Roy Morgan has Winston on 5%

Written By: - Date published: 12:52 pm, September 19th, 2008 - 93 comments
Categories: election 2008, nz first, polls - Tags: ,

If the latest Roy Morgan poll is to be believed, John Key’s big gamble of ruling Winston Peters out of any future coalition may well turn out to be one of the stupidest plays in New Zealand’s political history.

According to the poll, NZ First has increased its hypothetical share of the vote to 5%, and while Labour are down and National are up it’s far less of a swing than expected given the recent negative media coverage over Owen Glenn and the Privileges Committee.

For Labour, Winston’s presence provides an insurance plan. If he gets in there’s another three years of mild centre-left government; if he doesn’t then a genuine Left government incorporating the Greens and the Maori Party is that much easier to form.

For National, on the other hand, a NZ First presence in the next parliament now almost certainly means three more years in the wilderness. In one reckless spin of the dice, John Key may well have handed Labour its historic fourth term and assured the end of his own political career.

93 comments on “Roy Morgan has Winston on 5% ”

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  1. Andrew Bannister 1
    19 September 2008 at 12:55 pm

    Although if Key is going to be consistent, it should be assumed he will change his mind. (capcha – “or, liberte”)

  2. Go The Right 2
    19 September 2008 at 12:56 pm

    Good to see the Winston vote going from Labour to Winston and National gaining. When it comes to the polling day after all the enquiries have come out with the Facts John Keys decision will be seen as Masterful.
    Looks definitely like a Centre Right Government with the Maori Party supporting on Confidence because we all know they will get more than 4 seats.

    They arent to keen on Labour at the moment to which is good for the Country.

  3. Matthew Pilott 3
    19 September 2008 at 1:02 pm

    Rob, what concessions would you expect from Key for the MPs support? Given your talk about a lesbian government, I’d assume you aren’t be too fond of darkies either. All that bigotry generally goes hand in hand. At what point would you say Key is giving too much to those brown folk, and that they should be grateful for what they’ve got?

  4. Tim Ellis 4
    19 September 2008 at 1:09 pm

    That is an interesting result, Tane. It does seem to be out of step with the NZ First trend of other polls recently. In the meantime I wouldn’t put too much credence in it, but it will be very interesting to see if the next few polls confirm the trend or if it’s just a bit of noise.

  5. insider 5
    19 September 2008 at 1:10 pm

    So a vote for winston is a vote for labour…Labour First in all senses. Glad to see you guys have no morals about who you get into bed with.

  6. Brett Dale 6
    19 September 2008 at 1:20 pm

    Well done to John Key for having integrity and not being that power hungry that he has to give up his morals. In saying that well done to Winston, say what you like about him, but he always survives.

  7. Tane 7
    19 September 2008 at 1:22 pm

    Tim, you’re right. The next few polls will be interesting to watch.

    The Roy Morgan result does seem to resonate with what I’m hearing though. A few people have even told me they’re considering voting for Winston for the first time because of their objection to the way the media has covered it.

  8. higherstandard 8
    19 September 2008 at 1:23 pm

    Tane

    Hugging Winston to your breast…… hang your head in shame.

  9. r0b 9
    19 September 2008 at 1:23 pm

    I would like to see Winston and NZF gone from parliament.

    But if he gets re-elected by 5% of the population then he has a mandate (in spite of his racism and his apparent funding skulduggery). I don’t like it, but democracy means putting up with things you don’t like – and I can’t see either Nat or Labour ruling out dealing with him.

    I don’t think this 5% is a blip, I think it’s the combined effects of “no such thing as bad publicity” and “a plague on both your houses”. I think all the attacks on Winston have achieved is to increase that chances that he’ll be back. Sigh.

  10. Rakaia George 10
    19 September 2008 at 1:24 pm

    Scroll down to the bottom of that Roy Morgan link and have a look at what’s happened to the Government confidence rating…

    Captcha: Study place. Wow, maybe there’s something to this captcha business after all.

  11. Billy 11
    19 September 2008 at 1:26 pm

    Farrar reckons Roy Morgan always over-estimates Winsome’s support.

  12. Billy 12
    19 September 2008 at 1:28 pm

    I am sorry. It seems I am stupid. I have been unable to properly to link for about two weeks now:

    http://curiablog.wordpress.com/2008/09/19/polling-on-new-zealand-first/

  13. Tane 13
    19 September 2008 at 1:29 pm

    Tane

    Hugging Winston to your breast…… hang your head in shame.

