Written By:
Steve Pierson - Date published:
3:00 pm, November 7th, 2008 - 56 comments
Categories: act, election 2008, greens, helen clark, john key, labour, maori party, national, progressives, united future -
Tags:
Have you still not decided who you’ll vote for? The final poll shows the race between a National/ACT/United Future or a Labour/Green/Progressive/Maori government is neck and neck, so your choice matters. Here is some advice and tools that may help:
When choosing who to vote for there are three things you should consider:
policy – what does the party plan to do? Is that in the best interests of you, your family, your community, and the wider world?
trust – do you believe that the party will do what it says it will?
competence – do you think the people who would govern if that party is in power are up to the job?
Change for its own sake is not a reason to vote for a party. The Government has a very important job, you want the best parties to make up that government. Vote on the issues that matter to you, not trivial things that parties often concentrate on. The biggest issues for most people are having a job, getting enough money to afford a decent standard of living, health and education. Real freedom is not light-bulbs, it is having the income security to afford the life you want for you and your family.
Since Labour came to power, unemployment has fallen to record lows, wages have risen strongly, crime is down, health and education have improved, Working for Families and tax cuts have reduced tax to nearly zero for many families, government debt has been reduced, and private saving has been encouraged with Kiwisaver. A Labour-Green government will continue to build on this record. This article describes NZ under a Labour-led government
National’s record is wages dropping and high unemployment, this time their policies are to weaken work rights. National will not be putting more money into health and education, it would increase government debt and cut Kiwisaver in half. National’s tax cuts would increase tax for many families and would only give others 1-2% more in after-tax income. This article describes NZ under a National-led government
– This test calculates how well your personal views line up with the policies of each party
– This tax cut calculator is the only one that includes money you would lose from Kiwisaver contributions under National.
– The Standard Line series of posts addresses a number of the issues that have arisen during this campaign.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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The site will be off line for some hours.
Are you talking about the latest Roy Morgan poll. Nats down one and Labour up 2 – only 7% between them and the Greens over 10%. take a look at http://www.roymorgan.com
I can’t see Nat doing it.
The polling is more systemically bias this time around than last for reasons outlined and argued on previous posts.
And how many undecided voters got completely turned off by JK in his private jet wank fest?
Anyhow, whatever happens we lose, ’cause no matter which way you vote, the government always gets in. sigh
Good bye Labour! Yeeha!
Sorry wasn’t paying attention – distracted by the massive hail storm here which still has ice all over the ground,.and the silly things people were saying on National Radio about polls, but not this one obviously. Thanks for the break down of the RM – didn’t see it earlier.
“Anyhow, whatever happens we lose, ’cause no matter which way you vote, the government always gets in. sigh”
LMAO
Labour’s record is making government bigger and more draconian, nanny state leading onto police state. Social engineering reforms without any reasonable justification are intended to break down the traditional structures of stability in society and create additional justification for Government intervention.
If re-elected “the most left wing government in 70 years” would most likely move even further in this direction renationalising Telecom (or at least its lines) and Contact Energy thus restoring key monopolies in government ownership. There would be further legislation aimed at cracking down on key freedoms, we could expect to see the Press Council which handles complaints against newspapers overthrown in favour of a government controlled body similar to the BSA for example. Hate speech legislation is likely since it was blocked during the previous term by United Future.
In continuing its leftward direction Labour as always would empower trade unions with more opportunities to strong-arm private business owners and entrench their existing strong monopolistic powers in existing legislation.
All of the above ultimately represents serious threats to our freedoms as individuals and to democracy as an institution. Democracy is strongest in societies where capitalism is practiced. The USA is one of the world’s most democratic country.
New Zealand has had to endure years of democracy being weakened, not only by the Left promoting MMP, but by the successive Labour governments dismantling all protections built into our system. MMP is a total crock and the succession of increasingly bizarre governments that Clark has cobbled together is a total joke.
Lab/Greens ahead and Winnie on 4.5%……….
Newsworthy?
Watch closely tonight how much airtime this poll gets: genuine litmus test of the true nature of our mainstream media.
“gee anyone would think I was voting for National”
dave it’s obvious you’re one of those really smart righties who votes for act but if you don’t realise that you’re voting for a national govt then you’re even more deluded than you seem.
Oh Steve, that wasn’t you screaming “John Key the anti Obama”
Hopefully people will vote on what politicians are more honest, and who would be best for the country, and use stats and hard data and science to make their choice, and I hope nutters who thinks crying catch phrases make them a political scientist forget to vote.
FINAL PREDICTION
National 50%
Labour 31%
Maori party 8%
Greens 6%
NZFirst 2%
Act 2%
United .8%
Others .2 %
Well, it’s going to be interesting to watch the results and see how much they match up the the media hype & polls. If National forms a government, IMO, it won’t be a very stable or productive one. The majority will be too slim and fractures within the Nats and between their coalition partners will result in all kinds of problems. And their policies are yesterday’s ones. There will be a new economic approach internationally that leaves ACT especially, and a lot of the old faces in the Nats, completely out of step.
OTOH, if we get an LPG + M agreement to govern, it will provide the possibilties for negotiating a new way forward in difficult times. If they don’t get to govern, they’ll take the time to forge a new way forward anyway, in preparation for their next stint in government. The have a positive working relationship amongst the left parties.
But, a Labour led government this time round is still a possibility.
So I’m giving my electorate vote to the Labour candidate – the most worthy left candidate. And I’m giving my party vote to the Greens.
Labour’s practical systems and exepertise, and Clark’s skills in managing support aggreements + The Greens (and MP) new ideas will result in forging a new way forward. It will be focussed in the right direction for the future problems (on the environment & support for a work places, that positively nurtures workers, as well as sustainable and productive businesses, plus social policies that will promote communities worth living in).
Whatever happens, the left won’t lose in the middle term, because the Labour government have laid the appropriate ground work.
dave it’s obvious you’re one of those really smart righties who votes for actWhy bring my name into this thread?
[she was talking about Australian Dave. SP]
Confirmation of the state of our press…..latest and most historically accurate poll ignored, after the huge meal made of previous ones (including in tonight’s bulletins).
Election 08: a handful of “journalists” just doing their masters’ work…..
dave cause you piss over everything else!
[this post is specifically for undecided voters coming on the net before voting, they’re likely to be new to blog threads, lets not have you and dave putting them off. SP]
Helen asked Stacey Jones to come out of retirement and go back to NRL and he has. Only the news is only reporting the coming out of retirement bit.
AK, it’s because the news media also focus mostly on their own polls. it’s their way of creating ‘news”.
After this election I think it will be time to demand a better MSM…. or maybe the election will just show they are irrelevant?
Very interesting link to the political quiz. It directed me to vote National, but alas that would be supporting the likes of Lockwood and Maurice and quiet frankly they scare me more than the ebola virus.
Go team purple.
Hoolian
Im guessing you was a premature baby, now a premature man!
[criticise without getting personal. SP]
Swampy,
how do you feel about the fact that Key has said it will be a priority to start collecting DNA samples from everyone charged with an offence that could receive a jail sentence.
Note that that is charged, not convicted and that the sample will not be destroyed. The state will be collecting and retaining DNA samples from innocent citizens under a Key led government.
Nah. I’m guessing you are talking about Civil Unions and the like? If so you’ve got it barse ackwards. The biggest proponents of social engineering in that case were those who felt that the State should only recognise certain types of relationships.
I can’t really be bothered with the rest of your paranoid speculations, which are wrong in any case, the next thing on the agenda is actually The Compulsory Gay [Mandatory ManDates for Tories] Bill.
This though, The USA is one of the world’s most democratic country., is funny.
Just watched all the closing statements as party political broadcasts on TV One.
Key made all those promises about cutting buearocracy in the public services. Actually, that hasn’t grown out of step with the development of frontline services. His focus on education is good, but the testiing idea just doesn’t stack up. There’s enuff stuff going on to monitor students. And time spent on testing against national standards, just increases buearocracy unnecessarily – contradicts the claims he makes to bwant to cut such stuff.
Why do Key and Hide keep getting filmed driving around in cars – not very good for the environement and wastes fuel resources..
The Nat closing address vid tried to be presidential, but came off looking like one of those work-place training vids one has to watch on in-service training days.
