Internal polling apparently good

Written By: - Date published: 6:57 am, July 28th, 2015 - 233 comments
Categories: labour, polls - Tags: , ,

It’s not a good idea in general to comment on internal polling. It isn’t designed for public release, its too easy for others to dismiss, and it needs to be reflected in public polls to be reliable. So we at TS don’t usually write on the occasional rumours that we hear. (No – we don’t have any writers who are Labour staffers so we have to rely on rumours like everyone else.)

Still and all, current internal numbers were publicised yesterday on Whaleoil and The Daily Blog, so here we go then.

The word is that Labour’s internal (UMR) polling has them up 6 to 35 with National down 6 to 41. I’d be inclined to dismiss that if it wasn’t similar (same 6% move) to the most recent Roy Morgan just 10 days ago.

If these numbers are correct then a Labour/ Green win in 2017 is looking good. Take it all with a big grain of salt however, what we need to see is large and sustained shifts in the public polling.

I think we will see those changes over the coming year. The Nats are awash with scandals, the economy is no longer propped up by high dairy prices, and huge issues remain to be addressed. National have wasted their three terms and they don’t deserve another.

 

Update: Colin James’ Poll of Polls confirms National’s drop:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/279836/polls-labour-and-greens%27-support-overtakes-national

– TRP

 

233 comments on “Internal polling apparently good ”

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  1. ScottGN 1
    28 July 2015 at 7:15 am

    And Radio NZ is reporting this morning on Colin James’ current poll-of-polls which is showing the LAB/GRNS combo pulling in front of National for the first time in over a year.

    • b waghorn 1.1
      28 July 2015 at 7:30 am

      Good but are they pulling ahead of national/nzf ?

      • ScottGN 1.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 7:37 am

        Don’t get too carried away.

        • Jenny Kirk 1.1.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 8:27 am

          I agree – this is quite a bit too soon. And its only a rumour – from WhaleOil of all people.

          (But its a huge morale booster for Labour activists anyway !)

          • r0b 1.1.1.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 9:13 am

            We wouldn’t repeat anything just from WO – it’s been confirmed by various sources.

            • ianmac 1.1.1.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 9:53 am

              How would Whaleoil and Kiwiblog get the figures for internal polling from Labour’s UMR?

              • Puckish Rogue …
                28 July 2015 at 9:57 am

                Whaleoil claims Labour MPs talk to him but really the thought a Labour MP would break ranks like that is just preposterous

                • dukeofurl …
                  28 July 2015 at 10:36 am

                  I thought Phil Quin was his ‘labour party member’ and one of his ghost writers.
                  Always with the Oily Orca you have to read between the lines, so make it ex labour party MP and you have a more accurate description.

              • Draco T Bastard …
                28 July 2015 at 10:25 am

                National Party spy?

              • Clemgeopin …
                28 July 2015 at 10:41 am

                I think an acquaintance might have deliberately given it to WO and KB for tactical reasons. I actually think that it is a good thing that this news has been first published/revealed in the RW blogs. I see a positive in that in this particular case.

                • Tracey …
                  28 July 2015 at 10:45 am

                  My thinking too Clem… Is it protocol for Opposition Leaders or Shadow Ministers to get copies of such reports before they are published or publicised?

                  Mind you, its not uncommon for Governments of all persuasions to intentionally leak something which might be big (Heath and Education espesh) to see how the public react, do some polling, then work on watering down unpopular bits?

                • whateva next? …
                  28 July 2015 at 6:44 pm

                  I see, I suppose it is the best way to spread the good news

  2. Tautoko Mangō Mata 2
    28 July 2015 at 7:48 am

    I think if Labour totally opposed the TPPA, and also persuaded some of the institutionalised more right wing Labour MPs to announce their forthcoming retirement, then the trend in the polls would continue, probably more rapidly.

    • Skinny 2.1
      28 July 2015 at 8:31 am

      Yes I agree a great opportunity for Labour to improve their position by denouncing the TPPA as untenable in it’s current form.

      Be great if Phil Goff confirms he is off to contest the Auckland mayoralty with a pledge to sort out the housing and traffic problems. Without being disrespectful there are a number of long serving MP’s that should signal their moving on for the best interests of the party. Like Cosgrove, Dyson, Moroney, King, Beaumont, Mackey and a few non performers who I won’t name. If this happens I would expect a surge in popularity for Labour.

      • Ovid 2.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 8:57 am

        King

        I think she’s been doing really well lately. She was a firebrand on Morning Report yesterday over the DHB policy paper leak.

        • Skinny 2.1.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 9:15 am

          OK she is a late bloomer, I agree is having a golden run. However it is time to push her out of the deputy chair and put someone like Parker in there. He has had time to be rechipped to get that neo liberal glitch out of him.

          • Marvellous Bearded Git 2.1.1.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 9:30 am

            King is performing well and there are a LOT of votes out there for pensioner grey-haired women. Keep her in the shadow cabinet.

            • Chooky 2.1.1.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 9:40 am

              +100 Marvellous Bearded Git…doesnt pay to push the oldies off the perch….particularly when they are always a high performer like Annette King

              … for all her past sins…King is a HIGH PERFORMER and should be retained!…not least to appease the women’s lib generation…but also because of her experience

              Labour needs a dynamic Grandma! ( now that Aunty Helen is in New York running the United Nations)

              GO LABOUR!

            • whateva next? 2.1.1.1.1.2
              28 July 2015 at 6:47 pm

              …..and attracts those voters who like staying power, like those who vote for Peters because they recognise him…and at least we know which side she is on! Very valuable.

        • Tracey 2.1.1.2
          28 July 2015 at 10:07 am

          Hmmmm I heard it and didn’t consider she was firebrand.

          How irresponsible would it be for a government to have gone to the polls last year (as she suggested) before they had actually obtained a report and recommendations of things?

          It seems to me that (like our Ports and our Universitys/PTEs and sports grounds) we are too regional and too factionalised meaning we have more of everything than e need. Perhaps this is also true of DHBs and Board members on them?

          The Health systems is broken. It is in part broken because of the flawed starting point of our thinking, how much money can we spare and how do we make that fit best? Instead of evaluating what is needed, what will work and then applying the financial ruler to that.

          Hopefully this report addresses that point.

          • Chooky 2.1.1.2.1
            28 July 2015 at 11:23 am

            …who is saying “firebrand”?

            …”performing well” …”doing really well”..”.HIGH PERFORMER”…not a “late bloomer “…but a consistent high performer over the years in her portfolios…tried and true high performer… her message is always clear and to the point…not to be underestimated

      • Karen 2.1.2
        28 July 2015 at 9:21 am

        keep up! Neither Moana Mackey nor Carol Beaumont are current MPs.

        Annette King is performing well as Health spokesperson IMO, although I think Kevin Hague would be a better Minister of Health in a Labour/Green government.

        • Skinny 2.1.2.1
          28 July 2015 at 9:44 am

          *Apologise
          Yes agreed Hauge would be ideal in that position along with Genter in the hefty Transport position, Twyford is a non performer there, too be fair Housing is his go.

        • dukeofurl 2.1.2.2
          28 July 2015 at 9:53 am

          Hague has made no impact in health up to now. Only insiders would know he was administrative head of the smallest DHB in the country.
          Even the greens members havent cared much for his record choosing a newbie for XY chromosome leader

          • Naturesong 2.1.2.2.1
            28 July 2015 at 10:41 am

            That Hague did not win the co-leadership is not evidence that Green party members do not value his skills and insight, particularly in the area of health.
            Rest assured Kevin is still highly respected and valued by Green Party members.

            And Hague regularly comments on issues pertinent to his portfolio. Kevin Hague – ACC – 23 July 2015

            That he does not get asked for comment and that his press releases do not get published in the main newspapers I suspect says more about the editorial lines of those papers than it does about the quality of his work.

            • dukeofurl 2.1.2.2.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 10:55 am

              Save the happy clappy pap for the greens blog. After all his years of work in the party and connections to the green community Hague was bypassed by the smooth talking ‘PWC green’ with corporate style cufflinks to match.

              Made no impact is just that, you could have at least dredged up something about health, or does he have no sources among the wider health bureaucracy.

              • Colonial Viper …
                28 July 2015 at 12:35 pm

                After all his years of work in the party and connections to the green community Hague was bypassed by the smooth talking ‘PWC green’ with corporate style cufflinks to match.

                Careful there. Just like Grant Robertson was “bypassed” by newbie Parliamentarian Andrew Little?

