election 2014

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The Cunliffe bounce

Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, October 30th, 2013 - 26 comments

Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. We can look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.

Two-term panic gripping the rightwing punditry

Written By: - Date published: 10:52 am, October 26th, 2013 - 102 comments

John Armstrong, Tracy Watkins, and Fran O’Sullivan all write today about National’s plunging polls and the growing likelihood that this will be the first two-term National government. They take different approaches – Armstrong: there’s nothing for Key to worry about, Watkins: there was a problem but the tide’s turning back, O’Sullivan: yeah, Key’s fucked.

Asset sales: Key’s scorched earth tactics will backfire

Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, October 25th, 2013 - 60 comments

Granny supported little Johnny’s plan to go off to market and sell the family’s cash cow. But even she’s furious that what he’s come back with amounts to nothing more than a hill of beans. As Granny Herald notes, the Nats’ determination to push ahead with the remaining sales regardless is all about ideology, and the knowledge that they’re going to lose the next election.

Fight you bastards fight

Written By: - Date published: 9:26 am, October 23rd, 2013 - 49 comments

At least one MP if not the whole of National’s caucus knew that the news concerning Len Brown and Bevan Chuang would break soon eight days before it did.  Slater’s and Palino’s claims are becoming more and more difficult to believe.  And in a comment yesterday Bad12 sums up why this is such bad news for National.

KiwiFund: nationalisation or competition?

Written By: - Date published: 8:05 pm, October 21st, 2013 - 61 comments

Winston Peters’ KiwiFund proposal would nationalise KiwiSaver.  Russel Norman supports it, but in competition with private schemes.  Cunliffe is open to negotiation.  Key is dismissive, but says Peters is so untrustworthy he is likely to back down & form an alliance with National anyway.

The red tide rising

Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2013 - 40 comments

National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive Roy Morgan polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.

Roy Morgan – easy win for Labour/Greens?

Written By: - Date published: 6:54 pm, October 17th, 2013 - 104 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour 37%, Green 12.5%, and National down to 41.5%. As Roy Morgan says, this is the closest Labour has been since 2008.  Morgan’s comment: “If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that a Labour/ Greens alliance would win easily.” The Conservatives have dropped from 2% to 0.5% – no help there.

The fish rots from the head

Written By: - Date published: 8:12 pm, October 16th, 2013 - 91 comments

Today’s decision that John Banks will stand trial for signing a false donations return signals the beginning of the end of the Key government. Increasingly it resembles the last days of the Shipley government only worse, as corruption replaces shambles. The decision also puts the famous tea party conversation between Key and Banks, where they stitched up the deal to provide the present Government’s majority, into new perspective.

Statistics Data release – new North Island seat proposed

Written By: - Date published: 11:27 am, October 7th, 2013 - 16 comments

Statistics New Zealand has released the census night data and there will be one new seat in the North Island.  The process of sorting out new boundaries could have significant implications for seats particularly those around Auckland.

How?

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 am, September 30th, 2013 - 85 comments

The Herald and John Key are whining that National will have a ‘moral mandate’ to govern after the next election if it is the highest polling party, even if it can’t form a majority and the Left can. But the Herald and Key don’t answer the critical question: how? How would a National Party that can’t secure a majority in Parliament govern?

Return of the Hollow Men

Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, September 26th, 2013 - 48 comments

With Cunliffe’s Labour in the ascendance, NAct and/supporters pull out their bag of dirty and deceptively manipulative, Hollow Men, tricks. Adviser to John Key & Boris Johnson, Mark Textor, will most likely be used again: ruthless attack politics, playing on fears & prejudices.

We have just over 400 days to change this Government

Written By: - Date published: 6:52 am, September 25th, 2013 - 52 comments

Cunliffe-Labour-save-our-futureDavid Cunliffe’s reign as leader of the Labour Party has started with a great deal of promise and this morning’s Herald Digipoll is encouraging.  Labour is finally looking united and policy statements are sharp and effective.  But we may be no more than 400 days to the next election.  And unless we want the instability of a Labour Green NZ First Coalition then support for the left and work by its activists will need to be increased dramatically.

Housing: the options, the new left narrative?

Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, September 13th, 2013 - 75 comments

The response to Metiria Turei’s sttements about affordable housing on The Vote, raises questions about political narratives are told to the general electorate? The Greens, Mana and Cunliffe have stressed their “vision“.  How to tell it so it reaches the hearts of New Zealanders?

Winston Peters, King Maker

Written By: - Date published: 8:49 am, July 25th, 2013 - 109 comments

Winston_Peters smilingWinston Peters may be the king maker after the next election.  No wonder that John Key has started to court the person he said as a matter of principle he would never have in his Government.

