Gap closes in latest Morgan poll

86 comments on “Gap closes in latest Morgan poll ”

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1. fabregas4 1

   1 October 2011 at 12:16 pm

   If National end up without a coalition partner, and this is looking more likely each Brash filled day, then this gets really interesting. Key is being attacked by a lot of media now – see Fran O’Sullivan in today’s NZH, and the Photo Op piece on the Nation today for examples. When folk begin to consider just how worse off they are after three years of this lot and National are exposed as the do nothing party the gap will narrow even more quickly.
   • J Mex 1.1

     2 October 2011 at 8:58 pm

     I wonder if Anthony Robbins will be writing a post on the One News and 3 News (worst ever result for Labour alone) polls?
     • r0b 1.1.1

       2 October 2011 at 10:45 pm

       Why wouldn’t I J Mex? Unlike some blogs, we don’t close our eyes to disagreeable facts here.
       • J Mex 1.1.1.1

         3 October 2011 at 6:53 pm

         Credit for that R0b. And you haven’t gone for the “Look! A great poll for Labour”, followed by “Poll’s are pointless” strategy which I have seen elsewhere.
         • r0b 1.1.1.1.1

           3 October 2011 at 8:05 pm

           Cheers J Mex, yeah we do try for a little intellectual honesty here.  

           Polls are what they are, flawed instruments, currently very bad for Labour, only significant on average and over reasonable time periods.  I write about them because we’re a political blog, but I don’t see much point in getting too worked up about them.
     • swordfish 1.1.2

       3 October 2011 at 2:48 am

       J Mex: “worst ever result for Labour alone”
       
       Yeah, you just made that up, didn’t you. You know it’s the biggest load of old bollocks since the French introduced vows of fidelity into their Wedding Service.
       • J Mex 1.1.2.1

         3 October 2011 at 6:02 pm

         Actually, honest mistake.

         Worst result for Labour in 15 years
         • McFlock 1.1.2.1.1

           3 October 2011 at 6:16 pm

           I bet this isn’t the first time you’ve been masturbating in public, JMex. Does the fantasy make it more enjoyable?
           • J Mex 1.1.2.1.1.1

             3 October 2011 at 6:52 pm

             “What we’re not prepared to accept are pointless personal attacks, or tone or language that has the effect of excluding others. We are intolerant of people starting or continuing flamewars where there is little discussion or debate.”

             Let’s see how long it takes an admin to deal with your comment. If you were a “RWNJ”, you would probably get a week ban.

             [It’s a very hard call moderating this kind of stuff – when does “full and frank discussion” between consenting adults cross the line? As far as I recall it’s the first complaint about McFlock so I’m going to leave it. – r0b]
             • McFlock …

               3 October 2011 at 7:07 pm

               Meh – if the mods think it’s overboard, fair enough. But the point was that you were, IMO, being a bit of a jerk. And you didn’t really have much cause for the gloating, polls being capricious and flighty wee things.
               • J Mex …

                 3 October 2011 at 8:33 pm

                 [Now that I am aware of the boundaries.]

                 Go fuck yourself, McFlock.
                 • McFlock …

                   3 October 2011 at 11:10 pm

                   [steps back from brink, doffs cap]
2. mik e 2

   1 October 2011 at 12:49 pm

   Promise and not deliver
   borrow and hope
3. Nick C 3

   1 October 2011 at 1:06 pm

   The Roy Morgan is quite good for Labour

   I do however note that the comment you hat tipped by BWS hints that the TV3 and TVNZ polls will show no such shift in momentum towards Labour.
   • lprent 3.1

     1 October 2011 at 4:45 pm

     I don’t even think that it is a momentum towards Labour. I think that the previous poll was just reflecting the feel-good effect of the RWS and was literally a blip. Have a look at the abrupt change in trend on the confidence value.

     I just find it interesting that BWS implied that both other polls had different figures. I’m tried to figure out who’d have the information for both and came up empty. I suspect that it is more a hope than reality.
     • Lanthanide 3.1.1

       1 October 2011 at 7:09 pm

       Rugby World Swindle?

