Luxon crashes in latest Curia poll
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8:52 pm, March 8th, 2024 - 39 comments
Categories: act, Christopher Luxon, greens, labour, national, political parties, Politics, polls -
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The Atlas aligned Taxpayer’s Union has released its latest Curia poll results.
I always have a certain sense of incredulity when reading Curia’s poll results. Like the last one which suggested that Act’s racist anti Treaty campaign had resulted in a surge of support. I really worried about this. I thought the good people of Aotearoa were better than this and I was heartened because Curia’s result was contradicted by Talbot Mills and 1News Verian poll results which suggested that Act’s support declined.
And so the latest Curia Poll result has dropped and it makes you wonder if Judith Collins had a finger on the scale. Because the results show that Christopher Luxon’s support has tanked, with voters having a positive view of him dropping by 5% points, voters having a negative view of him increasing by 11% points, and National’s support dropping by 2.2% points.
Newshub tried to present this as bad news for Labour. But Labour and the Greens swapping support while National sheds 2.2% points and Act sheds a whopping 3.7% points is not bad news for the left. A modest increase for NZ First does not compensate.
The Taxpayers Union release about the poll tends to downplay Act’s support, I wonder why, but as a proportion its support tanked way worse than any other party.
Of course it could be that the drop was a correction of a previous rogue poll result which was against the results in the other two more reputable polls.
Or this could be more evidence that Act’s racist treaty dog whistling is going down badly.
The poll clearly shows that National has not had a honeymoon. I can recall vividly in 2009 when John Key’s support surged and National appeared to be unbeatable.
Things are way different now. And Christopher Luxon’s refusing to live in Government House so that he could pocked $52,000 a year so that he could stay in an apartment that he already owned will make Kiwis think that despite the best propaganda that money can buy, National is completely indifferent to our collective interests.
Updated: lprent – fixed the link to Newshub. It wasn’t to Stuff.
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- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...2 weeks ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cardsThe Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...3 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...3 weeks ago
- Getting new job seekers on the pathway to work
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...17 hours ago - Accelerating Social InvestmentA new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...19 hours ago
- Getting Back on TrackCheck against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...19 hours ago
- NZ – European Union ties more critical than everYour Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...1 day ago
- Therapeutic Products Act to be repealedThe Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...1 day ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District PlanThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...2 days ago
- Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...2 days ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...2 days ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...2 days ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...2 days ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...2 days ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...2 days ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...2 days ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...2 days ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...3 days ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...3 days ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...3 days ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...3 days ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...3 days ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...3 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...3 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...3 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...4 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...5 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...6 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...7 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...7 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...1 week ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...1 week ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...1 week ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...1 week ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...1 week ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...1 week ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...1 week ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...1 week ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...1 week ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- ‘Completely stupid’ – ex-Tuvalu PM plea to NZ to rethink fossil fuel plan
