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8:38 am, July 5th, 2024 - 98 comments
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Update: Jeremy Corbyn has been re-elected in his electorate as an independent candidate.
A generic post to cover the United Kingdom election results as they come in.
Looks like the Conservatives will be hammered. One can only hope …
And for those nostalgic for 1997 remember this?
Update: exit polls suggest Labour 410 seats, 131 Conservative, 61 Lib Dem, 13 Reform, 10 SNP …
Update: Larry the Cat (resident of 10 Downing Street) is very poetic …
And now, the end is near
The Tories face the final curtain
The exit poll made it clear
Conservative defeat is now certain
They’ve pinched a bucket-full
Left holes on each and every highway
And less, much less than this
They made their lies pay
Good days, they’ve had so few
But then again, too few to mention
Ignored what they had to do
Shirked responsibility without exception
They fought fake culture wars
Flogged infrastructure off to Huawei
And less, much less than this
They made their lies pay
Yes, there were times,
I’m sure you’ll mourn
Like the MP caught with tractor porn
After four leaders, left with just Rishi
Bets on the election all very fishy
You voted Labour, I’ve got a new neighbour
Time to do things my way!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/04/exit-poll-result-keir-starmer-labour-on-course-to-win-historic-uk-election-victory
Hardly 'historic' for Labour
Its predicted that Starmer will have about the same number of seats that Blair won (418) in 1997.
of course what is historic is the low for conservatives – for obvious reasons. The SNP seats in Westminster will also collapse
John Curtice, the famous expert on UK elections, says that Starmer's Labour is heading for a vote of less than Jeremy Corbyn's 40 per cent in 2017.
BG, if you're still holding a torch for Corbyn, douse it in your pint.
This victory is for the Labour Party.
Summarised from The Guardian
With 545 constituency results declared:
"Compass, the leftwing group committed to pluralism, has said tonight’s election results show the first past the post voting system is not fit for purpose. [Compare LibDems 50 seats at 11% of vote, vs Greens get 2 with 6.8%.].
"Lawson also said the early results pointed to a Gallagher index score (a measure of disproportionality) of around 23, which he said suggested “this election could be the most disproportionate we have ever seen”."
Worthwhile looking at global Gallagher Index scores. NZ sits high in our closeness of actual vote to seats, ie a good proportional voting system. Oz, with its strange ranked voting, looks worse off in reflecting Parliament seats with electors' choices.
Of course, Reform would bite off the biggest chunk in minority parties, essentially splitting the right of centre vote.
Some other system, couldawaoulda, somethingsomething.
MMP in this election would return the most rightwing government that UK has ever had.
Get a grip.
Nope, disagree. Lib Dems would be well out of it, after their previous shaming coalition with what was then at least a Tory party capable of administering the country. The Tory lineup now has zero administrative talent, plus I bet LibDems would have had to promise no Coalition with the Right to get significant votes, as their support comes from disgruntled centrists.
And a 2-vote electorate/party system would generate a different voting profile to that seen with UK FPTP.
Also tactical support by Labour voters of LibDems wouldn't have happened. I am guessing perhaps 10-20% of LD vote might fall into this category.
Tactical voting is not required where there is preferential voting.
A fairer system can also be realised by SM.
500 electorates. 125 SM.
SM Result
43 Labour, Tory 30, Reform 18, LD 15 Green 9.
Labour would have over 300-340 (depending on preferential voting changes) of the 500 electorates. Thus still have an overall majority.
The UK should adopt a moderate reform along those lines.
I think peferential voting is a crap system, less reflective of people's primary choice than ours. NZers can vote for both their local representative AND party preference, rewarding those MPs who care for their electorate, while supporting political positions they prefer.
In PV, 60% of the vote can capture 80% of seats, as happened in Queensland. FPTP and PV. Neither FPTP or PV promote bipartisan legislative approaches, nor provide societal variety reflected in Parliament.
