web analytics

The many and varied thoughts of John Key on the Mt Roskill By election

Written By: - Date published: 9:17 am, December 5th, 2016 - 26 comments
Categories: john key, labour, making shit up, national, spin, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:


John Key has this really infuriating habit of talking all around an issue, offering a number of contradictory predictions and then claiming he was right when one of those predictions actually occurs.

A quick trip down memory lane about his comments concerning the Mt Roskill by-election shows how adept he is at shifting position, especially when polling results come in.  Back on November 5 he was talking about how National could win the seat.

Labour is worried about holding Mt Roskill in next month’s by-election and National has a chance for a rare win, Prime Minister John Key says.

National’s candidate Parmjeet Parmar kicked off her campaign on Saturday with Mr Key. They visited business in the electorate and spoke to a crowd of party faithful.

“We think there is a chance here. No incumbent government has won a seat they don’t hold so we’re quite realistic but there’s a sort of one in 20 year chance to get a National MP as MP for Mt Roskill,” Mr Key says.

He says Labour isn’t doing very well with ethnic communities, which are represented in the electorate.

“They (Labour) are worried about Mt Roskill and they should be worried,” he says.

A few days later he was more circumspect as National’s polling started to come through.

Key said National’s polling indicated that, despite there being a lot of National voters in the electorate, it “was obviously going to be a challenge”.

“But we are onward and upward. It is a big task, but not an impossible one.”

In the lead up to election day he shifted back however and again talked about how on a low poll National could still win the seat.

Mr Key said voter numbers are notoriously low in by-elections, and he doesn’t expect this one to be much different.

But he believes his candidate, Parmjeet Parmar, could win Mt Roskill if people do get down to the polls.

“We win the party vote there. Historically what you had is people vote splitting a little bit – voting Goff and National.”

Then the day before the election:

This has been a Labour seat, but I have to say Labour has taken this seat for granted, so that’s why this is a great opportunity for Mt Roskill to give this opportunity to a National MP.”

Prime Minister John Key has also downplayed National’s chances.

“We’re going in very much as the underdog. It doesn’t mean we can’t win and if we did, I think it would be the end of Andrew Little,” he said.

“But the point would be that I just think it’s a big challenge for us to win in Mt Roskill.”

But then post election Key said that he never thought National would win.

However, Prime Minister John Key has downplayed the impact of Labour’s win, saying low turnout and history meant National “never thought we’d win”.

“It was certainly as expected – we didn’t think we’d win and we didn’t win.”

“The Greens didn’t show up, NZ First didn’t show up and actually the voters didn’t show up, so you’ve had one of the lowest turnouts we’ve really seen in a mainstream by-election.”

Like everything else he says the claim that the turnout was one of the lowest in a mainstream by-election needs parsing.  At 16,857 (with special votes to count) the turnout in Mt Roskill was numerically lower than for the by elections in Mt Albert, Mana, and Northland but higher than Botany, Te Tai Tokerau, Ikaroa Rawhiti, and Christchurch East.  Even if by elections for Maori electorates are not “mainstream”, and if this is the suggestion it is appalling, the turnout looks like it was average, rather than one of the lowest.

And I sense a certain grudging acknowledgement by the media that they were suckered by the claim that Little was in trouble and Labour was in danger when the reality is that the result was a good old shellacking for National.  This pervading gloom being created by the media about Labour is a potent weapon for National.  Hopefully the Mt Roskill by election result will blow this apart because clearly the gloom is manufactured rather than real.

26 comments on “The many and varied thoughts of John Key on the Mt Roskill By election”

  1. Nick 1

    A good stomping…. Way to go Mt Roskill!!

    • lprent 1.1

      It was I expected. It just pointed how unattached John Key from auckland.

      • Keith 1.1.1

        Come on, he’s the Member of Parliament for Helensville, wherever that is!

        • dukeofurl

          The story of how he faked residency in the electorate, buying a lifestyle block but never moving into the place, all the while making a false declaration on his enrollment card that he had resided for the required 30 days minimum. Other official records at the time showed him living in Orakei Rd Remeura.
          he was a fake from the very beginning

        • Macro

          Well don’t ask John Key. I don’t think he has ever been there!

  2. Sam C 2

    It is a pity for Labour that the Mt Roskill result isn’t remotely reflected in the polls.