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist A former Tuvalu prime minister says while the New Zealand government’s oil and gas plans show it is concerned about its economy, he is more concerned about the livelihoods and survival of the Tuvalu people. Enele Sopoaga — who still serves as an MP ...4 hours ago - Grattan on Friday: Like the famous budget tree, Chalmers can change the story to suit the seasonSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Many people who follow federal budgets know about the magnificent “budget tree” in a parliamentary courtyard, which turns a glorious red in time for the May event. This week Treasurer Jim Chalmers posed by ...4 hours ago
- Australia can have a future for the gas industry, or meet its climate commitments – but not bothSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin University Aerial-motion/Shutterstock Gas is back – if it ever went away. Yesterday, the Albanese government doubled down on gas with the release of its Future Gas Industry policy. Under this proposal, gas will ...6 hours ago
- Technically accomplished, sonically subversive and fiercely independent, I’ll remember Steve Albin...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Bennett, Professor of Music, Australian National University Richard P J Lambert/flickr, CC BY The future belongs to the analogue loyalists. Fuck digital. As a tsunami of CDs, DAT tapes and samplers swept the recording industry in the ...7 hours ago
- Hind’s Hall is Macklemore’s bold new pro-Palestine anthem. What might it actually achieve?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate professor, Music Industry, RMIT University This week American rapper Macklemore released a new track, Hind’s Hall, which has gained a lot of attention because of its explicitly political nature. The track is unapologetically pro-Palestine. It declares the artist’s ...8 hours ago
- How KidsCan provides a nutritious school lunch for $2
A charity says it is - and that it has been doing so while providing fresh meals for nearly 6000 children per day. ...9 hours ago - Shane Jones sets sights on killer kina – 'An industrial grade problem'"They kill all the kelp, they kill all the seaweed, and they turn the marine environment into a virtual desert," the Fisheries Minister says. ...9 hours ago
- Using a structured literacy approach to teach reading: What you need to knowExplainer - The government from 2025 is mandating how state schools teach children to read. But what is structured literacy and how does it compare to other teaching methods? ...10 hours ago
- ‘We do not want to be like Russia’: a first-hand account of Georgia’s fight for democracySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danica Jenkins, Lecturer in European Studies, University of Sydney On a freezing spring night in March, Georgia’s national soccer team beat Greece in a nail-biter penalty shootout to qualify for the Euro 2024 championships. The atmosphere on the streets of the capital ...10 hours ago
- Our research shows higher carbon emissions increase costs for Australian businessesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam G. Arian, Lecturer (Accounting & Finance), Australian Catholic University Loic Manegarium/Pexels Imagine every ton of carbon dioxide a company emits is slowly inflating its costs — not just in terms of potential fines or fees but in the capital it ...11 hours ago
- Ponsonby shooting: Hone Kay-Selwyn death not suspiciousThe death of Hone Kay-Selwyn, who was involved in the Ponsonby shooting, is not being treated as suspicious, police say. ...12 hours ago
- Our cities are widening the divide between the well-off and the rest. How can we turn this damaging ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Somwrita Sarkar, Senior Lecturer in Design and Computation, University of Sydney The “latte line” is the infamous, invisible boundary that divides Sydney between the more affluent north-east and the south-west. Historically, people north of the line enjoy better access to jobs and ...12 hours ago
- Supercharged thunderstorms: have we underestimated how climate change drives extreme rain and floods...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dowdy, Principal Research Scientist in Extreme Weather, The University of Melbourne Nomad_Soul/Shutterstock In media articles about unprecedented flooding, you’ll often come across the statement that for every 1°C of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. This ...12 hours ago
- Former Fiji PM Voreqe Bainimarama jailed over block of USP probeRNZ Pacific Former Fiji Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama has been sentenced to one year in prison, Fiji media are reporting. Bainimarama, alongside suspended Fiji Police Commissioner Sitiveni Qiliho appeared in the High Court in Suva today for their sentencing hearing for a case involving their roles in blocking a police ...13 hours ago
