Good news bad news polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags: , ,

As usual, good news and bad news for the Left in the latest pair of polls.

The bad news is that Labour is down in both (albeit margin of error). The ONE News Colmar Brunton has National down 2% to 54%, and Labour down 2% to 28%. Greens are steady on 9%.  The Herald Digipoll has Labour down 0.4% to 28.7%.

The good news is that The Herald Poll also has National below 50% for the first time:

Poll shock as Nats’ support falls under 50%

National has plunged nearly five points to below 50 per cent in the past week and the smaller parties – including a fast-rising New Zealand First – are picking up support, according to the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey. …

NZ First is within striking distance of the crucial 5 per cent threshold, with just 1.3 points to get there.

While Labour has lost support, the popularity of its leader, Phil Goff, has shot up.

It is the first time National has fallen below 50 per cent in a Herald-DigiPoll survey since the last election.

It’s only one poll, but the Nats will be worried. Suddenly the incipient death of the ACT party looks like a real problem for them. So, predictably (from the same piece):

Prime Minister John Key is expected today to have a symbolic public meeting with Act Epsom candidate John Banks, who on today’s poll would take another Act MP into Parliament with him if he won the electorate seat.

If National’s polling slips further before the November 26 election, two Act MPs could become important to Mr Key forming a new government.

And at that point, things start to get pretty interesting…

44 comments on “Good news bad news polls ”

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  1. Gosman 1
    11 November 2011 at 7:43 am

    So the chances of National losing this election is reliant on National slipping well below 50% and ACT, NZ First, the Maori party, and United Future getting no MP’s. Yeah I can see that is likely to happen.

    • Galeandra 1.1
      11 November 2011 at 7:50 am

      So you go so far as to hope that a changed-in-mind National-supporting Peters wins some seats then, as insurance? Your response reveals your anxieties so Rob is right, ‘the Nats will be worried.’

      • Gosman 1.1.1
        11 November 2011 at 11:42 am

        Ummmm….no. Where did I state that I hope NZ First wins some seats?

        What you fail to understand that if NZ First wins some seats he is likely to hold the balance of power. As he has stated he won’t be joining any Government and believes that the party with the most votes should attempt to form the Government it is highly improbable that Labour will be able to cobble a coalition together involving NZ First, the Greens, the Mana party, and possibly the Maori party. There is no way that National won’t be the biggest party on Election night.

      • Galeandra 1.1.2
        11 November 2011 at 1:10 pm

        the chances of National losing this election is reliant on National slipping well below 50% and ACT, NZ First, the Maori party, and United Future getting no MP’s.

    • Scotty 1.2
      11 November 2011 at 9:25 am

      So can I, hatman,so can I, good sport eh,watching a dead cert get run down in the home straight

  2. Lanthanide 2
    11 November 2011 at 8:35 am

    Ex Labour MP, can’t remember his name, was talking about this on the radio this morning.

    He pointed out that the Right/Wrong direction has had the biggest change in any single week that he can remember:

    “The decline in National’s support is reflected in the drop in the percentage who believe the government is moving in the right direction – from 62.3 per cent last week to 54.7 – and a rise in the number who think it is not (36.2 per cent, compared to 30.4 per cent).”

    • Deuto 2.1
      11 November 2011 at 8:38 am

      Pretty sure it was Pete Hodgson, with ex-Act Stephen Franks as the other one. – that is if it was on Morning Report on RNZ National.

    • The Voice of Reason 2.2
      11 November 2011 at 8:41 am

      Pete Hodgson, Lanth. He was very good, I thought and Stephen Franks seemed to struggle to explain the poll result in a way that looked good for the right.

    • Hami Shearlie 2.3
      11 November 2011 at 9:20 am

      It was Pete Hodgson, the one who exposed Pansy Dun-Wong ! Interesting polls today!

    • Vicky32 2.4
      12 November 2011 at 1:26 am

      Oh, I see Deuto has already said – it was Pete Hodgson (I always prick up my ears at him, he has my family name! 😀 )

  3. ianmac 3
    11 November 2011 at 8:47 am

    Note too that our Phil has shot up to 17%. And that is in spite of the years of slagging from Key and MSM.