Clark & Anderton went for the depression era fireside chats, aimed at talking directly to the people, responding to what they wanted in difficult times. Might not go down well with the younger generation used to multimedia, and fast-paced sight and sound, that caters to short attention spans. I noticed that Clark was critical of Key and National, but no more so than Key was of Labour. It’s interesting how Key claims he concentrated on a positive campaign, unlike Labour whohe says just tried to smear him and his party [note the contradiction – smears Labour and Clark by saying they are the smear artisits.]
The Maori Party had a cool vid, focused on the people, and their energy & sense of community, and on their relation to land and precious resources. Best vid of the bunch IMO..
The Greens had cool visuals & a great message, but I wasn’t too keen on the wispy languid music.
Winstone gave us some stern and stirring stuff for troubling and dangerous times. He spoke fearlessly against the media and vested interests who had tried to bring him (and democracy) down. He pledged to fight them in the bus queus and the train stations, with his followers bravely weilding their gold cards. He promised to stand up to the evil money traders and foreign vested interests that will rip off our banks and businesses. And he rounded it all off with a Winstonian victory sign.
Hide – geez,he just looks like he’s auditioning for reality TV. He reminds me of an old guy at a party, dressed to look young, who tries to make you laugh with weak jokes, and dance with you when you’re trying to avoid him. God I hope he loses!
ok
take randals advice kiddies
VOTE LABOUR!
Randal. I’ll vote for the local Labour candidate – actually a cabinet minister.
I forgot to mention the closing statement by Peter Dunne (UF). Actually I hardly watched it. I was bored as soon as he started talking and went to attend to a chore. He talked a bit about the importance of coalitions and working well in relationship with coalition parners. Made me laugh, as it just reminded me of how he and potential coalition partner, Hide, were arguing heavily against not wanting to support each other’s policies – on RadioNZ National’s Morning Report, Minor leaders’ debate earlier this week.
That’s all I saw of his closing statement vid.
his haircut wasn’t up to much either!
anyway
the local nat mp is gonna get rolled here too
Carol, thanks for the reports.
Dunne makes my fist itch.
Total empty vessel.
People bag Winston for being a self promoting unprincipled parasite, and rightly so, but widdle Peter does the same bloody thing using boredom as a shield. No one can stand paying attention to him for more than 10 seconds lest their brain freezes, so he just keeps getting away with it.
When he had his big success and the worm people fell in love with him he ended up dragging a bunch of evangelicals into parliament. No worries, I don’t care. I’d like to see some more of them in there actually, Heighten the contradictions like.
But the thing was that nobody knew until they were there. Ther were stories in the paper about “OHMIGOD look who Petries friends are, who knew?” He certainly didn’t say who was on his little list to the broader public. They were there as payback for something, either donations, on the ground workers or whatever. He hooked up with them as a tactical move to keep ‘imself in parliament, and when they got embarrassing he dropped them like rotten boogers. Tried to keep them quiet as MP’s, (though there was that one chap that went on hunger strike about some eeevil thing), and generally treated them like serfs.
Wot a shit.
Vote him out.
It seems likely that, as happened in the Australian Liberal party, the upper ranks of Labour will dessert their parliamentary careers for greener pastures soon after their humiliating defeat, leaving an inexperienced rump of a party that will barely be able to mount a credible challenge in the following term.
So this election will in fact dictate a centre-right government for the next six years…and there is nothing wrong with that.
mmm, dessert. my girlfriend is promising exactly that but won’t make up her mind what she’s making
seti the search for extraterrestial intelligence foundered when they discovered you
nevermind
it proves you are not what you claim to be
the natoinal party is out on its feet
all the yesterdays men who never were todays men will be swept away by the tide while Lbour and the greens grapple with real issues besides lining ones own pockets with other peoples money
Keys is good at that
he got away with $50,000,000 but he aint gonna get away with any of mine
Just watched the alt tv interview with Helen Clark was the best one ive seen of her, shame it wasn’t on tv1 or mainstream media so a few undecided voters could watch. If Labour doesn’t make the numbers it will be the best government to be voted out of office, will be close and I hope Winnie can scrape in , besides most of his supporters would hang up on pollsters so maybe his support base is better than it shows..
bobo
that is why natoinal are so desperate
this IS the best government New Zealand has had for a very long time yet the tory wreckers just want to get in there and loot the treasury and state assets like they always do after Labour has straightened out their last mess
don’t lie steve. You don’t have a girlfriend – enjoy making your own dessert tonight. Hope you can make up your mind.
(trolling is permited on elections-eve don’t you know)
[it appears it will be some kind of ginger cake. SP]
PB: At the cost of a Nat government for three (or if you believe the hacks, six) years?
(I’m agnostic on ths point, so it’s not a leading question 🙂 )
L
Those who will abondon the party, of note –
Uncle Helen
Cullen
Mallard
Barker
Tizard
Burton
Street
Dalziel
Chadwick
O’Connor
…as well as a host of back benches.
There will also be a certain amount of bloodletting in the Goff-Cunliffe battle leaving many of their losing supporters disillusioned, prompting another exodus.
Of course Winnie, his team, Anderton and Fitzsimons will also be gone.
I actually feel sorry for the left…sort of.
Randal – hopefully we aren’t talking about buying back the rail, bringing back kiwibank and getting rid of an employers contract act , 8 years from now… a bit like how america has been in a redneck time warp since Pres Clinton went..
forgetaboutthelastone – haven’t you got a National party pre-win nasty 90s yuppies & traders themed party to go to tonight?.. the last one the nats thought they had in the bag too. I always back the underdog not a dog of a party.
Alt TV interview with Helen Clark by Oliver Driver was excellent. Pity too late to link to it for others who missed it. She was much more relaxed and candid, and lighting less harsh. Mentioned how her husband and mother are very upset by the attacks on her, that National went looking for dirt on her husband’s academic career (I wonder why she hadn’t raised that before?), and how the left and right have such different values and policies. Mentioned that Stacey Jones’ public endorsement was in response to the League-ies fury over the other two backing Key in South Akld the other day. Oliver was a great interviewer and finally asked the sort of questions that I wanted to hear about.
And thanks Standard for the wonderful election information and support over the last few months. Kept us sane, informed and connected. I’m not surprised that even the righties like it.
As things stand right now, NZ could be ahead of the game given the crunch about to descend. Every other country is belatedly moderating free-market policies to something not dissimilar to what labour has been doing for the past 9 years (right wing free-market with the edges smoothed). They will probably go ever further left as reality dictates.
Meanwhile, NZ is meant to be 20 – 25 years behind everyone else. Hence the need for Key and National.
So vote Nat to get NZ back where it belongs in the global scheme of things.
seti I think your parents must have abandoned you at birth and that is why youhave such a jaundiced view of the world
none of those people will abandon the Labour Party
they have principles anda desire to do the right thing
they are not fly by night carpetbagging tories
take ahike dude
What impresses me about the steady trickle of noxious righties with their flacid little ‘pre-gloats’ of a runaway National victory, like Seti above, is just how little they care.
1. They don’t care that gloating is rude.
2. They don’t care that it reveals a meaness of spirit and a weakness of character.
3. They don’t care that in the not implausible event of Labour/Greens forming a coalition govt, that they will have been proven wrong.
4. They don’t even care that all their blowhard piffle reveals that they do not even understand the basics of MMP.
This inablility to care, a lack of empathy and understanding of how your actions or words might be read by others, is the defining feature of right wing politics. They are the centre of their own little universes; devoid it would seem of any other consideration but themselves.
Elections come and go, as do governments from time to time. Even sadly, good ones. It is the price we pay for being loyal to the principle of democracy. Tommorrrow, regardless of the result, I urge those of us on the left to pay that price with dignity.
My prediction is that the result will be close. The difference between the major blocs will likely be in the order of a handful of seats. In that we should all take pause, for in it there will be no cause for overweaning joy, nor sneering put-downs from either side. This nation, along with the whole of humanity, is facing a critical juncture in the affairs of civilisation. Important choices face us all that wholly transcend the petty bickerings of partisan politics.