       When the issue of competing television political polls came up on iPredict, the admin there contacted various people at one of the stations and was told that generally no one would have access to both lots of results until they’re published by their respective stations. Apparently only a handful of people from each station would actually have the results, so as to help prevent leakage and tip-offs to the political parties (if they want to go and get a comment from the leader who is unprepared, for example).
       • Draco T Bastard 3.1.1.1

         1 October 2011 at 7:10 pm

         Well, it’s far more descriptive and accurate.
     • BWS 3.1.2

       1 October 2011 at 11:57 pm

       lprent I will wager both the TV3 and TVNZ polls show a shift towards National, and away from Labour, tomorrow night.

       I don’t have inside information. But the gamblers at ipredict do, and I observed on Thursday that there was a shift of two cents on Thursday, just at the time that both polls’ data had finished, and I surmised that the shift was as a result of the inside information that was available to those pollsters.

       I will also wager that there isn’t a post at the Standard about it tomorrow, although with that statement you have the motivation to prove me wrong.
       • Colonial Viper 3.1.2.1

         2 October 2011 at 12:41 am

         I will also wager that there isn’t a post at the Standard about it tomorrow, although with that statement you have the motivation to prove me wrong.

         And what about the fact that no one gives a shit about your market speculation nonsense?
         • BWS 3.1.2.1.1

           2 October 2011 at 7:52 am

           That would explain why there was so much commentary following my point yesterday.
           • Colonial Viper 3.1.2.1.1.1

             2 October 2011 at 9:25 am

             Same category as who is going to be NZ’s Next Top Model.
       • Lanthanide 3.1.2.2

         2 October 2011 at 8:54 am

         See my post at 3.1.1.

         The time when iPredict did have specific stocks on these two polls coming out, the admin determined that it was very unlikely that anyone would know the results from both polls in advance. Those particular stocks also didn’t seem to show any specific large amount of insider trading, at the time.

         Sure, if one person knew the results from a poll that was strongly negative for a party they could trade on that, but just an average ho-hum result from 1 poll wouldn’t be sufficient to move the market, I don’t think.
         • Pete George 3.1.2.2.1

           2 October 2011 at 9:14 am

           ipredict has been pushed and pulled all over the place oveer the last week or two, I don’t think you can get much out of what’s happening there.

           I detailed some of the volatility here: http://yournz.org/2011/09/29/i-unpredictability/

           As an example for Labour over the past few days:
           Wednesday 21.50 – 31%
           Thursday 17:54 – 27%
           Friday 17:51 – 24%
           Friday 21.00 – 30%
           Saturday 7:12 – 28.5%
           Saturday 11.13 (last trade) – 29.7%

           You can take what you like from that.
           • Colonial Viper 3.1.2.2.1.1

             2 October 2011 at 11:20 pm

             You can take what you like from that.

             Same as the value of gold and silver: completely manipulated by the likes of JPM and the commodity exchange lap dogs who set the margin requirements for trade.
       • mik e 3.1.2.3

         2 October 2011 at 9:34 am

         Now that Dan Carter is in doubt for world cup backlash could occur especially as john key is pinning his hopes on All Blacks victory ie parliamentary rant.
       • lprent 3.1.2.4

         2 October 2011 at 1:10 pm

         IPredict is simply too small a market to have a use apart from looking at who wants to make the ‘market’ move and speculating on their motivations. Just look at the strangely unrealistic expectations of ACT’s vote for instance or Trevor Mallard making observations looking at the machinations on the Auckland Central vote.

         Because the market is so tiny, rumor making for the purposes of short selling appears to be rife – I frequently see it in comments here.

         The movement in the polls is likely to largely be affected by when the polls were taken. The Morgan poll is taken fortnightly and is released a few days after it finishes. Most of the other polls are monthly at best and are usually fossilized pictures of early in the month. Since the earlier Morgan poll showed a sharp bump to the government in the lead up to the RWC and then an equally sharp fall in the last poll, I think that looking at the dates on the TVNZ and TV3 polls (as well as their known sampling biases) will allow anyone too predict the outcome…

         Authors will write what they choose to write irrespective of your rather transparently silly behavior..