    Mind you, if it means Andrew Little leads Labour into the 2017 general election, then I’m sure an “unattached John Key from Auckland” will be quietly chuffed.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.1

      It is a pity for Labour that the Mt Roskill result isn’t remotely reflected in the polls.

      Considering that it’s an electorate that party votes National I do wonder at just how it relates to the polls.

      Despite all the BS coming from National now that they’ve lost (it’s part and parcel of their not taking responsibility for their actions) this should have been a shoe in for them to win.

      So, is this showing that the polls are simply wrong and that we’re really heading in to a Labour landslide next year or that National chose a simply terrible candidate.

      • alwyn 2.1.1

        This election result merely shows that history repeats.
        Remember what happened at almost exactly the same time in the last Parliamentary term.
        Poto Williams had a “stonking good win” win according the then Labour leader.

        “Labour leader David Cunliffe says Poto Williams has stormed to a “stonking good win”, which is nothing short of a triumph, and a signal that the National government is in trouble.”

        Where did that man get his peculiar vocabulary, anyway?

      • Phil 2.1.2

        Considering that it’s an electorate that party votes National

        Not really.

        In 2014, there were about 17,000 party votes for the ‘opposition’ parties (Lab+Gre+NZF) and 16,000 for the ‘status-quo government’ parties (Nat+Act+Con) .

  3. Karen 3

    This piece from Simon Wilson (the only journalist to predict the likely result) is a good analysis of the failure of the rest of the media to see what was happening in the Mt Roskill electorate.


    I think the parliamentary press in particular are living in a Wellington bubble and really do not understand what is happening in Auckland or, for that matter, in many regions in NZ.

    They continue to uncritically report Key’s political “analysis” and think they are getting insider Labour Party information when they talk to lobbyists like Phil Quin and Josie Pagani. All the nonsense about Nick Leggot being a loss to Labour shows how little they know.

    • Keith 3.1

      Quite a refreshingly honest report. It was like a “reality really is different from fiction” eureka moment.

      Regardless of which however nothing is going to change and we still cannot expect anything remotely sensible, observant or insightful from the likes of Audrey Young, Claire Trevett, Stacey Kirk or Tracy Watkins, let alone Henry, Hosking or the rest of ZB!

    • Nick 3.2

      Heres a media headline….”Natz get Labours dead Wood and Mt Roskill gets a new Kauri” ….beginning of the end for the Natzi party

  4. save nz 4

    All Key’s lies are catching up with him, as is his migration strategy which is now so obvious even the MSM, their pet economic advisors, treasury and the public can’t ignore it.

    In my view Labour is on the up. They are returning to the centre and they are focusing on local interests. Mike Wood epitomised that.

    Democracy is about achieving the most votes for the majority. A look at the statistics below show that once National lose the Pakeha homeowners to Labour or who ever else fights for their votes, National’s fortunes will turn and Labour’s will rise.

    2013 Statistics

    74.6 European or Other
    15.6 Maori
    12.2 Asian
    7.8 Pacific
    Middle Eastern/African 1.2

    According to the 2013 New Zealand census, the ethnic breakdown of Auckland was as follows:

    New Zealand European: 59.3%
    Pacific Islander: 14.6%
    Asian: 23.1%
    Maori: 10.7%
    Middle Eastern/Latin American/African: 1.9%
    Other: 1.2%
    “New Zealander:” 8.0%

    In 2014, 33% rented, 33 percent owned with a mortgage and 31% owned without a mortgage.

  5. rsbandit 5

    This is the turning point for Labour. Change nothing. The people are warming to Little.

  6. Sam C 6

    “that once National lose the Pakeha homeowners to Labour”?

    Good luck with that. Pakeha homeowners are really going to vote for a party who wants to tax them more, introduce a CGT and God only knows what else. That’s why Labour are mired in the 20s when it comes to polling. They couldn’t be more disconnected from Pakeha homeowners.

    • Doogs 6.1

      Well Sam, do pray tell why pakeha homeowners are so fucking important, despite the fact that I am one of them? And I am assuming that you are talking about pakeha homeowners who live in their own homes, not the fat whitey slugs who own a portfolio of “renters” so they can gouge money from poor people who can’t afford it.

  7. Infused 7

    My prediction for next year is that Labour is going to get a thrashing. The left in general. So much, in fact, I don’t believe NZF will have a part to play.