That's why the Gallagher Index shows Oz less reflective of electoral preference than our system.
Why did SPC not suggest an NZ system to Blair?
Preferential voting is not an electoral system of itself, it is the best option in the voting for single member electorate seats. It allows a challenge to a two party status quo in the winning of such, without tactical voting. And for the us and the UK, that is an improvement.
For mine, they should start there.
Though I would add SM to ensure small parties have a presence in their parliament.
The focus of Blair back then was to reform the House of Lords as legislation was being blocked by an un-elected Tory majority.
What about Corbyns 32% in 2019
Yes Corbyn got 40% in 2017 but the May-bot got 42%
In those years the SNP in Scotland took a big swag of previous Labour seats and votes
Islington North
Corbyn 24,120
LAB 16,873
Green 2,660
CON 1,950
REF 1,710
LD 1,661
The map here has a very cool changed hands option.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/results
The Guardian's words, not mine. Made comment as a link to the current up dates to the exit polls.
The Tories have already announced the dissolution honours nominated by the leaders of all the parties
This is just the Peerages as there are knights and dames separately
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dissolution-peerages-2024
Doesn't this happen prior to every general election in the UK?
It refers to the list submitted upon the dissolution of parliament – regardless of whether or not the previous incumbents are re-elected.
https://www.thegazette.co.uk/awards-and-accreditation/content/103854
lol
.
@JimmySecUK
Ex-employee of the Russian government, George Galloway, is projected to lose his Rochdale seat to Labour, according to the exit-poll.
https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1808981389125300533
edit:
gone
George Galloway has lost his seat 126 days after pulling off a surprise by-election victory in Rochdale.
The Worker’s Party of Britain incumbent, defending a majority of more than 6,000 votes, was defeated by Labour’s Paul Waugh.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1917543/george-galloway-rochdale-general-election-results-labour
Well that will disappoint some of his supporters here on TS
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-23-05-2024/#comment-2000631
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-future-of-uk-labour-and-what-it-means-for-aotearoa/#comment-1994736
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-future-of-uk-labour-and-what-it-means-for-aotearoa/#comment-1994744
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-01-03-2024/#comment-1991323
Good to see that your Stasi type records mean you have the details at the finger tips.
Is that part of the software that Nationals opposition research use to scape comments from all blogs , facebook twitter
Here's a great video by Jonathan Pie:
https://mountaintuihere.substack.com/p/an-ode-to-the-british-tories
If you aren't already, subscribe to his Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@JonathanPie
That was part 4 of a 5 part series of videos about the different elements to the election
Posie Parker did well lol
Posie Parker probably cozied up with Reform, like the NZ antitrans lobby did with NZ First. PP would sit there comfortably, as she has made anti-migrant and Islamophobic statements in the past.
Looking at the Guardian %s, it's very clear Reform split the RW vote. One electorate I saw in TG graphics had something like 44% Labour, 23% Reform, 25% Cons, so Labour wouldn't have got in without the split.
TG also showed how tactical voting delivered seats for Cymru Plaid party in Wales.
I think Sanctuary was being sarcastic, Parker came trailing in last in her electorate in Bristol Central
https://www.thepinknews.com/2024/07/05/posie-parker-general-election-party-of-women-deposit/
Go that Green!
https://x.com/ThatChris1209/status/1809061851042324592
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carla_Denyer
Go Jeremy!
Heh, rare is the day you see a class left MP in a bourgeois Parliamentary setting…
read and weep Rogernomes, and opportunists…
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/05/jeremy-corbyn-re-elected-in-islington-north-for-first-time-as-independent-mp?fbclid=IwY2xjawD0UZRleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfkpjTvr-MFjYz4YqLeLVDl_qh89fy2psndl_UMsQbKTMaWOTFQpJolGgw_aem_EuKGwX8YJmczQ6Biw5FLWQ
The Guardian discusses the significant influence of a pro-Palestinian vote in response to Starmer's early Gaza conflict position, where he defended Israel's cutting of food and water supplies to Gaza.