         Oh and FYI, I do not bet ever. I will sometimes take money from those who do when I am absolutely confident of outcomes.. The polls are too uncertain in their underlying implementation methodology to achieve that. Chicken entrails would probably be a better bet.
   • Jum 3.2

     1 October 2011 at 7:12 pm

     Nick C, ‘The Roy Morgan is quite good for Labour’

     Sorry, I don’t buy snake-oil from the Nick C’s of this world.
   • Ari 3.3

     1 October 2011 at 11:50 pm

     I don’t think Roy Morgan has a 4.5% bias in favor of Labour, Nick, so shove it, lol.

     (and I wouldn’t claim that the bias of other polls, like for instance the TV1 poll, was that significant, either. Usually bias is within the margin of error)
4. Akldnut 4

   1 October 2011 at 1:19 pm

   Don’t worry Mr smiley wavy man will get us through these tough economic times, he’ll prove it at the next photo op.

   Look I smile and wave it away.
   • Jum 4.1

     1 October 2011 at 7:14 pm

     Akldnut – goodness, I could picture than ad with the man on the concrete steps ‘ spray and …..I walk away…….’!
     • mik e 4.1.1

       2 October 2011 at 9:35 am

       Like just say and walk away
   • Deadly_NZ 4.2

     2 October 2011 at 4:48 pm

     More like ” I Smile and walk away”.
5. ak 5

   1 October 2011 at 1:28 pm

   It’s the vibe, r0b. The vibe of the neglected mistress finally realising what she’s done.

   The NACT marketeers, under Joyce’s baton, have poured millions into individually-tailored “approaches” to key individuals under the banner of “relationship building”.

   Starting with the press and talkback in 2004, this tactic gathered up the Maori Party (including even Hone for a time), the Woodhams, Shadbolts, Glens, Leitches, the Iwi Leadership Group – anyone of “celebrity” and “worthy” of quotation in the media – tweets and twitters, little notes from Grinny, fawning, flattery, respectful listening, “whatever it takes” on a carefully plotted individual basis exemplarised most blatantly perhaps by the PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss and the Mediaworks loan.

   But the party’s over. The stud turned out to be a mincer. The trinkets dried up and Sugar-daddy’s now double-downgrade: double-dipton no friend indeed.

   The big swinging dick’s gone limp over kittens and his rubber wool cup flows over with league.

   It’s the vibe, people. Get those leaflets out and billboards up, the day of the underdog dawns.
   • marsman 5.1

     1 October 2011 at 2:27 pm

     @ ak. I like what you say and I like how you say it!
   • M 5.2

     1 October 2011 at 2:46 pm

     ‘Get those leaflets out and billboards up, the day of the underdog dawns.’

     ak, I’ve had a huge Labour billboard in my front yard since the 26th after flagging down some intrepid Labour supporters putting up a sign on public land and offered my place as it’s on a main drag.

     Please, a victory for the left and let’s get rid of this shameless, divisive and cruel government. Seeing Key slope off into the sunset would make my year.
   • AAMC 5.3

     1 October 2011 at 8:09 pm

     “Get those leaflets out and billboards up, the day of the underdog dawns.”

     And get the spray cans out and create your own billboards!
     • Anne 5.3.1

       1 October 2011 at 8:17 pm

       I can think of a few other things to do with the spray paint. That smarmy, smiling, lying-eyed John Key photo that’s springing up all over the place. 😎
       • Ari 5.3.1.1

         1 October 2011 at 11:52 pm

         You should certainly not spraypaint brainless sayings next to John Key on billboards. That would be illegal. Wink. And wrong. Wink. Even though it absolutely wouldn’t hurt anyone, you still shouldn’t do it.

