Written By:
Anthony R0bins - Date published:
9:17 am, September 24th, 2017 - 44 comments
Categories: election 2017, jacinda ardern, labour -
Tags: #ChangeTheGovt, election 2017, MMP, the morning after
While the election didn’t get us the result we hoped for, the fact that we could even hope for a Labour Green win is remarkable – was inconceivable just 2 months ago.
The mood for change was there, it just needed a spark, and the spark was Jacinda Ardern. Despite what must have been very strong reservations, she stepped up and gave it her all. The Labour team and supporters gave their all too. The campaign that I saw locally in Dunedin North was astonishing – a whole new level. Nationally Labour’s surge has been incredible. Thank you Jacinda Ardern, and thank you all who worked so hard.
If you haven’t seen Ardern’s speech on the night, Newshub has it here – Let’s Keep Doing This!
So now it’s up to MMP, and the Winston fest begins. Buckle up.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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”So now it’s up to MMP, and the Winston fest begins. Buckle up.’
might be worth the left laying of the whole winstons in it for himself memes , i could live with a L,NZF,G three way
Yeah I’m not sure where National & NZ 1st policies overlap. If policy makes the coalition, that is.
“was inconceivable just 2 months ago”
Not exactly.
The Nats haven’t really moved in terms of their support from where they were two months ago. At that time it was going to be a L/G/NZF coalition which booted them from power.
Unfortunately that is exactly where we are this morning. Relying on Winston.
I am very fearful that the cost for his support will be the Greens siting outside of cabinet.
I have woken up rather depressed with this result.
Two months ago, Labour + Greens was about 40%. Last night, Labour + Greens was about 42%. That’s the scale of Jacindamania. A two point boost. Against a tired and corrupt government lead by someone with the charisma of an artichoke.
Sorry if my applause is slightly muted.
I was part of the campaign in Dunedin North. We had hundreds and hundreds of people come forward to offer help in the weeks (and it was only weeks) between Jacinda taking office and the election night. It was astounding.
Don’t be so dismissive – this woman deserves huge thanks and support. Ask yourself – what would have happened without her? (And let’s remember that Andrew Little may well still have withdrawn, and Meteria Turei had already put herself in the firing line without thorough enough prep, without full support from her caucus and without the basic forethought about paying back the money owed.)
Ardern is going to make a stunning PM. It’s possible that she’ll manage it this time, with L+G+NZF. If not, it’ll be next time. And in the meantime she’ll be a force to reckon with as Leader of the Opposition.
Up from 36% at the last election – a 6% swing is a significant achievement – we all hoped for better, but quit the glass half empty BS – we have a genuine shot at forming a Government coalition, despite your negative opinion about the prospects.
And Willy Jackson was positive about a Lab/NZ First/Green coalition on Q&A this morning. He’s had nasty press in the past, but the real Willy Jackson has stood up and I’m impressed. Smart and likable. So glad he’s on the Labour bandwagon.
Whetre do you reckon Jones sits in the Nats or Lab. Call for NZF? Did he leave Labour under bad terms?
Shane’s relationship with some in Labour became strained over a few ‘misadventures’ back in 2010/2012 and he eventually lost his front bench position. Murray McCully took advantage and offered him a role as ‘roving ambassador to the Pacific islands’. He left parliament in 2014 to take up it up.
I remember him saying recently something to the effect… he was born into the Labour Party and would be very pleased if NZ First formed a coalition with Labour. I get the impression he is on close terms with Winston and that he may play a role in negotiations.
When Andrew Little encouraged Willie to join Labour and become the Maori seats campaign manager, I thought WOW!!
Andrew is excellent at finding people to match a role. He was right.
He got Tamati Coffey to change from the Rotorua Electorate to Waiariki.
This meant ” Nat no friends” lost a potential partner in the Maori Party, and left Winston as the party to make up a coalition.
Now we are paying Winston respect by putting up a negotiating team he knows, and that we can be proud of.
Andrew’s other decision re Leadership, has been a roaring success. Jacinda raised our hopes and vision of what we could be. Look at the quality of the new members for Labour. Brilliant.!!
