You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal. Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system...
Nah, that's just a matter of me not having added him to the list of electorate-only candidates for Labour after ILG's resignation. I've confirmed he's running and done that for future list calcs, so he would technically bump Angela Roberts out of ...
A majority government where Labour invests in possibly needing the Greens again in the future looks very different to a minority government where Labour has no choice but to secure the Greens' support.
Last time he polled anywhere near this level he was out of Parliament that term, and he was polling 1-2% higher at that point.
The previous recent polls were strong enough that statistically they predicted a guaranteed Labour majority government if the election were held at that time period. I think the implication of what I'm saying is very clear there.
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 4:30 pm, September 2nd, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, MMP, national, nz first
Tags: coalition government, majority government, poll watch, pollwatch, roy morgan
Hi all, sorry about missing the post for the previous Roy Morgan poll- I've been having connection problems for a wee bit over a month that just hit at the wrong time for me to be able to write a post for that one, and my phone's internet wasn't stable …
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 7:30 am, July 31st, 2020 - 54 comments
Categories: act, david seymour, elections, greens, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls, Shane Jones, winston peters
Tags: approval polling, colmar brunton, electorates, polling, pollwatch, tvnz
Another day, another poll! So, we can see from the party vote trend here that CB is sharply disagreeing with the other two regular pollsters over what's going on in this election. My internet access is still spotty for another week, so apologies if there's…
Planet "I remember the history of Rogernomics and Ruthanasia and do not consider those governments 'stable.'" Then again for me stability is about stability for the country not for the government.
The "safety point" of return to minority government for me is if Labour falls below 48%, (see hypothetical here, where Labour loses 2% extra to the Greens and just barely needs them or New Zealand First) but at this stage I'm seriously considering that ...
Let's see... you're definitely right about polling over 50% consistently, so I retract and concede, (I've been monitoring closely since about 2014 so that's what I usually talk about when I do it from memory, whoops!) but I would say that Labour being this...
In 2017, there was some lower-accuracy electorate polling done with 400 respondents over a very long fieldwork period. It's what led Dunne to resign.
Those numbers don't even exceed the margins of error. How many occasions are you working on? do they overlap with events that are friendlier to the nats?
That's possible, but I expect a coalition with the Greens where Labour has its own majority looks very different to one where Labour's in a minority, and even that looks different to one where the Greens are the only game in town to get their legislation ...
The problem was that it was both, if you want to view those as different. (I think abuse of power is fundamentally undemocratic, myself, but you possibly mean "unproportional" when you say "undemocratic?") I also disagree with the idea that the Nats had a ...
MMP governments haven't always commanded a majority of votes either, (remember, the discarded party vote, electorate winners/minor parties, and overhang seats can all add up to a fair margin for a majority in parliament to be different than a majority of ...
I'm happy to get rid of New Zealand First, don't get me wrong. But I think the cancer of majority government and the cancer of New Zealand First are roughly equal enemies.
2002, National's worst-ever performance, about 4% worse than this, had them retain 21 electorates. The model is somewhat friendly to National in terms of electorate wins because it's an electorate shift model, which relies on 2017 data when they run a ...
Labour is IMO a well-performing government overall, but there's a big gap between its top-5 or so performing Ministers (Woods, Hipkins, Little, Parker, and Faafoi are who I'm thinking of- there might be more but they might be in positions where my distaste...
So, when Labour first polled above 50%, I made the same argument and assumed we were on track for an imminent narrowing below 50%. At a record 60% and with the trend strongly above 50%, this is actually something completely new and unprecedented in NZ ...
I really don't think that sort of comment is necessary. Hoskings is enough of a joke without resorting to that kind of more explicit anatomical humour.
Yes, Northland's call is probably a direct result of me picking the Strong Transfer model from the UK, which is adjusted to prevent undercounting Liberal Democrats, over a simpler tranfer model, as the Strong Transfer Model protects some of New Zealand ...
Even more "funny" is that even with National absolutely imploding ACT can't manage more than 6 MPs in polling. :S
I don't credit polls that aren't released publicly. Unless curia wants to release a selection of its most recent polls- let's say at least the most recent three- anything it chooses to release or leak is cherry-picking and not worth discussion.
I may have to do an article to remind people why Majority Governments Are Bad, Mmmmkay? We really shouldn't want one. The reason we switched to MMP was about the unchecked power in our system for majority governments, not just about giving smaller parties ...
The poll is on-trend and I don't particularly entertain the idea it's questionable, but there should be a CB coming out soon. (I don't usually know when it's coming, but I was polled for this one) This poll likely reflects a local low point for National ...
So, I've probably mentioned this on Twitter, (I post these there while I'm mid working on them and use them to gather any early corrections before beefing up the analysis to put them on TS) but while that's definitely how previous narrowings of the Labour ...
I don't think CB is "more favourable to National," and it honestly comes very close to RR. The one outlier you're looking at is when David Clark had to resign. From time to time they tend to overestimate whichever side is tending stronger at the time- we ...
I'd say Muller's initial change in tone helped National, but his personal popularity was terrible and he couldn't follow through with that change in tone. Collins isn't trying, which means although she's personally popular with her base, like Trump, she's ...
Also worth noting from the Green List, this would return the current caucus less Gareth Hughes, who is retiring, and without his expected successor, Teanau Tuiono.
Note on my electorate shift model: It's not intended to accurately call individual electorates. What it's supposed to do is get as close as possible to the right number of electorates, statistically, for each party, so it's possible that the electorate ...
Written By: Matthew Whitehead - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments
Categories: act, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls, Shane Jones
Tags: approval polling, electorates, list seats, newshub, northland, pollwatch, reid research
Newshub reported an all-time high for the Labour Party in their Reid Research poll today, hitting 60.9% of the party vote. National were already calling it a rogue poll before it's even announced. (it's technically possible, but if it is rogue, it's the …
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