On the Labour leadership

Written By: - Date published: 2:57 pm, July 21st, 2013 - 207 comments

Over the last few weeks Labour has been in a state of agitation as the party, the affiliates and even the caucus have come to the realisation that the Shearer project has failed.

The flat patch

Written By: - Date published: 10:18 am, July 5th, 2013 - 17 comments

I’ve been having a look at the Roy Morgan trend. Oddly, I don’t see this Labour ‘flat patch’ that people are claiming is happening. What is happening is that the Greens are trending slightly down (as it usually does mid-term) and Labour isn’t rising fast enough to offset that. We’re still some way off the safe-zone for Labour+Greens, and the question is whether we’ll get there.

Moral mandates

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, July 3rd, 2013 - 115 comments

Key is clearly getting nervous about the implosion of his possible electoral partners in 2014. He’s running the “largest party has a moral mandate to govern line” again. It’s destabilising, and it’s rubbish, here’s why…

Sharples packs it in

Written By: - Date published: 10:30 pm, July 1st, 2013 - 72 comments

Sharples has resigned as Maori Party co-leader. Leaving politics next year. Flavell will become co-leader, I guess. The government’s getting shaky. Sharples can stay on as a minister but will he? Will Flavell be willing to stick with the National coalition? Add Dunne’s anger over the emails, Key’s dismissive treatment of him at post-Cab Banks’ trial, and Labour’s ‘flat patch’… things are getting snappy.

Positioning and reality

Written By: - Date published: 7:31 am, June 10th, 2013 - 72 comments

There’s a lot of talk at the moment about whether Labour is too close to the Greens. Lately, we’ve seen spin coming out that Labour might be able to govern without the Greens, favouring NZF instead. Meanwhile, the Greens seem happy to talk about a future Greens-Labour government. National’s leaking to Peters and Peters is playing the race card. What’s going on?

Gone

Written By: - Date published: 4:03 pm, June 7th, 2013 - 241 comments

Having resigned as Minister, how long before we see a by-election in Ohariu as Peter Dunne’s credibility keeps dripping away? And will we see an early election?

Trends

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, May 29th, 2013 - 176 comments

So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.

Election narratives

Written By: - Date published: 11:11 am, May 27th, 2013 - 123 comments

National has set out its narrative for the 2014 election. Time for the Left to do the same.

Budget roundup

Written By: - Date published: 11:46 am, May 16th, 2013 - 213 comments

Budget links and reaction (updates to come).

Four years of misguided austerity have delayed any recovery.

Despite the advance publicity there is nothing significant here for families in poverty.

Labour on MMP “consultation”

Written By: - Date published: 9:30 am, May 16th, 2013 - 29 comments

According to Labour: “Judith Collins has claimed that she ‘consulted’ with political parties but was unable to reach consensus. There was absolutely no consultation.”

City Rail Link in the Budget?

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 15th, 2013 - 45 comments

A reader sent us a comment from another blog by someone who was polled a couple of weeks back. The questions are very interesting, especially once you realise that it’s clearly being done for National and the Right in Auckland (one of the questions gives it away). Have a read, then I’ll tell you why I reckon the Nats are going to fund the City Rail Link in the Budget.

Key goes negative

Written By: - Date published: 9:15 am, May 2nd, 2013 - 156 comments

John Key has gone hard negative, with his rants about North Korea and communism, and now an attack on the Greens. Negative is where you go when you don’t have a positive story to tell the electorate. I wonder if the Nats’ internal polling has got Key spooked…

NRT: MMP review: Running down the clock

Written By: - Date published: 10:55 am, April 26th, 2013 - 1 comment

I/S at No Right Turn on the strange disappearance of the Electoral Commission recommendations on MMP. Soon it will be too late to have changes in place for 2014…

Polling merry-go-round

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments

The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.

Room left for Greens in Labour reshuffle

Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, February 26th, 2013 - 49 comments

I think the Labour reshuffle is quite clever in how it signals the portfolios that its willing to give to the Greens and encourages them to set about being lead opposition spokespeople on those topics. Sure, the reshuffle has some weird stuff in it – ChCh Earthquake spokesperson a backbencher!, 6 ex-staffers in the top 10, Mallard’s ‘demotion’ that isn’t. But there’s some smarts there too.

That ‘ol margin of error

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments

There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of the two most recent polls, it’s just noise – the margin of error. But the underlying trend is still good for the Left…

Poll of polls looking good

Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 137 comments

Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…

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