    Um, wtf? The purpose was analyis of the poll, not my preferences, but I thought it was implicit in my post that I’d prefer for Winston to not make it and instead have some form of Labour/Maori/Green coalition.

    I wasn’t going to patronise you by spelling it out, but perhaps in future I should just to be on the safe side.

  14. Steve Pierson 14
    19 September 2008 at 1:29 pm

    Farrar reckons a lot of things. he reckoned english had the numbers, but then key switched his vote to brash.

    hs. tane isn’t endorsing peters he’s just talking about the ramificaions of this pol.

    i think peters will be out though, hopefully there won’t be too much wasted vote, which benefits National.

  15. r0b 15
    19 September 2008 at 1:36 pm

    I am sorry. It seems I am stupid. I have been unable to properly to link for about two weeks now

    Billy – your broken links are all broken for the same reason – and extra ‘ character at the end. Try again, check for that extra ‘ and delete it…

  16. Billy 16
    19 September 2008 at 1:38 pm

    Thank you, r0b.

  18. Wondering 18
    19 September 2008 at 1:47 pm

    [Tane: You’re banned for being a troll and breaching policy. I had a look through your previous comments and they’re all abusive. You’ve never said anything constructive and are therefore of no value to this site. That makes it a life ban.]

  19. Daveski 19
    19 September 2008 at 1:50 pm

    If this is the case, the Maori party become the King (or Queen) makers.

    I truly hope Winston is gone … not just so we get another Racing Minister who is not so self serving!

  20. Tim Ellis 20
    19 September 2008 at 1:55 pm

    I am puzzled as to why the reported support for minor parties is so volatile. The poll of polls data from 08wire is excellent at giving what are probably quite accurate trends for all parties, including minor ones. It is true that Roy Morgan’s reporting of NZ First vote does seem to be more volatile than other polls.

    Tane, I wonder how self-selecting the sample of people saying they are planning to vote for Winston is. I wonder how many Labour voters would jump in to support him if, for example, Helen Clark moved to sack him following a condemning privileges committee report?

    The next few polls will tell. Helen Clark gets daily polling results from UMR, and no doubt knows where the support is from much more timely and in-depth sources than are available publicly. Likewise John Key for National.

  21. Scribe 21
    19 September 2008 at 1:59 pm

    This poll was conducted from Sept 1-14. Owen Glenn’s damning evidence before the privileges committee was on September 9. Would be interesting to know what the results were for people polled on Sept 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14.

    If Key, as some predict, reneges on his pledge about NZ First/Winston and forming a government, he will lose my respect (not that he’d care about little ol’ me)

  23. Crank 23
    19 September 2008 at 2:03 pm

    “John Key’s big gamble of ruling Winston Peters out of any future coalition may well turn out to be one of the stupidest plays in New Zealand’s political history.”

    It depends what price you put on power.

    If bending over for corruption is not too large a price then perhaps he may be stupid.

  24. higherstandard 24
    19 September 2008 at 2:04 pm

    Scribe Ditto – although I have vanishingly small respect for most politicians.

  25. randal 25
    19 September 2008 at 2:04 pm

    Tane…good job. its obvious that the right dont tolerate anyone who opposes their views on their blogs but the left is much more tolerant but all the right wing trolls can do is pile on the abuse. I think that says something about their mindset and their attitude to life in general. Frightened people whose only response to the world is bullying and abuse.

  26. higherstandard 26
    19 September 2008 at 2:05 pm

    Good Lord and here’s me thinking Randal was of the “left” persuasion.

  27. Tane 27
    19 September 2008 at 2:06 pm

    Don’t kid yourself that John ruled out Winston over principle. It was a calculated gamble that he could bring down Winston and tar Labour with him in the process.

  28. Crank 28
    19 September 2008 at 2:12 pm

    Tane,

    The only reason Labour get tarred is because they are supporting a man who is quite obviously a xenophobic liar.

    If you’re not againt that you’re for it.

  29. Bryan Spondre 29
    19 September 2008 at 2:15 pm

    “Given your talk about a lesbian government, I’d assume you aren’t be too fond of darkies either.”

    A little simplistic perhaps ? Surely traditional Maori culture isn’t particularly feminist friendly so someone who might be “pro-darkie” might be anti-feminist ?