                • dukeofurl …
                  28 July 2015 at 3:55 pm

                  If you can remember Robertson did win the party faithfull, and the Mps…

                  I didnt know PWC and other corps could vote in Green elections

              • Naturesong …
                28 July 2015 at 12:51 pm

                What’s the happy clappy bollocks?

                The potential co-leaders spoke to the membership and presented their vision of how they can best serve the party.
                And, the membership thought that at this time, Shaw was the best candidate for the job.

                Co-leadership is not given on time served. Nor on connections, nor on whether or not someone is perceived to work harder than another candidate (find me a Green MP that does not work hard, smart, and long hours?).

                Are you seriously arguing that because Hague did not win the co-leadership that the general membership suddenly don’t like him, or fail to recognise the quality of his work?
                Btw, since the leadership contest he’s picked up another portfolio, conservation.

                Links. I just linked the latest. He’s been on a break.
                Here’s a fresh one, from today Sick New Zealanders will pay under John Keys TPPA.

                Btw, you don’t think that the new “ACC appeals tribunal” the govt. is about to set up is worthy of discussion?
                “The call comes after the release of research by the University of Otago Legal Issues Centre and Acclaim Otago which highlights ”widespread and systemic barriers to access to justice” when it comes to ACC”
                Sounds important to me.

                But you’re probably right. After all, what’s ACC go to do with health care in NZ?

                • dukeofurl …
                  28 July 2015 at 4:03 pm

                  Boiler plate outrage, probably done by the office staff.

                  Not the reason we have Mps. Its all worthy stuff, in a greens kind of way, 2 cm deep and 100m wide.

                  What the vote really means is Hague will be looking for a new life out of politics by the time the next election comes around ( or sooner)

                  This is not the right place to talk about Hagues strengths, we will WAIT for a Standard post covering him………… maybe not then.

              • Galeandra …
                28 July 2015 at 1:02 pm

                Pardon me, duke, but your ignorance is showing.

      • Ron 2.1.3
        28 July 2015 at 9:52 am

        All very well but if Phil departs we have to have a by-election (unless he could be persuaded to keep both jobs until midway through 2017) and Labour do not need a by-election and the expense involved just before a national election.
        Last election we had the Greens spending more than the Labour which no doubt will happen again unless we can tap some new source of funds.

        Be great if Phil Goff confirms he is off to contest the Auckland mayoralty

        • Tracey 2.1.3.1
          28 July 2015 at 10:08 am

          not for Auckland.

        • Skinny 2.1.3.2
          28 July 2015 at 10:13 am

          What a defeatist attitude Ron, Goff has had long enough to think about this and so has Labour for that matter. They should be pushing forward and promoting a new candidate by now. That ‘new’ candidate needs to be receiving publicity or are they going to gift it to a current MP like Twyford or Ardern? Fuck the funding if the party can’t afford it. The candidate can use the proven method of door knocking and public speaking. Goff should be funding raising for the by election ahead of his own self interest. Let him sell a rental property or two and pay his own campaign.

          • Ron 2.1.3.2.1
            28 July 2015 at 2:24 pm

            not defeatist at all. We have just had an expensive election and then the Northland by election and if we have to have another one that is two elections between national elections. Of course if we have to, we do it but its a pain.

            • Skinny 2.1.3.2.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 2:48 pm

              OK well if troughers like Goff had an ounce of decency he would have gone list only and made way for new blood in the seat last election. But no not a chance of that, the guy needs to be real he finally got the leadership and showed poor management by not cleaning out the rear guard, lost against Key (not surprisingly) resigns as leader and is still there. The wider voting public are not stupid and see this, meanwhile Key axes his has beens, very ruthlessly and quite publicly.

        • dukeofurl 2.1.3.3
          28 July 2015 at 10:48 am

          the greens raised more money as they ‘tithe’ their Mps just like bishop Tamaki does his flock.

          • Ron 2.1.3.3.1
            28 July 2015 at 2:20 pm

            So do Labour so what?

            • dukeofurl 2.1.3.3.1.1
              29 July 2015 at 7:45 am

              Not the industrial scale that the greens do.
              The bottom ranked Mp gets pinged $17.5k and the highest gets $22k in the 2014 year.
              It seems to be EVERY year.
              I doubt there is ANY labour MP that is ‘giving’ that much over the 3 years between elections

              Like I said Bishop Tamaki scale tithing which is by automatic payroll dedeuctions

      • Clemgeopin 2.1.4
        28 July 2015 at 10:53 am

        Moroney does very well.

        It is unfair to name MPs here like that, because you are just one person with one particular opinion putting massive pressure on certain MPs through a public blog.

        • Skinny 2.1.4.1
          28 July 2015 at 11:14 am

          Spare me your admonishment Clem. Moroney has stood in the plum seat Hamilton West and lost every time. Not helped that she can’t be bothered getting off her arse and door knocking ” I don’t do the door knocking thing”. With an attitude like that she should be list only and give someone who is prepared too do the hard yards. She is a good leftie but sometimes that isn’t enough. I suggest less love for the sisterhood and more love for all. She is becoming a one trick pony by pushing the 26 weeks paid parental leave. Move on it is fine as it is.

          • te reo putake 2.1.4.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 11:18 am

            Um, Hamilton East, as well as Hamilton West twice, skinny. And I’m interested to know where you got the door knocking quote from. Doesn’t sound legit to me.

            • Skinny 2.1.4.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 12:22 pm

              You can add Clarks old seat too, but we won’t hold that against her, a friend reakons she has the misfortune of increasing the opposition Nat candidate’s majority in every election she has stood in.

              The quote is from her to me coobah after i quizzed her, she was safe on the list and too fucking lazy imo. The question of door knocking came about after i questioned former Ham East Labour MP Dianne Yeats on how the hell did she win the Tory side of town. She told me she went out and door knocked every house in the seat as part of a 6 month campaign strategy.

              I note after failing ‘again last year’ Moroney made a,snake oil pitch about calling it a day, many of us who don’t rate her never believed a word of it, and proved correct.

              • Clemgeopin …
                28 July 2015 at 4:24 pm

                I agree the door knocking thing is very important for every candidate, including those on the list. And they should start doing that systematically a year out from the election, allocating a few hours every week, talking to the voters, understanding their concerns and seeking their support.

                Anyone that does not do it well should be ‘excommunicated’. I am with you there.

                But I do value experienced MPs. A few wise heads are essential to the success of a new government and the younger MPs for at least the first term.

                • Ron …
                  28 July 2015 at 5:56 pm

                  How the heck do they start campaigning a year out when the list doesn’t get published just before election, If the new scheme comes into being it may be possible to get list out a little earlier but remember the old list remains in force until election.

                  • Clemgeopin …
                    29 July 2015 at 12:44 am

                    You got me there!

                    Perhaps the current MPs could regularly meet up and chat with their constituents by going to them, explaining the main policies and understanding the people’s mood and needs. Hard work, sure.

        • the pigman 2.1.4.2
          28 July 2015 at 5:24 pm

          Self-proclaimed “insider” skinny is deeply confused as usual, Clem. Moroney is far from deadwood and Mackey and Beaumont are not even MPs. He suggests twyford may need to be gifted mt roadkill forgetting he already holds te atatu.

          What precious wisdom will be spewed forth next?

          • Clemgeopin 2.1.4.2.1
            28 July 2015 at 5:49 pm

            Yes, quite baffling !

          • Skinny 2.1.4.2.2
            28 July 2015 at 7:06 pm

            Who said I was a Labour insider fuckhead? Obviously I’m not up with the play on who holds what. I have little time for most of Labours
            crew, certainly none for head in the sand idiots like you, that are probably happy enough going into elections with the same dead beat MP’s. Well I am not and guess what Labour buddy…people like me can pick other party’s like the Greens & NZF to support 🙂

            • the pigman 2.1.4.2.2.1
              30 July 2015 at 7:40 pm

              “Who said I was a Labour insider fuckhead?”

              [emphasis my own]

              Not me:

              “Self-proclaimed “insider” skinny…

              That was your characterisation.

              But anyone who visits this blog on a regular basis sees you harp on about what you heard at smoko/the delegates meeting/the local candidate say.

              You frequently profess to have an inside line on the maneuverings of politicos and are often called out on the same, and the fact you’re now pretending you don’t is rather telling, really.

              Anyway, time to get my head back in the sand… it’s noisy up here!

              • Skinny …
                30 July 2015 at 8:08 pm

                The problem with you washed up has beens is truth beknown is the fact ‘your own political party’ and the locals don’t rate you which must be a blow to your ego. In the end you become bitter, reflected in your cynical comments of others.