Labour lost 3 seats to pro-Gaza independent candidates standing at short notice, and cut their majority significantly in others.
As spent as Galloway. Well time Corbyn retired. Nothing left for him to do now.
Not spent, rather planning to be Starmer's conscience:
"Within minutes of his victory speech, Mr Corbyn made a passing attempt at generosity when asked about Sir Keir’s leadership. “He will become prime minister,” he said, sounding rather lukewarm about the prospect, before describing the manifesto of his former party as “thin, to put it mildly”.
Warming up, he decried the “completely undemocratic diktat from the Labour Party” that he could no longer stand for them, and promised: “I will be there holding the government to account.” “I will be one of those people who, if the government does good things, I will back them,” he told reporters. “If it fails… then I will be there speaking up."
from telegraph
If those pro-Gaza MPs don't have the sense to see what a fully sectarian electorate looks like, Sinn Feinn can give them a lesson on its consequences.
Labour's Starmer had the tactical nous to leave those toxic fools and go after a much broader set of seats. And the victory came in part from that smart choice.
If those mostly Muslim electorates saw Starmer as not only pro-Israel, but from his own words, supportive initially of Israel's illegal and geonocidal blockade of water and food supply to millions of Gazans, then good on them for abandoning him.
Starmer also kicked out local candidates who made fairly innocuous pro-Palestinian statements pre-election.
Anti-Starmer rather than anti-Labour vote. Wait and see Starmer expose his authorarian streak in office.
A powerful left government enacting strong reform is exactly what the UK needs. No complaints with that.
A good government is not a strong figurehead, it's a strong team. If Starmer used 'we' more often, hadn't completely reneged on the pledges to Party members he used to secure support, and hadn't made frankly authoritarian purges of excellent Labour candidates on the flimsiest of excuses, he would not have lost my respect.
But, like Corbyn says in his statement, if Starmer can run an effective team by being only a 30% bastard, he can claw some of my respect back too.
I do realise I have strong opinions about the politics in a country I have no vested interest in, but it's a bit of a spectator sport from this side of the world. And we can all be a bit clearer-eyed because it's not our home they're fucking up.
Europe had overtly sectarian parties after WW2 till the late 70s. Especially where the catholic- protestant were large minorities.
I seem to remember that Belgium had separate leftwing catholic and protestant parties. Nowadays their politics mostly split on language lines and separatism ( except the greens !)
Very low voter turn out of near 60% – of that Labour got roughly 40%
That calculates to 60% x .40 = 24% of the voting public actually voted for Labour. 40% did not vote at all so nearly double the numbers said a Pox on ALL your houses and voted for nobody at all!
It is only the First Past the Post electoral system which gave Labout their "majority" of the seats in Parliament.
Labour must deliver to that "silent" 40% or risk a backlash next time around.
Sir rodney already delivered for his major backers (the establishment) by getting elected for continuity purposes.
They really don't.
Didn't vote, unlikely to vote, don't complain.
"24% of the voting public actually voted for Labour"
In totalitarian countries it was 99% turnout.
Think of it like opinion polls, where a small number is statistically representative of all the electorate
24% is a massive opinion poll that is still representative of the 'voting public'
Gone by lunchtime: smug parvenu and Johnson-lover, Rees-Mogg ; anti-migrant Shapps; Penny Mordant, sword-carrier and leadership hopeful; lazy Therese Coffey, including eight current Ministers in all. Attack-dog Badenoch stays, though.
And at 07.55 of Guardian live coverage fantasist Truss's moment of loss captured on film.
the only election coverage you need…
Euro News brief analysis of the fragility of Labour's win.
Red Wall seats lost in 2019 to Tories did not go back to Labour, but over to Farage. The vote split between Tories and Reform let Labour sneak in.
Grant's corporate masters will be delighted if and when Labour's majority is washed away by the next storm that hits the UK.