  30. higherstandard 30
    19 September 2008 at 2:16 pm

    Agreed Tane but regardless to get into bed with him after the election would be an untenable position for Key and National.

    Crank, Winston is not xenophobic he’s merely a political manipulator of the most odious kind.

  31. Scribe 31
    19 September 2008 at 2:19 pm

    Tane,

    Don’t kid yourself that Helen is keeping Winston over principle. It was a calculated gamble that she could keep Winston on side and try to cling to power, no matter the moral bankruptcy.

  32. BeShakey 32
    19 September 2008 at 2:19 pm

    “…be interesting to know what the results were for people polled on Sept 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14.”

    The numbers would be too small to make any reasonable conclusions. You’ll have to wait for the next series of polls.

    Personally, I’d like to see WP/NZF gone. But if the varied inquiries don’t remove him, and the people vote him back, I struggle to see a reason to remove him, even though I don’t like him, and disagree with many of his headline policies.

  33. Bryan Spondre 33
    19 September 2008 at 2:24 pm

    “Don’t kid yourself that John ruled out Winston over principle.”

    [raises eyebrows] Really ? You are forgetting that Helen/Michael/Winston are from a very different generation than Key. The former are heading into retirement while John Key has plenty of time on his side.

    The next three years are going to be a nightmare economically; if Labour wins not only will they have to take drastic (and painful) action to fix the problems, they will get the (deserved) blame for causing them. Key could wait three years, take power, be a four term prime minister and still be younger than Cullen is now. He would end up with a place in history to go alongside his $50 million.

  34. Tane 34
    19 September 2008 at 2:25 pm

    Hs, agreed.

    Scribe, the final confidence vote has passed, as has the ETS. There’s no reason to hold onto him for power’s sake. Though I suspect Clark sees the long-term benefits of maintaining cordial relations with someone whose numbers she might need to form a government after the election.

    Crank, Winston was a xenophobe and a liar back in 2005. It didn’t stop National from getting down on their hands and knees and begging him to give them the numbers they needed to form a government. Politics is the art of the possible, and sometimes to make things possible you need to work with people you don’t particularly like. You can cast a moral judgement over that if you like, but all you’re doing is showing your naivety.

  35. George Darroch 35
    19 September 2008 at 2:26 pm

    I wish Helen Clark would get rid of Peters – for Labour’s sake. I reckon that this business has cost Labour at least a couple of percent. Why we have this corrosive, poisonous, cancerous politician shackled to our Government only Helen Clark knows.

    For the fourth election in a row, Labour’s Old Guard are keeping the Greens from Government. Maybe they’ll get in by 2014?

    (assuming that National doesn’t act rashly, and Labour takes at least 3 years to rebuild into a credible looking outfit – Goff, Cunliffe etc are qualified to run a Government, but don’t have the gravitas yet.)

  36. Pascal's bookie 36
    19 September 2008 at 2:26 pm

    “Winston is not xenophobic he’s merely a political manipulator of the most odious kind.”

    Agreed. Same with Brash on the IWI/KIWI, mainstream, and the spitting in the streets stuff…

  37. gobsmacked 37
    19 September 2008 at 2:27 pm

    As ever with polls, individual results may be questionable, but the overall trend is significant.

    Earlier in the year Labour’s poll rating was heading for 30% or below. Words like “freefall” and “meltdown” were used, mostly by predictable axe-grinders, but the numbers certainly looked bad. In the occasional poll where Labour picked up, often it was the Greens that suffered.

    But now there is a clear trend that shows both Labour’s core vote holding solid in the mid-30’s, and the Greens over the 5% threshold. Of course 35 + 5 is not going to be enough on election day, but for both parties it’s a good base for a campaign contest. There’s not much talk of a “landslide” these days.

    If the Winston-obsessed commentators pay less attention to blog babble (highly unrepresentative of real public opinion) and more to the other 99.9% of voters, they might ponder the fact that Rodney Hide is getting more positive publicity than he’s ever had before … and ACT’s poll ratings barely move.

    And as a left voter, I’d be quite happy to see National do a deal with the Maori Party. I can only assume that the National supporters who favour this option are either ashamed of Orewa (unlikely, but good on ya) or they are just determined not to find out what the Maori Party actually want (hint: it’s not a pat on the head).

    Tories for Tino Rangatiratanga! This I gotta see …

  38. Crank 38
    19 September 2008 at 2:27 pm

    If the enquiries don’t get him it will be because of technicalities. It is obvious that he is a cheating, lying hypocrate and I am sure that 5% backing of the senile and piss soaked does not excuse that.