  3. Puckish Rogue 3
    28 July 2015 at 8:11 am

    Better be prepared for some targeted bribery/spending and some announcements on housing

    • te reo putake 3.1
      28 July 2015 at 8:20 am

      Lines of the Day:

      – Ignore the rise in Labour’s support; instead refer to the preferred PM poll
      – Claim that Parliament/media is abuzz with rumours of a Grant Robertson coup
      – Alternate between these two memes: Little is too quiet/ Angry Andy
      – Captain Key’s decision to throw the ball to Ritchie McCaw at the lineout won us the test against South Africa.
      – John Key does not spend too much time on holiday, he’s actually negotiating an FTA with the Waikiki Golf Club.

      • Puckish Rogue 3.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 8:25 am

        Keys nothing if not pragmatic and has no problems in swallowing dead rats

        • Anno1701 3.1.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 8:53 am

          ive heard its baby mice (pinkies), at least 5 a day

          and dont forget to turn on the heat mat on cold nights !

        • Ron 3.1.1.2
          28 July 2015 at 9:53 am

          That would be interesting… Key eating himself

        • Tracey 3.1.1.3
          28 July 2015 at 10:09 am

          pragmatic when Key does it, bribery when Labour does it? Interesting.

          How many bridges are the North now getting PR/ The whole lot they were pragmaticed during the election or a different number?

          • Puckish Rogue 3.1.1.3.1
            28 July 2015 at 11:59 am

            Will be interesting to see how Winston goes in a true blue electorate…

            • Tracey 3.1.1.3.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 12:13 pm

              Was the question too hard PR?

              • Puckish Rogue …
                28 July 2015 at 12:44 pm

                In all honesty I don’t care so I can’t be bothered looking up how many (or how few)

                Whats more interesting (to me anyway) is how Winston is go as an MP in a (formerly) true blue electorate

                Winston was elected to send a message to National so it will be interesting to see how the electorate reacts if Winston leans too far left

                • Hanswurst …
                  28 July 2015 at 5:46 pm

                  So you don’t care about anything verifiable that might call your views into question, preferring to concentrate on moonbeams and speculation that may or may not support those views?

        • McFlock 3.1.1.4
          28 July 2015 at 11:39 am

          Indeed, he seems to be a bit partial to them, the number he’s been eating lately.

        • Clemgeopin 3.1.1.5
          28 July 2015 at 4:33 pm

          “Keys nothing if not pragmatic and has no problems in swallowing dead rats”

          Are you hinting that Maurice Williamson and Judy Collins will soon no longer be dead rats?

      • dukeofurl 3.1.2
        28 July 2015 at 9:56 am

        Its the Wailea Golf club next to his exclusive gated resort on Maui

      • maui 3.1.3
        28 July 2015 at 10:54 am

        lol

    • Clemgeopin 3.2
      28 July 2015 at 4:28 pm

      Don’t forget plenty of Bridges bridges.

  4. Peter 4
    28 July 2015 at 8:28 am

    … the job of Green/Labour is to get enough voters to believe that it is time to replace the devil we know.

  5. ianmac 5
    28 July 2015 at 9:56 am

    The imminent TPP agreement might or might not earn Key kudos- or not.

    • Tracey 5.1
      28 July 2015 at 10:11 am

      It will. Any impacts will be some time off, negative or positive and to my knowledge no measure of its success has been released to the public? They must have a measure aye, cos otherwise how do they know it is of benefit to NZ?

      They will keep trumpettng the positive aspects and people love good news even when it happened yet.

  6. dukeofurl 6
    28 July 2015 at 10:00 am

    Nationals polls must be giving similar figures, as Key has mentioned all sorts of complicated restrictions on overseas buyers all week.

    There’s no smoke without fire !

    land tax, high rates of stamp duty, migrants to the regions, makes a lot kindling

  7. Draco T Bastard 7
    28 July 2015 at 10:02 am

    National have wasted their three terms and they don’t deserve another.

    I wouldn’t say wasted. The rich got richer and the poor got poorer didn’t they? Just as National wanted.

    Still, I think Stiglitz has it right:

    Speaking in London on Sunday, Joseph Stiglitz warned that policies from centre-left governments such as Tony Blair’s had undermined the middle-ground message, partly by entrenching wealth for the very few.

    “Unfortunately the centre-left parties have wimped out. They have joined in saying: ‘Oh yes, we have to have a kinder version of austerity, a milder version of austerity.’

    It’s just very hard to say these centre-left parties – with emphasis on ‘centre’ – have been able to deliver for most people. Their economic models have not delivered and their message is not working. So to me it’s not a surprise that you have seen, say in the United States, which obviously I know better, that [anti-austerity] progressives are getting a much stronger voice in the Democratic party.

    Labour have to really go back to their roots and do what they did in the 1930s – shift the creation of money to the government and take it from the private banks.

    • Tracey 7.1
      28 July 2015 at 10:12 am

      Agree, our centre left have simply enabled the centre to move to the right and for society to become self centred…

    • Enough is Enough 7.2
      28 July 2015 at 11:11 am

      Exactly.

      I would say from National’s perspective they have been a raging success.

      The rich are richer. The poor are on their knees and getting kicked.

      They will be giving themselves 10 out of 10.

  8. Bob 8
    28 July 2015 at 10:19 am

    Brilliant, I reckon a couple of cheap shots at the Indian population (there were quite a few Indian looking names on that list) and the election is in the bag!

    • dukeofurl 8.1
      28 July 2015 at 10:39 am

      The analysis showed ‘indian names’ were matched to their proportion of the population and not connected to the auckland housing bubble.

      • Naturesong 8.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 10:50 am

        However, the majority of Indians are Asian.

        Ask your Indian friends, how many of them experience racism (overt and covert) as a normal part of their life?

        And then ask them how they felt about Labour singling out an ethnic minority in order to miss the point on house prices.

        • dukeofurl 8.1.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 12:16 pm

          Ethnic minorities are singled out all the time, thats how we know maori are falling behind in many areas or over represented in others.
          The whole point of labours exercise was to point out overseas buyers we speculating and pushing up prices, that effects Indian, Filipino, Koreans as well.
          They might like restrictions that help make houses for new comers more affordable.
          new migrants often find discrimination in their own homeland, China restricts who can go to school in its big cities, how many children, Indian has a caste system which favours some groups.

          • Bill 8.1.1.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 12:58 pm

            Highlighting systemic discrimination or institutional racism and the fallout thereof is one thing.

            Isolating an ethnic minority – especially one that most people would happily, if mistakenly, identify by sight – and associating them with negative actions/behaviours/traits that they have full agency over, is entirely different.

            • Clemgeopin 8.1.1.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 5:09 pm

              On dear! Carry on with your false framing once again and again and again! I think you know very well that the point Labour was highlighting was the discrepancy in the 40% bought houses in 3 months was from Chinese sounding names on the list while proportionately their population is only 9%. Granted sime of those names while sounding Chinese may not be Chinese, but a large number would be. That is statistically correct and common sense, indicating that there is possibly a large proportion of non resident investors in the Auckland market. There was NO other way to analyse that data because this present government has its head and arse buried in the Taklamakan.

              Look at the impact of that expose from Labour. 61 % of people now say they are opposed to Key’s policy. Even Key is now making some noises about restricting non resident foreigners buying in Auckland. That is a good outcome! There is nothing racist in what Labour did. I am sure all sensible people, including resident Chinese, will understand that if they are honest.

              So, I say, hats off to Andrew Little, Twyford and Labour. Great job!

              • Bill …
                28 July 2015 at 6:04 pm

                Fuck me dead! Did you really hit the ‘submit comment’ button on that?

                There is nothing racist in what Labour did. I am sure all sensible people, including resident Chinese, will understand that if they are honest.

                You have an opinion. Anyone not holding that opinion is being dishonest. So Kiwi-Chinese who say they experience Labour’s framing as racist are liars.

                That aside – big aside that it is. Do you not understand that those people who recognise Labour’s framing for what it was are, by and large, against foreign money flooding the housing market? More than that, as a number of commenters have argued, the discussion needs to go beyond foreign money and look at domestic money and institutional money too.

                If that 61% is up on some previous percentage and if any of that is due to how Labour framed this issue (as opposed to people extrapolating from Chinese to all off-shore monies), then it’s a sad fucking day for NZ.

                And again, the undercurrent of negative commentary about China on ‘ts’ , when weighed against negative commentary about money coming from any other nation in the same comment streams…disquieting.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  28 July 2015 at 7:13 pm

                  It’s fucking bullshit and the sign of a desperate Left out of ideas, out of leverage and out of moral courage.

