Voter transitions 2011 2014

Written By: - Date published: 10:25 am, May 22nd, 2017 - 31 comments
Categories: election 2011, election 2014, science - Tags: , , , ,

A very useful visualisation from Peter Ellis at Peter’s Stats Stuff (go see the post for interactive version, plenty more, and also the provisos that relate to this data). One of the main takeaways is that only half of the “did not vote” block is persistent, the other half varied from election to election. That and the fact that more of the 2011 returning non voters more went to National in 2014 than to Labour. Lots to think about there.

31 comments on “Voter transitions 2011 2014”

  1. Ad 1

    To me the most intriguing illustration is NZFirst seems to draw small portions of support from all parties. Quite a sweet spot.

    • David Mac 1.1

      I wonder if that is due to our aging population of all political persuasions and appealing to 55+’s is the sweet spot.

  2. lprent 2

    Interesting. I’m really surprised about how non-voters move in and out of voting. But this is self-reported so there is going to be a high observer effect.

    That non-vote to vote National in 2014 is significiant. I’d take a bet that a lot of that was self-reporting again. The winner effect.

    There is one vote axis that isn’t there. Dead vote – but in a self-reported system that isn’t likely to be high.

    • David Mac 2.1

      I agree lprent. If guessing I would expect the ‘did not voters’ to remain relatively static. The ‘Ahhhh I just can’t be bothered’ crew. It appears this is not the case.

      It seems about half of them just need a strong enough reason to tootle down to the school and vote.

      • David Mac 2.1.1

        Creating and selling one compelling reason to vote will win the election.

        A commonly held view amongst those that could vote left is: “Ohhh you’ve misunderstood me, I’m all for helping people, it’s when the person receiving the help appears to be doing next to nothing to help themselves I lose heart.”

        Whether it’s true or not doesn’t matter. What matters is how do you win the vote of someone that thinks like that?

        I think we can all see the pointlessness of arguing whether an affordable house in Auckland costs $500k or $650k. Anyone that pulls on overalls to go to work is never going to have one at either price. The ticket price is not the emotional hot button. The way to get someone’s attention is with the entry price.

        “How much money do I need to get a place?”

        I think a policy that addresses the concerns of those that could vote left and in doing so attract broad appeal is something that has been proven to work in the past. Late 50’s early 60’s the housing boom was pushed along by the government assisting with financing people into houses.

        Something in the order of a $20k deposit saved, choose one off a neighbourhood plan.

        The spin-off benefits of people owning their own homes is huge. Crime plummets, health rises. General wellbeing blossoms.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1.1

          The spin-off benefits of people owning their own homes is huge.

          Is it owning the home or just having a home?

          Indications from people who are now being kicked out o state housing after being there for decades is that it’s just having a home that counts. In other words, Labour would probably do better just by making all those houses that they want to build as state houses rather than affordable houses that they’re looking at selling. It still gets people a lifetime home if done right.

          • David Mac 2.1.1.1.1

            Yep, I see your point Draco. I lived in social housing in Sweden for several years a while ago, fab….strangely most still pined for a place of their own.

            If you own your own bit, you’ve got skin in the game, you are society. It fosters pride.

            If drawing sketches of Narnia from the back of the wardrobe, yep, birthright houses for everyone. Cool, count me in.

            If winning in September is the goal, I’m not sure it’s a winning strategy.

            • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1.1.1.1

              If you own your own bit, you’ve got skin in the game, you are society. It fosters pride.

              If you’re part of society then you would still ‘own’ it and you’d have pride in your society.

              • McFlock

                Not so much – it reminds me a bit of the folks who would say things like “I pay your salary” and assume it meant they could control what I did.

                I can see the appeal of being able to hack a hole in your own wall or get a pet without asking anyone’s permission.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  Not so much – it reminds me a bit of the folks who would say things like “I pay your salary” and assume it meant they could control what I did.

                  Are you saying that you think that some creeps would want to tell you how to live just because it’s a state house?

                  I can see the appeal of being able to hack a hole in your own wall or get a pet without asking anyone’s permission.

                  You actually do have to get permission to hack a hole in your wall and there’s rules around having pets as well. There shouldn’t be any other rules applied just because it’s a state house though.

                  • McFlock

                    Well, yes they do. Especially under tory govt.

                    But additionally, if I owned my place I wouldn’t need to get permission to put in a cat flap, or strip the wallpaper, or not take out the rubbish for a while, or rip up the carpet, or get a cat, or change the stairs, or rip out the bathtub an install a spa bath, or create an ornamental garden instead of a lawn, or paint the roof green.