  39. Tane 39
    19 September 2008 at 2:27 pm

    Bryan, if Key loses this election English will roll him. Even if he wins he’s on shaky ground. The wheels are already in motion.

  40. George Darroch 40
    19 September 2008 at 2:30 pm

    “Crank, Winston was a xenophobe and a liar back in 2005. It didn’t stop National from getting down on their hands and knees and begging him to give them the numbers they needed to form a government.”

    And neither did it stop Labour.

    (and before I have to correct someone yet again – Labour /did/ have a choice of support arrangements)

  41. Tane 41
    19 September 2008 at 2:37 pm

    George, I wish you’d give me the benefit of the doubt sometimes. I was devastated when I heard Labour had forsaken the Greens for UF and NZF. I voted Green, ffs.

    My point is sometimes you have to work with people you don’t like in order to get your policy agenda through, and that people who deny this are being naive in the extreme.

  42. Crank 42
    19 September 2008 at 2:37 pm

    “Bryan, if Key loses this election English will roll him. Even if he wins he’s on shaky ground. The wheels are already in motion.”

    Tane, You are incredibly plugged in to the “supposed” tory knife sharpeners for a leftie. And to think they trusted you with that information.

  43. Tane 43
    19 September 2008 at 2:39 pm

    I have my sources Crank. They vary in their reliability and their closeness to the action, but they’re all saying the same thing.

  44. Bryan Spondre 44
    19 September 2008 at 2:40 pm

    Tane: “Crank, Winston was a xenophobe and a liar back in 2005.”

    Yes, and in 1995 and in 1985, but now he has lied to the Prime Minister, to Parliament and is a being investigated by the police and the SFO. He is damaged goods.

  45. Bryan Spondre 45
    19 September 2008 at 2:42 pm

    Tane: surely it is better to be the Deputy PM & Finance Minister than Leader of the Opposition ?

  46. Aj 46
    19 September 2008 at 2:43 pm

    If Key’s word stands between the Nats and being government then Key will be voted out of leadership quicker than you can say ‘user charges’

  47. r0b 47
    19 September 2008 at 2:44 pm

    I’ll make you a bet Bryan. If the Nats need Winston to form the next government they’ll be in bed with him before you can turn down the sheets. $50 to the charity of choice says the Nats will not pass up the chance to rule if they have to work with Winston to get it. Deal?

  48. Brett Dale 48
    19 September 2008 at 2:44 pm

    Tane:

    Key wont lose the election, so there will be no rolling of anybody, except Helen. I’m sure Labour will then make the mistake of going further to the left.

  49. monkey-boy 49
    19 September 2008 at 2:47 pm

    What a wonderful thing it would be foir the country if Winston Peters were once again, be the pivot upon which our who government rests.

  50. Tane 50
    19 September 2008 at 2:49 pm

    Tane: surely it is better to be the Deputy PM & Finance Minister than Leader of the Opposition ?

    I’m confused. I take it you’re referring to English?

  51. Bryan Spondre 51
    19 September 2008 at 2:49 pm

    rOb: I already have $20 on Labour to WIN the election ( showing my disrespect for the wisdom of the NZ electorate).

  52. Chris 52
    19 September 2008 at 2:52 pm

    I’ve just finished watching a talk by winston at otago. My god that man talks some crap! No way I would ever vote for him, his ideas on economics are way out of line. He is the ultimate sales person though. If someone asks him for something he’ll say he can deliver. He even proposed regulating credit card interest rates, as if NZ isn’t getting squeezed enough for credit!

  53. r0b 53
    19 September 2008 at 2:58 pm

    I’ve just finished watching a talk by winston at otago

    Otago uni? I’m interested – what sort of reception did W get from the audience (students?)?

  54. John Dalley 54
    19 September 2008 at 3:10 pm

    Here is a prediction for the election.
    Natioanl will get the most votes but not sufficient to govern on their own.
    John Key will stick to his guns (Yeh Right) and not do a deal with NZ First who will hold the balance of power.
    The day after John Key refuses to work with Winnie he is rolled by Bill English

  55. Daveski 55
    19 September 2008 at 3:14 pm

    Gobsmacked – couldn’t agree more.

    I think it would be good to drag some of the elements of the Nats into the 20th century (not a typo!).