                • Draco T Bastard …
                  28 July 2015 at 7:33 pm

                  So Kiwi-Chinese who say they experience Labour’s framing as racist are liars.

                  No, they’re just wrong.

                  • Bill …
                    29 July 2015 at 9:32 am

                    Fuck me dead again. Irony doesn’t quite cover that!

                    Here’s a fact.

                    You have an opinion that Labour didn’t frame their announcement on overseas sales in an anti-Chinese fashion.

                    Kiwi-Chinese are experiencing a direct sense or feeling of discrimination.

                    And you discount their experience as just an incorrect opinion!?

                    Wow.

                • Clemgeopin …
                  29 July 2015 at 12:25 am

                  Your relentless framing of ‘racist meme’ is crap and is doing the real harm to the race relations than anything else you are pontificating on about Labour. It seems so illogical, agenda driven and hypocritical.
                  I suggest you (and Key and CV) drink lots of stevia laced stronger cups of green tea for three days and nights for some mind clearance to understand stuff and shit the right way. You are welcome!

                  • Bill …
                    29 July 2015 at 9:43 am

                    How is calling out a message mounted on anti-Chinese sentiment for what it is – how is that harmful to race relations?

                    Where is the lack of logic in calling out ‘racism’?
                    What is the agenda in calling out ‘racism’?
                    Where is the hypocrisy in calling out ‘racism’?

                    btw, did you just instruct a Kiwi-Chinese who’s telling you their direct experience straight-up, to essentially fuck off, have a cuppa and calm down? Oh – and to ‘get with the programme’?

                    Astonishing.

                    • te reo putake …
                      29 July 2015 at 10:09 am

                      Except it isn’t racism, Bill. Never was, no matter how much Labour haters portray it that way. And lay off the Chinese, it’s not the fault of the majority in China that they have a burgeoning exploiter class wanting to make money at the expense of Kiwis, Aussies and others.

                    • Bill …
                      29 July 2015 at 10:38 am

                      And lay off the Chinese…

                      It wasn’t me who put the Chinese front centre stage to make a point about overseas investment in NZ housing.

                      Care to point to any comment where I’ve been laying into Chinese?

                      Care to explain how it is that Kiwi-Chinese saying that what Labour did (the xenophobic/racist framing) is fueling feelings of insecurity, how that is driven by hatred of Labour?

                      Are you saying they are all lying about their experience?

                      Want to acknowledge that it was me and others, who from day one, were saying that the housing issue wasn’t the fault of Chinese peoples but a result of economic bullshit – while others (I believe you yourself dismissed the wider economic analysis on the grounds that there was some ‘immediate’ problem to be dealt with) railed against soft loans from the Chinese government and squealed about an influx of Chinese peoples into NZ etc?

                    • te reo putake []
                      29 July 2015 at 10:43 am

                      Actually it was folk like you who put the Chinese centre stage. Labour was at pains to make it clear that they were talking about non-resident investors. So by muddying the waters by bringing ethnicity into, you are taking advantage of racism. A kind of dog whistling, in fact.

          • Naturesong 8.1.1.1.2
            28 July 2015 at 1:35 pm

            “Ethnic minorities are singled out all the time” – Correct, they are.
            How do you think they feel when a political party blames them for the negative effects that result from poor policy?
            Policy that Labour themselves hadn’t addressed when they were in power?
            How do you think that makes other non-white immigrants feel?

            If you know any ethnic Chinese (or who looks vaguely SE Asian) from here or elsewhere), you will no doubt know the racism they are constantly subjected to in NZ.

            Labours point about overseas buyers is rubbish. Or rather, it’s misleading because middle class Chinese nationals investing in NZ housing market is likely to be a fraction of the overseas money entering the market.
            You can transfer millions into shell companies and trusts in NZ. We are after all a Tax Haven.

            And, are you arguing that New Zealand should develop a caste system?
            Have to disagree with you there, bad idea.

  10. Bill 10
    28 July 2015 at 10:38 am

    Hmm. So the Roy Morgan had them up 6. Then they dog-whistled. And if all polls are much of a muchness, then they lost 6?

    I don’t suppose we know the time span of that internal polling thang? – ie, before or after the ‘housing’ data?

    • te reo putake 10.1
      28 July 2015 at 10:45 am

      Labour didn’t dog whistle! There seems to be quite a bit of confusion about what a dog whistle is in some quarters. Releasing all the info you have and being open and honest about it isn’t a dog whistle. Saying one thing, while meaning another, is a dog whistle.

      The 6% RM lifted Labour out of the twenties. They’ve stayed in the thirties since then. That there was no bounce after the housing info release kinda suggests it wasn’t done for cynical polling reasons, but was just the opposition party doing exactly what they should do; hold the Government to account.

      • Colonial Viper 10.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 11:04 am

        Just as well as my belief is that a poll bounce resulting from their anti-Chinese slant would merely have encouraged more shite behaviour from the small circle in caucus who put the strategy together.

        • te reo putake 10.1.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 11:12 am

          Good thing nobody in a position of power in Labour is anti-Chinese. Great that some are anti-speculator though.

          • Colonial Viper 10.1.1.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 11:17 am

            I would be a bit more reassured by your comments if the Labour caucus had the 4-5 Asian MPs it demographically should have, instead of NIL

            • te reo putake 10.1.1.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 11:24 am

              Last time I looked, MP’s have to be elected. So, it’s far more likely that new MP’s will come in under Little on these poll results. If you do know any good Asian candidates, by all means promote them within the party. Under the changes that are being proposed, the ordinary members such as you and I are going to have a real say on who gets the list spots.

              • Colonial Viper …
                28 July 2015 at 11:57 am

                So much for a Labour Party representative of the actual make up of NZ then. 12% Asian. I guess that’s why some in caucus figured out they had no votes to lose from the Chinese community.

                • te reo putake …
                  28 July 2015 at 12:04 pm

                  You’re not making much sense on this, CV. The party is committed to getting the balance as good as possible, but the MP’s still have to be elected. And, first, good candidates, willing to spend three months of their lives campaigning, then spend three years in Wellington, have to be found. As you know, it’s not for everyone.

                  As I said, feel free to find and promote the people you think should be on the list or standing in electorates. Nobody is holding anyone back.

                  • Colonial Viper …
                    28 July 2015 at 12:15 pm

                    Casual readers of The Standard may not know how Labour uses the List moderation process to ensure that the desired balance of MPs gets into caucus, but you and I do.

                    Labour should have 4 to 5 Asian MPs in its caucus but instead it has zero – a very strong signal from Labour given recent events.

                    • Keir …
                      28 July 2015 at 12:22 pm

                      And, erm, there plenty of Asian people willing to do the hard yards as candidates! The National Party certainly manages, and even Winston does it.

                    • te reo putake …
                      28 July 2015 at 12:51 pm

                      “Labour should have 4 to 5 Asian MPs in its caucus but instead it has zero – a very strong signal from Labour given recent events.”

                      By recent events, I assume you mean the last election, because that’s what determines the numbers in caucus.

                    • Skinny …
                      28 July 2015 at 12:56 pm

                      It is plain to see what is going to happen by 2017. Labour will have the token one Asian-Kiwi. Where as Key, Joyce and C&T will pounce on the Asian-Kiwi vote and stand 5 or 6.

                      If I was campaign manager Goff would be forced out and I’d be standing an Asian-Kiwi in his seat. A good candidate who can ease the Asian-Kiwi voters by reinforcing change within Labour starts with a strong MP/s on the inside. Tapping new money for the by election and the party. They have little choice as they are cash strapped. Shit if they did this I’d donate a couple of K for the cause instead of to NZF who I get better mileage from.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 July 2015 at 4:26 pm

                      By recent events, I assume you mean the last election, because that’s what determines the numbers in caucus.

                      I know you are being deliberately obtuse.

                      There wasn’t a single Asian in the top 20 Labour Party list 2014, and you would have needed to go all the way into the 50s and 60s on the Labour list to pick up 4 Asian MPs (I am talking SE Asian and East Asian here) if that.

                      In other words, Labour wasn’t serious about representing Asians NZers in 2014, and it still isn’t.

                    • te reo putake …
                      28 July 2015 at 6:05 pm

                      Bullshit, CV. People have to want to actually be MP’s, go through the process of applying and convince the party that they have what it takes. Fuck tokenism. Focussing on the top twenty is disingenuous because you know that the top spots generally go to sitting MP’s.

                      I guess I know what’s really driving this. But, trust me, you’re not getting the gig.

