debt / deficit

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When ‘fiscally neutral’ costs a billion+ a year

Written By: - Date published: 8:59 am, April 5th, 2012 - 30 comments

On Monday, Key said his tax cuts have been “literally fiscally neutral”. In Parliament yesterday, Russel Norman showed Treasury documents showing the 2010 tax changes were to forecast to cost $1.1b in 4 years, actually cost $1.1b in 9 months, and the cost has grown since. Key didn’t want to hear the Treasury numbers, instead waving some ‘billshit’ put together by the Finance Minister.

ImperatorFish: Labour To Blame For Legal Costs

Written By: - Date published: 2:54 pm, April 3rd, 2012 - 8 comments

Scott at Imperator Fish has kindly given us permission to syndicate posts from his blog – the original of this post is here.

A predicted massive hike in legal costs to the Crown has forced Treasury to take another look at the Government’s accounts.

Best stick to the polling, Farrar

Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, March 19th, 2012 - 103 comments

David Farrar has had a go at David Clark for supposedly blaming (or crediting, Farrar can’t make up his mind) National for the revenue loss resulting from Labour’s 2008 tax cuts after Clark said that National’s tax cuts have sucked 2.5% of GDP out of the Crown’s revenue, widening the deficit by $5b a year. Either Farrar can’t read or he’s desperately spinning.

Nats running a $5b a year strategic deficit

Written By: - Date published: 8:38 am, March 18th, 2012 - 112 comments

Labour’s Revenue spokesman, David Clark, has picked up on a statement in IRD’s Briefing to the Incoming Minister that “2.5 percentage points of this decline [in tax take as a percentage of GDP] is attributable to policy changes”. 2.5% of GDP is $5 billion a year. So, a huge chunk of the record deficits that National is running is attributable to their tax cuts for the rich.

Pull the other one, John

Written By: - Date published: 8:16 am, March 13th, 2012 - 81 comments

Key to Mike Hosking: “New Zealand either needs to borrow more or earn more, and I’m in the camp that we need to earn more”

Meeting a need

Written By: - Date published: 10:05 am, March 9th, 2012 - 25 comments

Can anyone tell me why the Nats are spending $300m to build and $36m pa to run a 960-bed PPP prison when there are 2000 spare beds in the system and prisoner numbers are projected to fall? Or why Joyce is cutting a dirty ‘convention centre for pokies’ deal when international convention numbers are falling? Or why they’re spending $1b a year on low BCR highways when vehicle numbers are falling?

Imperatorfish – National’s toolbox Is empty

Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, March 8th, 2012 - 4 comments

Scott at Imperator Fish has kindly given us permission to syndicate posts from his blog – the original of this post is here:

This government just doesn’t have a clue how to grow the economy. National’s only tools appear to be the knife and the box of matches.

Excuses excuses

Written By: - Date published: 9:41 am, March 7th, 2012 - 32 comments

Tax revenue is down, blowing a big hole in all the government’s financial projections. The Nats are in trouble and instead of looking for solutions, they’re looking for excuses.

Nats’ debt pile hits $50b

Written By: - Date published: 6:23 am, February 21st, 2012 - 210 comments

For the first time in history, net government debt has passed $50 billion. New Zealand’s net international liabilities, the amount New Zealand owes the rest of the world, is also skyrocketing: $140 billion now, $197 billion in 2016. John Key used to say we had a growth problem, not a debt problem. With GDP per capita down 2% under National, we now have both.

Priorities

Written By: - Date published: 10:33 am, December 19th, 2011 - 25 comments

Trillions have been plowed into bailing out banks, investors, and whole countries during the economic crisis. The cost easily exceeds total investment in tackling climate change. Is it, as George Monbiot argues, that elites just look out for themselves, or are humans just incapable of perceiving the danger of large, slowly-building problems?

National’s Spending Cap Bill

Written By: - Date published: 12:13 pm, December 6th, 2011 - 11 comments

National will pass a Spending Cap Bill, under the cover of its Confidence and Supply deal with John Banks. The question isn’t if this Bill is a farcical idea that would hurt NZ if ever enforced (which it wouldn’t be) – even the arch-neoliberals in Treasury oppose it. The question is why National has no better ideas for Parliament’s precious time.

The future is already not so bright

Written By: - Date published: 9:02 am, December 6th, 2011 - 33 comments

Tax take is down, deficit is up, growth forecasts for next year are down. Nice to be told all this one week after the election, eh? Still John and Bill are relaxed and optimistic that the future will still be bright.

Grinding to a halt

Written By: - Date published: 8:12 am, December 2nd, 2011 - 30 comments

In May, they were promising growth would be 4.2% in 2012. By October, it was 3.3%. November, 2.5%. December, 1.5% …. with ‘downside risks’ aplenty. Looks like we’re going to be waiting on that brighter future a while longer. Vernon Small points out there’s no way National’s going to keep its promise to get back into surplus in 2014. When will they tell the truth?

The new hole in National’s budget

Written By: - Date published: 7:24 am, November 10th, 2011 - 99 comments

National would get the books back into the black with a $1.5b surplus 2014/15. It’s on their ads, it’s in the PREFU. So, it’s gotta be true, eh? Well, we already know they’ve cooked the books by claiming both that they would have the revenue from asset sales and the dividends from those sold assets. Now, their ETS changes have opened a second great big hole in their budget.

