The truth behind job numbers

25 comments on “The truth behind job numbers ”

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1. Incognito 1

   25 July 2017 at 7:36 am

   Good piece!

   What’s needed is a change of government. We need a government that does not import slave labour immigrants to compete with and crowd out Kiwis, often the young and inexperienced. [Crikey, I’m starting to sound like a NZ1 supporter]

   The current situation is not accidental but entirely by design; thank you National for 9 years of backpedalling.
2. Keith 2

   25 July 2017 at 8:00 am

   If job growth is as spectacular as Goldsmith claims, how can we have unemployed at all?

   How is it there is not a worker shortage?

   Why is wage growth essentially frozen with such demand and such competition?

   Could it be another National Party Minister is lying to us, again?
   • Richard Christie 2.1

     25 July 2017 at 2:54 pm

     how can we have unemployed at all?

     ’cause unemployed NZ’ers are all drug addled losers, according to their PM.
3. Tamati Tautuhi 3

   25 July 2017 at 8:20 am

   Job Statistics are meaningless if we change the criteria, we should be measuring the statistics the same way we did in the early 1900’s ?
4. Nic the NZer 4

   25 July 2017 at 8:20 am

   The next government should introduce a policy which targets the unemployed and underemployed. A job guarantee meaning anybody who wants a job or more hours can access paid work. This would make for a fairer job market as the alternative to low paid private sector work is still a job. It would probably eliminate zero hour contracts too when employers find employees otherwise occupied for short notice work hours.
5. One Anonymous Bloke 5

   25 July 2017 at 8:26 am

   Obviously the solution is to cancel the Household Labour Force Survey.
   • lprent 5.1

     25 July 2017 at 8:56 am

     That would be a typical National party response. And I guess that you haven’t read this..

     http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1103/The-new-sexy-Government-department-Scott-Simpson-statistics-census.htm

     A little noticed relatively minor new spending allowance in last week’s Budget is actually the first indication of what is likely to be a major and radical upheaval in one of the most basic of Government functions.

     $4.5 million over three years is small change in the overall Budget context.

     The money is to be allocated to the Stats NZ Census Transformation project.

     Ultimately this is designed to end the five –yearly process where papers are dropped off at each house and filled in with data about who lives there and how they live.

     Once that happens, I’d say that a more acceptable survey technique to replace the household survey would be the next target.
     • ianmac 5.1.1

       25 July 2017 at 9:09 am

       The Nelson/Marlborough office of Stats NZ is being closed. Effective from March 2018. (Before or after the next Census?)
     • dukeofurl 5.1.2

       25 July 2017 at 6:26 pm

       Its still necesary to vist every possible residence, otherwise you dont know what you dont know.- Its that house empty this mont or are they just away for weekend?

       Last time I filled my forms online after they left the package for the paper forms.

       They still came knocking a couple of times looking for results- but I was away for various reasons.
       I considered even if they knew I had filled in online they were paid for the houses they visited so the incentives were to collect anyway.

       Im more worried about the data still containing personification, as they have blurred the lines about removing things like names and addresses fairly soon when processed. This is where David Thiels business coincided with NZ Census data. Could that be the reason he took citizenship, so his company Palaintir was not considered ‘foreign’
   • dukeofurl 5.2

     25 July 2017 at 6:16 pm

     Cancel the HLF ?

     Thats already happened
     http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/income-and-work/employment_and_unemployment/household-labour-force-survey-info-releases.aspx

     The last release was 2014 and they note :
     Note: We have discontinued this release. Content previously available in the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) release is now available in:

     Labour Market Statistics
6. Tamati Tautuhi 6

   25 July 2017 at 8:33 am

   NZF tried to introduce a Bill through Parliament to get the 95,000 unemployed between 15-25 years old into Government organised work schemes and training however this was voted down by National & the Greens ?