    There is a potential synergy – and I’m not extracted the urine either. The emerging “brown” economy is often overlooked and the business focus of Nat is a natural partner for the Maori party.

    That will require a significant shift in perceptions from both sides of the table but it could be done.

    Conversely, the Labour/left fixation on benefits and handouts risks looking paternalistic at best.

    Further, Labour has taken the Maori vote for granted and while the Nats didn’t do themselves any favour with iwi/kiwi, neither did Labour with their flip flop on the foreshore.

  56. George Darroch 56
    19 September 2008 at 3:16 pm

    Tane (reply to upthread). I’m not doubting you or your sincerity. I just hate the constant attacks on National for things that Labour are also guilty of (although not always to the same degree)

    I understand your point. But I sincerely think that Dunne/Peters was detrimental to their policy agenda (although Green/Maori would have had other drawbacks, and other policy conflicts), and is looking like it might continue to hamper their policy agenda in 08-11.

    If it was the past, or about to become the past I could breathe a sigh of relief and set it aside. But by holding on to this lying, game playing, hate stirring rodent, Helen Clark is dragging him in to my future. And that is bound to make me upset.

  57. Positive and ambitious 57
    19 September 2008 at 3:27 pm

    I’ve never voted NZ First, but I’m seriously considering it now as it looks like a vote for Winston is a sure fire way to make sure Key never gets to write the PM line in his CV. This poll shows I’m not alone. Brilliant work Mr. Key!

  58. Chris 58
    19 September 2008 at 3:38 pm

    Not bad, but not exactly enthusiastic either. But he got an audience which is enough, and I’m sure some people bought some of the crap he was spouting, but my god it was too much for me!

    He is the consummate politican i guess…

  59. Pat 59
    19 September 2008 at 3:40 pm

    I think it is clear that Helen Clark has no intention to sack Winston before the election. Easy to sack him afterwards if NZF has given you the crucial numbers. After all, he will only be a list MP.

    Look out Chris Hipkins – you are going to get the big “step aside” order so that Ron Mark has a clear shot at Rimutaka.

  60. gobsmacked 60
    19 September 2008 at 4:08 pm

    Pat

    That Ron Mark story is false. But I’m sure you already know that.

    On the other hand, Rodney Hide’s worries in Epsom are real.

  61. Killinginthenameof 61
    19 September 2008 at 4:56 pm

    Bryan Spondre “The next three years are going to be a nightmare economically; if Labour wins not only will they have to take drastic (and painful) action to fix the problems, they will get the (deserved) blame for causing them.”

    Excuse me?

    The problem has been caused by National party style deregulation in America, and the World Bank has said New Zealand is well placed economically to ride out the storm.

    Are you lying or just wrong? (either way a correction is probably in order)

  62. Monty 62
    19 September 2008 at 5:17 pm

    In all other polls the self-serving corrupt Prick that we all Know as Winnie First is polling between 1.6% and 2.5%. No one realistically believes that he will be back after the election. in 1999 when the scandal was underpants 2.5 years before the election he only got back in by 64 votes and 4.6%. This corruption affects him (and Clark ) directly, and is right before the elction. I do hope that he again gets 4.6% – all off Labour’s support base

    But I do also think at 96% of voting new Zealanders are not so bloody stupid to return this parasite back to Parliament. (I do wonder about the other 4% who will try and retunr him.

    So the impact – well National will pick up 50% of winnie wasted voted, add in Act on 3% and Prissy Peter as minister of Racing and there National has over 50%. Negotiate witht he Maori Party who gets on very well with John Key and Labour are going to earn a well deseerved and extremely long rest in the opposition benches.

  63. ghostwhowalks 63
    19 September 2008 at 5:44 pm

    Spondre forgets Key style borrowing for ‘infrastructure’ was tried in Iceland over the last 8 years.
    Its been a disaster, official RB interest rates start at 15%. if it wasnt for some major scandanavian banks helping out it would have been much much worse.
    Its Key wjo will wreck the economy with his dated ideas, in the same way Muldoon did with his 40s and 50s ideas carried over into the 80s.
    The trouble with national is that they think they know all about the economy so wont listen to competent advice. And with a small kitchen cabinet style of policy making from Key and his cohorts it will be Muldoonism without the self satisfied smirk

  64. gobsmacked 64
    19 September 2008 at 5:46 pm

    Monty

    Out of interest, as a National voter, which Maori Party policies would you be prepared to see John Key accept as the price of a deal? Boosting “race-based funding” is a given (sorry Don), as is compulsory Te Reo. What else?