Can have corporate masters but still make a fair analysis supported by the facts.
Grant is right.
A 'feature' of First Past the Post is that it enables a fuck you vote within one of the major groups. A splinter party emerges that draws support from the main party on that side, effectively killing the main party. Shades of the Bob Jones party here in 1984.
I would argue that it's an even bigger 'feature' of MMP.
You still have the opportunity for an entirely wasted vote (Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party) – parties which don't have a sniff of getting over the 5% threshold.
But, more importantly, you can protest vote for minor parties which are likely to achieve this goal (either through an electorate seat, or wider-spread popular appeal).
There is a perspective which regards the Greens as the left-wing splinter of Labour; and ACT as the right-wing splinter of National.
In either situation, it's very rare (although not unheard of) for the splinter party to 'kill' the main party. Although it did happen in NZ in the early part of the 20th century – with the old Liberal party support being splintered between the up-and-coming Reform (later National) and Labour parties.
Winston Churchill's father said the Tories should not fear the extension of the franchise, the Whigs/Liberals should.
According to the map, it would take an orange and red coalition to beat blue.
https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/results
Takeaways from UK election. Firstly great victory for Labour but interesting they only got 35% of the vote. Glad Reform only got 4 seats – Greens with 4 most seats ever, Lib Dems big increase ; glad Jezza gets another five years, but just note he is older than me (given we've been talking a lot about age lately in politics). Would be interesting to see how this all translates in an MMP kind of system. Labour now has to deliver ; that is where the real hard work begins.
34%.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nglegege1o
A wise PM would have co-operation agreements with the LD and Green parties – together over 50% of the vote.
Thats not what the contest was about.
The name of the game was to win a majority of the seats in the Commons
No chance of cooperation agreement with LD or Greens when Labour has over 400 seats out of 650.
Cant compare too much with previous elections as the boundaries were changed before this election and the previous boundary changes were based on reviews nearly 20 years back
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies
An often ignore factor in NZs electorate seats is boundaries (here are done after every census) and some places have significant changes
The purpose of co-operation agreements with LD and Green would be to
1affirm mandate
2..position for a coalition in 2029, should this be necessary.
A Conservative-LD coalition being an alternative in 2029, if they do not.
They might not do it, but it is the right option.
The first to imply continuance of the institutions of government (abandoned by the Conservative Party) and the second necessary progress.
This allows Labour to be itself, as per sustaining government capability and public delivery – UND of HR (1948) – education, health, housing and adequate income.
PS. I advised Blair (1998) to move to preferential voting electorates and have SM (125 seats awarded at 0.8% of a party list vote). Jenkins agreed, Blair did not and one went to the European Parliament.
Neither necessary nor useful to Labour.
Starmer as a senior civil servant knows perfectly well how to strengthen institutions of state.
Not really a civil service bureaucrat, he was an adviser to a policing board in NI and was appointed Director of Public Prosecutions – an outsider brought in because of his legal background in the human rights aspects of law.
If anything it is that experience, coming in as an outsider, that might help in the strengthening of the capability of government to deliver.
But the continuance of the institutions of the realm is broader than that. And here it is not Labour doing what is is useful to Labour … . This includes being reliable and responsible in government in exercise of executive power. And partnership agreements would serve to secure mandate.
So Greens and Reform both have 4 seats each.
Not exactly a significant minority in parliament (yes, I know the FPP environment makes this harder in the UK).
But you can hardly trumpet the GP result as the 'most seats ever' and ignore that the same applies to the Reform party.
At 33.8%, 1.6% more than Labour under Corbyn.
Yeah a low turnout definitely.
I take from this, and the election of several independents across the country that Britains are getting just a bit tired of the same old party politics.
There are (currently) 5 Independent MPs.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_minor-party_and_independent_MPs_elected_in_the_United_Kingdom
Looking at the profiles, most, if not all, are protest votes against the Labour policy on Israel/Gaza. So, one issue candidates. The only real exception is Corbyn.
