The many and varied thoughts of John Key on the Mt Roskill By election

Written By: - Date published: 9:17 am, December 5th, 2016 - 26 comments
Categories: john key, labour, making shit up, national, spin, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

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John Key has this really infuriating habit of talking all around an issue, offering a number of contradictory predictions and then claiming he was right when one of those predictions actually occurs.

A quick trip down memory lane about his comments concerning the Mt Roskill by-election shows how adept he is at shifting position, especially when polling results come in.  Back on November 5 he was talking about how National could win the seat.

Labour is worried about holding Mt Roskill in next month’s by-election and National has a chance for a rare win, Prime Minister John Key says.

National’s candidate Parmjeet Parmar kicked off her campaign on Saturday with Mr Key. They visited business in the electorate and spoke to a crowd of party faithful.

“We think there is a chance here. No incumbent government has won a seat they don’t hold so we’re quite realistic but there’s a sort of one in 20 year chance to get a National MP as MP for Mt Roskill,” Mr Key says.

He says Labour isn’t doing very well with ethnic communities, which are represented in the electorate.

“They (Labour) are worried about Mt Roskill and they should be worried,” he says.

A few days later he was more circumspect as National’s polling started to come through.

Key said National’s polling indicated that, despite there being a lot of National voters in the electorate, it “was obviously going to be a challenge”.

“But we are onward and upward. It is a big task, but not an impossible one.”

In the lead up to election day he shifted back however and again talked about how on a low poll National could still win the seat.

Mr Key said voter numbers are notoriously low in by-elections, and he doesn’t expect this one to be much different.

But he believes his candidate, Parmjeet Parmar, could win Mt Roskill if people do get down to the polls.

“We win the party vote there. Historically what you had is people vote splitting a little bit – voting Goff and National.”

Then the day before the election:

This has been a Labour seat, but I have to say Labour has taken this seat for granted, so that’s why this is a great opportunity for Mt Roskill to give this opportunity to a National MP.”

Prime Minister John Key has also downplayed National’s chances.

“We’re going in very much as the underdog. It doesn’t mean we can’t win and if we did, I think it would be the end of Andrew Little,” he said.

“But the point would be that I just think it’s a big challenge for us to win in Mt Roskill.”

But then post election Key said that he never thought National would win.

However, Prime Minister John Key has downplayed the impact of Labour’s win, saying low turnout and history meant National “never thought we’d win”.

“It was certainly as expected – we didn’t think we’d win and we didn’t win.”

“The Greens didn’t show up, NZ First didn’t show up and actually the voters didn’t show up, so you’ve had one of the lowest turnouts we’ve really seen in a mainstream by-election.”

Like everything else he says the claim that the turnout was one of the lowest in a mainstream by-election needs parsing.  At 16,857 (with special votes to count) the turnout in Mt Roskill was numerically lower than for the by elections in Mt Albert, Mana, and Northland but higher than Botany, Te Tai Tokerau, Ikaroa Rawhiti, and Christchurch East.  Even if by elections for Maori electorates are not “mainstream”, and if this is the suggestion it is appalling, the turnout looks like it was average, rather than one of the lowest.

And I sense a certain grudging acknowledgement by the media that they were suckered by the claim that Little was in trouble and Labour was in danger when the reality is that the result was a good old shellacking for National.  This pervading gloom being created by the media about Labour is a potent weapon for National.  Hopefully the Mt Roskill by election result will blow this apart because clearly the gloom is manufactured rather than real.

26 comments on “The many and varied thoughts of John Key on the Mt Roskill By election ”

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  1. Nick 1
    5 December 2016 at 10:05 am

    A good stomping…. Way to go Mt Roskill!!

    • lprent 1.1
      5 December 2016 at 10:21 am

      It was I expected. It just pointed how unattached John Key from auckland.

      • Keith 1.1.1
        5 December 2016 at 10:28 am

        Come on, he’s the Member of Parliament for Helensville, wherever that is!

        • dukeofurl 1.1.1.1
          5 December 2016 at 2:03 pm

          The story of how he faked residency in the electorate, buying a lifestyle block but never moving into the place, all the while making a false declaration on his enrollment card that he had resided for the required 30 days minimum. Other official records at the time showed him living in Orakei Rd Remeura.
          he was a fake from the very beginning

        • Macro 1.1.1.2
          5 December 2016 at 7:33 pm

          Well don’t ask John Key. I don’t think he has ever been there!

  2. Sam C 2
    5 December 2016 at 10:27 am

    It is a pity for Labour that the Mt Roskill result isn’t remotely reflected in the polls.

    Mind you, if it means Andrew Little leads Labour into the 2017 general election, then I’m sure an “unattached John Key from Auckland” will be quietly chuffed.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.1
      5 December 2016 at 10:45 am

      It is a pity for Labour that the Mt Roskill result isn’t remotely reflected in the polls.

      Considering that it’s an electorate that party votes National I do wonder at just how it relates to the polls.

      Despite all the BS coming from National now that they’ve lost (it’s part and parcel of their not taking responsibility for their actions) this should have been a shoe in for them to win.

      So, is this showing that the polls are simply wrong and that we’re really heading in to a Labour landslide next year or that National chose a simply terrible candidate.