- ACC proposes cutting more than 300 jobsThe cuts would be a 9 percent reduction in the Crown entity's total workforce. ...13 hours ago
- Government To Respond To 259 Human Rights Recommendations
Acting Chief Human Rights Commissioner Saunoamaali’i Dr Karanina Sumeo says, “Addressing violence and abuse remains New Zealand’s most significant human rights issue affecting women. ...13 hours ago - Marlborough by-election still possible when MP Jamie Arbuckle resignsThe mayor says she understands the MP's bid to avoid a costly by-election but the decision is one for councillors. ...13 hours ago
- Glaring Hole Exposed In Government’s Single Use Plastics BanJust Earth Papers has challenged the Ministry for Environment to follow its own guidance on the phase out and ban of single-use plastics. ...13 hours ago
- ACT's interpretation of Treaty of Waitangi inaccurate and misleading – claimantsSpeaking to the Waitangi Tribunal, Ngāpuhi Kaumātua Hone Sadler said ACT's interpretation is not in tune with the intent of Te Tiriti. ...13 hours ago
- Should we fight climate change by re-engineering life itself?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Symons, Macquarie School of Social Sciences, Macquarie University Michael Schiffer / Unsplash Life has transformed our world over billions of years, turning a dead rock into the lush, fertile planet we know today. But human activity is currently transforming Earth ...13 hours ago
- Please let me watch the horny tennis movie at a reasonable time
One woman’s quest to watch Challengers without ruining her body clock. Every Saturday morning, I wake up with a screaming demon inside my head urging me to “Do. Something. This. Weekend.” I run through the possibilities in my head in a defensive mental crouch, reminiscent of that one time I ...13 hours ago - ACC Job Cuts Will Mean More Accidents And InjuriesThe PSA is alarmed that ACC is proposing to shed 309 jobs including 29 dedicated injury prevention jobs at a time when the number and cost of injuries is rising. ...13 hours ago
- ACC proposes cutting nearly 400 jobsThe cuts would be a 9 percent reduction in the Crown entity's total workforce. ...14 hours ago
- ‘City deals’ are coming to NZ – let’s make sure they’re not ‘city back-room deals’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Baker, Associate Professor in Human Geography, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images As local and regional councils struggle with inadequate infrastructure and unsustainable costs, New Zealand will be hearing a lot more about the potential solution offered by ...14 hours ago
- Not all ultra-processed foods are bad for your health, whatever you might have heardSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary Sacks, Professor of Public Health Policy, Deakin University Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock In recent years, there’s been increasing hype about the potential health risks associated with so-called “ultra-processed” foods. But new evidence published this week found not all “ultra-processed” foods are linked ...15 hours ago
- Explainer: Nicola Willis' pre-Budget speech – what we learntThe Finance Minister has done a conservative lift of the lid on her upcoming Budget. Here's what she laid out. ...15 hours ago
- Explainer: Nicola Willis's pre-Budget speech – what we learntThe Finance Minister has done a conservative lift of the lid on her upcoming Budget. Here's what she laid out. ...15 hours ago
- NZ's reliance on forests to absorb carbon emissions is risky – OECD reportFears that New Zealand is relying too heavily on low-cost forests to absorb its carbon dioxide emissions have been reignited by a report from the OECD. ...16 hours ago
- Cabinet mulls creation of mega spy agency as FIANZ seeks 'serious rethink'The agency, first floated after the Christchurch mosque attacks, is under "active consideration". ...16 hours ago
- Public services savings confirmed, but possibly not complete
Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed the total dollar savings target from public sector cuts has been met, but the reductions have not been felt evenly across public agencies. Government departments were told to make savings set at 6.5 percent or 7.5 percent where headcount had grown by more than ...16 hours ago - Help Me Hera: Are my friend’s compliments of our other mate designed to terrorise me?She doesn’t have a single kind word for me and it’s getting under my skin. Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nz Dear Hera, I have two amazing friends that I absolutely adore. Grace (all names have been changed) and I lived together across 2023 and Olivia moved in with us this ...16 hours ago
- How mana whenua lead the way in revolutionising environmental healingCan Western science and Māori science work together to support our well-being? The Te Ohu Mō Papatūānuku (TOMP) Trials Project was a landmark case for healing the land and people with the guidance of Māori science and leadership. This is what happened when Papatūānuku (Earth) was contaminated by toxic discharge, ...16 hours ago