33.8% of 60% means less people voted for Labour than in 2019.
21.67% in 2019 and 20.28% in 2024.
Terrific outcome for causal relations in politics: massive landslide produced by a fifth of the electorate – with the tacit support of a significantly large bunch of rightist splitters. X+Y=Z. Also interesting that 6 parties have been featured in the framing of the outcome, so there's a hexad forming UK politics just like here in Aotearoa where we have 3 rightist parties in govt & 3 leftist in opposition.
That fifth that seems primary cause of the landslide points to a pentad of course, and 5 is inherently creative, as in the opposable thumb of primate evolutionary fame, so let's hope that this 5 produces creative ethos in British Labour…
Reform will be outlier like the AFD in Germany and the Le Pen party in France (unless they win against the coalition arrayed against them).
Low turnout often the case when the result was long a foregone conclusion
I have to admit that I watched live the declaration for Islington North and I shouted in glee and pummelled the air when Jeremy Corbyn was declared the winner!
You can't keep a good man down.
But a bit sobered down by the election of Britain's answer to Winston Peters – Farage.
I thought the election was for humans, not humanoids.
Tonight Wanaka's old left made honourable work of the boutique breweries in celebration of the finest win for Labour since 1993.
Shoutout to the team.
Thank goodness Corbyn won Islington North!!!!
That was the only thing I cared about, tbh.
I genuinely admire him, Diane Abbott, John McDonnell and all their comrades – I can only hope UK politics improves with more people like them in time.
More politicians should be more like them around the world.
In a way —
Corbyn should be walking around the world by now.
I am celebrating Angela Rayner as Deputy PM. Genuine working class, left school early, worked as a caregiver, trade unionist. Younger woman. Now compare that to NZ DPMs. If only they were like her.
paula bennet springs to mind
I think she is a sleeper leftie, building power within Labour. Unlike NZ, her position is voted for by Labour members, not chosen by Starmer. I wonder whether part of his leftwing purge of the party was to weaken her position in making a challenge to him.
And, unlike Bennett, she has Housing and Levelling up, financially important infrastructure portfolios.
Here's a New Statesman article last year on Keir and Angela’s backstory.
Imagine having a Deputy PM who was active in a union? Instead what we have here is an old fart who is a career politician since 1978 and a young fart who is famous for twerking and being a jerk. But btw aren’t Winston and Seymour chosen by their party?
Chosen by the NZ electorate….
It's difficult to argue that either ACT or NZF electors weren't making their vote based on the party leader.
Paula Bennett never set her foot anywhere near a union. You need to inform yourself better.
Student union…. but hardly a union of employees
Just like Grant Robertson, Jacinda Ardern & Chris Hipkins.
It's actually harder to find a Leftie NZ politician that has been involved in trade unions, than one who hasn't.
Trade unions are only a small portion of the workforce now , and even less in 'trade' unions . Mostly more professional class such as teachers , nurses , government workers
How many now in national were previously 'working farmers' …apart from Barbara Kuriger..LOL.
FYI most of the Labour MPs were or are members of unions, Mostly before but some joined when they became MPs. Jacinda joined SFWU when she was an intern in HC 's office and union liaison. She went to work as a volunteer for the SEIU in the US. I gave her a reference. Those who worked in Parliamentary Service roles all joined SFWU.
Joining a union doesn't make you 'active in a union'.
"Genuine working class, left school early, worked as a caregiver, trade unionist".
Perhaps we could compare her to the leading figures in the New Zealand Labour Party. The last one that was in this vein was Mike Moore. Since his time they have all been University Graduates who have very little experience outside University or working in an MP's or Minister's office. Andrew Little is the only leader I can think of in the last 30 years who had anything to do with a real, ie non-Student, Union.
Were there any others?
"little experience outside University or working in an MP's or Minister's office. "
Thats a lot of nationals top leadership too.