Marama Fox said, after Flavell’s defeat, “Tamati Coffey? What has he done??”
He has excelled at most things he has tried. His business in Rotorua pays a living wage. He has raised thousands in fund raisers, and seriously connected with his electorate, doing working bees, huis, plus research on what his constituents hoped for. He is switched on and is a real asset. He is just one of the new members for Labour.
So to all those knockers, we have excellent members who care. Let’s do this.
We were there for her speech on the night, and it hit just the right tone.
The volume of new Labour Members of Parliament is going to see a powerful energy in Parliament emerge.
So close but corbyn – Jacinda did everything she could and labour gave it a good go. I cannot fault the campaign that made a silk purse out of Andrew going. Yet close enough is just so not good enough for the people dying and suffering.
Mauri ora
Don’t get ready to despair quite yet: if the coalition is decided on policy, here’s something from NZ1st:
…and so on. After specials L/G/NZF might have 62 seats. Tight, and better than the sadistic corrupt status quo.
I don’t trust Winston first at all. The people have spoken and that hideous cackle haunts me and I’ll live with it.
I don’t trust any of them: they’re judged on results.
I grieve too Marty for those who struggle for whatever reason. I know though that Labour in the southern region ( only one I was involved with) worked and succeeded hugely, resulting in the Dunedin seats returning to Labour party vote and the election to the list and so to parliament of Dr Liz Craig, the tireless professional researcher of and advocate for child health and the effect of poverty on it.
As well, I have never seen such superb planning from Head Office, and know that this competence augers well should we face a snap election.
The problem is that Party vote is the crucial thing for the big parties.
The people of Dunedin are brave souls cos they have been poorly treated by those who dont need their votes.
For those who voted for the extra 20 bucks, I hope you can afford health insurance cos you have traded that 20 bucks for an improved health system. As you get older your premiums go through the roof. Trust me on this.
Don’t hold a tangi too early. We might be celebrating a wedding.
Like all families, we need to enhance common ground and agree to disagree in places.
Winston believes in fair pay.
Winston believes in old values of consideration and caring.
He wants NZ assets in NZ hands.
He favours rail and ports and exports.
He will want to leave the country better off for future generations.
So wait for him to negotiate.
We may be very pleased.
It’s a nice thought patricia but I can’t see it happening. Peters represents too many self-interested people’s failures. He’s there, they’re not but want to be, and they hate him for it.
Most of the criticisms hurled at Peters is plain old spite and I’ll wager that won’t stop. Labour & Greens could easily win Peters over and form a stable Govt but I’m doubtful they have enough sincerity in them to do it. Helen Clarke showed the way which was to treat him with respect and honour your deals.
Winston is set to lose a lot of mana, if he throws his support behind the lying two-some of English and Joyce. These two have brought electioneering to a very dangerous level.
Agree with patricia bremner
Personally I thought it was a terrible result,and to make matters worse, it seems as if many on the Left are believing the hype around Ardern, which labour (who should) and the media (who shouldn’t) appear to be inventing as they go along, maybe it’s time to just stand back, take a deep breath and analyze the results.
2017 National: 46% Labour 35.8% NZ First 7.5% Greens 5.9% ACT 0.5%
2014 National 47% Labour27% Greens 11% NZ First 6% Maori/Act/United all 1%
So Labour have picked up 6% from the Greens, 1%from Maori Party = Labour 34%
which would mean in general terms Ardern has swung maybe 2% of voters that didn’t perviously, to vote Labour, as the rate of enrollment went up by only 1%, this might be just slightly more, but still very very low for a fourth term election cycle.
This result, after all the free positive spin that Ardern has received (probably more in one week, than Little received in his whole time as leader) is really a pretty sad indictment on Labour, especially when one thinks of the disaster National is unleashing on New Zealand. as we speak.
Where was all the supposed highly motivated and mobilized youth vote Labour and the media was telling us all about? where was the relentlessly talked about Jacinda effect?