- Government to introduce compulsory work seminar for job-seeking beneficiariesBeneficiaries looking for a job will have to attend a work seminar within two weeks of starting to receive welfare under new requirements. ...17 hours ago
- Photos are everywhere. What makes a good one?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University T.J. Thomson We upload some 3 billion images online each day. We make most of these photos on smartphones and use these devices to document everything from gym progress ...18 hours ago
- 'Darkest before the dawn': Nicola Willis rules out austerity Budget"Every dollar counts and our Budget will reflect that reality," the Finance Minister has told an audience.. ...18 hours ago
- Wellington’s new District Plan can be the path forward out of the city’s malaiseThe District Plan is a blueprint for a bigger, better Wellington, through tens of thousands of new apartments and townhouses and a new approach to urban growth. Joel MacManus lays out the vision. The process of putting together Wellington’s new District Plan has been long and excruciating. As a city, ...18 hours ago
- AI companions can relieve loneliness – but here are 4 red flags to watch for in your chatbot ‘fr...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Weijers, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy, Co-editor International Journal of Wellbeing, University of Waikato Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images It’s been seven years since the launch of Replika, an artificially intelligent chatbot designed to be a friend to human users. Despite ...18 hours ago
- Paris in spring, Bali in winter. How ‘bucket lists’ help cancer patients handle life and deathSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Leah Williams Veazey, ARC DECRA Research Fellow, University of Sydney DavideAngelini/Shutterstock In the 2007 film The Bucket List Jack Nicholson and Morgan Freeman play two main characters who respond to their terminal cancer diagnoses by rejecting experimental treatment. Instead, they go ...18 hours ago
- Heat is coming for our crops. We have to make them readySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohan Singh, Professor of Agri-Food Biotechnology, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences at the University of Melbourne., The University of Melbourne Tanja Esser/Shutterstock Australia’s vital agriculture sector will be hit hard by steadily rising global temperatures. Our climate is already ...18 hours ago
- Why Trust Is A MustThe Acumen Edelman Trust barometer reported that New Zealand’s political trust score now sits below the global average, a topic explored in a recent discussion paper by Maxim Institute. ...19 hours ago
- Protest March Against Fast-track Bill Announced For AucklandGreenpeace Aotearoa executive director Russel Norman says, "The Fast-Track Bill is the most damaging piece of environmental legislation any Government has introduced in living memory. People are angry, and it’s time to march." ...20 hours ago
- Watch live: Finance Minister Nicola Willis makes pre-Budget speechFinance Ministers have used past pre-Budget speeches to reveal where savings have been found and what rules have been set. ...20 hours ago
- A busy week at school for David SeymourThe school lunches programme has been retained – and will be extended to some preschoolers. So how is it going to cost $107 million less? To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. The minister with many hats David Seymour wears a number of hats, but this week ...20 hours ago
- 'Completely stupid' – ex-Tuvalu PM on Shane Jones' oil and gas commentsEnele Sopoaga - who still serves as an MP in Tuvalu - says the climate crisis is the "main enemy". ...20 hours ago
- School lunch revamp: 'The biggest waiting list since 2018'Up to 10,000 more hungry children under five will become eligible for free lunches under the government's revised lunches in schools programme. ...21 hours ago
- Book of the Week: Ashleigh Young on an extinction event“Show us the bird,” I found myself muttering at times while reading Hard by the Cloud House by Peter Walker, a deeply thoughtful, often hilarious, at times rambling – but somehow delightfully so – search for the story of a big bird. But not just any bird: the bird. This ...21 hours ago
- A ‘sponge city’ may be your home in 2050Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition DPVUE .images/Shutterstock Your home was probably designed for a climate that no longer exists. As long as humanity continues to burn fossil fuel, padding the heat-trapping blanket of gases in Earth’s atmosphere, the ...21 hours ago
- Tikanga is the first law of AotearoaA senior lawyer has filed a complaint about tikanga becoming a required law school module. Law lecturer Carwyn Jones explains what he’s getting wrong. “…the first law of Aotearoa, a law that served the needs of tangata whenua for a thousand years before the arrival of tauiwi.” – Ani Mikaere ...22 hours ago