                    Some of those might require a standard building consent for safety reasons or other impacts on neighbours/whatever (which is as it should be, negative externalities and all), but the point is that I don’t have to ask permission from someone simply because they own the property I want to fuck around with.

                    There’s a lot to be said for owning your own home.

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      Well, yes they do. Especially under tory govt.

                      Then put in place rules that stop them doing that.

                      And yes, that does mean putting limitations on government but then we should be doing that any way.

                      But additionally, if I owned my place I wouldn’t need to get permission to put in a cat flap, or strip the wallpaper, or not take out the rubbish for a while, or rip up the carpet, or get a cat, or change the stairs, or rip out the bathtub an install a spa bath, or create an ornamental garden instead of a lawn, or paint the roof green.

                      And why would you need to do that in a state house?

                      Again, it’s about putting in place the right rules that allow people to do such things. Just so long as they don’t destroy the house it shouldn’t be a problem.

                    • McFlock

                      Well, yes they do. Especially under tory govt.

                      Then put in place rules that stop them doing that.

                      And yes, that does mean putting limitations on government but then we should be doing that any way.

                      Assuming I could rewrite the rulles, there’s always the question of the next tory government rewriting the rules back again.

                      But additionally, if I owned my place I wouldn’t need to get permission to put in a cat flap, or strip the wallpaper, or not take out the rubbish for a while, or rip up the carpet, or get a cat, or change the stairs, or rip out the bathtub an install a spa bath, or create an ornamental garden instead of a lawn, or paint the roof green.

                      And why would you need to do that in a state house?

                      Again, it’s about putting in place the right rules that allow people to do such things. Just so long as they don’t destroy the house it shouldn’t be a problem.

                      Again, even assuming I rewrote the rules to suit myself, there’s nothing stopping the next tory government from rewriting them back.

                      Even in a state house, in this day and age you still need to ask the landlord for permission to make alterations. That is why private home ownership still has its attractions. Maybe that would change if we could guarantee that tories would never be in power again, but that raises more issues than it solves.

                    • Draco T Bastard

                      It’s not about writing the rules to suit yourself but simply making them right and that does mean limiting government. Done right, the Tories won’t be able to change them.

                    • McFlock

                      Well, when that happens, get back to me.

              • David Mac

                With hard earned achievement comes pride, it’s an emotional thing Draco. The force that pushes us all along. The pursuit of feeling good.

                You seem to be an expert on what society should be doing for me but I’m not seeing much of what I should be doing in return. I’d love a free house but I fear all the builders will be fishing.

                • Draco T Bastard

                  You seem to be an expert on what society should be doing for me but I’m not seeing much of what I should be doing in return.

                  Really? you seem to get it here:

                  I’d love a free house but I fear all the builders will be fishing.

                  Society cannot be separated from the individuals in it nor the obverse.

                  • David Mac

                    Yeah…..if I give you a house in 5 years you’ll be demanding I paint it for you.

                    if it’s yours you’ll paint it yourself. I’ll be fishing.

          • aerobubble 2.1.1.1.2

            Money talks. Improvished, poorly paid, have little to look forward to. More so in Nz since the media narrative is monied people have a voice. Govts usedo believe keeping the population housed, fed well, accessing health, having security, education, meant they would be available in war time, and for bettering their position in peace time. THen the neo-lib declared fees for education, health, stopped social housing, and media, even Labour now recoil from bringup how badly run NZ is, well we’re doing so well stiff ourserves on housing, health, on future prospects, geez the only way out is a doing it yourself on your individualistic owesome, no.8 wire…,

            Sure social housing would be great, but when the buildings are one story high, it aint the solution to go all swedish loving, its a civics problem, when councils draw up land they design for one story homes with curvy roads and cars. Not for long term decades later when pop. rises and boundaries need to be merged, buses need direct routes, etc, etc. The idea of citizens living close to shops, schools, retail harms the systemic interests of car industry, real estate agents, builders makups, etc etc.

            Build a new, dense city in S.auckland before they carve up the land and build sprawl, oops, too late.

    • Wayne 2.2

      It is obvious what happened in 2014, and it was widely reported at the time. A number of voters were very annoyed at the whole Mana Internet thing and the stunt at the town hall that they were determined to vote National. That also included non-voters, who are not all Left as is sometimes supposed.

      • David Mac 2.2.1

        Alas, to a degree, I agree. Wasn’t obvious to me. The prospect of Kim having leverage in the Hive may well of prompted voting action from the ‘can’t be bothered right across the political spectrum.