Nats’ $11b budget hole

Written By: - Date published: 10:52 am, November 6th, 2011 - 160 comments

Last year and the year before, the portions of the assets National wants to sell paid over $400 million in dividends. Labour estimates lost dividends from those assets would total $11 billion by 2026. That’s an $11 billion hole in National’s budgets they haven’t accounted for. When will National front up and show us the money?

Key can’t count

Written By: - Date published: 6:37 am, November 4th, 2011 - 113 comments

It’ll be interesting to see the full fiscal details from Labour today. National is planning to borrow too, the question is how much they differ by. Only $2.6b in the first term with both having net debt about $50b. That’s the alternative to selling our profitable assets to pay for capital investment. The Nats’ $17b claim is riddled with basic errors. Updated with more bad adding from Key

Drunken Seaman John Key: borrowed $40 billion in 3 years to spend on his mates

Written By: - Date published: 8:45 am, November 3rd, 2011 - 222 comments

 

Savings: National’s failing

Written By: - Date published: 9:01 am, November 2nd, 2011 - 10 comments

National have a rubbish short-term plan for Government debt: Asset Sales.

But they have no plan at all for the private debt that is forecast to blow out worse than ever under their policies. Bit like the economy in general really.

Hickey on how Key’s failing the kids

Written By: - Date published: 11:20 am, October 30th, 2011 - 15 comments

Dear Mr Key: “We are the generation born between 2002, when you became an MP, and 2011, when you won your second of four terms as Prime Minister. We wonder why you insisted on spending our inheritance to ensure you were voted back in.”… Bernard Hickey presents a chilling vision of the future. The way to avoid it is make sure that Key only gets one term.

Do you feel lucky PREFU?

Written By: - Date published: 7:22 am, October 26th, 2011 - 72 comments

The PREFU paints a pretty dismal picture of the economy. The worst case scenario is catastrophic, and (at one in five) I think that Treasury has significantly underestimated the odds.  Do you feel lucky?…

The austerity death trap

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, October 25th, 2011 - 89 comments

In response to tough economic times, Government austerity programmes do more harm than good.  It’s a pretty simple equation based on the debt / GDP ratio.  With an election coming up soon, NZ needs to look for economic competence and a willingness to try new ideas, rather than muddling along deeper into the austerity death trap.

Double Dipton’s double downgrade doubletalk

Written By: - Date published: 4:54 pm, October 22nd, 2011 - 42 comments

Bill English: “a change in the credit ratings could push interest rates up … about 0.1 percent.”
Nek minnit: Since the double downgrade, interest rates on new government bonds have risen by 0.2 per cent for bonds maturing in 2015 and 0.4 per cent for bonds maturing in 2023 … this will cost $100 to $150 million extra per year.

A ludicrous budget

Written By: - Date published: 1:01 pm, October 20th, 2011 - 90 comments

This family budget is in terrible shape.  I can’t see any way out, can you?

National’s undeserved reputation

Written By: - Date published: 11:05 am, October 19th, 2011 - 46 comments

National are seen by many as the party of business, and thus the party of the economy, who know what’s best for the country’s wallet. But the statistics don’t add up. Their reputation is undeserved.

CTU on the tax switch

Written By: - Date published: 11:15 am, October 14th, 2011 - 7 comments

This press release from the CTU deserves wide discussion.

Key’s secret emailer unmasked

Written By: - Date published: 9:25 am, October 13th, 2011 - 15 comments

Key says an anonymous emailer told him that S&P said a Labour Government would make a downgrade more likely (more likely than ‘actually, already happened?’). S&P categorically denies saying any such thing. We can now reveal the identity of the anonymous emailer.

Muddling through makes problems worse

Written By: - Date published: 10:40 am, October 12th, 2011 - 8 comments

We’re witnessing, once again, the results of a government whose disaster management is focused on keeping blame off itself, rather than acting. It bears remarkable resemblance to their approach to economic management. National didn’t cause the natural and economic disasters it faces but its handling of them has inevitably made them worse.

Mr Muddle gets a credibility downgrade

Written By: - Date published: 9:30 pm, October 10th, 2011 - 102 comments

John Key’s economic credibility was shattered by the double downgrade. Now, his personal credibility has been lost after he claimed that Standard & Poor’s said a Labour government would lead to another downgrade. S&P could not have been more blunt: “At no stage have we said that a rating downgrade was more likely if there were a change of Government”.

S&P outs Key on two more downgrade lies

Written By: - Date published: 1:24 pm, October 10th, 2011 - 49 comments

The lies keep flowing as National desperately tries to limit the damage from the double downgrade. First, it was ‘doesn’t matter’ – Treasury says it does. Then, “hey, it’s just private debt” – the agencies’ reports say otherwise. Then it was just an international problem – less 1/4 of the OECD has been downgraded. Then, somehow, it was all Labour’s fault and would be worse under Labour – S&P says they’re lying on that too.

Will Bill English heed his own warning?

Written By: - Date published: 11:43 am, October 5th, 2011 - 18 comments

Will double dipping double downgrade Bill English have the guts to heed his own warning?

Key broke law on radio show

Written By: - Date published: 8:13 pm, October 3rd, 2011 - 75 comments

Prime Minister Moonbeam clearly broke the law on Friday on the radio show he chose to run instead of dealing with the downgrade crisis. The law is clear: Key wasn’t allowed to make political statements. He did. He made a promise on broadcasting policy and gave the Nats’ first cut spin-line on the downgrade.

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