    • newsense 3.1
      11 November 2011 at 5:17 pm

      17% ? on the Herald poll?

      All it took was a little bit of coverage and Key having to open his mouth for more than a soundbite?

  4. Olwyn 4
    11 November 2011 at 9:08 am

    The bit I found alarming was the claim that 39% of those canvassed saw the Greens as the best coalition partner for National. There is something about this that makes me sigh – as if there is a largish group of people out there who think “we want all the stuff AND the high moral ground AND all of the oxygen and to hell with the rest of you unsophisticated bozos.”

    • Bored 4.1
      11 November 2011 at 9:28 am

      Thats an acute observation Olwyn, it would appear that the message that we cant keep destroying the planet has got some grip but we all want a last drink before we are ejected from the party.

      • aerobubble 4.1.1
        11 November 2011 at 10:36 am

        There’s a growing realisation, amongst Greens and Business, that they must
        work together. Though its a myth to say National are pro-business, the
        NZ economy has held back business, rewarded family businesses
        and farmers at the expense of growing depth and breath. National
        are not a business party, they are a money party.

        Greens were always going to have to get their hands dirty. But
        Key is no partner, and I hope the Greens sit on the cross benches.
        Labour’s CGT will mean business finally gets the stress it needs
        to grow, much like a fruit tree in Otago, when they contain
        the roots and the tree select to grow more fruit to survivie.
        Essentially we need less lax law making, that typifies ACT/NAT
        government, geez, the amount of noise pollution, urban noise
        graffiti thanks to Key/Hide law to allow drivers to upgrade their
        car noise is astonishing. Quite neighbourhoods have turned into
        raceways.

    • Akldnut 4.2
      11 November 2011 at 10:44 am

      Of the 39% there may be a number disgruntled National swing voters giving preference to the Greens because they just can’t bring themselves to vote for Labour.

      If that happens it’s still good.

    • McFlock 4.3
      11 November 2011 at 1:26 pm

      The talk about the greens being a coalition partner with the nats is an interesting one. While I don’t trust hippies as far as I can throw them, I don’t think that’s likely in this election (I think they were setting themselves up for a couple of elections down the line when they changed the policy).

      However, I also think that the nats fixating on Goff has led to a protest vote from the people who “just felt it was time for a change” last time, which is only reinforced by the suggestion that by voting green you’re not quite flipping the bird at that nice mr key.

      The other factor playing in is that I think there’s a section of the nat strategists that is grasping at green support on confidence&supply as way out if they don’t hit 50% of the vote. Personally I think and hope that they’re a bit deluded this time around, a bit like when Hitler was told Rooseveldt was dead he cheered up and said that the Allies would fall apart into infighting. That sort of “if X then [giving a slim chance of] Y then [giving a slim chance of] Z then [giving a slim chance of] A” so when X happens they say “Yay, now A will happen”.

  5. Sanctuary 5
    11 November 2011 at 9:23 am

    The undecided vote in the Herald poll has dropped to around 8% – I think other polls have had them at the 13-14% range. It may be that the undecided vote is “soft” left supporters now returning to left-wing parties. And Winston is just -what – 25,000 votes away from returning to Parliament with 4-5 friends with NZ First on 3.7%!

    I also think that hammering away at asset sales is really starting to work for Labour.

  6. insider 6
    11 November 2011 at 9:41 am

    It could be another one of those rouge ones

  7. chris73 7
    11 November 2011 at 10:03 am

    In my (always) humble opinion what we’ll end up with is:

    National/Act/Maori Party (and unfortunately Peter Dunne will be there)

    You all know thats whats going to happen but I do admire the way you lefties refuse to accept the inevitable

    • RedLogix 7.1
      11 November 2011 at 10:42 am

      Why bother holding elections chris? You know the outcome already.