    I was worried at the beginning of the year, but it seems minds are made up already.

    edit: nope, I take that back now. lol

    • Tamati Tautuhi 7.1

      Which parties will fill the vacuum if it’s not Labour and NZF, Key resigning must be reading the tea leaves?

  8. Paul Campbell 8

    Well obviously his heart just wasn’t in it

  9. wellfedweta 9

    It’s a very long stretch to claim the comments credited to Key over the course of the by-election are ‘varied’. They all seem remarkably consistent.

  10. JanM 10

    He’s gone – yeah !!!!!!

  11. save nz 11

    Key leaving the sinking ship!!

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Wairoa gets up to $6.1m to rebuild heart of CBD
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing up to $6.1 million to revitalise business and tourism opportunities in Wairoa, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The PGF is funding: Up to $4.8 million for the Wairoa Integrated Business and Tourism Facility Up to $960,000 for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Major Events support for creative and cultural events
    Creative and cultural events that highlight New Zealand’s diverse culture and build national pride are set to get a funding boost through the Major Events Fund, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford said today. The new Creative and Cultural Events Incubator, which is funded through the Major Events Fund, will open ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Classroom internet in hundreds of schools to get a boost
    The Government has begun a massive IT upgrade to provide more seamless internet access to 200 schools around the country. Te Mana Tūhono – Technology in Schools work programme will launch with a pilot of 10 smaller state schools early this year. IT equipment that gives students access to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Construction workforce, apprenticeships hit record highs
    Working with industry and committing to rebuild New Zealand’s infrastructure has produced a record high number of Kiwis working in the construction industry and learning trades, says Minister for Building and Construction Jenny Salesa. New figures available today from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and the Tertiary Education ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • NZ concludes digital economy trade talks with Singapore and Chile
    A new trade agreement concluded today helps New Zealand exporters and consumers take advantage of opportunities from digital trade.    Minister for Trade and Export Growth David Parker together with Chile’s Vice Minister of Trade Rodrigo Yañez and Singapore’s Minister of Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing, have announced conclusion of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Provincial Growth Fund to fund Waipukurau cultural development and tourism
    The Ngā Ara Tipuna -  Waipukurau Pā Site Interpretation project will receive $2.798 million from the Provincial Growth Fund to create an authentic cultural tourism experience, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today “The project will inform visitors about the history of six pā sites in Waipukurau with a combination ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • 21 new judges boost diversity, improve access to justice
    Twenty-one new District Court judges have been appointed in a move that will improve access to justice and boost diversity on the bench. The new judges include replacements for retirements and 10 new positions. Attorney-General David Parker today announced the 14 judges who can immediately be named, with the remainder ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Puhinui to Auckland Airport in 10 minutes
    Aucklanders are another step closer to getting rapid transit to the airport, with the start of construction to upgrade State Highway 20B to the airport, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. SH20B will be upgraded with additional lanes in each direction, dedicated to bus and high-occupancy vehicles between Pukaki Creek ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Advancing New Zealand’s trade agenda focus of Europe meetings
    World Trade Organisation reform, agricultural trade and a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom will be the focus of Minister for Trade and Export Growth David Parker’s visit to Europe this week. David Parker leaves on Tuesday for a series of meetings in the UK and Switzerland that aim ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister of Defence to visit counterparts in US and Canada
    The Minister of Defence, Ron Mark, departed today for the United States and Canada where he will meet with his counterparts.  While in Canada Minister Mark will meet with his counterpart, Minister of National Defence Harjit Sajjan.  “New Zealand and Canada are close friends, and share an instinctive like-mindedness on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government to deliver family carers $2000 pay rise, expand scheme to spouses this year
    The Coalition Government is delivering this year the changes to Funded Family Care the disability sector has long-asked for, says Associate Minister of Health Jenny Salesa. “Today we are announcing the details of our big changes to Funded Family Care, including an annual average pay boost of $2,246.40 for funded ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Ko te reo kua mū: Piri Sciascia
    Minister for Māori Development Nanaia Mahuta joins te ao Māori in their sorrow as they learn of the loss of one of the great orators and spokespersons of a generation – Piri Sciascia.  “The son of Pōrangahau was a staunch advocate for Māori development and served his people for over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new ecosanctuary at Cape Farewell
    A new ecosanctuary with a predator proof fence on Golden Bay’s Cape Farewell, which will restore a safe home for sea birds, rare native plants, giant snails, and geckos, was officially opened today by the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “There has been a fantastic community effort supported by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Pacific partners work together to provide additional support to Australia
    The NZDF continues to support the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles fires in Victoria and New South Wales, including by transporting Republic of Fiji Military engineers from Nadi to Australia, announced Defence Minister Ron Mark. On Saturday morning a NZDF Boeing 757 will depart New Zealand to uplift ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Kaikōura $10.88 million boost in tourism & business