         Wink.
         • Anne 5.3.1.1.1

           2 October 2011 at 11:27 am

           Agreed Ari 😉
           And you shouldn’t reeeally just slap paint willy nilly over “the face”. 😉
           • Colonial Viper 5.3.1.1.1.1

             2 October 2011 at 11:31 am

             Red paint bombs might work well for a spot of decorating, not suggesting mind you, just sayin’ hypothetically.
       • Redbaron77 5.3.1.2

         2 October 2011 at 10:12 am

         Vandalism of National billboards won’t win any favours amongst the voting people. It’s desperate and more likely to be counter-productive particularly view of the fact that the political tide appears to be turning for JK and his team.
         • felix 5.3.1.2.1

           2 October 2011 at 10:29 am

           It’s what you do with it.

           Something that hijacks a billboard to make a valid criticism in an interesting way – good.

           Line drawing of a jizzing cock on Key’s face – probably not so good.
           • Colonial Viper 5.3.1.2.1.1

             2 October 2011 at 11:32 am

             Just lost my brunch, thanks Felix.
             • felix …

               2 October 2011 at 11:47 am

               My work here is done 😀
         • Deadly_NZ 5.3.1.2.2

           2 October 2011 at 4:50 pm

           Anyway they and yours, will probably be vandalised by disaffected teens who cannot vote but have been shafted by Bennet and Key.
         • AAMC 5.3.1.2.3

           2 October 2011 at 8:03 pm

           Agreed, but a nice neat stencil which plays on the “building a brighter future” tagline might be nice.

           Even better, all urban environments have lots of bare walls, everywhere else in the world they are used as a means of expression for those who don’t have a mainstream voice.We’re just all a bit too polite and beige for that sort of carry on though, well trained.

           Separate note, heard Unite talking about occupywallstreet type action during last week of RWC, “while the whole world is watching”, this too could really backfire, many New Zealanders will see it as bad taste, unless it has real momentum, it’ll have reverse effect.

           Why not wait till the week after the finals, the election is an internal issue, does the world really need to see if it turns all swing voters away from the Left when the narrative is turning our way?
6. Zaphod Beeblebrox 6

   1 October 2011 at 2:40 pm

   Presumably this poll does not reflect the credit rating downgrade.
   • The Voice of Reason 6.1

     1 October 2011 at 2:57 pm

     Nope, but this article does! The Morgan poll covers the period from the 12th to 25th, which is past the RWC opening fiasco, but before the credit drop.
     • Tiger Mountain 6.1.1

       1 October 2011 at 3:19 pm

       Heh, the simpering Armstrong would have had a good supply of medical strength sick bags at his side as he wrote that one. Even Franny wrote a mild “emperor has less clothes than we hoped” piece.

       Perhaps some of the journos have finally had a glimmer of what the numbers and the antics of Don “one toke over the line sweet jesus” Brash may mean. Holy s**t those f*****s might be back again… the press gallery types may be thinking as they stare at the ceiling transitioning from drunk to hungover just before dawn.
       • Carol 6.1.1.1

         1 October 2011 at 3:27 pm

         It looks to me like Armstrong is saying, National/Key haven’t been proactive enough, but that Labour’s/Cunliffe’s attacks on English’s stats were based on shonkey stats, while English/National had it right and are actually doing a good job.

         i.e. some double-talking on Armstrong’s part. He praises Labour while slamming them, and the opposite re-National.
         • swordfish 6.1.1.1.1

           1 October 2011 at 4:27 pm

           Actually, that also tends to be Jane Clifton’s modus operandi in The Listener. What at first sight looks like a critique of the National Government more often than not turns out to be a back-handed compliment.
         • Craig Glen Eden 6.1.1.1.2

           1 October 2011 at 4:37 pm

           Yup thats how I read it to Carol which is Armstrong’s normal mode of operation. When he half praises Labour on any issue he will then go but by the way its not true even though I have just written half my article saying it has merit.

           Armstrong covers the Nats arse at every turn make no mistake about it, he works tirelessly on their behalf he is certainly no balanced journalist. His buy the way always has a fish hook that is bigger than fish he has just fried.
     • Draco T Bastard 6.1.2

       1 October 2011 at 7:19 pm

       Another eulogy of NAct from John Armstrong.
7. Tiger Mountain 7

   1 October 2011 at 2:57 pm

   Who knows what the other bent polls will say, one can guess though. Things are going to get more ugly and unpleasant if ShonKey and his pillagers get another term. The Prime Mincer of course will leg it to Hawaii never to be seen again before the end of a second term. Good luck to that, the 99%ers are giving Wall St a good rev up, the money men will soon have to think harder about where to hide out. There is a classic vid http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYAockXp8sY&sns=fb inclusive of champagne sippers on a balcony looking down with amusement on the protest.

