Your Preliminary Parliament for 2020

58 comments on “Your Preliminary Parliament for 2020 ”

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1. Matthew Whitehead 1

   18 October 2020 at 2:43 am

   Just a note- I'm going to bed now after having published this post, so while I won't be around to moderate early in the morning, please don't make work for any other moderators who happen to beat me to checking it in the morning. I'll personally take a dim view of it.

   I hope people find these breakdowns informative!
   • weka 1.1

     18 October 2020 at 8:03 am

     thanks Matt. Good work.
   • ianmac 1.2

     18 October 2020 at 9:54 am

     Great work Matthew. Must have been hours of "after hours work." Puts everything in context.

     Interesting that the National List just reaches down to 19 and Labour List goes down to 50.
   • Matthew Whitehead 1.3

     18 October 2020 at 1:21 pm

     Dear reader, I was not even up in the morning. lol
     • Cinny 1.3.1

       18 October 2020 at 1:31 pm

       Thanks Matthew you put so much hard work into your post and it's massively appreciated by all of us. Glad you slept until after lunch you absolutely deserved to.
       • Matthew Whitehead 1.3.1.1

         18 October 2020 at 2:21 pm

         I've been on a weird schedule lately so I didn't exactly turn in as tired as it might seem, lol
2. Treetop 2

   18 October 2020 at 8:01 am

   Labour will probably do well with the special votes.

   Is it possible that another seat could be gained for Labour with the party vote?
   • Matthew Whitehead 2.1

     18 October 2020 at 1:22 pm

     It's the hardest for Labour of anyone. It's CERTAINLY possible on the back of this performance, but it would be very hard. This is WHY I point out they're the most likely to lose an MP.
3. ScottGN 3

   18 October 2020 at 8:13 am

   Whangarei could flip to Labour on specials. There’s only about 167 votes in it.
   • Treetop 3.1

     18 October 2020 at 8:32 am

     Do you know the amount of special votes cast?

     I heard approx 500,000
     • Andre 3.1.1

       18 October 2020 at 8:37 am

       Graeme Edgeler has reckons on Public Address.

       https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-20-the-special-votes/

       There he says the Electoral Commission has estimated 480,000, but they're always low.
       • Craig H 3.1.1.1

         18 October 2020 at 6:07 pm

         That 480,000 was only to the end of Friday, and didn't include specials cast on election day, so 500,000+ is a real possibility. Last election also saw 40,000 disallowed votes for people who voted on the day but weren't enrolled – this year they could enrol on the day, so that figure will be in the specials.
   • SPC 3.2

     18 October 2020 at 8:41 am

     If Reti loses Whangarei, and National lose a seat on the party list on specials then both Smith and Pugh drop off.
     • Cinny 3.2.1

       18 October 2020 at 1:34 pm

       In the two elections prior to this pugh lost her seat both times after the specials were counted. May that trend continue with the 2020 special votes 🙂
   • Matthew Whitehead 3.3

     18 October 2020 at 1:26 pm

     It's entirely possible. Combine that with potentially losing Pugh if there's a strong specials showing on the party list, and National could be having a second really bad night when the final results come in. Reti is high enough that he simply retains his list seat if he loses the electorate, so it's more of a "symbolic loss," like for Brownlee or Smith.

     I expect once the results are final we will have recount requests for Whangārei and Waiariki at the least.
4. ScottGN 4

   18 October 2020 at 8:35 am

   Yeah nearly half a million. Perhaps just a bit more than last time. They’re people who voted outside their electorate, people who enrolled and voted at the same time, and people who voted abroad.
   • Uncle Scrim 4.1

     18 October 2020 at 10:11 am

     Also I think anyone who enrolled in the last couple of months, ie after the rolls were printed?
5. Rae 5

   18 October 2020 at 8:52 am

   What a night!

   Now, Labour, if you are reading this. Bring the Greens and Maori Party, if they make it back, into the tent, because the 2023 election will be VERY different, this one IS an outlier. You need to keep your support parties profiles high, as you will most likely need them in 2023, as National WILL need ACT, no question of that. Honestly, do you really want some of those people who have made it into parliament anywhere near power?

   And spend some political capital, get back on the left side of the fence.
   • greywarshark 5.1

     18 October 2020 at 10:15 am

     Well said Rae.
6. Foreign waka 6

   18 October 2020 at 8:52 am

   I think NZ First lost as soon as the provincial fund was being misused to sway certain sections of the community for votes. It is heartening to see that this was actually perceived completely unfavorable. I also believe 3 billion (!) that is paid through debt on the next generation needs more scrutiny than handing cash out like baubles.