                    • Ron …
                      28 July 2015 at 6:07 pm

                      Also there was an Asian at position 21, 23 on the list which is the position pretty much where what they gained on region 1 list. As I stated elsewhere it may improve if the party adopts the new list process.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 July 2015 at 7:03 pm

                      Ron – I don’t count Indian subcontinentals as being “Asian” (unlike the UK norm). 9% Chinese in NZ should mean 3 Chinese MPs in caucus not, zero; and not one positioned at 21 on the List with the next one at 50 something on the List.

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 July 2015 at 7:06 pm

                      I guess I know what’s really driving this. But, trust me, you’re not getting the gig.

                      Fucking hell mate, as usual you know shit.

                      Not all your sweet talking nor all the tea in China would convince me to work in such an environment where your so-called “colleagues” are constantly plotting to stick knives in your back.

                    • te reo putake []
                      28 July 2015 at 7:13 pm

                      Yeah, fair call. The LP tend to want candidates who don’t spend all day trolling the party. If that ever changes, I’ll make sure they give you a call 😉

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 July 2015 at 7:20 pm

                      You needn’t worry about that; I’ll be calling you when the time comes.

                    • Skinny …
                      28 July 2015 at 8:59 pm

                      That is a disappointing comment TPR. CV would be an ample replace ment for plenty of the current lot ruining the party’s chances. Taking the likes of us for granted could cost under MMP. The first past the post mentality may have worked last time but I doubt it will again.

                      I note your silence on my reply to the Ham West post where you doubted my word. The silence was not a reasonable response there cobbah.

                    • te reo putake []
                      28 July 2015 at 9:18 pm

                      By the time I got to read your response, others had already more than adequately commented on it, skinny. You’ll probably have to take my word for it that silence was a reasonable response, just as I’ll have to take your word for it that the conversation happened as you reported it.

                      Re: CV, many are called, few are chosen. And some just rule themselves out of the running.

                    • Skinny …
                      28 July 2015 at 9:43 pm

                      Yeah OK TRP fair enough I was a little taken a back you doubted me.

                      I can see where CV is coming from, years of frustration as the same cycle repeats within Labour. I will say unlike other LP supporters who have jumped to mainly the Greens and now absolutely hate the power players within the party,, we hang in there trying to bring change from within as you can not from the outside 🙂

                      In unity brother.

                    • te reo putake []
                      28 July 2015 at 9:53 pm

                      No worries, skinny. We’re pretty much all hoping for the same thing; a party we can be proud of. And the best change happens from within, which I think is what we’re seeing in Labour since members got a say on leadership. Next step, members help decide policy and the list rankings. It’s coming!

                    • Colonial Viper …
                      28 July 2015 at 10:03 pm

                      TRP, you’re a natural superior sonofabitch, I got to credit you with that. I’m still picking Labour 22% to 26% in 2017. Happy to be proven wrong.

                    • te reo putake []
                      28 July 2015 at 10:21 pm

                      You’re working hard to make it happen, comrade! Our owners are very pleased with your efforts.

                  • Clemgeopin …
                    28 July 2015 at 5:41 pm

                    @ CV

                    I took a quick look at their 2014 party list and found a few Chinese sounding names such as………

                    Su’a, Sio, Goff, Huo, Sue, Iain Lees, Poto….

                    And you were saying?

              • Keir …
                28 July 2015 at 12:22 pm

                Are you saying that the Labour Party’s practice is to disproportionately protect white men when the party performs poorly?

            • Ron 10.1.1.1.1.2
              28 July 2015 at 2:35 pm

              There were enough on the list but the problem was that our party vote was down. If I remember correctly your electorate did not manage to get its party vote up. National party vote was some 3000 more than Labour. Not sure why that was it looks like electorate did not push party vote hard enough. Maybe they were working so hard to get their electorate MP in /sarc

              • Colonial Viper …
                28 July 2015 at 7:10 pm

                Hmmmm. Don’t forget that the Review concluded that some electorates were only interested in re-electing their MPs and did not focus on getting the party vote.

                By the way, Dunedin is lost to Labour now. Red MPs might keep getting in for a while, but the seats are now better categorised as marginal or contested, not safe. Voters in Dunedin South have given up on Labour.

                Old timers will know that is a sea change.

                • Sabine …
                  28 July 2015 at 7:45 pm

                  Well they can then vote for National or Greens, NZ First or Legalise Cannabis Aotearoa or a the Dunedin Party (well theoretically they could create one.)

                  I don’t actually see the problem with it.

                  see, before the election i begged an acquaintance of mine to go vote.
                  I said if you can’t identify with any of the parties cause they ‘don’t do anything for your’ then look at your child and vote for the party that is going to do the least damage for her future.

                  He did not vote, National won due to 1 million not voting and the rest is history.

                  the same applies to your voters in Dunedin. They too have a choice to vote for the party that a. represents them best, b. not at all, or c. the party that will do the least damage, or d. not at all.

                  That’s the nice bit about a democracy and it applies to all citizens and residence in this country, as no one has lost voting rights or privileges no matter how much you cry racism.

      • Bill 10.1.2
        28 July 2015 at 11:31 am

        The thing about a dog-whistle trp, is that it isn’t heard by those it’s intended to influence.

        The only people who recognise the whistle are those who don’t go off running.

        In this case it was a call to anti-Chinese sentiments, sentiments that move at shallow depths here in NZ. (And all the ears pricked up and the wee beasties rushed to heel while denying anything untoward had been heard)

        • te reo putake 10.1.2.1
          28 July 2015 at 11:52 am

          “The thing about a dog-whistle trp, is that it isn’t heard by those it’s intended to influence.”

          Just the opposite, Bill. The dog whistle is meant to be heard by those it’s intended to influence.

          The idea is that the dog whistle is hidden in the wider message and resonates with a narrow and targeted segment of the audience. That’s why it wasn’t a dog whistle. It was open and nothing was hidden. If they had, say, said ‘we’ve got the names of the speculators but we’re not going to tell you, but, hint hint, it’s the Chinese’, that might meet the description.

          But while it can be argued that the release could have been done better, that would be more cock up, rather than conspiracy. It simply not a dog whistle. If it was, I’m sure Crosby/Textor would either sue or send a bill.

          Edit: a definition here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dog-whistle_politics

          • Bill 10.1.2.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 12:46 pm

            Hmm. Raising issues around housing affordability, and possibly expecting a bump in the polls to boot, by tapping into often subtle underlying anti-Chinese sentiment in the general population = dog-whistle, no?

            And if it doesn’t, then what is a term that describes such messaging?

            As I commented back to McFlock last night, both discussions – housing and xenophobia – need to be discussed. To say there was and is no xenophobic content to what Labour did is, as mentioned previously, precisely in line with all the gender debates where men routinely dismiss and shut down women protesting misogyny.

            edit (I can’t see it does not = it doesn’t exist)

            • Galeandra 10.1.2.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 1:26 pm

              What’s wrong with a good dose of xenophobia? I am a nationalist who doesn’t accept that NZers should subject jobs or land or enterprise or intellectual capital to the blind whims of the global market-place. Nor should we sacrifice environment on the altar of the economy.
              It is selfish self-interest that wants to grow our population to 7 million or more, at the same time as we can’t lift the bottom 20% of our existing communities out of a modern-day poverty trap.

              • Bob …
                28 July 2015 at 3:57 pm

                “I am a nationalist” looks like you consider yourself a ‘Socialist’ as well?
                There’s a shorter term for people like you…

              • Bill …
                28 July 2015 at 4:01 pm

                Erm, there is no such thing as a ‘good’ dose of xenophobia.

                If you object to people having their jobs, land, enterprise and whatever else being subject to the whims of the global market place, then your argument is essentially based on economics and is anti-capitalist.

                If you think that the environment shouldn’t be sacrificed at the alter of the economy, then again, your argument is basically ant–capitalist and possibly anti- command economy too.

                If you object to large amounts of poverty, then guess what? your argument is anti-capitalist, since it is the market economy (capitalism) that produces – in fact, guarantees – poverty.

                But if instead you want to blame people of other nationalities or ethnicities, you let those who profit from the market economy and who administer the market economy ‘off the hook’ and worse, wind up fighting against people who suffer the same as you and who are on the same side as you.

            • McFlock 10.1.2.1.1.2
              28 July 2015 at 4:02 pm

              there’s a difference between “racism” and “xenophobia”, btw.

              • Bill …
                28 July 2015 at 4:14 pm

                Yup, there is.

                But since there is only one race – the human race, and since nationality is, at least to some degree a self selected, and over time, shifting identity…

                It’s all crap really.