   Go figure that one out ?
   • Nic the NZer 6.1

     25 July 2017 at 9:21 am

     Really unimpressed by the Green party if that is true. Unsurprised in the case of National.
7. The decrypter 7

   25 July 2017 at 8:43 am

   Todds hours of work are limited.
8. patricia bremner 8

   25 July 2017 at 8:54 am

   Well, we are being prepared to step aside for cheaper robots.
   We are “The Experiment”.
   That is why our capitalist “Successes” are lauded and our societal failures are poorly counted. imo.
9. RedLogix 9

   25 July 2017 at 9:05 am

   This is just a modern version of the old ‘labour pool’ days. Employers shift the risk onto workers while retaining the rewards for themselves. It’s very common everywhere, in all industries, at all levels of employment. It’s the big thing in HR circles these days.

   There are quite a few job placement companies active in this space.

   It’s not all bad if the worker does pick up some of the reward. If say you’re paid $35/hr as a full-time employee, then as a contractor you need to be paid at least double this to reflect the extra risk and costs. OK if you have the skills that are in demand, or the flexible hours suit your lifestyle. Not so hot if you have a fat mortgage and young family.

   What can work well is for employers to pay a monthly retainer which covers essential living costs, with a guaranteed minimum number of days over and above that.

   The problem for lower skilled workers is the huge asymmetry of power in the relationship. Worse still when there is a job placement/labour hire company in the loop, essentially acting as the employers agent. I’d imagine unions have left a big opportunity on the table by not getting into this space themselves.
   • Draco T Bastard 9.1

     25 July 2017 at 2:56 pm

     I’d imagine unions have left a big opportunity on the table by not getting into this space themselves.

     I’m pretty sure that would turn them into guilds and they’re illegal.

     The laws have been set to benefit the capitalists by removing the power of the workers.
     • RedLogix 9.1.1

       25 July 2017 at 4:08 pm

       The wiki page on guilds is an interesting read:

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guild

       While very few guilds still exist in their original form, there are plenty of professional organisations (law, medicine, engineering, etc) that are indistinguishable from them.
10. Ad 10

    25 July 2017 at 9:06 am

    +100 Cheers Rob and Mr Munro
    • ianmac 10.1

      25 July 2017 at 9:14 am

      And to Stuart Munro who raised this for UK yesterday.
      “Stuart Munro 3
      24 July 2017 at 8:02 pm

      Interesting walkthrough of the falsity of employment stats

      https://www.businessinsider.com.au/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=UK&IR=T “
      • Jono 10.1.1

        25 July 2017 at 4:51 pm

        So true the Natz must be following the same methods as the conservatives in the Uk. Lies damn lies and stats…
11. Carolyn_nth 11

    25 July 2017 at 9:10 am

    Quoted in the above post:

    He points to recent research for the Ministry of Social Development that shows only a third of those who came off welfare benefits during the year to June, 2011, were in employment two years later.

    ”They find themselves having to take up insecure, part-time or short-term jobs and many end up unemployed again or underemployed.”

    So this is where the punitive, sanction-laden, benefit system, touted by Paula Bennett, Bling, Shonkey, et al has taken us!
12. Philj 12

    25 July 2017 at 9:24 am

    Very informative journalism. Nothing really surprising if you pay attention to what is really happening. What is surprising is that it’s not surprising to many.
13. Stuart Munro 13

    25 July 2017 at 10:34 am

    “History is a constant race between invention and catastrophe. Education helps but it’s never enough. You also must run.” Frank Herbert.

    NZ governments haven’t run for a generation.
    • Psycho Milt 13.1

      25 July 2017 at 11:03 am

      Your excellent link from yesterday is relevant to this post: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=UK&IR=T

      TL/DR: When unemployment is genuinely low, you can expect to see wages rising. If they’re not rising, and not even keeping up with inflation, what you have isn’t low unemployment but fake unemployment figures. Applies to NZ right now as much as it does to the UK, and for the same reason: Tories running the country.
      • Draco T Bastard 13.1.1

        25 July 2017 at 3:03 pm

        +111

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