   Lets look for a better future that works for all and congratulations to the Labor Party for a convincing win.
   • Matthew Whitehead 6.1

     18 October 2020 at 1:28 pm

     This sort of thing never hurt them before, but it's possible that in the age of the internet, the news actually reached their potential voters a lot better than it would've otherwise, because they didn't have to watch telly news to hear about the corruption.
   • Patricia 2 6.2

     18 October 2020 at 6:04 pm

     Comments from friends and colleagues about NZ First – not happy that Winston started electioneering by continual negative comments about Labour. Supposedly his coalition partner for the last three years. By the time he realised these negative comments were bringing him down he then changed tack and started claiming success because NZ First was in government with Labour. All too late.

     Then Judith started the same style of electioneering ; nasty personal comments rather than attacking Labour policy / outcomes. We all know how that has turned out.
     • weka 6.2.1

       18 October 2020 at 6:31 pm

       My Dad voted Labour this year rather than NZF because of Ardern and Labour's general performance I think but he was very impressed with JA.
     • Matthew Whitehead 6.2.2

       18 October 2020 at 8:12 pm

       Yeah, entirely possible voters are not looking for attack politics right now and this hit NZF hard because it's basically all they do well, lol. Worth a thought. Would also have made their promise to "take out the Greens" from Parliament especially ill-advised.
7. RedLogix 7

   18 October 2020 at 9:57 am

   Not much mention so far of the remarkable Wairarapa result. A safe National seat since the invention of bicycles, it swung to Labour dramatically last night. Congrats to Kieran McAnulty and the Labour team on the ground; they must have seen their moment and worked for it.

   The changing makeup of the region, with lots of new urban people moving into the the four towns bodes well for Labour to hang on to it.

   I'd like to say I predicted this, but a decade too soon.
   • SPC 7.1

     18 October 2020 at 11:08 am

     Won by Labour in 1999 and 2002.
     • Uncle Scrim 7.1.1

       18 October 2020 at 11:41 am

       Quite right. In 1999 Georgina Beyer defeated National's Paul Henry!
       • Lettuce 7.1.1.1

         18 October 2020 at 12:14 pm

         A feat for which the nation will be eternally grateful to her.
     • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 7.1.2

       18 October 2020 at 2:16 pm

       Also held by Jack Williams (?) in the 1970s.
   • Matthew Whitehead 7.2

     18 October 2020 at 1:29 pm

     Yeah, I'm not much of a fan of the concept of electorates in general, but McAnulty is one incredibly based MP. The kind Labour needs more of, and very deserving of the win.

     Also cracked up when TVNZ mentioned Morgan's opinions of his ute, lol.
     • Cinny 7.2.1

       18 October 2020 at 1:37 pm

       I'd say that Kieran will the Minister of Agriculture one day.
       • Matthew Whitehead 7.2.1.1

         18 October 2020 at 5:29 pm

         I'm probably not the best one to weigh in on rural issues, haha, but I wouldn't mind seeing him have a tilt at a junior ministry or associate role this term.
8. Uncle Scrim 8

   18 October 2020 at 10:09 am

   So these 7 electorates finished last night with leads of under 1000 votes. Based on previous election trends, what chance any of these flipping on special votes?:

   Whangarei (Nat by 162), Auck Central (Green by 492), Northland (Nat by 742), Invercargill (Nat by 685), Waiariki (MP by 415), Maungakiekie (Nat by 580), Tukituki (Lab by 772)
   • Matthew Whitehead 8.1

     18 October 2020 at 1:32 pm

     I'd expect Whangārei to be the only one to maybe flip, given how the specials usually go for the Greens, but I'll defer to someone more expert with judging the numbers there if anyone wants to pop up. I think Waiariki is arguably close enough to flip back to Labour, but is unlikely to given how well it stabilized after the first half of counting is done. I expect that means election day voting (and therefore also probably special votes) will favour the MP there.
9. joe90 9

   18 October 2020 at 10:12 am

   The best people.

   /

   

   https://twitter.com/TheSpinoffTV/status/1315716033097859074

   The ACT Party's deputy leader is calling for high-paid public sector workers and beneficiaries to take a pay cut in order to help lower debt levels.

   Brooke van Velden was laying out the party's 'Alternative Budget' in an appearance on Newshub Nation on Saturday, and claims ACT's approach will help New Zealand recover from the economic fallout of COVID-19.