I do not believe that National has demonstrated any capacity to cope with the radical transformations that are about to be thrust on us all, whether we like it or not. Their policies are fundamentally rooted in the same worldview that bought us the Muldoon and Bolger govts. Even the faces have not changed, nor have they appeared to learn much, except to how to run more deceptive election campaigns. But in doing so they have explicitly made promises that will prove vexacious to honour, and for this reason a National led govt would likely tear itself apart within a single term.
And as much as Labour has long served the ordinary working people of this nation with vision, courage and steadiness…. I believe that this election will be seen as a turning point in which the Greens will have the opportunity to lay an enduring claim to being the future of the left. Moreover the Maori Party will likely face it’s first real political testing, and out of that any lingering delusions about whether the interests of the Maori people and that of the capitalist/ownership class can be politically accomodated will get sorted.
Regardless the actual outcome tommorrow (and that is far too close to call) I remain both hopeful and profoundly optimistic for this country. Latent within the Maori, Green and Labour parties are people of tremendous vision and leadership capacity. They will not remain unheeded for long.
bobo – nah coz i is voting the greens tomorrow.
i’m quite relieved the whole campaign is over really. been thinking Labour would probbly lose this one for over a year now so its nice they are still in with a chance.
there has not been a lot of talk about the consequences of national losing again this time – i can hardly imagine the awesomeness of that scenario – and the MSM would be doomed.
Lew, probably not.
feck.
I’d be interested to see how National’s factions survive government though. Key’s got them playing a funny little tune ideologically, and coalition partners will be in the mix as if the DeeJays had one too many pills. oompsta graunchda oompittty clunk.
And if the left gets in, Dunne may resign rather than face up to his burnt bridges I suppose.
not sure the morgan poll is too exciting – poll period october 20 thru nov 2nd. a little bit out of date even though it is the last to be released (nice marketing gary morgan). Safe to assume half the respondents were polled prior to october 27 a lot has happened in the last 10 days, most negative or Labour..
Herald poll period october 29 thru nov 5 – much more current. Not sure of the TV3 an TVNZ polling periods…..
dont worry folks
have faith
john keys is gonna get wendell wilkied
wiki that
hehehehehehe
To be honest I thought they were going to lose the last one after watching the first few hours of results on tv, but they pulled through and the media grinds down your expectations of Labour winning if you believe it all. But National still haven’t groomed any major coalition partner apart from the usual, would be suicide for Maori to go with them in the end.
quite an inspirational comment there RedLogix – cheers!
If National wins does that mean the Guru Kevin Roberts will resettle here ready to rebrand NZ under John Keys tourism portfolio… 100% black polar neck sweaters….
gotta go now folks
have ahappy election
SP AND LPRENT THANKS FOR THE RIDE
and make sure the tories dont get the last word
bye for now
Have a good one Randal 🙂
ReLogix: I agree with you. Over on Colin Espiners blog there is a whole team of posters who say the most nasty of anti-Clark, anti- Labour, anti all things liberal. I asked of them what effect did they think they had on the 90% of the people who just look but don’t post? (90% watch, 9% post sometimes, 1% post a lot) I suggested that the nasty stuff that they post would be unlikely to get others to join them and it certainly put me off. I would not like any of the poisonous ones standing behind me ever. The dialog amongst the right, centre, and left can be good fun and informative but there is nothing from the nasty ones.
Its Over – and you tomorrow night will be crying into your Lion Red while the Nats swill French champagne to celebrate the demise of the most corrupt government this country has known.
But we are a kid caring bunch on the right – so while you are drowning your sorrows maybe you will wantt o play this classic from Roy Orbison
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dA7zNk2YLk a wonderful tune
Hey look, Monty said something on topic, and proved a point.
The wonders never cease.
night all, Vote before you drink.
Well I actually concur with your sentiments RedLogix however if the situation was reversed and it appeared National was about to be routed I doubt very much you would extend yourself to be the voice of restraint as the rabid left twisted the knife.
Of course I could be wrong…
RL: The long game is important, and I agree with you – the outcome tomorrow will be important mostly as a stage-setting exercise for years to come. The major achievement of the Thatcher Years was to move the political centre; and the major achievement of the Clark government thus far has been in changing NZ’s political orthodoxy. It’ll take a lot of changing back.
