economy

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Spin update

Written By: - Date published: 7:52 am, May 28th, 2012 - 20 comments

Just as a quick update on my pre-budget Spin v reality about a Government that has the worst growth record of any since before Michael Joseph Savage, and has a 52% increase in unemployment despite more than 1,000 NZers leaving for Australia each week.

Sunday reading

Written By: - Date published: 12:48 pm, May 27th, 2012 - 8 comments

A couple of good BBC articles: what have the Romans done for us? and can we have a society that doesn’t depend on us becoming ill with our fatness? And Kim Hill’s excellent interviewee Steve Keen.

Govt banks on winning lottery

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 am, May 26th, 2012 - 47 comments

National don’t have faith in Kiwis, or our skills and education, our Kiwi ingenuity. Nope, they think the only way to wealth is farming – which can’t be expanded, tourism – which provides low value jobs, and resource exploitation – of oil, gas and minerals unfound. They’re banking on us hitting the jackpot, because they can’t think of any real way of providing a future for our country.

Pre-budget reading

Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, May 24th, 2012 - 3 comments

An excellent column from Bryan Gould, and a picture of working families in financial distress. Something to ponder, as we await the zero budget.

David Parker’s Greece-proof paper

Written By: - Date published: 5:05 pm, May 22nd, 2012 - 30 comments

Don’t blame Greece: if you change nothing, nothing changes. National’s problems are their own to solve, but they don’t have the guts to look at the big problems in New Zealand’s economy. 0.6% growth in total over the last 3 years – less than population. But National only tinkers and distracts, as our brightest and best head to Aussie.

Spin v reality

Written By: - Date published: 6:45 pm, May 21st, 2012 - 13 comments

National have become a very adept PR machine. While not adept at running the country, they’ve become great at running statistics. John Key was pushing things a little too far with his lines that unemployment rising to 6.7% showed an improved economy and that Europe electing anti-austerity leaders showed their austerity policies were right, but […]

One more promise I couldn’t keep

Written By: - Date published: 9:13 am, May 21st, 2012 - 14 comments

Last Budget, National promised 36,000 jobs in the year to March 2012. We got 20,000. They promised 1.8% growth. We got 1.1%. They promised a $9.8 billion deficit. Now, it’s heading for over $12  billion. Ready for a repeat on Thursday?. English will say last year’s failures were all someone else’s fault. Key will grin and make some weak jokes, the beakbenches will hoot and holler. But will anyone outside National be smiling this time round?

Mr Key’s remarkable lack of ambition

Written By: - Date published: 7:01 am, May 21st, 2012 - 59 comments

Remember ‘ambitious for New Zealand’? Remember ‘brighter future’? National used to at least say they wanted to do something significant. At what point did all that get replaced with ‘surplus by 2014/15’? Key and National have $70 billion a year to play with to better this country, and the best thing they can come up with is making sure government operating revenue exceeds operating spending by about half a percent in three years time.

Brighter future (still) just around the corner

Written By: - Date published: 8:22 am, May 15th, 2012 - 12 comments

Unemployment’s up, wages are flat, retail and export prices in freefall. Last budget National promised 4% this year – it’s 1%. But never fear, the brighter future is just around the corner – again. Key says growth will be strong in 2013/14 -2 years from now. Does anyone still believe him?

Rock and a hard place

Written By: - Date published: 11:49 am, May 11th, 2012 - 20 comments

We’re in a second mini-recession/stall since the Great Recession began in 2008. As in 2010, oil prices ramped up and growth petered out. Now, oil prices have dropped back a little. But the moment the economy shows mild signs of life, they’ll be back up again. Short periods of weak growth, oil price shocks, recessions – sounds like the cycle peak oil economists have predicted for years.

ImperatorFish: To Save We Must First Kill

Written By: - Date published: 1:19 pm, April 26th, 2012 - 40 comments

Scott at Imperator Fish has kindly given us permission to syndicate posts from his blog – the original of this post is here.

The United Kingdom is in recession again. Thanks austerity!

Economic genius

Written By: - Date published: 9:58 am, April 22nd, 2012 - 41 comments

Behold the economic genius of John Key.

A three-legged stool

Written By: - Date published: 10:34 am, April 10th, 2012 - 4 comments

Ruth Richardson has forced every subsequent policy to be sized up for ‘fiscal responsibility’. I’d like them to be sized up for ‘social responsibility’ and ‘environmental responsibility’ as well.

Both sides of Joyce’s dirty deal bad for NZ

Written By: - Date published: 4:50 pm, April 8th, 2012 - 89 comments

We know that giving SkyCity more pokie machines will mean more problem gamblers, more crime. The Right says it’s worth it for the convention centre. But the official numbers show that’s a dog and we would pay for it in the long-run. It’s not one side of this equation that is bad for New Zealand, it’s both.