    I’m afraid “gets on well” won’t do it. Pop over to their website sometime. How many Nats admire Cuba?

  65. lprent 65
    19 September 2008 at 7:12 pm

    I’m with rOb’s comment..

    But if he gets re-elected by 5% of the population then he has a mandate (in spite of his racism and his apparent funding skulduggery). I don’t like it, but democracy means putting up with things you don’t like – and I can’t see either Nat or Labour ruling out dealing with him.

    Essentially the electorate votes the parliamentarians, not the politicians. If some of them are silly enough to vote NZF into parliament, then that is what the politicians have to deal with.

    Unfortunately that is what I think is likely to happen. This type of concerted attack is exactly what NZF’s supporters thrive on. This current kerfuffle is probably going to make sure that Winston & NZF get enough votes. If that happens and no coalition can get in without support from NZF, what do you expect the politicians to do – keep having elections?

    Key’s political naivety and lack of experience is showing…

  66. Macro 66
    19 September 2008 at 7:51 pm

    “Farrar reckons Roy Morgan always over-estimates Winsome’s support.”

    I’ve got some bad news for DPF as well. These polls always over estimate the vote for the right as well! The Morgan poll was the most accurate in the 2005 election missing the final out come by about 2% points to the right. As it was in the previous one as well. The fact is these are phone based and despite the pollsters best efforts to avoid the resulting bias, lots of voters now are not reachable by land line. Who has land lines? Well you all know the answer.

    There is no doubt that for a lot of people who have longer political memories than so called “investigative journalists” of todays media, that their sympathies towards Winston Peters have been raised by the recent scrum. They appreciate the Gold Card, the $6 doctors fee for their young grandchildren, the possibility of a universal student allowance for their children and grandchildren, etc. He has done a competent job as Foreign Minister. I was rather apprehensive when he took up the reins from one of the most able Foreign Affairs Ministers we have ever had in recent times Phil Goff. He has been in the past an extremely capable Minister or Maori Affairs (As a National MP) and many of the policies he initiated are still in place today. Those who take more than an interest in the passing sound bite of political comment today appreciate that Winston Peters has done a lot for the people of NZ. Far more than John Keys or Rodney Hide.

    Having said that I shall not be voting for NZ First. I never have, and I doubt that I ever will – but I appreciate where those who do are coming from.

  67. Pascal's bookie 67
    19 September 2008 at 8:20 pm

    Essentially the electorate votes the parliamentarians, not the politicians. If some of them are silly enough to vote NZF into parliament, then that is what the politicians have to deal with.

    Exactly. And after that is where it starts to get interesting.

    Under MMP we get party votes. IMO this is good thing over and beyond the proportionality issue, in that it brings the parties explicitly inside the system. Under FPP, in theory, parties needn’t exist, every MP was there to represent an electorate. In practice of course party machines take over and ranking MP’s get safe seats etc and gerrymandering becomes the order of the day. Voters end up voting for parties rather than candidates, with their intentions having effect only if they are in a marginal seat. It was a pig of a system.

    Under MMP however, with the parties being legitimised by the voting process each party has their own constituency separate from the geographical electorates. Each party has a duty to that party vote constituency to try and get as much of their policy through as they can. If National gets more votes than Labour, and the electorate has given WP the balance of power, then in this view, Key would normally have a duty to National party voters to make a deal if one is the offing.

    He’s stuffed that up though by explicitly ruling such a deal out, and gaining the party votes of those who, for their own good reasons, don’t like WP and will vote to keep him out of government. This comes to the cost of those National Party voters who care more about policy differences and want Labour out for reasons that go beyond personalities.

    It also creates a conflict between those voters that are voting National to keep Winnie out, and those that are voting National to get rid of Helen. There will be a lot of overlap there, but there are many Nat voters whose dislike of Clark exceeds their dislike of the socially conservative Peters. He will have to slap them in the face and let Labour back in, or most likely, eat crow, make the deal with WP and have all his rhetoric thrown in his face from day one on the govt benches. There will not be a media honeymoon.

    He’s creating quite a pickle for himself if Winnie gets back in.

    But all that be speculatin’ an’ dreams. The voting bit happens first, and we’re as likely to end up with an ‘LPG plus Maori party on c&f’.

    With Winston Key Rodney and Dunne crying over might’ve beens.