   The party's policies include abolishing the winter energy payment, scrapping KiwiSaver subsidies and putting interest back on all student loans.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/08/nz-election-2020-act-s-brooke-van-velden-calls-for-beneficiaries-public-service-workers-to-take-pay-cut.html
   • greywarshark 9.1

     18 October 2020 at 10:53 am

     Info. on Chris Baillie. Who is this man in a position of passing on learning and facts to the young and impressionable?

     google heading – thespinoff.co.nz › politics › future-act-mp-held-climate…
     5 days ago — Act Party number four Chris Baillie and leader David Seymour … climate hysteria was contributing to New Zealand's youth suicide rate. … Flick is proud to sponsor the Spinoff's Politics section and Policy …

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/121699323/act-candidate-chris-baillie-eyes-party-vote-in-nelson
     Chris Baillie – Baillie, who teaches at Nayland College and owns The Honest Lawyer, said his aim was to increase the party vote for ACT in the Nelson electorate….

     Baillie, who spent 14 years working as a police officer, said he believed his experience would be useful."I am standing because I believe in freedom, particularly free speech.

     "It seems trendy to go along with certain ways of doing things, but there are a lot of people out there who would like to say things but are too concerned about the reaction."
     As a business owner, Baillie said he believed less bureaucracy was the way forward.

     (The Honest Lawyer is an attractive brick pseudo Olde English restaurant and bar. My sister was a teacher and worked all day at it, and far into the night to fulfil the requirements of the job and do her best for her class students.)

     Act guff says Baillie is a full-time secondary teacher!
     https://www.act.org.nz/chris-baillie
     Chris is a full-time secondary teacher, former Policeman with 14 years' experience, and owner of a local hospitality venue employing 30 staff.
     He has a strong interest in sport and music, being an enthusiastic supporter of the local jazz scene.

     Baillie is head of the Learning Support Centre and that covers so many things that he must be mainly and advisor and supervisor.

     Employing school info:
     https://nayland.school.nz/curriculum/learning-support/
     Baillie is responsible for overseeing rather than teaching, a wide range of subjects. No doubt his diverse background would lead to knowledge of all these areas and enable him to speak with authority to those needing learning support in general.

     SUBJECT AREAS COVERED IN THE CENTRE INCLUDE:
     Mathematics, Literacy, Social Studies, Science, Life Skills, Music, Technology, Computers, Outdoor Education, and Art. There are also opportunities for students to be involved in education outside the classroom activities, such as Swimming, Riding for the Disabled, Work Experience, and LSC Camp.
     For more information contact Chris Baillie.
     • Cinny 9.1.1

       18 October 2020 at 1:45 pm

       baillie was my music teacher at college. He came across as cold, not very personable, conservative and lacking in charisma. It will be interesting to see how he's going to work out in the house.
   • millsy 9.2

     18 October 2020 at 12:18 pm

     Looks like Karen was a Karen before being a Karen was a thing.
   • Lettuce 9.3

     18 October 2020 at 12:42 pm

     David Seymour on Karen Chhour:

     "Karen brings the kind of perspective that needs to be heard in parliament. If we want to beat poverty and give opportunity to all, Karen is better than ten ivory tower 'experts'."

     Well that's very reassuring. Her advice about what to do if Countdown has the temerity to sell you an out-of-date jar of 'nuttela' (sic) certainly speaks volumes. Thanks Dave.
   • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 9.4

     18 October 2020 at 2:48 pm

     No. 7 on Act's list, now a member of parliament.

     Can I say, as a retired teacher of English I am appalled by the level of grammatical illiteracy displayed in this 'letter/email.'

     We are in for some exciting times watching 'poor' David try to fashion his rugby team into a formidable opposition. A gun nut, a climate denier and another writing at about a 10 year old level. And there will be revelations about the others to surface too.

     I feel he's going to earn his leader's allowance, lol.
   • CrimzonGhost 9.5

     19 October 2020 at 10:05 am

     How apt, Karen Chhour being a Karen. 1 day over expiry …whoop-de-doo!

     [Corrected user name]
10. ianmac 10

    18 October 2020 at 11:42 am

    Will Labour/Greens now use up their capital by carrying out radical reforms in Climate, Inequality, and Child Poverty and maybe Tax reform? Or will they not for fear of losing support for 2023?