                Fear of ‘that over there’, where ‘that over there’ is the same as ‘us over here’ kind of describes the idiocy of it all, no?

    • lprent 10.2
      28 July 2015 at 12:24 pm

      The next roy morgan will probably be starting to collect data next week, and probably release around August 15th. There is likely to be the usually jiggling. But it will be interesting to infer what any effect was from that.

      Polls generally aren’t particularly useful to compare between polling companies. Their sampling techniques seem to vary quite a lot.

  11. Colonial Viper 11
    28 July 2015 at 10:48 am

    Jeeesus let me play the role of Toby Ziegler has no one here heard of tempting fucking fate?

    As Colin James said – the last time Labour was this high was March 2014. Does no one remember what happened just 6 months later.

    • te reo putake 11.1
      28 July 2015 at 10:55 am

      Yes, we do remember, CV! The leader you championed for a couple of years and reckoned was Labour’s saviour dipped out rather badly. That won’t be a problem this time… Andrew’s got this.

      • Colonial Viper 11.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 11:15 am

        Here’s hoping your faith is well placed; Little has to keep the unruly careerist elements of that caucus under close watch which he has succeeded at thus far.

      • maui 11.1.2
        28 July 2015 at 11:47 am

        If Little was the leader for the last election he would have lost as well. Little’s got the advantage/luck of being Leader when the cumulative effects of bad governance might have reached a turning point.

        • te reo putake 11.1.2.1
          28 July 2015 at 12:00 pm

          I disagree, maui. At the very least, Little would have had buy in from the fractious caucus, which would have undercut the ‘knives are out for the leader’ meme. And to be fair to Cunliffe, even though the party vote dropped, he was still only a point or two away from ruining John Key’s night.

          But, we’ll never know. Forward to the glorious future!

          • Colonial Viper 11.1.2.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 12:21 pm

            I disagree, maui. At the very least, Little would have had buy in from the fractious caucus,

            Nonsense, Little would have got less than 20% of the first round caucus vote had in stood for the leadership election in 2013. Even last time around

            • te reo putake 11.1.2.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 12:56 pm

              Sorry, CV, I’m just going on what we know, now that Little is leader, and what I know of him as person. He’s actually pretty good at leading a team. Nobody was discussing how he would have gone if he’d put up for leader against 3 others in the internal vote. We were discussing whether he would have done better than Cunliffe in the General Election. For the reasons I gave, I think he would have done better.

              • Skinny …
                28 July 2015 at 1:03 pm

                Yeah I agree, DC was always suspect to me him being religiously touched ( no offence to god bothera’s) 🙂

                • timbo …
                  28 July 2015 at 1:34 pm

                  @Skinny

                  Don’t forget Walter Nash (Anglican), David Lange (Methodist), Michael Joseph Savage (Catholic). Not all of us God-botherers are suspect!

                  • Skinny …
                    28 July 2015 at 1:46 pm

                    Point taken each to their own 🙂 I did like Helen Clark’s honesty she would confirm she was a non believer. Quite brave I thought.

          • greywarshark 11.1.2.1.2
            28 July 2015 at 7:18 pm

            TRP
            It’s nice that youre fair to Cunliffe.

        • Marvellous Bearded Git 11.1.2.2
          28 July 2015 at 12:31 pm

          …and the economy turning to custard…..and the ponytail…..

  12. Observer (Tokoroa) 12
    28 July 2015 at 11:55 am

    A large number of commentators on here are far from supportive of Labour. In fact, It appears as if the Greens have a strategy to demean and diminish the efforts of Labour.

    I am not going to list names. Nor am I surprised that the Greens wish to climb into the National bedding. They seem to have outdated upper class aspirations. National will feed them lil bites of poisoned fish .. which they will lap up.

    The best grouping for Labour would be NZ First. They have a passion for this nation and are in touch with the mood of the ordinary man. They also have Winston Peters whose observations and intellect runs rings around the Beehive collective.

    • Colonial Viper 12.1
      28 July 2015 at 12:24 pm

      Just tired of Labour being a centrist party focussed on tinkering with a neoliberal status quo.

      • Sabine 12.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 12:30 pm

        i think everyone by now has understood that. How about you extol the virtues of the party that you do support, so that maybe you gain more supporters for that party. Or are you having more fun just poopooing a party you don’t like? Its like, easier.

        • Colonial Viper 12.1.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 4:18 pm

          I’ve come to the conclusion that I am very cautious about party politics, Sabine. I see it as a compromised degradation of what politics for the people should be and needs to be about.

          • Clemgeopin 12.1.1.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 10:28 pm

            Start you own!
            ….Oops, forget it….too hard!

            You said a dozen people left Labour recently. May be go join them?

      • Clemgeopin 12.1.2
        28 July 2015 at 10:25 pm

        “Just tired of Labour being a centrist party focused on tinkering with a neo liberal status quo”

        I think you will need to quickly change your glasses which are a little better focused to make you see things clearly. Go see a homeopath, a chiropractor, a reiki specialist or oh, one of the hordes of the latest overseas magic faith healers swarming NZ.

    • Tracey 12.2
      28 July 2015 at 12:28 pm

      Whoa. For myself I wish for the days of Labour as it used to be, a representative of the vulnerable, the poorly paid, the unsafe work environments, the aspirations of all…

      I don’t know what you base your idea of there being a Green strategy to demean the Greens. Can you be more specific?

      I am surprised at anyone who thinks the Greens should or will climb into National’s bedding.

      NZF is very problematic. Winston is a throw back to the Muldoon days, at whose feet he worshipped. The national party used to have acaring side but it has always been with conservative conditions which is less open to change and clings to the status quo in many things, social and economic. The late Garth George is an example of this. Caring in some ways and quite nasty and shallow in their thinking in other ways.

      I have voted Greens in the last two elections. I want a stronger Labour but not if it means being National Lite. We have been pulled too far to the right to what I call the SELF centre…. which may be well populated but is not ideologically centre.

      • Sabine 12.2.1
        28 July 2015 at 12:36 pm

        When it comes to the poor, the under represented, the poorly paid, the unsafe work environments etc …the greens come across no better then the current labour party. In my books the Green will equally throw these under the bus/bicycle if need be.
        I am still waiting to here from one Green Member that reflects on what they could have better done in the last election, but I have heard a lot of Green Members telling us what the Labour Party should /could have done.

        And I am still waiting to meet that elusive Green Party Candidate in Te Atatu South. someone ran, but did not campaign towards the public. So I guess like the Candidate in Peter Fuckn Dunnes electorate they just ran someone to run someone.

        I think that all parties of the opposition should finally come to grips that alone they are worth nothing.
        AS sadly a third of NZ’lers are driven by greed and personal advancement, one third is so disillusioned with all the parties (inclusive the Greens) they can’t be arsed to vote at all, and one third is too fucking dumb to compromise and devise a strategy that might work for all.

        So there, the Green should finally get of that high bicycle of theirs and understand that it is not only the labour party that lost the last election, they did too….but hey, they got a cycleway, Peter Fuckn Dunne and Niki Kaye…i guess that counts for something. And to fucking hell the country.

        • Tracey 12.2.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 1:32 pm

          Wow, some of you need to start reading what Green MPs say and write rather than what people here say or don’t say.

          The Greens KNOW they lost an election. Anyone following their proposals, emails, speeches knows that.

          What amazes me is the finger pointing at Green Supporters (as you have done here) when Labour declared for NZF and ruled out the greens in the campaign… some of you seem to have convinced yourselves it is the other way around. As someone who voted Green I assume the party will need to work with the Labour Party, and probably someone else too… it’s many LP supporters who seem to have the problems with working with the greens, not the other way round.

          Still, dream your little dream Sabine, that the green supporters/members/party are evil Labour naysayers … just don’t wake up whatever you do, you will be very disappointed.

          • Sabine 12.2.1.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 2:05 pm

            i am subscribed to the Green Feeds, i sign their petitions, and I have read their only gushing about the Vicotry that was the cycle ways.

            And i have as much hope in the Greens as I have in the Labour Party. I have also voted for both parties depending on who needed my vote the most.

            But everytime I see Peter Fuckn Dunne fuck something up for the population in NZ i want to throw some rotten eggs and tomatoes at the Greens in his electorate. Cause he is the fucking gift that keeps on giving.

            I am also a Member of the Labour Party, because so I can give them grief, and according to Phil Twyford I am the most left leaning person he has met, and I would consider myself a socialist.

            For what it is worth, if the opposition parties don’t work together and stop rubbishing the other one…i.e. can’t trust Winston, Labour are all loosers and the Greenies are loonies, we are giving it away.