- ‘Your agency is taken away’: When endometriosis treatment changes without your consentIn 2019, an Auckland woman woke up from surgery to find that she had undergone a treatment she didn’t consent to. She tells Alex Casey about her experience. From her very first period at the age of 14, Laura experienced “debilitating” levels of pain that forced her to withdraw from ...22 hours ago
- IRD chases decades-old student debt for woman who never went to universityWhen Clara Owen first received a debt notice from Inland Revenue in 2018 she wondered if it was a scam The post IRD chases decades-old student debt for woman who never went to university appeared first on Newsroom. ...22 hours ago
- Green shoots prunedComment: Concerns about the state of the economy are creeping up to the top of firms’ list of challenges. That’s evident in both surveys and the tone of our recent client discussions. Skimming the past few weeks of eco-news, it’s not hard to see why. – Retail card spending fell ...22 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Thursday 9 MayThe post Daily crossword, Thursday 9 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...22 hours ago
- How the Greens could be contendersOpinion: Could former co-leader James Shaw still make a difference to working with National? The post How the Greens could be contenders appeared first on Newsroom. ...22 hours ago
- The ‘war on drugs’ is really a ‘war on people who use drugs’ – and it doesn’t workOpinion: What if we got rid of our existing drug laws and replaced them with a new law that legalised and carefully regulated all psychoactive substances, from cannabis to MDMA, methamphetamine and LSD to magic mushrooms? And which also included legal drugs such as alcohol and nicotine. “Wow,” you might ...22 hours ago
- David Seymour – not the associate education minister you expectedAnalysis: David Seymour’s school lunches programme goes further than Labour’s The post David Seymour – not the associate education minister you expected appeared first on Newsroom. ...22 hours ago
- Wayne Brown’s port deal seeks to end five years of dramaSeeking a mandated shift for Port of Auckland before he was mayor, Wayne Brown has tried demanding huge returns and leasing operations The post Wayne Brown’s port deal seeks to end five years of drama appeared first on Newsroom. ...22 hours ago
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Perhaps what is happening is far more right wing than expected, and voters are showing that.
Belladonna will be furious with this post. According to David Farrar, David Farrar's polling methods and results are beyond reproach!
Curia would not be my favourite pollster, but it is certainly more reliable than all "non-polls" which are often cited as measures of public opinion (Facebook comments, self-selecting text polls, talkback callers, the echo chamber we live in, that bloke at the bar, etc).
Comparisons within one poll history are useful. If there's a methodology bias it is constant, not jumping around from one month to the next. So this TU/Curia poll can be fairly judged in relation to previous ones. It is a bad poll for Luxon by any measure.
Not at all. I believe that Curia's results are at least as accurate as any other political poll. Not being blinded by political ideology, I take the results as they come.
You, however, must be furious – since you've made the claim that Curia is hopelessly biased and can't be believed. Now you have a result from them that you want to be true- the mental whiplash must be agonizing.
Feeling open to voting either centre-right or centre-left doesn't actually make you any less likely to hold heavy ideological biases then anybody else, you know?
But makes you far less likely to attribute left/right bias where none exists.
And no less likely to furiously blow their own trumpet – just an observation
I bow to your superior abilities along that line.
Cheers B, but don’t sell yourself short
Could be that the poll is not to be believed as the actual facts are far worse for the right?
Tho' ideologically opposed to farrar..I don't see him manipulating polls…
If only because if he were ever sprung doing it..it would seriously damage his business model…
Of course. Curia's business model (like that of all of the polling companies) is predicated on getting results as close to an accurate representation of popular opinion as possible. They and their clients have zero interest in 'telling the Emperor what he wants to hear'. The clients want the real picture (obviously the clients then want to use that data to change the public perception – but that's a completely different story)
Unfortunately, some on TS seem unable to get past their own biases to realize this.
Will Curia always be right? Of course not. Will they sometimes produce a rogue poll result? Yes, of course they will? But they'll do it to the same extent as all other polling companies. And will be highly motivated to reduce the 'error' rate as much as possible.
All of which is why – it's trends over months which matter, rather than individual poll results.