        Rather than a compelling reason to win an election, that order of events became a compelling reason to lose one.

        That energy can be steered in either direction.

    • dukeofurl 2.3

      The story mentions they dont account for ‘left the country’ as well.

  3. james 3

    Thats really interesting.

    This years one will be more so.

  4. greywarshark 4

    It seems that the Other is about the same size as NZFirst and Greens. If some of the alternative parties that are credible have their interests taken on board, it could be a valuable though small boost for a small party.

    The artistic way the graphic is drawn with colours intensifying only near their end isn’t helpful in tracing where they have come from.

  5. Paul Campbell 5

    How come there’s a ‘too young to vote’ category and not a ‘dead’ one ….

    I guess it’s part of ‘others’ but that means you can’t meaningfully compare ‘others’ on each side

    • Paul Campbell 5.1

      Ah I see he’s recording ‘self reported votes and, well, dead men tell no tales ….

      Nevertheless one should be careful about comparing both sides (the missing data could be reconstructed using exit polling data and demographic info)

  6. dukeofurl 6

    I would have thought the 2011- Too young to vote portion would have a higher -Did not vote in 2014.
    As they dont have the voting habit, which comes from knowing where the polling places are , having the time to do so etc.

    Each year 63k voters turn 18, and we know a high portion dont vote, in 3 years that 190k who would be in the ‘too young to vote’ category.

    The reason why NZ first shows up strongly is that they were the only party to have a significant increase in % party votes , ‘other parties’ was the same .

  7. David Mac 7

    If those dying between the 2 elections were not factored in I would expect NZ First to have a fatter ‘Did not vote’ line.

    • Paul Campbell 7.1

      Because the graphs depend on self reported voting, and the dead tend to not report much, that information is likely missing

      • David Mac 7.1.1

        Yes, sorry you had to repeat yourself. Not sure why the bleeding obvious escaped me. Please don’t ask me the time when I’m holding a drink.

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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • California bans private prisons
    Private prisons are a stain on humanity. Prison operators explicitly profit from human misery, then lobby for longer prisons terms so they can keep on profiting. And in the US, prison companies run not only local and state prisons, but also Donald Trump's immigration concentration camps. Faced with this moral ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Why PPPs are a bad idea
    When National was in power, they were very keen on Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) - basicly, using private companies to finance public infrastructure as a way of hiding debt from the public. They were keen on using them for everything - roads, schools, hospitals. But as the UK shows, that "service" ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • A Movement That No Longer Moves.
    Moving And Shaking: There was a time when people spoke matter-of-factly about the “labour movement” – a political phenomenon understood to embrace much more than the Labour Party. Included within the term’s definition was the whole trade union movement – many of whose members looked upon the Labour Party as ...
    2 weeks ago
  • NZ ‘left’ politically embracing extreme postmodernism
    by Philip Ferguson Much of the left, even people who formally identify as marxists, have collapsed politically in the face of postmodern gender theory of the sort pioneered by American philosopher Judith Butler. For Butler even biological sex is socially constructed. “If the immutable character of sex is contested, perhaps ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • The obvious question
    The media is reporting that the (alleged) Labour party sexual assaulter has resigned from their job at Parliament, which means hopefully he won't be turning up there making people feel unsafe in future. Good. But as with everything about this scandal, it just raises other questions. Most significantly: why the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The moment I found out that you found out, I acted swiftly
    By Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I am every bit as angry as you are. I am every bit as disappointed as you must be. The people with power, oversight and the ability to do something about these processes within the Labour Party should be ashamed. Whoever those people are, I ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • This is why people hate property developers
    Property developers think there is an "oversupply" of houses in Auckland:High turnover rates and falling prices may be a sign that there are too many new houses going in to some parts of Auckland, commentators say. [...] Property developer David Whitburn said there was a "bit of an oversupply" in ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Australia to Pacific: “Fuck you, you can all drown”
    World leaders are meeting in New York in two weeks for the 2019 Climate Action Summit, where they are expected to announce new and more ambitious targets to stop the world from burning. But the Australian Prime Minister won't be there, despite being in the USA at the time:Scott Morrison ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Implausible ignorance
    Labour Party president Nigel Haworth resigned yesterday over the party's sexual assault scandal. But while that's good news, its unlikely to take away the stench of a coverup. Because according to Paula Bennett in Parliament yesterday, pretty much everyone in the Prime Minister's office was involved as well:I have been ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s Fatal Flaw.
     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago

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