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Open Mike 28/11/2016

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, November 28th, 2016 - 88 comments
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88 comments on “Open Mike 28/11/2016”

  1. Paul 1

    It would appear the climate is spinning out of control.
    All other news seems to fade into insignificance as a result.

    ‘Things are getting weird in the polar regions’
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/21/things-are-getting-weird-in-the-polar-regions/?utm_term=.37d956c3d647&wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

    Climate change happening ‘too fast’ for plant and animal species to adapt.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/climate-change-extinction-species-happening-too-fast-for-plant-and-animals-to-adapt-a7433111.html

    Arctic ice melt could trigger uncontrollable climate change at global level
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/25/arctic-ice-melt-trigger-uncontrollable-climate-change-global-level

    Starvation has killed 80,000 reindeer in Siberia because of melting sea ice
    Arctic tundra warming at a faster rate than the rest of the globe
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/starvation-reindeer-siberia-melting-sea-ice-global-warming-climate-change-a7434746.html

    Guy McPherson: “I can’t imagine there will be a human on the planet in 10 years” He would be worth listening to in Wellington on the 6th December.
    https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/whole-tour.jpg

    Here is his interview on Paul Henry.

    • Cinny 1.1

      Last week we were swimming in the sea, it was so hot here. This morning it’s freezing, fresh dusting of snow on the mountains and hills, which will melt fast once the sun hits it, but it is unusual weather for this time of year. Hot/Cold weather = earthquakes.

      Climate change is very really and our whole human existence depends on it, it’s nuts how little coverage media gives it, seeing they talk about the weather every hour on the wireless.
      Thanks for the links Paul, will check them out.

    • Richard McGrath 1.2

      Weren’t we told the point of no return into irreversible global immolation was several years ago? Why then do people persist in what must be a futile attempt to reverse something that can’t be changed for the better?

      • mauī 1.2.1

        Guys idea is to hold hands with your clan, sing kumbaya and wait until the asteroid hits. Pretty nuts. Don’t question the cult leader though..

    • BM 1.3

      How much money does this chap make from these speaking tours?

    • if you believe doomer guy and no one would be around in 10 years why waste time and energy going to his talk – doesn’t make sense.

  2. Stunned mullet 2

    Sigh ….guy macpherson is lie a photonegative of a
    climate change denier.

    • Paul 2.1

      And what is your view about what is going on in the Arctic?
      Have you read Peter Wadham’s ‘A Farewell to Ice? Scientist with over 30 years experience in the Arctic.
      James Renwick is discussing Arctic ice on Kathryn Ryan this morning btw.

      • Cinny 2.1.1

        Shhhhh don’t mention the Arctic, global warming is good for business, new shipping routes take less time, less cost, less danger, less ice. Money first is the right wing way, profit over the planet, look at the current government, shocking.

      • stunned mullet 2.1.2

        “And what is your view about what is going on in the Arctic?”

        Ice melt is faster and more complete each year due to climate change.

        “Have you read Peter Wadham’s ‘A Farewell to Ice? Scientist with over 30 years experience in the Arctic.”

        Nope.

      • Macro 2.1.3

        Paul – James Renwick will not be mentioning Guy McPherson
        If you really want to draw attention to the very real concern of AGW, please do not continue to drag in this alarmist, because he undermines the real science with his outlandish claims. There are very few Climate scientists who support his claims. Yes the threat of AGW is real and the impending catastrophic outcomes may be far more horrific than most people are aware. However to over egg the threat is just as damaging as under estimating.

        • Colonial Viper 2.1.3.1

          So now you think we should only listen to Climate Change scientists who operate at an acceptable severity rating? It’s bad, but not too bad. It’s still hopeful but not 100% hopeful. We still have time to act and change, not too much time, but just enough time, still.

          That’s delusional thinking IMO.

          McPherson is the only person I know who has put the big picture together with the absolute latest in literature from across multiple fields.

          For instance, you can’t object to McPherson saying that there are now multiple positive feedback loops in full swing, making human action to reduce CO2 emissions largely irrelevant.