I happen to think that this one (with the fall in Luxon's popularity coinciding with the news that he was claiming a living allowance for his Wellington apartment) – is highly likely to reflect the reality – the week the poll was taken. [Whereas the previous Curia result for ACT (which got Muttonbird so hot under the collar) was, IMO, an outlier result]
What is going to be interesting is whether that drop persists – or was a temporary blip. That's where the polling trend is really interesting. In 6 months time will we see Luxon on a trend downwards (begun by this poll),;with the initial drop (from this poll) but trending upwards? or at or above January levels (with this poll a minor blip, with no long-term effect)? The left will be hoping for number 1 scenario, while the right are hoping for number 3 scenario. But we'll only know if any of them are in play after another 3 or so polls. No one can predict any of them from a single result.
Curia's "business model" is giving those that pay for their polls, the answers that want.
So..going on your reasoning..the curia clients wanted luxon to have that big drop..?
What absolute rubbish. No one. No organization. No company. No political party would pay money to be told what they already 'know' to be true.
All of them what to know the real picture – so they can then adapt their message, political strategies or marketing – to *change* that picture.
Of course, many of the customers hold this information very tightly – they don't want the 'opposition' to know the real picture.
One of the things which I appreciate about the Curia polls for the Taxpayers Union – is that they are publicly released. Unlike the Talbot Mills ones for "a corporate client" – which are leaked and/or drip fed – often in partial form. Now that's the 'corporate client' deliberately using this data to manipulate the electorate.
https://archive.ph/vluk4
Maybe – but when it comes to concealing the truth, money flows like water.
Speaking truth to power is increasingly important, and risky as it ever was.
https://teara.govt.nz/en/cartoon/33201/muldoon-on-muldoon
Has zip to do with the discussion in hand – over political polling – and whether or not it’s fake.
Quite right B – my comment was do to with the influence of (big) money on NZ politics and politicians, and the ways in which power corrupts.
https://thestandard.org.nz/about-the-promoters-electoral-returns/
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-problem-with-corporate-money-in-electorate-campaigns/
The bigger picture, if you will.
Luxon cannot rebuild his reputation with the public.
From here on in, it gets unpleasant, imo.
It was a blip for Luxon because of the housing matter, which will be easily forgotten. Support for National stayed relatively the same, which Luxon will be hoisted back up upon, imo, of course.
You wish. Luxon's losing/lost all credibility.
"Luxon will be hoisted back up", though, is a great prediction!
Looking forward to that spectacle.
No, it's not my wish. It's simply my view on what the effect of the housing issue will do to Luxon's popularity, which given the unfortunate views of much of the population, I think will be minimal.
It's not simply a blip. See the link in comment #7. Very clear historical data.
The links goes to Newshub rather, not Stuff.
[Oops my bad. Thanks for fixing Lprent – MS]
MS – you might want to also correct your reference in the last para of the post from "Government House" to "Premier House". Government House is the official residence for the Governor General, not the PM. Cheers.
🙂 Sorry I left the post locked. Was in a rush to get down to the appointment to get the newly released covid XBB vaccine after it released on Thursday.
On average since the start of the year, we have had at least one or two people per week telling us that they have tested positive and we were in contact with them the day before a positive test. Which is pretty astonishing. I am devoutly anti-social and my partner is less so, and the people we associate with tend towards being responsible. But it indicates a pretty widespread summer infection rate in the community.
Didn't want to get last years vaccine, because I'd have to wait 6 months to get the one with XBB factors in it. I’m a high probability for complications.
NACT are 47.4% – the only good thing about that is this pollster may have them on the high side.
But even so
Just not enough to move people from their vote position in 2023.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/latest-poll-christopher-luxons-popularity-crashes-after-allowance-blunder-now-trails-chris-hipkins/IFN35O3GGJGMDF7AEV73HI254U/
"Just not enough to move people from their vote position in 2023."
Too soon. People are not ready to admit, even to themselves, they got it wrong.