  68. Jum 68
    19 September 2008 at 11:23 pm

    – Labour Supporters –

    Walking and Cycling Across Auckland’s Waitemata Harbour Bridge
    (You can do these things over the Manukau!)

    The Get Across Campaign ( http://www.getacross.org.nz ) is organising a rally at 2.00p.m. Sunday 21st September under the Auckland City end of the bridge.

    All Labour people have a chance to show your support for the PM and Labour by turning up. Enjoy.

  69. ak 69
    19 September 2008 at 11:54 pm

    Golly….how about them ole Warriors eh? Looks like the boys from the backstreets might be ready for their time in the sun….nice to see Hels there, a good omen and so very fitting as to how things are panning out politically….Winnie up to his well-deserved 5% and the slippery serpent still pissing in the wind, ah happy days, have a good weekend youngsters, God bless you all and strengthen your arms.

  70. John 70
    19 September 2008 at 11:56 pm

    I will put $5 on Helen Clark sacking Winston in the next week.
    Helen will come out most indignant over the deceit from her Minister and will try and redeem her poor judgement by claiming fair process
    any takers?

    No matter what she attempts, the Clark/Peters axis will stick

  71. John 71
    20 September 2008 at 12:04 am

    Hey Jum. Good to see you’re back online.

    Have you had any more thoughts about your claiming the Ford advertisement for the Ute was set up by the Business Roundtable because the man in the ad says “Should have got a blue one’?

    Yunno, aluminium foil is expensive at the moment but your make shift hats, to ward off the black helicopters should be tax deductible

  72. T-Rex 72
    20 September 2008 at 12:13 am

    Pre-emptive rebuttal to any accusations of off-topic thread-jack: It’s not off topic, it’s about what motivates people in voting 🙂

    Interesting article here (published in science) about the use of fear in promoting conservative policy options. Painfully obvious why National generally push such a negative line, but not nearly so bad as the situation in the US.

  73. Jared 73
    20 September 2008 at 1:24 am

    Thats strange Tane, lets just say I have my sources as well, and English has not a chance. Most in the party do not trust English’s leadership style after his failed attempt in 2002.

  74. Jared 74
    20 September 2008 at 1:28 am

    “Spondre forgets Key style borrowing for ‘infrastructure’ was tried in Iceland over the last 8 years.
    Its been a disaster, official RB interest rates start at 15%. if it wasnt for some major scandanavian banks helping out it would have been much much worse.
    Its Key wjo will wreck the economy with his dated ideas, in the same way Muldoon did with his 40s and 50s ideas carried over into the 80s.
    The trouble with national is that they think they know all about the economy so wont listen to competent advice. And with a small kitchen cabinet style of policy making from Key and his cohorts it will be Muldoonism without the self satisfied smirk”

    What exactly have you been smoking? Comparing a country with a 1/10th the population and 1/10th the GDP and expecting similar economic conditions? If anything, Key will bring a fresh vision to government, one thats stagnant with career politicians looking out for their own pay check than the good of the country.

  75. DeeDub 75
    20 September 2008 at 6:40 am

    Bryan Spondre:

    “He would end up with a place in history to go alongside his $50 million.”

    Yep, it certainly does look like Key is just ticking another career box. He comes across as a vain, political dilettante just like Don Bash did. The electorate won’t be fooled, and once everyone sees him in…. ahem ‘action’ in a live debate they will realise what a shallow, feckless man he is. He’s obfuscating on thin ice methinks.

  76. Go The Right 76
    20 September 2008 at 8:34 am

    Another Beautiful sunny day another great Poll for the Nats. Showing the trend that Labour is dipping again and the Winston Saga is no doubt hurting them. Nats now 18 points ahead and everything is looking rosy or should I say a sea of Blue

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/4699070a6160.html

  77. Adolf Fiinkensein 77
    20 September 2008 at 9:01 am

    Oh well, that didn’t last long. Fairfax has him back where he belongs. 3% and out.

    [lprent: I let this comment by “Fair” (hardly) “Facts” (nope fails there as well) “Media” (I suspect you’re technically and mathematically illiterate as well) through so I could comment on its inherent stupidity below. ]

  78. randal 78
    20 September 2008 at 9:26 am

    the pussy cat press is rigging the polls again I see. I dont mind. the longer they delude themselves the bigger surprise they will get when the people speAK.