          So whether McPherson is right about the ten year time frame or it is in fact going to be twenty years or thirty years is a bit beside the point – climate change is most probably unstoppable at this stage and it will be catastrophic for the habitat that the human race needs to survive.

          • McFlock 2.1.3.1.1

            But if he’s wrong and the timeframe is fifty years, and we can stop it in thirty, then he’s doing humanity a disservice by throwing his hands in the air and preaching the futility of effort.

            We should listen to the bulk of scientists, not the extreme fringes. The fringes can occasionally be coincidentally correct, but usually the most accurate assessment based on information available at the time comes from within the scientific consensus.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.3.1.1.1

              1) Nothing is going to be ‘stopped in 30 years.’ Non-man controllable positive feed back loops are already in full swing. And even ignoring them, if we ended the burning of fossil fuels tonight, additional warming from current record levels of GHGs would continue for another 50-100 years, taking us well beyond 2 deg C warming.

              2) McPherson is closer to where the mainstream scientific position would be if scientists did not have to worry about looking and sounding respectable to get their next government grant and their next peer reviewed paper published.

            • Colonial Viper 2.1.3.1.1.2

              The bulk of scientists have to worry about appearing respectable, trying to get tenure, sounding like they are mainstream enough to get their papers through peer review boards, and appearing optimistic enough to get the next round of research grants.

              Governments aren’t interested in funding people with relentlessly bad news.

              • McFlock

                The bulk of scientists have to worry about appearing respectable,

                lol

                trying to get tenure,

                It is a struggle – best achieved by coming up with research outputs that change conventional thinking or at least add to the sum of human knowledge (in those countries where tenure still exists, of course)

                sounding like they are mainstream enough to get their papers through peer review boards,

                That’s not how peer review works. Look at the EM drive.

                and appearing optimistic enough to get the next round of research grants.

                That’s not how grants work.

              • Macro

                A more detailed analysis as to how Guy McPherson gets it wrong is available here:

                https://fractalplanet.wordpress.com/2014/02/17/how-guy-mcpherson-gets-it-wrong/

                Scott Johnson
                Is a geoscience educator, hydrogeologist, and freelance science writer contributing at Ars Technica. He is also Science Editor for Climate Feedback.

                and then there is Michael Tobas here:
                http://planet3.org/2014/03/13/mcphersons-evidence-that-doom-doom-doom/
                On McPhersons so called “multiplicative feedbacks”.
                Michael Tobis, is editor-in-chief of Planet3.0 and site cofounder, he has always been interested in the interface between science and public policy. He holds a doctorate from the University of Wisconsin – Madison in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences where he developed a 3-D ocean model on a custom computing platform. He has been involved in sustainability conversations on the internet since 1992,

                As Skeptical Science puts it here
                https://www.skepticalscience.com/toward-improved-discussions-methane.html

                Methane feedbacks in the Arctic are going to be important for future climate change, just like the direct emissions from humans. This includes substantial regions of shallow permafrost in the Arctic, which is already going appreciable change. Much larger changes involving hydrate may be important longer-term. Nonetheless, these feedbacks need to be kept in context and should be thought of as one of the many other carbon cycle feedbacks, and dynamic responses, that supplement the increasing anthropogenic CO2 burden to the atmosphere. There is no evidence that methane will run out of control and initiate any sudden, catastrophic effects. There’s certainly no runaway greenhouse. Instead, chronic methane releases will supplement the primary role of CO2. Eventually some of this methane oxidizes into CO2, so if the injection is large enough, it can add extra CO2 forcing onto the very long term evolution of global climate, over hundreds to thousands of years.

                my bold

        • One Anonymous Bloke 2.1.3.2

          The recent US election has prompted cries that the decision on Earth’s climate has now been irrevocably made, that the US has unilaterally decided to scrap the peak warming target from the Paris agreement of 1.5 oC. What do the numbers say? Is Earth’s climate now irrevocably fracked?

          The short answer is that, strictly speaking, the future of global climate would have been fracked even had the election gone the other way, unless stronger action to cut CO2 emissions is taken, very soon.

          Prof. David Archer at Realclimate.

          Worth reading the whole article for some perspective.

