This can’t go on

Written By: - Date published: 12:03 pm, December 13th, 2011 - 18 comments
Categories: disaster, Economy - Tags:

140 more jobs have been lost in Christchurch. Employment in the region had already fallen by 26,800 in the year to September. DoL research says that 18% of surviving businesses cut staff due the earthquakes, 40% lost revenue, 50% survived with government support, and 28% a finding they are losing more staff. The economy is dying, not rebuilding.

NZIER’s Shamubeel Eaqub says

“What we’re saying is because of the delays, the issues of insurance … the on-the-ground situation is still pretty tough. How much you need to do (for the rebuild) is going to be very dependent on how much demand there is … “The longer we wait the more businesses and more people are leaving”

The latest Consensus Forecasts show the outlook deteriorating once again. The 4% growth next year that National promised is slashed to 3% and likely to be lower. NZIER says it will be just 1.5%.

The country as a whole is becoming more dependent on the rebuild to create jobs and growth but the start date for the rebuild keeps getting pushed out further and further.

The longer that this is left to happen – and, yes, I mean left, the delays are due to the government not getting the insurance situation sorted – the less demand will be left for any rebuild. The people and the money will go, mostly to Australia and Auckland. Handled wrongly – ie as it has been so far – we could see a second round of economic trauma as people who were relying on the rebuild also give up and leave. Already, jobs are being lost because of the lack of rebuilding work, including 40 at a mill in Upper Hutt.

Laissez faire disaster management hasn’t worked. It’s time for Gerry Brownlee to get off his arse and do the the things we’ve been telling him need to be done all alone. For the sake of Christchurch’s future, and the whole country.

18 comments on “This can’t go on ”

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  1. queenstfarmer 1
    13 December 2011 at 12:21 pm

    Christchurch gave the Govt a pretty resounding endorsement in the election a couple of weeks ago. Most people recognise there are major inherent challenges, and clearly did not buy into Labour’s desperate attempts to make cheap political gains from it.

    • marsman 1.1
      13 December 2011 at 12:25 pm

      The main challenge being an inept administration!

    • vto 1.2
      13 December 2011 at 12:41 pm

      Mr Queen, I need to repeat a point made on open mike and which I suggested would happen prior to the election. The people of Chch have been bashed and smashed and now live a life of complete uncertainty. The last thing they want is a change of government – they want stability. The so-called endorsement of National in Chch was nothing of the sort – it was a drive for keeping things stable. If labour had been the government they would have been subjected to the same swing.

      2c from the depths

    • Blighty 1.3
      13 December 2011 at 1:24 pm

      earthquake.

      Turnout in Christchurch was down 10%, compared to 3.6% in the rest of the country.

      There was 20,700 fewer votes cast in Christchurch Central and the surrounding electorates than in 2008. 20,200 fewer for Labour+Greens.

      Pretty clear that a lot of people in the working class areas – the worst-affected – have left Christchurch and didn’t vote. Many have gone overseas.

  2. Jimmy 2
    13 December 2011 at 12:50 pm

    It can, and it will…

    The latest job losses from the Medlabs are an over simplification, as these result from the end of a contract. The work will still need to be done, and a fair chunk of those workers will likely be reemployed by the new providers.

  3. Spratwax 3
    13 December 2011 at 1:19 pm

    Indeed, Christchurch voted unanimously in favour of National and Gerry Browlee’s splendid job and are happy with the progress being made.

    This is how the Government view the election results in Chch (using the same analogy that Key uses for assett sales) and probably how the rest of the country view it as well.

    • Colonial Viper 3.1
      13 December 2011 at 1:28 pm

      Yep National’s done a good job and were rewarded by the voters of Christchurch. Congrats Key and Brownlee, you really came through for the Garden City.

  4. henry olongo 4
    13 December 2011 at 2:29 pm

    queenstreet farmer you are talking absolute bs.
    Your ‘see no, hear no…’ analysis is well wide of the mark. In fact there is no analysis- there is no mandate for nact in chch- what happened was thousands of the most vulnerable residents didn’t vote-because they aren’t here.

  5. XChequer 5
    13 December 2011 at 2:35 pm

    By that reasoning, henry, that means they were “elsewhere” and Labour would have got their vote regardless.

    It appears, however, that they didn’t as Labour did very poorly.

    Ergo, your assessment is a bit “loopy” too

  6. vto 6
    13 December 2011 at 2:57 pm

    It will go on until insurance comes back.

    It is incredibly simple.

    Which leads to my pick that if, by late summer, insurance is not back then politics dictates that the government will be required to step in with an insurance scheme. Alternative is a speeding up of the slow but steady drain of people which is bad for the entire aotearower.

    Everyone is optimistic that insurance is coming back in February but sheesh the pessimism in me says ‘doubt it’. They will be swanning on their 50′ motor boats right through Auckland Anniversary and Waitangi Day before they return to office, let along turn their reluctant heads to the hardest issue in the land.

    Having said that, there is some massive new business available for anyone who wants to pick up some insurance biz. Pre-earthquake, say, 100,000 houses payng on average, say, $1,000 p.a. equals $100,000,000 income each and every year. No small cheeses …

    • Fotran 6.1
      14 December 2011 at 2:13 pm

      Almost all insurance, other than AMI, is overseas owned and managed.
      Who sold off State Insurance to the Poms, who onsold to the Aussies ?
      NZI is Aussie owned, Vero is Aussie owned. QBE is Aussie owned.

  7. the pink postman 7
    13 December 2011 at 3:35 pm

    The voters of Christchurch certainly swung to,the right.its seems they have a weird desire to be punished. I fell very sorry for the unfortunatre citizens of Christchurch and I wish them well. But in voting Tory they will only get what they deserve and I just have to watch with sorrow

    • The Voice of Reason 7.1
      13 December 2011 at 3:49 pm

      I haven’t seen the stats yet, Postie, but I think the problem was the exodus from the city of young families, particularly in the eastern suburbs and central city. It wasn’t so much that Chch turned right, it was that the left left town. And Clayton Cosgrove was hamstrung by boundary changes, which made Waimak bluer than it had previously been. And it had always been blue, it was just that Clayton had done a great job of winning over the middle of the road voters as well as core Labour folk, until now.

      • DS 7.1.1
        13 December 2011 at 5:57 pm

        +1

        The polling booths in the worst affected areas: Christchurch East, the eastern parts of Christchurch Central and Kaiapoi township went Labour.

  8. henry olongo 8
    13 December 2011 at 7:30 pm

    XChequer you will never make chancellor with that fuzzy logic!
    Hundreds possibly thousands of people have left ChCh for Australia in the last 6 months. Many more are residing around NZ. People who have moved away are far less likely to vote…breaking news buddy- NZ had a shockingly low turnout at the general election…capice?

  9. randal 9
    14 December 2011 at 2:22 pm

    well the left better come back and smartly.
    kweewee and his gang are about to wreck anything that is good in this country by comoddifying anythng and everything they can get their hands on.

  10. Jester 10
    15 December 2011 at 10:54 am

    Interesting that with a wide brush all non voters are tagged as Labour voters and that everyone who has left comes from working class areas and therefore by default are Labour supporters.

    I think you will find that there is a broad cross section of classes who have left Christchurch and not just working class true red voters. Take a look at the geographical map of red zone. Also the argument that people who left didn’t vote is only partly correct judging by the increase in specials this cycle.

    People didn’t vote in Chch because of apathy. When you have been rolled bowled and arseoled for 12 months an election is down the list of importance.

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