Was it all just hollow hyperbole created by the media to add interest and drama to what has turned out to be, what was probably always going to happen anyway.
So it looks like all this being relentlessly positive and pragmatic is not finding traction with most workers, students from less well off families and the disenfranchised, many who live lives that are relentlessly grinding, long and hard.
So chasing the middle ground voter has backfired yet again on Labour.
I for one would like to see a Strong Labour leader who is relentlessly outraged at the destructive path Neoliberalism and National is relentlessly dragging NZ down, there is nothing positive in that future what so ever.
I for one would like to see a Strong Labour leader who is relentlessly outraged at the destructive path Neoliberalism and National is relentlessly dragging NZ down.
Yep.
Sadly, NZ Labour doesn’t see the connection between macro economic settings and that path. Depending on what the reasons were for the Greens signing up to that fiscal responsibility nonsense, neither do they.
On more positive notes, Shaw talks a good game (that speech last night). Numbers stack for a NZ Labour/Green/NZF coalition. And if a Nat/NZF coalition governs, the common ground that exists between NZF, NZ Labour and the Greens probably means that many Nat policies will fall.
The asylum could certainly be in better hands (social democratic ones), but that means having a parliamentary party willing to call time on Liberal economics. Until then, the working class will continue to be shafted and offered a parliamentary ‘Hobsons Choice’ at election time.
So is it time for a movement? Well…yup. I think it’s time for a movement.
For me, a flax roots movement is the only way forward for the left, whatever happens to the NZ government in the short to medium term.
We have work to do!
Aye.
I’m kind of quite looking forward to being a part of it 🙂
Well, shock horror – Adrian is relentlessly negative as usual!
And let’s wait until the specials have been counted before we draw final conclusions about youth voting, shall we? There were huge lines of people signing up and voting in the university campus and polytech here in Dunedin and (as I understand) elsewhere, mostly in the last week of the campaign. They get counted as specials.
As for negative media coverage about Little’s leadership – I agree with you, Adrian, it was a big factor in grinding him down and undermining his leadership. I seem to recall that you were pretty damn negative about him at the time too, though.
Dunedin students…well, last night the TVNZ reporter had a hard time finding a pro Labour Party celebration down there.
Maybe the Labour Green voters are too cool for that sort of thing.
However a good number of the students he found did not like the idea of free study, because thats what Trust Funds and Mommy and Daddy are for.
Left wing NZ political parties need to reach out to the youth, and that’s not a group well represented by University students in 2017.
Siobhan – I was at the Labour celebration in Dunedin North. We had to have two, because the numbers of volunteers had increased so much and the venue for the main event couldn’t cope with the numbers. If TVNZ couldn’t find the celebration, maybe they should have asked. It was a different venue than the past (and much nicer).
When I watched the RNZ coverage (Freeview channel 50) of the election, the Dunedin reporter there said the same thing as said by Siobhan. He went to 3-4 student flats and struggled to find any Labour supporters-only National and TOP supporters. According to that reporter, it seems that those students have a beef with the ‘free study’on offer-which I thought was ironic given that they are at University. Perhaps the current crop of Students are of the belief that their should be less government involvement? I was lead to believe that the majority of Students at the University of Otago were Labour (Greens?) supporters-although maybe that could still be the case given the results in Dunedin. Well done to those involved though-I think Dunedin was Labour’s best performance.
Universities were traditionally hotbeds of small ‘c’ conservative privilege. And “user pays” was only ever going to shift University back to its “rightful” hands.
My grandfather had a childhood memory of seeing workers drag strike breaking University students from Glasgow trams during the General Strike of ’26.
Fast forward 40 years to the sixties and University students being strike breakers would have been reasonably unthinkable.
Fast forward another 50 years and…yeah, not so unthinkable.
But that’s simply what resurgent and somewhat entrenched Liberalism does.
And the running roughshod over “critic and conscience of society”. None of this is by accident.
Indeed, the party with a social conscience is not a great fan of others fulfilling their civic and legal duties as critic and conscience of society. The same party that manipulates the OIA to save itself from embarrassment.