  79. coge 79
    20 September 2008 at 10:05 am

    Go the right, yes it is hardly unexpected that the long term established decline has continued for Labour. This trend suggests it will be worse by election day, 30 or 32 %. This is a govt that has lost it’s way & has disconnected itself from the thinking middle ground.

  80. Ianmac 80
    20 September 2008 at 10:14 am

    Hope this is still on the thread:
    Talking about credibility, think about how likely is this? Owen phones Peters.
    Peters asks for $100,000.
    Owen says OK. Send me Henry’s details.
    Minutes later details are sent.
    Are you able to believe that in the space of about 6 minutes a successful very wealthy business man would give this sort of money, UNLESS Owen is lying and the deal had already been struck! Might help open-minded folk to think about this.

  81. coge 81
    20 September 2008 at 10:37 am

    Ianmac, so you are suggesting that Labour further dump on their biggest individual donor? The disconnection continues.

  82. Ianmac 82
    20 September 2008 at 10:53 am

    Coge “Ianmac, so you are suggesting that Labour further dump on their biggest individual donor? The disconnection continues.”
    This has nothing to do with Labour dumping on anyone. It is a response to the probability expressed by some, that Peters/Henry lied based on the coincidence of phone/e-mail etc. Why not look at that “compelling evidence”?

  83. lprent 83
    20 September 2008 at 11:22 am

    I take very little credence of polls because they’re so inaccurate. But the trend series is interesting. It is a pity that some people commenting here have no real understanding. So I will spell it out for the illiterates.

    Here are the last three months of polls for Fairfax’s polls.

    RNZ report
    Curiablog Aug 2008
    Curiablog Sept 2008

    Here is the change series for some of the parties.

    Lab +5 +0 -1
    Nat -3 +3 -2
    NZF +1 -1 +0
    Grn -2 -1 +1

    Now does this tie up with either FFM’s comment or coge’s? Hardly!

    What it shows, as all of the polls are pretty much showing, is that the Winston Peters thing is making bugger all impact on the voters thinking. Bearing in mind the propounded error rate is about 3%, what this poll is showing is that nothing much is happening in political trends.

    I’d suggest that Fairfacts and coge really should take remedial training in how to read numbers.

    captcha: and checked
    how appropiate

  84. Brett Dale 84
    20 September 2008 at 11:41 am

    The latest Colmar poll has the election a landslide to national, there is no way Aunty Helen will pull back an 18 point margin.

    [lprent:: As an exercise go to curia blog and do the same change series. Want to take a bet that it shows the same trend – ie bugger all. After all of the huffing and puffing in the past weeks, it seems like the NZF donations aren’t making too much impact on any party. ]

  85. randal 85
    20 September 2008 at 11:50 am

    none of these polls are worth jack. it is already obvious by the way the meedia is treating the government that they are rigging the news and it seems the polls. National is going to get thefright of its life when they get their bums kicked on nov 8th.

  86. Draco T Bastard 86
    20 September 2008 at 1:03 pm

    none of these polls are worth jack.

    Don’t think I’d go quite that far…

    Ok, yes I would 🙂

  87. bill brown 87
    20 September 2008 at 1:51 pm

    Anyone notice that the “graph” on the front page of the Dom is not of the FF poll inside (which shows a drop to National) but of a “combined FF and Colmar” which doesn’t?

  88. Brett Dale 88
    20 September 2008 at 2:24 pm

    Randal: Please provide evidence that the media is rigging the news?

    The feel that I’m getting is the election wont be a landslide to National, but they will win.

  89. bill brown 89
    20 September 2008 at 4:09 pm

    Interesting article polling at Newswire (pointed out by Trotter)

    http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/09/newswire-2008-election-poll

  90. randal 90
    20 September 2008 at 4:25 pm

    brett dale…refer to fran mouldy every night on teevee 1 and look back over the past months front pages of the dompost to see how many times winnie was going to be sacked the next day but never was. hahahahahaha

  91. Ianmac 91
    20 September 2008 at 5:33 pm

    bill brown :”Interesting article polling at Newswire (pointed out by Trotter)
    http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/09/newswire-2008-election-poll”
    Fascinating stuff. Makes a mockery of polls but the deniers will no doubt say its only in Wellington and they…etc etc.

  92. Brett Dale 92
    20 September 2008 at 5:54 pm

    How is that evidence that the media is rigging the news?

    The media has always had a go at Winston no matter what party he supports, they just don’t like him.

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