Another “Zero budget”

Written By: - Date published: 9:34 am, April 6th, 2012 - 72 comments

Another “Zero budget” has been signaled. Some commentators think it’s a bold move. I beg to differ.

The lie of the “fiscally neutral” tax cuts

Written By: - Date published: 3:50 pm, April 4th, 2012 - 46 comments

The “fiscally neutral” tax cuts never were neutral at all, and a lower than expected tax take is hitting the government’s books. But Key is still out there repeating the lie.

Bernard Hickey – Ouch!

Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, April 2nd, 2012 - 273 comments

Bernard Hickey has a great piece in the Herald on Sunday that you shouldn’t miss.

Meanwhile the economy…

Written By: - Date published: 10:54 am, March 23rd, 2012 - 15 comments

Plenty of high-profile bad news headlines for the Nats. At least it takes the focus of the boring old economy.

Farrar discovers peak oil, nearly

Written By: - Date published: 12:28 pm, March 20th, 2012 - 101 comments

Barack Obama will be breathing a sigh of relief after David Farrar endorsed his call to end oil subsidies. It seems the 3rd oil price spike in 5 years is getting the attention of even the Right. Something, they’ve got an inkling, is wrong and rising petrol prices are here to stay. Pity that, on the cusp of revelation, Farrar opts for the security blanket of neoclassical economics.

On those that need to work harder

Written By: - Date published: 10:06 am, March 15th, 2012 - 14 comments

Recently, an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal describing how CEOs around the world spend their time.  The article drew on data from a larger study, the Executive Time Use Project . This project relied on reports of time use by CEO’s personal assistants; making it more accurate. It came across my usual reading and I thought I might share some of the findings with you.

Postcards from the “brighter” future

Written By: - Date published: 11:32 am, March 10th, 2012 - 24 comments

Hey John – where’s our “Brighter Future”? Hey National voters – was this what you voted for?

Excuses excuses

Written By: - Date published: 9:41 am, March 7th, 2012 - 32 comments

Tax revenue is down, blowing a big hole in all the government’s financial projections. The Nats are in trouble and instead of looking for solutions, they’re looking for excuses.

False economy

Written By: - Date published: 11:13 am, March 6th, 2012 - 16 comments

Nationals bungling on the economy continues to damage NZ. Even their misguided state sector job cuts have failed to make significant savings…

ImperatorFish: Closing The Incompetence Gap

Written By: - Date published: 3:40 pm, February 20th, 2012 - 3 comments

Scott at Imperator Fish has kindly given us permission to syndicate posts from his blog – the original of this post is here

Bollard says the NZ-Aus income gap may not be as large as suggested – but what about the incompetence gap?

IT isn’t free

Written By: - Date published: 9:45 am, February 17th, 2012 - 172 comments

The Nats want to replace public service jobs with computerised systems. They claim that this will improve service and save money. Quite apart from the folly of destroying jobs in the current economy, they are likely wrong on both those claims.

Political orthodoxy and economic reality

Written By: - Date published: 9:46 am, February 13th, 2012 - 68 comments

Capitalism is good. Globalisation is good. It’s political orthodoxy. But is it matched by economic reality? Perhaps not. Recent pieces by Bernard Hickey and Gordon Campbell give us plenty to think about…

A reply to Steven Joyce

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, February 9th, 2012 - 9 comments

Steven Joyce’s piece on Tuesday was a transparent and hypocritical attempt to frame political opponents negatively, and soften us up for more asset sales, mining, deep sea drilling and the like. Thing is, it’s the Nats with their misguided austerity cuts who are the real nay-sayers holding the country back.

Friday Economics Joke

Written By: - Date published: 11:46 am, January 20th, 2012 - 8 comments

Why bringing the bankers to heel is so important…

Written By: - Date published: 11:33 am, January 13th, 2012 - 88 comments

Ecological economist Brian Davey explains how while we need to fix the problems of peak oil and climate change, we’re not going to get anywhere until we deal with the psychopathic elite of bankers who have control of the world economy.

Still no plan

Written By: - Date published: 7:05 am, December 22nd, 2011 - 59 comments

“Once in office, you’ve got to do something. That is why having a plan matters.” – Simon Power, 2011, valedictory speech to parliament

Trickle down

Written By: - Date published: 8:19 am, December 19th, 2011 - 44 comments

Key: “Of course, if we could have lower personal taxes, we think that would stimulate the economy – but we just can’t afford it”. But, if tax cuts stimulate the economy, you could make them self-funding. The 2010 tax changes were meant to pay for their net cost with extra growth. Didn’t happen. They’ve cost $1.1b so far. Does Key still buy this trickle down garbage or not?