As far as I’m concerned, there is only one genuinely bad outcome from this election – and that’s Nat/ACT/UF in government alone. If the mÄori party end up in there, they’ll be a powerful moderating influence – especially if they have more MPs than ACT. They’ll change the face of NZ politics if they’re in government, and I’ll be genuinely pleased if the Nats will work with them. I’d have said the same of the Greens.
National have campaigned on a liberal (in the American sense) platform: on 28 August John Key said “I’m not going to campaign on a moderate, pragmatic, progressive agenda for New Zealand and then sign up to a radical right-wing agenda.” If he goes back on this statement, which was made explicit on this and other occasions and was a common thread through the campaign, National will have to answer to the electorate. That is the self-correcting nature of democracy, and whichever way the cake gets sliced tomorrow and in the following days, my ultimate faith is not in a party or a group of parties – but in the wisdom of crowds. As they say, it’s hard to fool all the people all the time, and despite mounting evidence to the contrary I retain my faith in people to make good decisions.Individual people, no matter their ideology, do not have a monopoly on wisdom.
Activists I know have talked about a 1,000 day campaign if the Nats win, and I think that’s what will happen, and it’ll be important and relevant.Whoever wins this election has a hard road ahead of them – like Barack Obama has a hard road ahead of him as POTUS. Whoever wins the election will have to put up or shut up – the pretty talk which wins elections will simply not cut it. Those of you who genuinely believe John Key is an empty vessel should be rejoicing – because if he is, he’ll fail in the coming years, and be supplanted by a superior alternative in 2011. I don’t think John Key is an empty vessel, and my concern isn’t that he’ll win – it’s that he’ll win and be competent enough to make significant changes to political orthodoxy in NZ. The dude is hyper-competent, he’s driven, he’s ruthless, he’s decisive and he’s pragmatic. That makes him dangerous.
This is what the Labour campaign should have been about all along, and if they lose tomorrow, in a sense they’ll have deserved their fate.
L
Any thoughts about Pundit saying that Labour’s internal polling by UMR has Labour-Green ahead of National-Act by one point?
And what I got from the article was that it was simply Labour and Green.
Doubt its accuracy, but food for thought I guess.
Pascal’s bookie
November 7, 2008 at 7:35 pm
Swampy,
Labour’s record is making government bigger and more draconian, nanny state leading onto police state.
how do you feel about the fact that Key has said it will be a priority to start collecting DNA samples from everyone charged with an offence that could receive a jail sentence.
— Where has that statement been made? reference?
Social engineering reforms without any reasonable justification are intended to break down the traditional structures of stability in society
Nah. I’m guessing you are talking about Civil Unions and the like? If so you’ve got it barse ackwards. The biggest proponents of social engineering in that case were those who felt that the State should only recognise certain types of relationships.
— How about, Labour liberalises the sale of alcohol back in Helen Clark’s DPM days, then they have just realised it caused a few problems
This though, The USA is one of the world’s most democratic country., is funny.
In the US they have
– Written constitution that all laws have to conform with.
– 2 houses
– binding referenda in a lot of states (Propositions)
NZ only has a dumb electoral system called MMP and nothing else to protect democracy. Bill of Rights can’t be enforced, single house and no respect even for non-binding referendums.
It will be what it will be. Get some sleep. I’ll see you all on the other side when we see who gets to say “we won, you lost – eat that!”.
Swampy: Know what you’re voting for.
“Currently, DNA samples can be taken only with a suspect’s consent, or where people are suspected of an offence punishable by more than seven years imprisonment.
That requirement precludes DNA samples being taken from those suspected of a wide ranges of significant offences, such as assault with a weapon. And it requires police officers to go through the complex process of applying to the High Court for leave to take a DNA sample where consent is not obtained.
National thinks DNA samples should be taken in a wider range of circumstances.
So, we will require DNA samples to be taken from all those arrested for offences punishable by a term of imprisonment.”
http://www.johnkey.co.nz/index.php?/archives/267-SPEECH-To-the-Police-Association-National-Conference.html
L
Your tax cut calculator is seriously broken.
On my salary of 58.5k, it says that I will get 37.76 / week under Labour in 2008. What I actually get (and this is reflected in my actual payslip) is 16.53 / week.
Also cell B80 has a mistake in it, it should be / 52.178.