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $10.88 million to boost business and tourism opportunities in Kaikōura, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Regional Economic Development, Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. As part of the Kaikōura Marina Development Programme, the following two projects will receive PGF funding: A $9.88 million investment to begin the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt accounts in surplus, debt remains low
    The Government’s books are in good shape with the accounts in surplus and expenses close to forecast, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown accounts for the five months to November. The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was above forecast by $0.7 billion resulting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Auckland focus for first Police graduation of 2020
    The number of Police on the Auckland frontline is increasing with the graduation today of a special locally-trained wing of new constables. Police Minister Stuart Nash says the graduation of eighteen officers from Recruit Wing 333-5 means that more than 1900 new Police have been deployed since the Coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Wairarapa gets $7.11m PGF water boost
    The Provincial Growth Fund is putting $7.11 million into creating a sustainable water supply for Wairarapa, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The following two projects will receive Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) funding: A $7 million investment in Wairarapa Water Limited for the pre-construction development of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Progress with new Police station in Mahia
    Community safety and crime prevention in the East Coast community of Mahia has moved forward with the opening of a new Police station to serve the growing coastal settlement. Police Minister Stuart Nash has officially opened the new station, which was relocated almost 20 kilometres along the coast from the nearby ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Plans to protect the future of whitebaiting announced
    With several native whitebait species in decline the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage has today released proposals to standardise and improve management of whitebait across New Zealand. “The need for action for a healthy whitebait fishery has never been greater,” Eugenie Sage said.  “Four of the six whitebait species are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New resource for schools to increase awareness and understanding of climate change
    A new Ministry of Education resource available for schools in 2020 will increase awareness and understanding of climate change, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The resource, Climate Change – prepare today, live well tomorrow, will help students understand the effects of climate change at a local, national and global ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Getting more out of our most productive firms
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has approved the terms of reference for an Inquiry into the economic contribution of New Zealand's frontier firms. Frontier firms are the most productive firms in the domestic economy within their own industry. “These firms are important as they diffuse new technologies and business practices into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • NZDF sends more support to Australia
    The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is sending an Environmental Health Team, a Primary Health Care Team and a Chaplain to Australia, boosting New Zealand support for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles bush fires in Victoria and New South Wales, Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand joins partners in calling for full investigation into air crash in Iran
    Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters says that developments suggesting a surface-to-air missile is responsible for the downing of the Ukrainian International Airlines flight in Iran is disastrous news. “New Zealand offers its deepest sympathies to the families of the 176 victims. It is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Staying connected to Australian agriculture
    Agriculture Minister, Damien O’Connor, says the Ministry for Primary Industries is continuing to stay connected to federal authorities in Australia as devastating fires affect the country.  “The Ministry is using an existing trans-Tasman forum for discussions on the agricultural impact of the fires and the future recovery phase,” says Damien ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Investment in schools – a commitment to communities
    Thousands of school-age children, their teachers and wider communities are benefiting from the Government’s multi-million dollar investment upgrading and renewing schools, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “We want New Zealand to be the best place to be a child and that means learning in warm, comfortable and modern classrooms,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Defence Force sends support to Australia
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark today announced New Zealand is sending three Royal New Zealand Air Force NH90 helicopters and crew, and two NZ Army Combat Engineer Sections as well as a command element to support the Australian Defence Force efforts in tackling the Australian fires.  The New Zealand Defence Force ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Better access to books for blind and low vision citizens on World Braille Day
    "Today is World Braille Day and I am delighted to announce that an international treaty giving blind and low vision New Zealanders access to books and literary works comes into force today,” Minister for Disability Issues Carmel Sepuloni announced today. “Today the Marrakesh Treaty and the associated amendments to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Zealand to send further firefighter support to Australia
    The New Zealand Government is sending a further 22 firefighters to help fight the Australian fires. “The devastation caused by these fires is taking a substantial toll on our Australian neighbours and we will continue to do what we can to assist as they deal with this extremely dynamic, dangerous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago