Luxon crashes in latest Curia poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, March 8th, 2024 - 39 comments
Categories: act, Christopher Luxon, greens, labour, national, political parties, Politics, polls - Tags:

The Atlas aligned Taxpayer’s Union has released its latest Curia poll results.

I always have a certain sense of incredulity when reading Curia’s poll results. Like the last one which suggested that Act’s racist anti Treaty campaign had resulted in a surge of support. I really worried about this. I thought the good people of Aotearoa were better than this and I was heartened because Curia’s result was contradicted by Talbot Mills and 1News Verian poll results which suggested that Act’s support declined.

And so the latest Curia Poll result has dropped and it makes you wonder if Judith Collins had a finger on the scale. Because the results show that Christopher Luxon’s support has tanked, with voters having a positive view of him dropping by 5% points, voters having a negative view of him increasing by 11% points, and National’s support dropping by 2.2% points.

Newshub tried to present this as bad news for Labour. But Labour and the Greens swapping support while National sheds 2.2% points and Act sheds a whopping 3.7% points is not bad news for the left. A modest increase for NZ First does not compensate.

The Taxpayers Union release about the poll tends to downplay Act’s support, I wonder why, but as a proportion its support tanked way worse than any other party.

Of course it could be that the drop was a correction of a previous rogue poll result which was against the results in the other two more reputable polls.

Or this could be more evidence that Act’s racist treaty dog whistling is going down badly.

The poll clearly shows that National has not had a honeymoon. I can recall vividly in 2009 when John Key’s support surged and National appeared to be unbeatable.

Things are way different now. And Christopher Luxon’s refusing to live in Government House so that he could pocked $52,000 a year so that he could stay in an apartment that he already owned will make Kiwis think that despite the best propaganda that money can buy, National is completely indifferent to our collective interests.

Updated: lprent – fixed the link to Newshub. It wasn’t to Stuff.

39 comments on “Luxon crashes in latest Curia poll ”

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  1. Patricia Bremner 1
    8 March 2024 at 9:33 pm

    Perhaps what is happening is far more right wing than expected, and voters are showing that.

  2. Muttonbird 2
    8 March 2024 at 9:38 pm

    Belladonna will be furious with this post. According to David Farrar, David Farrar's polling methods and results are beyond reproach!

    • observer 2.1
      8 March 2024 at 10:36 pm

      Curia would not be my favourite pollster, but it is certainly more reliable than all "non-polls" which are often cited as measures of public opinion (Facebook comments, self-selecting text polls, talkback callers, the echo chamber we live in, that bloke at the bar, etc).

      Comparisons within one poll history are useful. If there's a methodology bias it is constant, not jumping around from one month to the next. So this TU/Curia poll can be fairly judged in relation to previous ones. It is a bad poll for Luxon by any measure.

    • Belladonna 2.2
      8 March 2024 at 10:38 pm

      Not at all. I believe that Curia's results are at least as accurate as any other political poll. Not being blinded by political ideology, I take the results as they come.

      You, however, must be furious – since you've made the claim that Curia is hopelessly biased and can't be believed. Now you have a result from them that you want to be true- the mental whiplash must be agonizing.

      • Hanswurst 2.2.1
        9 March 2024 at 7:35 am

        Feeling open to voting either centre-right or centre-left doesn't actually make you any less likely to hold heavy ideological biases then anybody else, you know?

      • Powerman 2.2.2
        10 March 2024 at 11:24 am

        Could be that the poll is not to be believed as the actual facts are far worse for the right?

    • Phillip ure 2.3
      9 March 2024 at 8:05 am

      Tho' ideologically opposed to farrar..I don't see him manipulating polls…

      If only because if he were ever sprung doing it..it would seriously damage his business model…

      • Belladonna 2.3.1
        9 March 2024 at 10:26 am

        Of course. Curia's business model (like that of all of the polling companies) is predicated on getting results as close to an accurate representation of popular opinion as possible. They and their clients have zero interest in 'telling the Emperor what he wants to hear'. The clients want the real picture (obviously the clients then want to use that data to change the public perception – but that's a completely different story)

        Unfortunately, some on TS seem unable to get past their own biases to realize this.

        Will Curia always be right? Of course not. Will they sometimes produce a rogue poll result? Yes, of course they will? But they'll do it to the same extent as all other polling companies. And will be highly motivated to reduce the 'error' rate as much as possible.

        All of which is why – it's trends over months which matter, rather than individual poll results.

        I happen to think that this one (with the fall in Luxon's popularity coinciding with the news that he was claiming a living allowance for his Wellington apartment) – is highly likely to reflect the reality – the week the poll was taken. [Whereas the previous Curia result for ACT (which got Muttonbird so hot under the collar) was, IMO, an outlier result]

        What is going to be interesting is whether that drop persists – or was a temporary blip. That's where the polling trend is really interesting. In 6 months time will we see Luxon on a trend downwards (begun by this poll),;with the initial drop (from this poll) but trending upwards? or at or above January levels (with this poll a minor blip, with no long-term effect)? The left will be hoping for number 1 scenario, while the right are hoping for number 3 scenario. But we'll only know if any of them are in play after another 3 or so polls. No one can predict any of them from a single result.

        • KJT 2.3.1.1
          9 March 2024 at 7:44 pm

          Curia's "business model" is giving those that pay for their polls, the answers that want.

          • Phillip ure 2.3.1.1.1
            10 March 2024 at 9:58 am

            So..going on your reasoning..the curia clients wanted luxon to have that big drop..?

          • Belladonna 2.3.1.1.2
            10 March 2024 at 10:36 am

            What absolute rubbish. No one. No organization. No company. No political party would pay money to be told what they already 'know' to be true.

            All of them what to know the real picture – so they can then adapt their message, political strategies or marketing – to *change* that picture.

            Of course, many of the customers hold this information very tightly – they don't want the 'opposition' to know the real picture.

            One of the things which I appreciate about the Curia polls for the Taxpayers Union – is that they are publicly released. Unlike the Talbot Mills ones for "a corporate client" – which are leaked and/or drip fed – often in partial form. Now that's the 'corporate client' deliberately using this data to manipulate the electorate.

            https://archive.ph/vluk4

  3. Robert Guyton 3
    8 March 2024 at 9:40 pm

    Luxon cannot rebuild his reputation with the public.

    From here on in, it gets unpleasant, imo.

    • Chris 3.1
      9 March 2024 at 10:16 pm

      It was a blip for Luxon because of the housing matter, which will be easily forgotten. Support for National stayed relatively the same, which Luxon will be hoisted back up upon, imo, of course.

      • Robert Guyton 3.1.1
        9 March 2024 at 10:26 pm

        You wish. Luxon's losing/lost all credibility.

        "Luxon will be hoisted back up", though, is a great prediction!

        Looking forward to that spectacle.

        • Chris 3.1.1.1
          10 March 2024 at 1:05 pm

          No, it's not my wish. It's simply my view on what the effect of the housing issue will do to Luxon's popularity, which given the unfortunate views of much of the population, I think will be minimal.

      • observer 3.1.2
        10 March 2024 at 5:47 pm

        It's not simply a blip. See the link in comment #7. Very clear historical data.

  4. Incognito 4
    8 March 2024 at 9:41 pm

    Stuff tried to present this as bad news for Labour.

    The links goes to Newshub rather, not Stuff.

    [Oops my bad. Thanks for fixing Lprent – MS]

    • veutoviper 4.1
      9 March 2024 at 11:08 am

      MS – you might want to also correct your reference in the last para of the post from "Government House" to "Premier House". Government House is the official residence for the Governor General, not the PM. Cheers.

    • lprent 4.2
      9 March 2024 at 11:38 am

      🙂 Sorry I left the post locked. Was in a rush to get down to the appointment to get the newly released covid XBB vaccine after it released on Thursday.

      On average since the start of the year, we have had at least one or two people per week telling us that they have tested positive and we were in contact with them the day before a positive test. Which is pretty astonishing. I am devoutly anti-social and my partner is less so, and the people we associate with tend towards being responsible. But it indicates a pretty widespread summer infection rate in the community.

      Didn't want to get last years vaccine, because I'd have to wait 6 months to get the one with XBB factors in it. I’m a high probability for complications.

  5. SPC 5
    8 March 2024 at 9:47 pm

    NACT are 47.4% – the only good thing about that is this pollster may have them on the high side.

    But even so

    The mood of the country appears to have soured on the Government. After a couple of months in which more Kiwis felt the country was on the “right track”, the right track-wrong track indicator tipped into negatives again, with net 3 per cent of people thinking NZ was on the wrong track.

    More people disapprove of the Government than approve of it.

    A net 3.9 per cent of people disapprove of the Government, a shift of 8.4 points on last month’s poll.

    Just not enough to move people from their vote position in 2023.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/latest-poll-christopher-luxons-popularity-crashes-after-allowance-blunder-now-trails-chris-hipkins/IFN35O3GGJGMDF7AEV73HI254U/

    • Anne 5.1
      8 March 2024 at 10:04 pm

      "Just not enough to move people from their vote position in 2023."

      Too soon. People are not ready to admit, even to themselves, they got it wrong.

      • Tiger Mountain 5.1.1
        9 March 2024 at 5:34 am

        Yes, voters remorse…the TVNZ sackings look vindictive and strategic to this long time politics follower.

        Fair Go challenges bent business practice, and Sunday actually does some investigative reporting–not what the Three Amigos would prefer–this will go beyond reckons when some OIA requests are lodged regarding timing and Melissa Lee. She did not go to ground for no reason.

        • Anne 5.1.1.1
          9 March 2024 at 9:57 am

          …. the TVNZ sackings look vindictive and strategic to this long time politics follower.

          My thoughts too. The link(s) to the CoC may not be direct but are too compelling to be set aside. It is my view that the legislative repeals are based more on spite and revenge than the claimed differences in ideals. That is the way of authoritarian (read right-wing) governance as has been seen time and again in other parts of the world.

          You and I – and some others here – go back a long way in politics. We've seen it all before and can afford to be cynical. 😉

        • Tony Veitch 5.1.1.2
          9 March 2024 at 10:49 am

          And Seven Sharp appears to have escaped untouched!

          Go figure . . .!

        • Phillip ure 5.1.1.3
          9 March 2024 at 11:05 am

          What puzzles me about axing Sunday/fair go…

          ..is that in the grand scheme of things..both programs are as cheap as chips to make…

          And why just cutting the talent/creatives..?

          In that behemoth there must be layers upon layers of middle management…

          Sitting in empires built over decades..

          (My image of tvnz is of an elephant..with the body being the beast…and a fart coming out the actual broadcasting output..

          I can't think of a more over-ruled organisation in nz..)

          So why was the lens not turned in that direction..?

          ..instead of killing the geese that lay the golden eggs for tvnz..

          It makes no sense..

          • Belladonna 5.1.1.3.1
            9 March 2024 at 5:54 pm

            TBH I do wonder if the axing of these particular shows is a cynical ploy from TVNZ – knowing that there will be a public out-cry – and therefore the possibility that additional funding will be found from somewhere (NZ on Air would be the first pick). Whereas cutting shows like Breakfast – or some of the low-audience figures (but. no doubt, worthy) shows – wouldn't attract nearly as much controversy.

            In the same way, a city librarian used to regularly offer up the mobile library service on the altar of funding cuts. Knowing that it was the worst 'performing' branch in the system, but equally knowing that the passionate supporters wouldn't let it be axed. It was then harder for the powers-that-be to institute service cuts on better-performing library services.

        • Heather 5.1.1.4
          9 March 2024 at 1:18 pm

          Exactly, cynical as we are, the cancelation of two community information public service programs are being axed because citizens might obtain information from them. It is outrageous that we are subject to Breakfasts nonsense morning after morning.

  6. Incognito 6
    8 March 2024 at 9:50 pm

    A fish rots from the head.

  7. observer 7
    8 March 2024 at 10:43 pm

    From OP:

    The poll clearly shows that National has not had a honeymoon. I can recall vividly in 2009 when John Key’s support surged and National appeared to be unbeatable. Things are way different now.

    Yes. Luxon is the first PM in MMP history not to get a post-election "honeymoon".

    Luxon's popularity low compared to other first-term PMs (1news.co.nz)

    (note: that is not government v opposition, only the PM's personal rating. But it matters).

  8. Thinker 8
    9 March 2024 at 7:18 am

    Based on the numbers, there has to be a lot of people who voted for Luxon et al because they wanted to better their lives, for whom things are going to get worse.

    People who relished the removal of Auckland's targeted road tax, taken away with one hand and put back with another – and more piled on top. Some of the 68 TVNZ people must, by probability, have voted for Luxon. Not to mention Newshub, where the same is probably true.

    Luxon denied himself a honeymoon by proving how quickly he could "get things done" (translated into "stop doing things").

    And the people left behind at TVNZ, who faced losing their colleagues at about the same time as Seymour thumbed his nose at them, aren't going to be too pleased, either. Some may make up their own opinions, based on the obvious glee displayed by TVNZ’s shareholding minister.

    Even those that don't subscribe to the theory that "the lack of evidence of a conspiracy just proves how deep it really is" could well believe that government intervention, which was sorely lacking, might have saved not only their colleagues but the fourth estate that they spend their waking hours upholding.

    I think Seymour, Shane Jones and Luxon haven't won friends with the media and they've got a lot coming up where a few tame journos at TVNZ could have helped maintain their personal profiles.

  9. Mike the Lefty 9
    9 March 2024 at 1:16 pm

    National likes to boast about what they have "achieved" in 100 days.

    What they don't boast about is how low Luxon's rating as PM is after 100 days.

    New PM's usually are high in the ratings, as befits the honeymoon period of a new government.

    But how many new PMs have scored a miserable 25% after 100 days in recent history?

    I think he's on his own there.