Labour party is no longer left
It is a populist Trumpesque party, but the so called American ‘basket of deplorables’ is vastly preferable to the hypocritical hand wringing Ponsonby/Pt Chev libtards who reap the benefits of sky rocketing house prices, while decrying foreign buyers who undergird that wealth. Ardern is one of them – the worst example actually
To the point!
Hey I always said I liked Little on a personal level and also thought that he was without doubt the most honest politician in NZ, but that he was too compliant to the neo liberal elements in Labour, therefor bad for Labour (and for NZ) in the long game…IMO
All I am saying is that centrist elements in Labour and the media got what they wanted in Ardern and it hasn’t made any real impact, except in their own minds.
You will know that Labour is on the right path when a Labour leader turns up for speech anywhere in the country, and the hall is full of workers and students, and fuck all middle call liberals.
You’ll have a fair idea where the middle call liberals have all gone if they’re not there Ade, back to natland. We just don’t have enough poor people groaning in their chains, and it would be callous and perverse to wish we had more.
@Gabby, well maybe not in your social circles…however every time you walk into a Mitre 10, The Warehouse, or any other big box store you care to name anywhere in NZ, eat from any fast food outlet anywhere in NZ, eat an apple or any other NZ grown vegetable or fruit etc etc, most of the workers you will encounter at these places, or eat the produce picked/and processed by these workers you will find they are all on minimum wages or not far above, probably not even with the security of a a full 40 hour week in many cases… so as I said, I am not sure what circles you mix in.
And remember it is called minimum wage for the very reason that it is the minimum amount of money allowed to pay a worker so they can still exist and work week to week…and nothing more.
Maybe so Ade, but demonstrably not enough of them.
11 points in 6 weeks is no impact?
If you are looking for a party run solely by the proletariat, then there isn’t one that ran for office last night. Maybe you could form one. Maybe then you could stand for election in 2021. Maybe see how may votes you get.
If you think that any social reform is possible in New Zealand without the bourgeoisie, then you will be able to point to a social movement in New Zealand in the last 50 years that achieved something without them. The one exception In can think of is Unite Union.
The biggest social movements in the last 50 years originated from activists coming out of universities: PYM, the revived feminist movement, the environmental movement, the anti-nuclear and anti-war movements, the Maori sovereignty movements, sub-groups seeking Council majorities like CityVision, even avowedly proletarian movements like Sue Bradford’s efforts came from people with minimum BA’s and many with PhDs.
Fully agree.
I voted Green and hoped for a Labour/Green coalition as a least worse among the alternatnives
Jacinda though I absolutely detest. She is a wine toting liberal, with vaunting personal ambitions and the I love the kids bs is just a cause she can hitch her wagon to and ride to power. The poor are just a prop to realise her dream of becoming PM. A complete and utter phony
Personally I think you are so wrong.
Jacinda drinks whisky.
The kids know she is genuine.
It is ok for a man to want to be PM? But not a woman?? Why??
As for using the poor as a prop!! Totally in your mind!
Hopefully Jacinda and Winston are sharing a whiskey now!
No offence Adrian Thornton, but these days there are less and less workers and the students are from overseas and less understanding of NZ politics or the local students brain washed by 30 years neoliberalism. Therefore you will be waiting for eternity for Labour leader turns up for speech anywhere in the country, and the hall is full of workers and students, and fuck all middle call liberals.
In fact the internet has replaced the halls apart from the older folks so it’s not really a good representation.
I personally thought Andrew little was great for the Labour Party and Jacinda’s success was in part because of all his work uniting the party, subtly cleaning out the neolib Labour MP’s, and in particular his work with the Greens and NZ First (aka helping them in the by-election).
Jacinda has done a great job. But it’s not over. Her success will be if she forms the coalition with NZ First and Greens to run the country.
It and has always been, Labour’s election to lose. She quipped she like’s ‘single malt’. Now’s the time to make it happen.
It’s crush time for Jacinda. So she needs to stand by her words, be the personable and respectful person she is, and Let’s do it.