   A major worry here is the thousands of under 30s not enrolled to vote. All Standard readers can grab a handful of forms and pester family, friends and whoever else to enrol and break through the fear and loathing of the disengaged.
   • anne 7.1

     2 October 2011 at 7:24 pm

     The polls on tv are unbelievable,is there really that amount of braindead people out there that hang off every word ‘shonkey johnkey’ says.
     yes if he gets in again he will probably go to hawaii with his army of protectors,as if he needs
     them over there,or does he,that guy that scared him,might just jump in jk’s case.
     The finance ministers paws are still in the lolly jar collecting $900pw accommodation benefit from the tax-payer,while he changes his dipton farm from sheep to dairy and then gives $300 grand to fonterra for advertising and promotion costs,corruption yes, while screwing all nz’ers.
8. ianmac 8

   1 October 2011 at 3:53 pm

   Tiger. The lack of Student engagement is a worry. Those intelligent 18+ students had a distant legacy of protest over issues but now…..
9. the pink postman 9

   1 October 2011 at 4:15 pm

   Get the pamphelts out alright but lets hand them out.Letter boxing is a waste of time and effort.Go to the local markets and pass them out with a smile ,its a winner. Take the word of an ex postman ,the famous Pink one that all letter boxing causes is a box of waste paper.The other sucessfull way is putting them under windscreen wipers .As late Joe Hill said ,organize !Organize ! lets beat these bastards ,Another three years would be a disaster,
10. gingercrush 10

    1 October 2011 at 4:37 pm

    Seems like a classic Roy Morgan poll to me. You’ll notice National and Labours votes can often fluctuate like this.
    • lprent 10.1

      1 October 2011 at 4:48 pm

      Yeah, but I suspect the fluctuation was on the previous poll which shifted from the longer term trend that has just been reverted to.

      BTW: Have a look at confidence graph. Looks like a RWC effect to me – which we won’t know about for sure for some time after the end of the RWC.
11. randal 11

    1 October 2011 at 4:40 pm

    Well he has already become a back number in the Sunday Star Times advert in the dompost this morning. Just another fish and chips wrapper and about as wholesome and as nourishing.
12. Jum 12

    1 October 2011 at 7:26 pm

    ‘PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss’ (AK 5
    1 October 2011 at 1:28 pm)

    If anything was designed to make me really angry at what the current journalists are stooping to, this has just got to be rock bottom.

    Garner and Espiner – you make me worry about the freedoms of New Zealand and New Zealanders when you accept bribes from prime ministers to give them good press..

    Be assured; New Zealanders will come looking for you when the nasty stuff starts if Key gets back in. The fallout in large part will be due to your betrayals of objectivity in journalism.
    • Anne 12.1

      1 October 2011 at 7:55 pm

      @ Jum
      ‘PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss’ (AK 5
      1 October 2011 at 1:28 pm)

      Can you tell me where that info. came from? Would like to look it up.
      • Jum 12.1.1

        1 October 2011 at 8:13 pm

        Anne,

        Ask AK on this thread:

        (ak 5
        1 October 2011 at 1:28 pm

        It’s the vibe, r0b. The vibe of the neglected mistress finally realising what she’s done.

        The NACT marketeers, under Joyce’s baton, have poured millions into individually-tailored “approaches” to key individuals under the banner of “relationship building”.

        Starting with the press and talkback in 2004, this tactic gathered up the Maori Party (including even Hone for a time), the Woodhams, Shadbolts, Glens, Leitches, the Iwi Leadership Group – anyone of “celebrity” and “worthy” of quotation in the media – tweets and twitters, little notes from Grinny, fawning, flattery, respectful listening, “whatever it takes” on a carefully plotted individual basis

        exemplarised most blatantly perhaps by the PM taking Garner and Espiner out on the piss and the Mediaworks loan.)
        • Anne 12.1.1.1

          1 October 2011 at 8:21 pm

          Got it. Been working today- tired.
          • Jum 12.1.1.1.1

            1 October 2011 at 8:29 pm

            Anne, no prob – put your feet up; the battle has only just begun.

