – after all we pay them enough don't we!
Jaw dropping. Who'd have thunk it.
Sky rocketing house prices are not sustainable for the local economy, according to Real Estate Institute of New Zealand chief executive Bindi Norwell….
"There's approximately $10 billion that people would traditionally spend on overseas travel and now they're thinking 'what can I do with this extra additional cash that I've got' and so property has been a popular choice and it's because people are thinking it's a good long-term investment.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/428297/surging-house-prices-can-t-last-forever-reinz
Perhaps the government should issue some more bonds and mop up some of this excess money. Crazy isn't it, with so many having more credits than they know how to spend, and some hardly having enough to live and their way blocked from getting decent employment by the government running down local enterprise in favour of importing cheap goods in its place.
Perhaps government could raise bonds to help struggling local business keep going and defend themselves against mechanical shredders of enterprise – the landlords and others. That way we will keep a semblance of an enterprise- oriented country through production rather than just being service lackeys to the rich.
I could see some of the local publicly listed companies borrowing off the market rather than the banks. A composite bond that covers a number of listed companies borrowings might be a good idea. Be interesting to see to if local mortgage borrowing starts to bypass the banks by way of composite borrowiing – but not junk bonds.
That's what you get when you base society upon bludging. The successful bludgers get richer and thus deprive others of the necessities of life.
No one is taking up bonds at this interest rate.
To even start to divert equity out of housing and into more productive assets like businesses, there needs to be both an active sharemarket (ours is moribund), and a massive VIF sector (ours is tiny).
Maybe they need to stretch their legs and just have a huge tax cut for those investing in businesses, so that even future house rises get slightly less appealing.
Not happening under either alternative government option.
Yes it's a worry. I wonder if the situation is a bit like that in England when the Irish Famine was starting (for the second time).
Like this? Damn, that is an unpleasant little scene over there in Ireland. Yes, but I think reports are a bit exaggerated, it will be only tough for a few short weeks and then supplies will be available. Oh no, they are committed in entirety to… What's to be done then? Oh they will just have to batten down, and they can struggle through. The Irish are a hardy lot you know. etc.
In other words, no ideas from the employed leaders, no effort, no impetus, and no responsibility, no-one to call them to order with expectations of fruitful and intelligent action.
Try giving the country a short burst of 5% inflation, bring up the OCR or whatever then it costs more to borrow for houses and at the same time offer the bonds at a slightly teeny bit higher. We haven't had a level playing field for a while so tilt it differently.
Sharemarkets don't actually encourage investment in productive businesses. Once the IPO is done none of the money exchanged on the sharemarket goes to the business of which the shares of which the shares give ownership.
Buying and selling of shares is nothing but pure speculation.
Business and society would be better off if the business just took out a loan.
The difference between owning a business and expanding through private loan, or listing your growing business on the sharemarket, is best summed up by Fiddy Cent:
We can't afford the sudden shock of losing all the financial structure we have. We need to utilise what we have. Going for completely different theories is for med-long term not a short term thing.
Doesn't have to be a private loan. In fact, a government loan on 0% interest would be best.
You're still trying to hold on to the failed economics of the past and the completely wrong idea that we need savings to make loans.
There are clever, agile minds around who get organised into criminality. The latest is stealing from glasshouses. (This might be a feature of wanting staff from overseas – less local connections to utilise the info of saleable stock and procedures from local staff?)
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/428292/exotic-plants-stolen-from-wellington-botanic-garden
A dozen plants were taken from the Begonia House overnight on Monday.
They are a mix of rare and common, and range from small ones to over a metre tall.
Police said they been told about the incident and were assessing the information.
Manager David Sole said the plants were worth thousands of dollars and and there was no signs of a break-in.
He said he thought the theft was linked to a similar one at the Christchurch Botanic Gardens last month, with glasshouses around the country having also been targeted recently.
I remember a library book stealing system.
Book thief who pillaged libraries gets 5 1/2 years – NZ Herald
http://www.nzherald.co.nz › nz › news › article
Jan 21, 2005 — Lee Simpson forged Janet Frame's signature to improve the value of her books and hid rare and valuable collections in a Christchurch riverbed as he waited for a buyer. He stole from libraries up and down the country for 10 years, making at least $150,000.
'PM in waiting' wrestles with supporter over a MAGA sign.
Car crash politics.
I think she is turning it to the camera for the best view.
Oh dear. Half the National Party caucus in trouble here.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/10/finland-moves-to-ban-unsolicited-dick-pics.html
Friend on the Sunshine coast tells us his friend in France says 9000 cases overnight and many people were put in hospitals last night and they are overwhelmed.
The second wave is turning into a tsunami.
We are so blessed here, having the luxury of choosing and voting for continued success.
National MP's social media prowess from an MP in a marginal seat according to JC, that David Bennett chap.
Dirty politicking the seniors about how they'll get 7100 tax p.a under a Lab/Green banner.
Strange , the atmosphere here 3 days before an election. No passion, all details.
What matters: only climate change.
Did you see Robertson's ad on utube where he tried to persuade former John Key supporters he was following in his steps.
There is this small matter … of reality.
We have enough growed-to-adulthood Welfare State fellows to address this crisis with keen sharp teeth. It would involve destroying this l-a-b-o-u-r.