    Grant did say that no big reforms will beproposed before the next election. Watch this space?
    • Matthew Whitehead 10.1

      18 October 2020 at 1:35 pm

      I am skeptical that this will be Labour's direction, but if they start moving that way I'm very ready to switch to hopeful. The reaching out to crossover ex-nats on election day and the related rhetoric made it sound a lot like the fact there have been no big policies announced by Labour is very intentional and they want to pull a Key and stay prisoner to their majority.
    • greywarshark 10.2

      18 October 2020 at 3:47 pm

      Which election? Robertson presently looks beside himself at getting another go in Parliament – reminds me of Gerry. Plump and jovial. Everything going my way.

      But mother said, no pudding till you've eaten your vegies. And you have to stay at the table until you clean your plate. That is the situation Labour is in now. So Robertson should start looking harassed by lunchtime Monday, November 23rd, allowing over a month to get special votes counted etc.
11. millsy 11

    18 October 2020 at 12:15 pm

    Very surprised to see New Plymouth go back to Labour. I thought that seat would stay blue no matter what.

    Tell you what, it is amusing to have all the farmers carry on like Labour was collectivising agriculture at gunpoint over the past 3 years, then turn around and vote them back in.
    • Uncle Scrim 11.1

      18 October 2020 at 12:44 pm

      Nice one. Not even Judith's promise to let them keep polluting rivers won them over. Maybe they like 'pretty communists' after all?
    • Matthew Whitehead 11.2

      18 October 2020 at 1:37 pm

      I mean, to be fair, it's entirely possible the same farmers that always voted Nats still did, and Labour won over the votes of basically everyone else in the community, haha. 😉 Or at least that the ones that didn’t were making a sneaky strategic vote to stop Labour having to rely on the Greens.
      • CrimzonGhost 11.2.1

        19 October 2020 at 10:12 am

        I think Labour just didn't have the right candidate or national mood until now. Harry Duynhoven was a very long lived & popular MP. I think a lot of the 2008 + recent Nat voters there were once with Labour. After Harry lost?/retired? he went on to serve a term as Mayor of New Plymouth so obviously still some personal loyalty to him plus a core of Labour support even amongst Key's rise nationally.

        [Corrected user name]
    • Sacha 11.3

      18 October 2020 at 9:36 pm

      Shows how unrepresentative that traditional mouthpieces like Fed Farmers have become – much like Ardern said in that first TV debate with Collins.
      • Ad 11.3.1

        19 October 2020 at 10:31 am

        Agree. Federated Farmers are our version of the US National Rifle Association in the 1990s.
12. Gabby 12

    18 October 2020 at 1:16 pm

    Does Nutella go off? The day after it expires?? Someone likes their free Nutella.
    • greywarshark 12.1

      18 October 2020 at 4:01 pm

      I think that the spread was called Nutella gives us a clue to what is going on here – dirty 'ops'. All just a distraction from reality – lookee over here at the Nutella outrage. But a citizen has actually been rear-ended at speed in NZ with visible damage. Mean-while the keen transport cops wave it away as beneath their responsibilities, which are car chasing, injury and death.
13. observer 13

    18 October 2020 at 1:36 pm

    It's just possible that the Greens will overtake ACT on votes (if not necessarily seats). That wouldn't change things in any practical sense, but it would be fun to correct Seymour every time he says "As the 3rd largest party …"
    • Matthew Whitehead 13.1

      18 October 2020 at 2:15 pm

      It would absolutely be possible, but it might be more than funny- ACT is the closest to getting an extra MP on the specials, although historically they don't do as well on them as some other parties.Overtaking them could bring Steve Abel into Parliament.
      • Patricia Bremner 13.1.1

        18 October 2020 at 3:30 pm

        Yes to that!!
        • Matthew Whitehead 13.1.1.1

          18 October 2020 at 5:30 pm

          (now that I've checked out Edgler's post, it's good to note ACT traditionally lose votes on the specials. This election may be an exception due to the exodus to them and new emphasis on firearms rights, but I'd guess it's more likely not to be)
14. Matthew Whitehead 14

    18 October 2020 at 5:34 pm

    Just a note that I had accidentally left in Dale Stephens in the list of "lost incumbents" for National, and that this is now corrected. He's not an incumbent, and I had temporarily included him with the intention of deleting him out of the table so as to cleanly copy-and-paste it. (I was apparently tired enough to forget I could've hidden his row before copying) I deleted Nancy Lu but forgot about Stephens apparently, lol.
15. DS 15

    18 October 2020 at 9:43 pm

    As noted above, Whangarei should probably flip on specials. Maungakiekie, Invercargill, and Northland are potential but less likely flips.

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