            In my dream the Parties would come together, agree to campaign and govern together and that includes the dreaded Winston Peters and NZFirst, as clearly if we don’t work together, we will go under.

        • Clemgeopin 12.2.1.2
          28 July 2015 at 10:37 pm

          ” I have heard a lot of Green Members telling us what the Labour Party should /could have done”

          +1

      • Ron 12.2.2
        28 July 2015 at 2:41 pm

        I have a feeling that the Greens may beat Labour in the race to the right.

        I have voted Greens in the last two elections…

    • greywarshark 12.3
      28 July 2015 at 7:28 pm

      @ Observer
      I have observed other comments you make, and it appears that your observations are fairly consistently off the mark. I don’t know what the media is like in Tokoroa or how robust the political discussion, but here it is quite reasonable as far as gaining a good idea of current and past events.

      So why don’t you drop in more, then you’ll know that the Greens are not in with National though they will see if they can twist National’s arm to do some of the responsible environmental initiatives that would help the public and the whole country. and play our part as a supposedly developed nation.

      There are things you think about Labour needing to get better strategies. Other people here think that too along different lines to you. They are a political party supposedly representing the ‘ordinary’ man and woman, not gods who never make mistakes.

    • Clemgeopin 12.4
      28 July 2015 at 9:35 pm

      “National will feed them lil bites of poisoned fish”

      And some drops of whale oil too ?

  13. Observer (Tokoroa) 13
    28 July 2015 at 12:54 pm

    Hi CV

    Not one of the three opposition parties could build a Government without support.

    I agree that Labour must open up its windows to fresh air. If only to finally erase the Douglas madness and the sort of stupidity that removed a leader of the calibre of David Cunliffe.

    Therefore each of the three Opposition parties must in my opinion, begin to put together joint commonsense policy – endorsed by each party. There is no reason why these policy initiatives could not be ATTRACTIVE and INTERESTING! Capable of closing out stale old ruminations..

    Delivered with tripartite energy and enthusiasm, the policies might even make the rut encased Media to forget its all too predictable hogwash.

    • Hami Shearlie 13.1
      28 July 2015 at 3:42 pm

      I agree with your comments about David Cunliffe – he was the most intelligent articulate leader Labour had had for a good while – still think he should be in that job – Little is wasting Cunliffe’s considerable talents at the moment.

      • Colonial Viper 13.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 6:47 pm

        Cunliffe needed time to develop into the Labour Leader that he could be. Plenty of others in caucus were determined not to give him that time.

        Those MPs are still there in caucus, and Little has very limited leverage against them.

        • Hami Shearlie 13.1.1.1
          29 July 2015 at 9:17 am

          True – there are some very selfish older members of parliament in the Labour caucus right now – petty personal gripes against David Cunliffe won out over what was best for the party and the country.

    • Colonial Viper 13.2
      28 July 2015 at 6:46 pm

      Observer (Tokoroa) – that is the kind of MMP maturity that we need from the Opposition parties, and which happens all the time in Europeam countries.

    • Tautoko Mangō Mata 13.3
      28 July 2015 at 9:21 pm

      +1 @Observer (Tokoroa) “Therefore each of the three Opposition parties must in my opinion, begin to put together joint commonsense policy – endorsed by each party.”

      Instead of scrapping, maybe we could be more constructive by putting forward ideas on policies that could be suitable to be presented as joint policies by Labour, Green and NZ First.

  14. Puckish Rogue 14
    28 July 2015 at 1:15 pm

    Has there been an explanation as to why the internal polling seems to be quite different to other polls (Roy Morgans excepted)

  15. Cullennz 15
    28 July 2015 at 1:30 pm

    I still think NZF won’t go with anything involving the greens, so I think even if true the poll numbers aren’t enough

    • Puckish Rogue 15.1
      28 July 2015 at 2:04 pm

      I guess it comes down to Winstons ego

      Labour/NZFirst/Green or National/NZFirst and who can offer him the best deal

  16. Michael who failed Civics 16
    28 July 2015 at 1:45 pm

    So Labour can win office without needing to either restate or redevelop its founding principles? Good luck with that.

  17. Michael 17
    28 July 2015 at 2:06 pm

    Glad to hear this. I think Little’s been doing a great job of growing Labour’s party vote. However, the important part is that Labour are taking votes off National – not just redistributive the collective left vote. Due to the nature of MMP, winning over swing voters is the only way for a victory for the *left*. Sure: moving left, adopting more socialist rhetoric, and having a truly left-wing programme might be great for Labour’s party vote. It might fire up the base. That’s all true. But where will those votes come from? The Greens. It might lead to a ‘victory’ for Labour – if it takes 5% off the Greens, it might grow the Labour vote.
    But the swing voters will go back to National, or perhaps NZ First which is no reliable partner for a progressive govt. I think in the multi-party system where parties *work together*, the role of Labour is to be the big centre-left party: not extremely radical, and attractive to a broad swath of the population. Of course, this doesn’t mean Labour should be a spineless neoliberal National-lite party, but it’s vital that Labour attracts votes beyond its base. It should be pragmatic.
    And then the Greens can work on being the principled, left-wing party. Let’s say the Greens make it to 15%, and Labour continues to attract swing voters and makes it to 38%. That’s the numbers for a progressive govt right there. Since parties work together, we end up with a solidly progressive government, but the numbers to get there are pragmatic.

    • Clemgeopin 17.1
      28 July 2015 at 11:00 pm

      +1.
      Going by the comments here, the Greens or their supporters don’t seem to understand that.

  18. infused 18
    28 July 2015 at 2:15 pm

    If the Greens were smart, they’d go with National and sink Labour once in for all.

    • McFlock 18.1
      28 July 2015 at 2:19 pm

      Just like the Maori Party stuck it to ’em in ’08, eh.

      Your strategic thinking is remarkable. Thanks for your concern.

    • Jones 18.2
      28 July 2015 at 4:52 pm

      Greens going with National would be political suicide. And as we’ve seen, Labour is capable of sinking itself… doesn’t need any help.

      I’m looking forward to the National Party entering it’s own political hiatus when it eventually loses Government… it’s only a matter of time… but by then Key will have scarpered and be safely installed in some corner office on Wall Street, quietly awaiting his knighthood for services to the banksters.

  19. Observer (Tokoroa) 19
    28 July 2015 at 2:16 pm

    Tracey

    I have a deep respect for your writing.

    I am alarmed however that your past leader and the new leader have both expressed interest in supporting National. As the Maori party have found out, you will end up in a death roll.

    My own view, is that the three opposition parties, should get together now to forge bonds with whatever difficulty. Each keeping their vision and their philosophy and policy. For none of them will gain Government without the others.

    The remarkable achievement of the Labour Party back in the past, was the striking individual temperament of its parliamentarians (unlike the subservient nobodies of the present Government) yet its overall unity. Michael Savage, Walter Nash; Bob Semple; Arnold Nordmeyer; Peter Fraser. Each so different.

    They believed in free Education. Equality of Opportunity. Fairness at work. Jack as good as his Master.

    They built not only aspiration within the population, but huge infrastructure. They rolled the Conservative class system so beloved of Key and Boag and Bennett.

    They proved that voluble difference is not a weakness but a strength. They built a great stock of housing that still stands in many suburbs and are eagerly sought after because of the inbuilt quality. Bob Semple went to prison twice for supporting workers issues.

    I would hope that the Opposition in today’s parliament could achieve the same.

    I wish I could express my words better Tracey.

    • Sabine 19.1
      28 July 2015 at 5:11 pm

      you expressed it perfectly,

      we need to work together, or else we die.

    • Foreign waka 19.2
      28 July 2015 at 7:35 pm

      And they had … guts and no fear because not succeeding would have meant hat NZ gets what it has gotten in the end.

  20. Nick Morris 20
    28 July 2015 at 2:24 pm

    There is stupidity, selfishness and self-righteousness, sure. But let’s start from the position that all voters are trying to do the right thing or if we win we will lose anyway.
    The current government has given permission for people to only consider their own advantage.
    To counter that they must be told that it is still okay to be altruistic.
    Most people would rather leave the place better than they found it. Anyway, I will go on believing that until the contrary is proven.
    If you start from the base that the voters and current non-voters, the workers and those who need benefits to survive, all ages and ethnicities, all sexual orientateds, all income groups, all are neither better nor worse than you are. All are friends you are yet to meet and fellow travellers yet to be convinced. With this optic you will do way better than dismissing all but your own doppelgangers.