        • weka 2.1.3.3

          Thanks for that antidote to the alarmist stuff Macro. It seems very important to me that we have such responses that are grounded and evenhanded and based in knowledge, including when people react against what you say and misinterpret it.

          (Me, I just want to call McPherson a traitor but am biting my tongue as much as I can).

  3. Ad 3

    Is Penny Hulse Jill Stein’s doppelganger?

  4. Richard McGrath 4

    Latest Colmar Brunton good news for the Left… Labour 28%, Labour-lite 50%, Greens 10%

    • Puckish Rogue 4.1

      No no you don’t understand this is a great, not good, result for the left, here let me explain it for you

      See if you look at the poll you’ll see John Key has dropped, yes dropped, in his popularity which shows that the people of NZ now see him how the left see him (evil in case you were wondering)

      Also you must, I say must, add Winston Peters into the left block because as we all know Winston Peters will go with the left block because his ego is such that he would have no problems being the third wheel behind Labour and the Greens as opposed to being the tail wagging the dog with National

      So its actually a great result and besides the only poll that counts is on election day and Trump and Brexit shows that the polls don’t count and will sweep Labour into victory and Jesus will love us

      Yeah

      • Gabby 4.1.1

        On the bright side it keeps Labour focused on opposing harmful policies instead of kicking the poor in the teeth, and National implementing Labour’s good ideas.

    • NotMe 4.2

      When are these rogue polls going to stop?

      • When are these Rogue comments going to stop?

        • Puckish Rogue 4.2.1.1

          Can’t speak for anyone else but in a little under three weeks from now I’ll be knocking off for Christmas 🙂

          • Robert Guyton 4.2.1.1.1

            Your Christmas gift to The Standard! It would be fun to write a little serial while you are away about how you’ll spend your Christmas break: painstakingly drafting John’s Christmas card then hand writing the craven thing using a drop of blood squeezed ecstatically from a prick to your finger tip, wrapping up the print-outs from all your trolling and posting that into HQ for the archives, opening the brown-paper packet they send back to you as “thanks” for your efforts through the year, sitting beneath the portrait of your Dear Leader, tossing back egg nog after egg nog in an ongoing toast to his brilliance, giving the bright blue sock hanging above the fireplace a furtive squeeze (will he remember me this year?) before standing expectantly under the mistletoe for half an hour or so, then trotting upstairs to bed, to dream, to sleep the sleep of the just…do you think I’d have an audience for that sort of gripping stuff? You know I mean this in the kindest way, Pucky, it being the Season of Goodwill (nearly). In any case, looking forward to your break almost as much as you are 🙂

    • The Chairman 4.3

      Waits for Little to pull out another poll showing Labour is on track to win.

      Seriously though, with the next election less than a year away and with Labour still struggling to get any traction (despite all the work done on their Future of Work) do they have anything significant to pull out of their hat which will win-over voters?

      • Draco T Bastard 4.3.1

        do they have anything significant to pull out of their hat which will win-over voters?

        So far, nope.

        They’re still hanging on to the failed neo-liberal ideology. The ideology that’s seen voters leave them in droves.

        National’s winning because Labour’s not changing.

        • The Chairman 4.3.1.1

          I often wonder when are left leaning voters and the Unions going to give up on them altogether?

          The left have been waiting for years now for Labour to up their game. It seems they are incapable.

          It’s time we all found another left-wing party to support.

        • Peter 4.3.1.2

          You hit the nail on the head again

    • DoublePlusGood 4.4

      So it’s Centre-left 11%, Centre-right 28%, Nationalists 10%, Bumbling right wing incompetents 50%, sundry parasites with electorate seats 1%.
      That’s basically appalling, and it does look like New Zealand is going to vote for more self-flagellation and failure next year.

  5. James 5

    Has to be bogus. How cannnational still be so popular after all these years???

    Cannot wait for Andrew little to come out with their own polling that shows labour doing so so so much better.

    Funny isn’t it that the only poll that shows labour doing ok is the one they pay for.

    • James 5.1

      Now just waiting for someone to say trump or brexit as an example of why the polls don’t matter.

      • NotMe 5.1.1

        Little’s excuse was that the US election distracted everybody.

        • Anne 5.1.1.1

          Yeah… it was true. Trump even made Key look good in comparison.

          • James 5.1.1.1.1

            Yeah – pity for Andrew Little that Trump couldn’t even make him look good.

            • Robert Guyton 5.1.1.1.1.1

              James – you hang around The Standard like a human botfly inserting your eggs into the body of the discussion where ever you can – does this bring you some sort of parasitical joy? Or is it that you are driven by your DNA to infest for the sake of reproduction? Are there more of you gestating? Should the moderators stock up on swats?

              • james

                So stating Trump makes Key = good comment, but saying that Trump dosnt make little look good makes me a human botfly.

                Sorry that I dont echo the lines that you want Robert.

              • Anne

                No s.o.h. these little RWNJ bots Robert.

                At least PR and one or two others do exhibit moments of wit that makes them human rather than bots.

                • Puckish Rogue

                  I’ve always felt you’re more perceptive then most and more able to look past the political leanings of the poster and consider the argument on its own merits 🙂

      • The polls! The polls! I’m picturing the viscera-readers of ancient times, huddled over the newly-slaughtered beast, peering into the mass of glistening organs, seeing futures in the slippery goop – it’s not the seers who make me laugh, theirs is a lucrative pursuit, it’s the slack-jawed, wall-eyed crowd standing anxiously about, hanging on their every word.

      • Cinny 5.1.3

        James… Dude, the outgoing PM is downward trending in the polls, and he is very uncomfortable about it. Should have seen him on TVNZ this morning, he was making every excuse imaginable to explain why he is consistently declining in the polls.

        https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/blame-you-its-your-fault-john-keys-tongue-in-cheek-explanation-jack-tame-popularity-drop

        • NotMe 5.1.3.1

          Let’s not forget that Little dropped from 10% to 8%, effectively shedding 20% of his support…

        • Alan 5.1.3.2

          Cinny…dude…at 50% party vote for National within a year of the election your “outgoing PM ” line is looking a little sick.

          • james 5.1.3.2.1

            Cinny has been working on that meme for ages – best to just ignore – although I think we will be reading it until at least 2020.

          • save nz 5.1.3.2.2

            Key is just going to become another Toady (Tony) Blair. Still trying to be relevant and justify his bad decisions years down the track.

            Blair like Key just gamed everything to make himself look good on the world stage and be powerful – until one day – he wasn’t and will soon become too scared to travel incase one day he is picked up and tried at the Hague.

        • Colonial Viper 5.1.3.3

          Cinny, swordfish explained very clearly last night that Key’s declining numbers are not associated with a corresponding increase in Labour’s.

          Open Mike 27/11/2016

          • Cinny 5.1.3.3.1

            Yesah, Swordfish sure did a great job, lots of numbers clearly demonstrating the downward trend.

            I’m not interested in other political parties atm, i’m interested in the trends of the outgoing government.

            You know what… why have some of you Tories got the meows with me? Did I touch a nerve?

            Nessalt it is not the slowest drop in the history of politics, that’s a lie. And with MMP who knows what’s going to happen next election, it’s not a two party race anymore and hasn’t been for a long time. Long live MMP

            How’s his support partners doing?
            By crikey Maori Party has fallen to 1%,
            ACT and Dunne don’t even get a mention, no one chose them when rung about the poll.
            As well 13% of people are undecided voters
            National would not be able to govern alone

            See for yourselves, graphs and everything…

            Click to access Preliminary_ONE-News-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report-Nov-12-13-21-23.pdf

        • Nessalt 5.1.3.4

          it’s the slowest drop in the history of politics. The trend line that shows you that John Key’s personal pm preference ratings as dropping, also shows that he’ll be in power for two more elections. He’ll be at about 30% by the election next year. andrew little on the other hand will at around 2%.

        • swordfish 5.1.3.5

          “the outgoing PM is downward trending in the polls, and he is very uncomfortable about it. Should have seen him on TVNZ this morning”

          Yeah, I had to laugh at John’s relatively cynical attempt to discredit the Colmar Brunton’s Preferred PM figures by feigning bewilderment at the fact that the collective ratings for the 3 main leaders added up to only 52%.

          Key:

          My main point was really going to be the … (slight stutter / pause) … that counts for 52%. So I don’t know what happens – in your poll – what happens to the other 48% (his voice here characteristically rises at end of sentence – teenage New Zealander-style – looking for some sort of tacit endorsement from the interviewer). Coz, if you add up – you had all the leaders going down but the whole 3 of us added up to 52%. I don’t know where the other 48% is but (pauses and throws his arms up in the air to suggest genuine, innocent bewilderment at what he hints is dubious methodology, albeit betrayed by a somewhat guilty / embarrassed / sheepish-looking smile that suggests he’s fully aware that Tame knows he’s talking bollocks) … I don’t know, you’d have to ask your Pollsters but

          As Jonathan Wedgewood Key knows full well, the Colmar Brunton’s – like the Reid Research Polls – include the Don’t knows and None-of-the-Aboves in their Preferred PM figures. Always have.

          Arguably, a far more accurate measure of Leader popularity than the (now defunct) Herald-Digi – which excluded the Don’t knows and hence massively exaggerated Key’s (and everyone else’s) popularity, generating headlines and misleading voters into believing that two-thirds or more of the public wanted Key as PM.

          Most of the “missing” 48% whose personal welfare John agonized over in the interview are accounted for by:

          9% preferring various other minor leaders / politicians as PM.

          36% choosing Don’t know or None.

    • Scott 5.2

      Yes. I think the only inference is that if he doesn’t then his UMR polling is even worse.

    • YNWA 5.3

      And National don’t pay for the rest? hahahah

  6. Nick 6

    Isnt the North Pole and South Pole the only ones that really matter ?

  7. save nz 7

    Danish supermarket selling expired food opens second branch
    Wefood in Copenhagen has proved a huge success as food waste becomes hot topic worldwide

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/27/food-waste-denmark-buy-expired-produce-copenhagen-wefood

    • mauī 7.1

      Good topic savenz. Does anyone know if its illegal to skip dive in supermarket bins here? ive seen a couple of tv shows recently that had people skip diving outside supermarkets in aussie and the uk, seemed legal there.

      • save nz 7.1.1

        I’d like to see supermarkets be forced to give their best before food to food banks to be given for free to anyone who needs food. It is a crime that people may be hungry in this country when we are a food producer and apparently Kiwis are the fourth richest country per capita in the world. Not to mention the problems when the food is going into land fill!

        • mauī 7.1.1.1

          Yeah fully agree with you there. We might need (god forbid!) a socialist in charge to get some common sense happening though.

          The Hugh’s War on Waste doco opened my eyes to food wastage. It focused a lot on produce not meeting cosmetic standards and then being thrown away… We need a better model.

  8. Rosemary McDonald 8

    Good people doing good work. Flaxmere residents pulling the community out of its nosedive.

    “It’s 7.30am in the Hastings suburb of Flaxmere. Half a dozen children, some as young as 5, are already at Kimi Ora Community School tucking into spaghetti on toast.

    Over the next half-hour, other hungry mouths arrive. No parents come with them.

    “We might see five parents a day who walk their kids to school. Our kids walk to school and walk home by themselves,” says principal Matt O’Dowda.

    White-bearded caretaker Wayne Reading, who serves the breakfast every school day, usually feeds about 25 of the school’s 130 pupils – or 70 on Fridays, when he serves a full cooked breakfast.

    At lunchtimes almost all students cram into the dining room for $1 lunches prepared by a mum and her partner.”

    “It’s not the black eyes, it’s more children that have had a lack of sleep because there’s been a party going on at home. Or not being picked up on time, or not being brought to school.”

    O’Dowda says the partying and overcrowding put children at risk.

    “We have just done a pubertal change unit with the seniors [Years 6-8, aged about 10-12],” he says.

    “For our girls, their major concern was how do you protect yourself from men, because they know there are parties and there’s lots of people around. So we have now got a two-day self-defence programme coming in this term just for our Year 6-8 girls.”

    Dr Sandra Jessop, a general practitioner in Flaxmere since 1988, cries when she speaks of women who disclose childhood abuse when she asks gently about injuries she can see when she does cervical smears.

    “Sometimes you get depression in the mums when their girls start to go through puberty, because of what happened to them,” she says.””

    Excellent piece of writing from veteran ‘tell it like it is’ journalist Simon Collins.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11737537

  9. Draco T Bastard 9

    A year of living shamefully: New Zealand’s dirty secrets

    If New Zealand’s inherent dottiness and glaring contradictions were ever a local secret, this year they have been paraded for all the world to see.

    We often made the overseas news – whether it was because of the poor living in cars and garages in a supposedly egalitarian society, our heavily polluted rivers (and drinking water) in a land we tout as being environmentally 100% Pure, or our high domestic violence rates in a country we like to think of as family friendly.

    There were the Panama Papers, reported extensively around the world, that suggested we are a tax haven – an unfortunate impression that is at odds with our longstanding reputation for honesty, transparency and incorruptibility. John Key firmly rejected the “tax haven” tag but we were exposed in the Australian Financial Review, for one, as having been involved in questionable transactions – including setting up accounts for Maltese politicians that some of the world’s dodgiest banks (in Miami, the Caribbean and Panama) wouldn’t touch because of strict disclosure laws for money-laundering politicians.

    We’ve got to own up to our faults and change them. This will not happen with the present corrupt government because these faults suit them and their backers as it makes them richer.

  10. The Chairman 10

    The Government has been warned not to cave in and make it easier for Chinese investors to buy strategically important land and businesses just to secure better access to China’s market.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/201825535/govt-warned-not-to-give-up-too-much-in-china-fta-upgrade-talks

    • save nz 10.1

      In a country where homelessness is rising maybe it is time we think that “strategically” means “all land” not being sold offshore. Land should be for citizens only. And being a citizen of NZ should also be a lot harder to achieve – not just a left over choice for those that can’t get into Canada or OZ.

  11. Morrissey 11

    The Qatari dictatorship’s official TV station does not
    miss a chance to ridicule and demean the late Fidel Castro

    Al Jazeera 10 a.m. News, Monday 28 November 2016

    Al Jazeera is again featuring ugly demonstrations of gloating by the extreme right fringe of the Cuban-American community after the death of Fidel Castro. Interestingly, Al Jazeera three years ago did not feature any of the similar gloating that occurred in some of the similarly rabid pockets of South Africa when Castro’s great friend and supporter Nelson Mandela died.

    Yet even the most grievous propaganda channel will sometimes, perhaps accidentally, provide access to more balanced, representative views. This morning that balanced representation came in the form of 22 year old Elian Gonzalez. In 1999, five-year-old Elian Gonzalez was kidnapped by some of these so-called “exile” fanatics. After a momentous legal battle, he was eventually returned to his father in Cuba. Today Elian Gonzalez, now 22 years old, appeared on Al Jazeera, praising the late Cuban leader.

    This moment of sanity was soon relegated, however. To “balance” the testimony of Elian Gonzalez, the host interviewed one Peter Hakim, who rejoices in the splendid title of “president emeritus and senior fellow” of the Inter-American Dialogue. For a couple of minutes, Hakim released, pompously and slowly, a stream of anti-Castro propaganda, and absurdly lied that Castro had been opposed to the democratic developments in Latin America. To hear Peter Hakim telling this lie was especially galling, in view of the fact that in 1994, Hakim stated with equal pomposity, that the U.S. should not be concerned with either human rights or democracy in Haiti, and in fact the democratically elected President Aristide should be deposed, in the usual brutal manner.

    https://chomsky.info/199408__/

  12. Colonial Viper 12

    RT: Chris Hedges ‘On Contact’ Standing Rock protest special

    Documentary special by Chris Hedges, veteran war correspondent, as part of his ‘On Contact’ series on RT.

    He follows the Water Protectors standing in the way of the Dakota Access Pipeline.

    Warning this is Chris Hedges on RT – ‘fake news ‘ – the news and the viewpoints that the establishment media doesn’t want you to know and will not cover themselves.

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    2 weeks ago
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