            I’m still conversing with ‘handle’ who so far hasn’t impressed me with a reason for continuing a discussion. Perhaps you know ‘handle’?

            Perhaps you can tell me why he/she is determined to stop me from voicing my personal opinion that I am disappointed in the general voting public. No don’t worry. I’m sure he/she will tell me in their own good time; I just hope I don’t sleep through it.
            • Anne 12.1.1.1.1.1

              1 October 2011 at 8:49 pm

              Saw handle’s comment. Stupid and senseless. Thought of responding but decided wasn’t worth it. He’s obviously a NAct troll and best ignored.
13. Jum 13

    1 October 2011 at 7:38 pm

    Actually, that also tends to be Jane Clifton’s modus operandi in The Listener. What at first sight looks like a critique of the National Government more often than not turns out to be a back-handed compliment.

    Swordfish 6.1.1.1.1 and Craig Glen Eden 6.1.1.1.2
    You are so right about the snake oil delivered by Jane Clifton, partner to Minister McCully and other political journalists – I don’t know about Armstrong – at least he informed us when Key lied, then English, re changing words of Helen Clark pre 2008 election. When you are owned by overseas media that wants rightwing government and you want to keep your job… But Clifton; I have no such reservations. You only have to listen to her on the good morning show political segment. Jane Clifton is rightwing and her columns rightwing, no matter how they seem. The bitter aftertaste for the left is always evident.
    • swordfish 13.1

      3 October 2011 at 2:42 am

      Yep. With Jane “Hockey-Sticks” Clifton it’s a case of The Empress has no clothes. She tends to quite aggressively regurgitate the official Nat Government line, while dressing it up as “balanced” by including a few minor and superficial criticisms (more often than not, back-handed compliments).
14. Jenny 14

    2 October 2011 at 5:42 am

    Give a seat to Winston
15. Brett Dale 15

    2 October 2011 at 11:49 am

    Can someone please explain in dumbass terms, with mmp, if a party doesn’t get 5% of the party vote, but gets One electoral MP, how many more MP’s does that party get in parliament.
    • Pascal's bookie 15.1

      2 October 2011 at 12:45 pm

      If they win an electorate seat, the 5% threshold gets dropped and they get as many seats as their list vote entitles them to.

      To simplify it, imagine there was a 100 seat parliament, and the Dale party got 4 % of the list vote.

      If they didn’t win an electorate seat then they would be out of luck due to the threshold.

      If they did win an electorate seat however, then the threshold doesn’t apply and they are entitled to 4 seats (4% of 100).

      So they would get their electorate seat, plus 3 members off the list.

      That’s the basic model, but there are some complicating factors to do with overhangs and what not that affect the size of parliament, and so affect the number of list seats you’d get.

      But the basic idea is that your list vote determines how many total seats you get. If you don’t get an electorate or 5% then you don’t get any. But if you get either 5 % of the list vote, or a single electorate, then you get however many seats your list vote entitles you to.
      • Lanthanide 15.1.1

        2 October 2011 at 4:35 pm

        Actually the total size of parliament doesn’t affect how many seats any party gets when calculating list seats.

        For example if 1 party won all 70 electorate seats and 0% of the party vote, and another party won 100% of the party vote, we’d end up with 190 MPs in total (the maximum possible overhang).

        Overhangs occur when 1 party wins more electorate seats than it’s party vote share would normally allow for, as has been the case with the Maori Party in the last election. But the overhang for that specific party doesn’t affect the seat outcomes of any other party.

        Calculator: http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/mmp-calculator.html
        Formula (really it’s an algorithm): http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/sainte-lague.html
16. Brett Dale 16

    2 October 2011 at 1:33 pm

    Pascal’s Bookie

    Thanks, that actually explains it real well!!!
17. Draco T Bastard 17

    2 October 2011 at 4:31 pm

    This misreporting by 3 News should have the RWNJs panicking.