Yes, voters remorse…the TVNZ sackings look vindictive and strategic to this long time politics follower.
Fair Go challenges bent business practice, and Sunday actually does some investigative reporting–not what the Three Amigos would prefer–this will go beyond reckons when some OIA requests are lodged regarding timing and Melissa Lee. She did not go to ground for no reason.
My thoughts too. The link(s) to the CoC may not be direct but are too compelling to be set aside. It is my view that the legislative repeals are based more on spite and revenge than the claimed differences in ideals. That is the way of authoritarian (read right-wing) governance as has been seen time and again in other parts of the world.
You and I – and some others here – go back a long way in politics. We've seen it all before and can afford to be cynical. 😉
And Seven Sharp appears to have escaped untouched!
Go figure . . .!
What puzzles me about axing Sunday/fair go…
..is that in the grand scheme of things..both programs are as cheap as chips to make…
And why just cutting the talent/creatives..?
In that behemoth there must be layers upon layers of middle management…
Sitting in empires built over decades..
(My image of tvnz is of an elephant..with the body being the beast…and a fart coming out the actual broadcasting output..
I can't think of a more over-ruled organisation in nz..)
So why was the lens not turned in that direction..?
..instead of killing the geese that lay the golden eggs for tvnz..
It makes no sense..
TBH I do wonder if the axing of these particular shows is a cynical ploy from TVNZ – knowing that there will be a public out-cry – and therefore the possibility that additional funding will be found from somewhere (NZ on Air would be the first pick). Whereas cutting shows like Breakfast – or some of the low-audience figures (but. no doubt, worthy) shows – wouldn't attract nearly as much controversy.
In the same way, a city librarian used to regularly offer up the mobile library service on the altar of funding cuts. Knowing that it was the worst 'performing' branch in the system, but equally knowing that the passionate supporters wouldn't let it be axed. It was then harder for the powers-that-be to institute service cuts on better-performing library services.
Exactly, cynical as we are, the cancelation of two community information public service programs are being axed because citizens might obtain information from them. It is outrageous that we are subject to Breakfasts nonsense morning after morning.
A fish rots from the head.
From OP:
The poll clearly shows that National has not had a honeymoon. I can recall vividly in 2009 when John Key’s support surged and National appeared to be unbeatable. Things are way different now.
Yes. Luxon is the first PM in MMP history not to get a post-election "honeymoon".
Luxon's popularity low compared to other first-term PMs (1news.co.nz)
(note: that is not government v opposition, only the PM's personal rating. But it matters).
Based on the numbers, there has to be a lot of people who voted for Luxon et al because they wanted to better their lives, for whom things are going to get worse.
People who relished the removal of Auckland's targeted road tax, taken away with one hand and put back with another – and more piled on top. Some of the 68 TVNZ people must, by probability, have voted for Luxon. Not to mention Newshub, where the same is probably true.
Luxon denied himself a honeymoon by proving how quickly he could "get things done" (translated into "stop doing things").
And the people left behind at TVNZ, who faced losing their colleagues at about the same time as Seymour thumbed his nose at them, aren't going to be too pleased, either. Some may make up their own opinions, based on the obvious glee displayed by TVNZ’s shareholding minister.
Even those that don't subscribe to the theory that "the lack of evidence of a conspiracy just proves how deep it really is" could well believe that government intervention, which was sorely lacking, might have saved not only their colleagues but the fourth estate that they spend their waking hours upholding.
I think Seymour, Shane Jones and Luxon haven't won friends with the media and they've got a lot coming up where a few tame journos at TVNZ could have helped maintain their personal profiles.
National likes to boast about what they have "achieved" in 100 days.
What they don't boast about is how low Luxon's rating as PM is after 100 days.
New PM's usually are high in the ratings, as befits the honeymoon period of a new government.
But how many new PMs have scored a miserable 25% after 100 days in recent history?
I think he's on his own there.