      • chris73 7.1.1
        11 November 2011 at 10:57 am

        True, I mean Labout might win the next election and if not then they’ll win the one after

        Then after two or three elections National will get back in then it’ll be Labours turn again etc etc

        Elections do seem to be pointless and expensive, might be better to just give Labour three terms then give National three terms

        • Zaphod Beeblebrox 7.1.1.1
          11 November 2011 at 2:13 pm

          Think that is one of attractions of MMP. Every government is slightly different to the last one.

  8. Blue 8
    11 November 2011 at 10:52 am

    All these journos running around like chickens with their heads cut off just because a poll finally shows what should have been obvious already, that National was never going to get over 50%.

    Honestly, I have to wonder what they get paid for some days.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 8.1
      11 November 2011 at 2:15 pm

      These are the same dickheads who think Key’s slogan-led campaign is crushing Labour’s spirits. People are a lot smarter than the media give them credit for.

  9. randal 9
    11 November 2011 at 10:52 am

    rl. chris is just whistling in the dark to keep his spirits up.
    ipredict that national is about to go belly up big time.
    people have had enough of smarmy little kweewee and his siphoning off money for himself and his pals.

    • chris73 9.1
      11 November 2011 at 11:06 am

      Yes Randal my spirits have been crushed by this poll result, good thing I didn’t see the rest of the poll that shows Labour dropping

      I just don’t accept that National will lose an election this close to polling date when they haven’t done anything majorly wrong, when they’re constantly around 50% for three years, when Labour have done nothing to warrant re-election and the majority of NZ prefer John Key as PM (and don’t want Goff as PM)

      • Vicky32 9.1.1
        12 November 2011 at 1:34 am

        “I just don’t accept that National will lose an election this close to polling date when they haven’t done anything majorly wrong,”

        Lolwut?

    • Gosman 9.2
      11 November 2011 at 11:44 am

      You willing to put some money in the Ipredict markets to back that confidence up randal?

  10. In Vino Veritas 10
    11 November 2011 at 12:33 pm

    Its pleasing to see so many people who have had their spirits lifted. I’m also pleased to see so many putting forward combinations and permutiations that may happen if things change. Excellent work.

  11. Corolla 11
    11 November 2011 at 2:03 pm

    So the Greens are taking Labour’s vote,

    and Winnie is taking the racist vote from National?

  12. Ewout 12
    11 November 2011 at 5:42 pm

    Get real guys, I’m not voting Labour or National, but the reality is National (rightly or wrongly) comes across like a new vibrant rug on the lounge floor where as Labour come across as that dirty old 70’s moth eaten rug draged up from the basment. Just an impression from a unbiased observer.

    [lprent: Newbie commentator – but feels oh so familiar. I suspect I know you. But I will let it through – perhaps you should read the policy. ]

    • The Voice of Reason 12.1
      11 November 2011 at 7:24 pm

      I like the rug analogy, Ewout, but rather than on the lounge floor, I’ll think you’ll find National’s can be found two inches above John Key’s lying eyes.

      • Ewout 12.1.1
        11 November 2011 at 7:52 pm

        You may be proven right, what I was commenting on was the general impression, not nessasarily the reality

  13. Ewout 13
    11 November 2011 at 7:11 pm

    Sorry Iprent I do not know you nor you me as this is the fist time ever I have commented on your site or any other. But I do read regularly your blog and whale oil (arggggggghgh!) and enjoy following the comments of both.

    Regards

    Ewout

    • mickysavage 13.1
      11 November 2011 at 7:30 pm

      Dear Ewout

      If you feel that way about the slithery one then I am sure that a bit of nostalgia will not stop you from voting Labour. Back in the early 1970s things were great! Everyone had a job, there was a comprehensive social welfare system and families could survive adequately on one income earned working 40 hours a week!

      This new vibrant rug you talk about may be there for a week or so but it will quickly wear out and expose some very unfortunate things underneath sooner than you think …

      • Adele 13.1.1
        12 November 2011 at 5:53 am

        The new vibrant rug was bought from the Warehouse, parallel imported from some foreign sweat-shop. It is 100% made from a nylon substitute, and the colours are derived from dyes of vibrant toxicity. All homes should have one.

        .

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