Roy Morgan
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2:40 pm, March 10th, 2008 - 28 comments
Categories: polls -
Tags: polls
The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, covering the period February 18 – March 2. The poll shows National still able to govern alone, but after John Key’s performance last week it’s looking increasingly unlikely that National will be able to hold onto its 15 point lead until polling day.
A few more points for Labour and the Greens and we might just have an interesting race on our hands.
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Tane
Even though I’ll be voting towards the right I would be amazed if anyone gets a mandate to vote alone under MMP.
I think a more likely scenario is as per the Marae digi poll with the Maori Party being the possible King/Queen maker – or alternatively supporting one or the other on votes of confidence and supply
HS – I agree that’s the most likely scenario. Naturally I’d prefer a Labour/Green/Maori deal.
I also thought it was interesting NZ First being on 4%. We should be careful not to write off Winston this early in the piece.
Whatever the final numbers the current Labour government is on its way out. The Queen is dead, long live the King!
The Tories do not have a sensible program and will continue being a softer, blander version of the current socialist regime. That’s democracy after all.
The Tories do not have a sensible program
I’d like to see it. Seriously- I’d really like to see it.
I don’t think at anytime (aside from Dad), anyone, either left or right would discount the Labour Party at all.
No matter from which side of the tracks you come from, you have to respect the likes of Clark and Williams as being supreme politician and strategists alike and Key/National would discount them as being down and out at their peril.
I would pick that over the next 3 months, all the polls will be up and down until the final 3 months in the run up when I expect the numbers to firm up. Labour will have willing coalition partners but may not have the “ooomph” themselves to propel their partners into power. Conversely, National has plenty of party ooomph (that would be the technical term) but little in the way of good partnering from minor partys to utilise the MMP environment effectively to govern.
The potential for a massive overhang, however does exist and could throw the whole structure of the house out of kilter.
Tane
Think you’re probably right about Winston, although he irks me no end he is a survivor and will ikely pull something out of the hat at the last minute to push NZ first over 5%.
The perverse thing is the two parties that will have the lions share of support, who are probably the closest in terms of their policies and potential management of NZ are the two that will never be able to govern in tandem.
I’m not entirely sure that would be desirable HS, such an arrangement would strike me as akin to a one-party system.
I also think the similarities between National and Labour are exaggerated. The nature of modern elections is such that both parties pitch their policy towards the centre in order to attract swinging voters. In reality the two parties come from very different perspectives – Labour Party activists tend to be well to the left of the Parliamentary party, just as National activists are well to the right of where National’s Parliamentary wing has positioned itself.
santi. See Higherstandard and Brownie’s comments? That’s called ‘thoughtful’ and ‘reasonable’. you should try it.
Tane
You may be right about the activist parts of the parties, however the vast rump of each is towards the centre.
Steve in relation to Santi although his post is a mite bombastic it’s probably close to the mark
Steve Pierson, Professor of English, I shall heed your formidable suggestion.
So, can we have a quick straw poll of the right-leaning visitors … would you prefer National to be propped up by Winston, or the Maori Party? (ACT votes will only come from National, so that’s not an option).
the polls at the moment are just another meedia job..they don’t mean nuthin’ and is there actually a person called roy morgan?
This is THE Election for the Greens If they can’t get traction now they never will
You may find it bizarre gs but I’d prefer the Maori party to Winston
A few more points for Labour and the Greens and we might just have an interesting race on our hands.
Certainly will. A 2% swing to Labour could give us a Labour party in GOvernment that that could well have less votes than the entire Opposition bloc.
http://big-news.blogspot.com/2008/03/overhang-may-decide-election-isnt-it.html
“This is THE Election for the Greens If they can’t get traction now they never will”
I hope the demented Greens never get any traction whatsoever. Jeanette, Sue, and the other lunatics will send New Zealand back to the Stone Age after a few months in government.
Don’t ever contemplate the possibility…..
I hope the demented Greens never get any traction whatsoever
So the Greens are mad are they ?
Both Labour and National both now accept climate change and Global warming, Something the Greens have been warning of for over two decades.
Instead of the Greenwash that the two main parties seem so participating in. The Greens are the only Party with realistic policies that actually address the problems
that we face as a world and as a nation
If you are supporting a a party which thinks that you can have unlimited growth using finite resources,
Then it is you my friend that is shoe strong signs of dementia
should be
Then it is you my friend that is showing strong signs of dementia
It has also been shown that Green Party Voters have the highest rate of having an education at Degree level ,then any other party.
“It has also been shown that Green Party Voters have the highest rate of having an education at Degree level ,then any other party.”
So what? The same could be said of the Catholic Church in Italy or the Communist Party in the USSR of old.
It means the masses and the so-called educated class can always be duped. It means bugger all!
Now I am of the opinion that a party that wanted to send troops to Iraq to bomb them “into the stone age” also exhibited signs of dementia
Tane how about a post on the attached article under rorting
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4433740a10.html
Nice to know taxpayers money is being so well spent.
Hey HS – how about you start a blog and put up a post? Do you really think people are here to satisfy your demands???
Does Cullen have the numbers yet?
Does Cullen have the numbers yet?
Well obviously, he’s only Minister of Finance after all. Despite the international downturn which has wiped out our “operating surplus”, he has been such a good manager of the economy that he can still manage some pretty big numbers – like an extra $700 million for research & development:
http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=1342
Is that $700 million for an industry described by Labour as a “sunset industry”?
Sounds pretty hollow to me.
It sounds pretty to good to the industry involved though!