      • alwyn 2.1.1
        5 December 2016 at 11:05 am

        This election result merely shows that history repeats.
        Remember what happened at almost exactly the same time in the last Parliamentary term.
        Poto Williams had a “stonking good win” win according the then Labour leader.

        “Labour leader David Cunliffe says Poto Williams has stormed to a “stonking good win”, which is nothing short of a triumph, and a signal that the National government is in trouble.”
        http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/229405/resounding-win-for-labour-in-christchurch-east

        Where did that man get his peculiar vocabulary, anyway?

      • Phil 2.1.2
        5 December 2016 at 12:42 pm

        Considering that it’s an electorate that party votes National

        Not really.

        In 2014, there were about 17,000 party votes for the ‘opposition’ parties (Lab+Gre+NZF) and 16,000 for the ‘status-quo government’ parties (Nat+Act+Con) .

  3. Karen 3
    5 December 2016 at 10:33 am

    This piece from Simon Wilson (the only journalist to predict the likely result) is a good analysis of the failure of the rest of the media to see what was happening in the Mt Roskill electorate.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/319588/mt-roskill-labour-1,-national-0,-media-0

    I think the parliamentary press in particular are living in a Wellington bubble and really do not understand what is happening in Auckland or, for that matter, in many regions in NZ.

    They continue to uncritically report Key’s political “analysis” and think they are getting insider Labour Party information when they talk to lobbyists like Phil Quin and Josie Pagani. All the nonsense about Nick Leggot being a loss to Labour shows how little they know.

    • Keith 3.1
      5 December 2016 at 10:43 am

      Quite a refreshingly honest report. It was like a “reality really is different from fiction” eureka moment.

      Regardless of which however nothing is going to change and we still cannot expect anything remotely sensible, observant or insightful from the likes of Audrey Young, Claire Trevett, Stacey Kirk or Tracy Watkins, let alone Henry, Hosking or the rest of ZB!

    • Nick 3.2
      5 December 2016 at 10:56 am

      Heres a media headline….”Natz get Labours dead Wood and Mt Roskill gets a new Kauri” ….beginning of the end for the Natzi party

  4. save nz 4
    5 December 2016 at 11:40 am

    All Key’s lies are catching up with him, as is his migration strategy which is now so obvious even the MSM, their pet economic advisors, treasury and the public can’t ignore it.

    In my view Labour is on the up. They are returning to the centre and they are focusing on local interests. Mike Wood epitomised that.

    Democracy is about achieving the most votes for the majority. A look at the statistics below show that once National lose the Pakeha homeowners to Labour or who ever else fights for their votes, National’s fortunes will turn and Labour’s will rise.

    2013 Statistics

    74.6 European or Other
    15.6 Maori
    12.2 Asian
    7.8 Pacific
    Middle Eastern/African 1.2

    According to the 2013 New Zealand census, the ethnic breakdown of Auckland was as follows:

    New Zealand European: 59.3%
    Pacific Islander: 14.6%
    Asian: 23.1%
    Maori: 10.7%
    Middle Eastern/Latin American/African: 1.9%
    Other: 1.2%
    “New Zealander:” 8.0%

    In 2014, 33% rented, 33 percent owned with a mortgage and 31% owned without a mortgage.
    http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/snapshots-of-nz/nz-in-profile-2015/housing.aspx

  5. rsbandit 5
    5 December 2016 at 12:25 pm

    This is the turning point for Labour. Change nothing. The people are warming to Little.

  6. Sam C 6
    5 December 2016 at 12:26 pm

    “that once National lose the Pakeha homeowners to Labour”?

    Good luck with that. Pakeha homeowners are really going to vote for a party who wants to tax them more, introduce a CGT and God only knows what else. That’s why Labour are mired in the 20s when it comes to polling. They couldn’t be more disconnected from Pakeha homeowners.

    • Doogs 6.1
      5 December 2016 at 1:33 pm

      Well Sam, do pray tell why pakeha homeowners are so fucking important, despite the fact that I am one of them? And I am assuming that you are talking about pakeha homeowners who live in their own homes, not the fat whitey slugs who own a portfolio of “renters” so they can gouge money from poor people who can’t afford it.

  7. Infused 7
    5 December 2016 at 12:52 pm

    My prediction for next year is that Labour is going to get a thrashing. The left in general. So much, in fact, I don’t believe NZF will have a part to play.

    I was worried at the beginning of the year, but it seems minds are made up already.

    edit: nope, I take that back now. lol

    • Tamati Tautuhi 7.1
      5 December 2016 at 1:20 pm

      Which parties will fill the vacuum if it’s not Labour and NZF, Key resigning must be reading the tea leaves?

  8. Paul Campbell 8
    5 December 2016 at 12:56 pm

    Well obviously his heart just wasn’t in it

  9. wellfedweta 9
    5 December 2016 at 1:00 pm

    It’s a very long stretch to claim the comments credited to Key over the course of the by-election are ‘varied’. They all seem remarkably consistent.

  10. JanM 10
    5 December 2016 at 1:16 pm

    He’s gone – yeah !!!!!!

  11. save nz 11
    5 December 2016 at 1:40 pm

    Key leaving the sinking ship!!