Willis for instance completed a BA, followed by Dip in Journalism, but turned down a job offer for a publication ( her mother was a Gallery journalist at the time) to work full time for the national party in parliament and did about 10-12 years at that job including writing the daily spin for John Key. There was a 'sabbatical' when she left the party cadres to be employed by Todd Muller ( later an MP himself) in Fonterra’s Corporate affairs – essentially lobbying ministers she knew in her previous work. When her mentor john Key resigned she quite Fonterra the same week to come back to Wellington to get on the Party list for the next election.
Similar path for Chris Bishop , 1st class honours in law- could have worked in any top law firm- but immediately went to work for the National party as a cadre. ( father as well was Gallery journalist) Sabbatical for a tobacco company as a lobbyist then getting onto list for parliament
I doubt any of them were members of a union,
Yes . But they were party cadres straight out of university that Alwyn seems to despise…except when they are Nats
I wont even go into the ultimate party cadre/policy analyst Seymour
"…except when they are Nats".
Your imagination is working overtime. I think that people who have done nothing else in life except in political activities really shouldn't be MPs. That is for every party.
Those people work for the benefit of their own career, not for the benefit of the country. After all, they don't have any options to fall back on.
That is for every party, not just those on the left. The difference is that in New Zealand it is much more common on the left for them to get into the highest level in their party. Key and Luxon at least had successful careers before they entered Parliament. What did Ardern and Hipkins do?
LOL. That is an arguement against letting people into power that have had "successful careers before entering Parliament".
As both of these examples show, their only skill is competently "feathering their own nests" and that of their mates.
Showing why we should never put corporate brown nosers in positions of power. They do enough damage in the private sector!
Key and Luxon just figureheads as PM .
Key was a currency trader in London and New York while Luxon brand manager for deodorants and such. Complete newbies as far as public service goes.
English was a treasury bureaucrat- and chair of the Haitaitai branch of the party in Wellington when he became an Mp for a rural area he grew up in.. but went to boarding school in Wellington.
Willis and Bishop are the actual decision makers ( remarkable for how often they get Luxon to quickly flip flop on issues) and as explained before are long time party cadres since graduation.
You said it. What, after all is a "successful career?" Does this mean anyone who isn't a business corporate and making huge amounts of money is unsuccessful? What a sorry outlook.
I only looked post-Moore but going by Wikipedia, Phil Goff left school early to work in a freezing works to save up the money to go to university and worked as a union organiser after returning from his OE.
Only Goff and Little were union staff, but there was a range of careers among leaders and deputies since Moore besides political careers – Clark and Cullen were academics, Parker, Caygill and Little were lawyers, Cunliffe was a management consultant, King was a dental nurse, Shearer, Sepuloni and Davis were teachers (Davis also a principal), Robertson, Ardern and Hipkins were policy and political advisers.
Given the last 3, I can see where the perception comes from but it's more nuanced than just being the only or even standard career pathway to Labour leadership.
+100
Rayner's the one to watch while Starmer calms the farm.
Darien Fenton.
Lesley Soper and Helen Duncan worked for the CTU.
Maryan Street PPTA.
Older G. Kelly and S. Davies.
Yes. Thanks.
How many of them were ever ranked in the top half dozen of the Cabinet rankings.
Even simpler, how many, as Ministers, were on the front bench and stayed there?
Gish galloping again
An ex Tory Party boss reckons tactical voting will be important in 2029, as will modernising its use of media platforms, remaining a broad centre-right party and
He must have heeded Peter Oborne's criticism.
https://x.com/EricPickles/status/1809295591152971954
I think it was Sidney Reilly who first said – "don't be a Nigel, better to assume a new name than be a Nigel".
And who can forget the quote of Wat Tyler, to trust a king to is to be visited by 2 knights betrayed by one – "now you know how we felt".
Oswald Farange – to nationalism, what the Ferengi are to capitalism.