    Labour’s on 38.4 percent support in the poll, followed by the Maori Party on 22.2 percent, while National’s on just 16.4 percent.

    That is in stark contrast to other media polls, which put National above 50 percent support, with Labour rating at 30 percent or less, and the Maori Party on around one percent support.
    • Lanthanide 17.1

      2 October 2011 at 4:37 pm

      It doesn’t even mention the mana outcome. The parties they’ve listed account for 77%, so there’s still a good 23% to split between Greens and Mana with some scraps left over for the rest.
      • McFlock 17.1.1

        2 October 2011 at 5:26 pm

        Mana is apparently 8.5% of general role Maori voters, but 12% of Maori roll voters.

        The Maori electorate breakdown is interesting, though.
        • swordfish 17.1.1.1

          3 October 2011 at 2:21 am

          McFlock

          No, I think its:

          (1) Maori on General Roll = 1.6% (Mana)
          (2) Maori on Maori Roll = 12% (Mana)

          All Maori (1)+(2) = 8.5% (Mana)
          • McFlock 17.1.1.1.1

            3 October 2011 at 12:10 pm

            k, that figures. I’ll blame crappy layout in the release 🙂
18. BWS 18

    2 October 2011 at 7:32 pm

    Oh look, it turns out my predictions for the TV3 and TVNZ polls turned out to be right.
    • McFlock 18.1

      2 October 2011 at 7:43 pm

      Not quite. TV3, ok.
      TV1 shows Nat unchanged, labour down 1 (so at best you are half right with “away from labour”). Greens up 3, total lab/green is up 2, and total govt is down 1 (Act).
      Shame you used “both” and “and”. “Or” would have meant you won the bet.
       
       
      • Draco T Bastard 18.1.1

        3 October 2011 at 4:00 am

        Wow, don’t you just love the total misleading headline from TV3?

        Latest 3 News poll shows Nat’s support doubled

        No you fucken morons, it hasn’t doubled at all. If it had it would be over 100%.
        • happynz 18.1.1.1

          3 October 2011 at 6:55 am

          It’s that new math, don’tcha know?

          If Key were drunk driving and smashed into a pet shop squishing a dozen puppies to death TV3 and TV1 would lead with the story that John Key had single-handedly saved Auckland from a rampaging wolf pack.
19. randal 19

    3 October 2011 at 8:44 pm

    At the moment the country is suffering from a mass delusion. you know like the ones where the banking system thought the sub prime mortgages would go on forever. After the party Kiwis will come to their senses and vote for the party that looks after them and not the rich or more importantly the two bob tories who think that if they vote national then they are somebody. yettttccccch.
20. Jasper 20

    8 October 2011 at 2:45 pm

    A leaked internal National party poll. Oops! The nat’s are in trouble!
    National 44%
    Labour 23%
    Greens 22%
    Mana, NZ First, Maori Party 11%
    Act are history and did not feature in their polling results! Meaning they’re going to stand Goldsmith as their Epsom candidate.

    ACT faces further turmoil today as the results of a leaked poll are aired, a blow to the party and Don Brash’s leadership. The poll reveals details of a leaked poll that shows John Banks will not win in Epsom “if” National is polling more than 50 per cent nationwide and does not need ACT’s support.
    The survey, understood to be a three-scenario poll by National’s pollster, David Farrar, is believed to show that, if National drops to about 45 per cent it would need ACT’s support to form a government, then Mr Banks would win.
    Voters in Epsom would be likely to back National candidate Paul Goldsmith, effectively putting ACT to the sword.
    -Drunk’n Gardener.

    This was released at 5am this morning after they massaged the numbers again! They couldn’t stomach what the raw data was say’n which are the numbers above! Haha!!

Links to post

1. The Fairfacts Media Show » Blog Archive » “Dead Meat” Liarbour to be butchered next time!: posted on 2 October 2011 at 9:50 pm
2. A week of polls « The Standard: posted on 3 October 2011 at 1:42 pm

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