  21. Blue Horseshoe 21
    28 July 2015 at 2:24 pm

    Once the TTPA has been signed with LP endorsement, what exactly would a LP lead government be able to positively impact…

    It’s going to have to be taken back, not voted in

  22. Nick Morris 22
    28 July 2015 at 2:26 pm

    Blue H
    The Nats have the numbers. Get used to it. They don’t need Labour.

    • Blue Horseshoe 22.1
      28 July 2015 at 2:42 pm

      No shit Sherlock

      Getting used to NZ becoming a waste bin vassel state is not something any political party is designed for or prepared to prevent.

      They actively create it, and the people vote for their own demise

      But not before those on the rungs below them have been dealt with

      Its game over if the TPPA is signed

      • Jones 22.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 4:53 pm

        It’s not game over, it means the options available to the people to repeal the TPPA are severely limited.

  23. Matthew Hooton 23
    28 July 2015 at 2:57 pm

    I hear secret National Party polling shows the opposite.

    • McFlock 23.1
      28 July 2015 at 3:02 pm

      Nah. Judith or Stevo would have leaked it to slater quicker than you can say “leadership challenge”.

      Mind you, there’s always the chance someone will turn up to a flag meeting…

    • Skinny 23.2
      28 July 2015 at 3:24 pm

      I hear Key told his wife while in Hawaii he has had enough and wants out after the TPPA is signed and his flagship legacy the flag is changed. Got the odd bit of ribbing over the ponytail thing while on holiday I heard.

      Probably go for Brownlee as caretaker PM till the election I’m predicting.

      Hope you have been doing some hill training up and down no tree hill and Cornwall park Hooton. Might stand you in good stead so ya don’t breakdown in London.

      • Matthew Hooton 23.2.1
        28 July 2015 at 3:39 pm

        Are you spying on me or something???

        • Michael who failed Civics 23.2.1.1
          28 July 2015 at 3:58 pm

          Lefties don’t spy on people. We leave all that to the fascist right.

        • Skinny 23.2.1.2
          28 July 2015 at 4:06 pm

          Cut it out Hooton my sister who lives on Gardner rd has been complaining about some pest jogger stalking her as she runs around the the outskirts of Cornwall park. From the description she gave me sounded very much like you. Tallish middle aged white male with silver hair, mutters alot “fuck you left loonies” as she glides on past him. She calls him the slow coach Silver Fox.

          She is fit and fast though, surfer girl.

          • Matthew Hooton 23.2.1.2.1
            28 July 2015 at 4:30 pm

            Slow coach definitely accurate intel!
            (Certainly more so than any rumours of “internal polling”)

            • Skinny 23.2.1.2.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 5:54 pm

              Take it easy jogging around that there no tree hill, the last time I ran that circuit I ended up pairing up with a beauful young blonde who gave me an inferiority complex. Not only could she run faster and longer than me, but when she invited for a game of tennis and a swim at the Greenlane hospital she thrashed me in straight sets at tennis and lapped me in 5 lengths of the pool. It was the start of a very enjoyable relationship, all be it she was a tough competitor.

      • Jones 23.2.2
        28 July 2015 at 4:49 pm

        I have heard something similar re Key having had enough. If the drop in polling turns into a trend, he’ll be gone… he won’t hang around to contest the election.

        • McFlock 23.2.2.1
          28 July 2015 at 5:02 pm

          Last time those rumours were going around about key, the tory shills said it was wishful thinking. Then Roughan’s book came out, and waddya know – he was close to quitting.

          Currently the dude can’t even pretend to care about the job. He’s always been “relaxed”, but now he just doesn’t have any fucks to give.

      • whateva next? 23.2.3
        28 July 2015 at 6:51 pm

        Aye, except Bennet, not Brownlee?
        I was wondering if Key was going to aim to shift capital to Auckland as his swansong, but I agree, he’s had enough, and his numbers are slipping.
        TPPA will be his final F***you NZ

        • Skinny 23.2.3.1
          28 July 2015 at 7:25 pm

          Brownlee was a joke cobbah. Probably be English till election year then Bertha takes over the helm of the sinking ship. My worst fear is Collins get a hold of the reins and steers radically right, flogging off and a forced privatisation of anything left.

          • Colonial Viper 23.2.3.1.1
            28 July 2015 at 7:36 pm

            I reckon the same; English wants his tilt at PM (and all the life long resulting perks).

            I also wonder if he would agree to do Finance Minister under Bennett.

            Collins would be a disaster for the nation, and for our politics.

            • Skinny 23.2.3.1.1.1
              28 July 2015 at 8:18 pm

              Interesting as they have been grooming her for finance which makes me wonder if the old boys network see her as hitting the glass ceiling at 2iC to someone like Joyce. Mind you the full effects of the huge debt they have lumbered the next generation, and the rub of signing us into the TPPA could see a mass evacuation of the senior mismanagement of the Nat caucus if they slide dramatically into the political abyss as the glazed over eyes of the tricked public finally start focusing.

    • dukeofurl 23.3
      28 July 2015 at 3:51 pm

      So thats why Key has raised all sorts of ‘answers” to increasing numbers foreign buyers?

      Secret polling telling him its a waste of time ?

      land tax Stamp duty,

      these are NOT words that have passed his lips previously, indeed anything that has the word tax without the word cut is banned in the Key lexicon.

      It can only mean nationals polling is even more dire than that from labour.

  24. Observer (Tokoroa) 24
    28 July 2015 at 3:10 pm

    To Nick Morris

    Good words … ” The current government has given permission for people to only consider their own advantage.”

    Nothing lasts of an individual. But great Wonders can be created by Communities.

    • Clean_power 24.1
      28 July 2015 at 3:22 pm

      Have you heard of Newton, Einstein, Beethoven, Leonardo, Rutherford, Kepler, Leibnitz, Maxwell?

      • McFlock 24.1.1
        28 July 2015 at 3:42 pm

        And yet nobody knows who had the idea of the Nasca lines. And the pyramids are known globally, while the name Imhotep is not nearly so famous.

      • Colonial Viper 24.1.2
        28 July 2015 at 4:02 pm

        Have you heard of Newton, Einstein, Beethoven, Leonardo, Rutherford, Kepler, Leibnitz, Maxwell?

        People who worked in Government institutions, orchestras, and in collaboration with other scientists and the knowledge that other scientists had uncovered.

        Co-operative and community efforts all, allowing true leadership to be expressed.

      • Phil 24.1.3
        28 July 2015 at 4:28 pm

        Maxwell

        The ‘Big Show’ is an excellent middle-order batsman and handy spinner on favourable pitches, but even his ego is not so big as to compare himself to some of the greatest scientists of the modern world.

      • Adele 24.1.4
        28 July 2015 at 11:22 pm

        Kiaora Clean_power

        Have you heard of Newton, Einstein, Beethoven, Leonardo, Rutherford, Kepler, Leibnitz, Maxwell?

        Last I heard they were all dead white men.

        Edit: The link above doesn’t work so here it is again

        http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/in-defence-of-dead-white-men

  25. Observer (Tokoroa) 25
    28 July 2015 at 4:15 pm

    Hi Clean Power

    Funnily enough I am listening to Beethoven currently. His third Symphony The Eroica. His last Symphony No 9 was written for the concept of Brotherhood.

    Do you know what Brotherhood is?

    Newton the great Physicist was also an intense thinker on spirit and Human Kind.

    But as you are aware, if nobody listens to Beethoven his music is silent. If nobody takes the principles of Newton and uses them …then his work is as nothing.

    Leibnitz was another great thinker on matter and spirit ….. but of course it is nothing if the community does not take up and build.

    I admire you entire list. All of your list depend on thinking that went on before them . That is what community is .The elbow cannot say to the arm I have no need of thee.

    But please give more money to the wealthy Mr Clean. Enjoy your reclusive one and only self. All greedy people make one huge mistake don’t they?. They think they did it themself. Them only, all by their self. Immature to the end.

    • Anne 25.1
      28 July 2015 at 9:57 pm

      But as you are aware, if nobody listens to Beethoven his music is silent.

      Thank-you for reminding me I haven’t listened to one of the most beautiful symphonies of all time – Beethoven’s sixth Symphony The Pastoral – in quite a long time. On my agenda tomorrow. 🙂

  26. Foreign waka 26
    28 July 2015 at 7:24 pm

    Just catched unwittingly Hr Hosking talking about the TTP. OMG, if stupidity would hurt he would be screening all day. He compares the TTP to the WTO. And this man is allowed to through his propaganda during peak viewing time to the wider public.

    • ianmac 26.1
      28 July 2015 at 9:56 pm

      Pretty awful Hosking! In spite of evidence to the contrary he rambled on denying the gravity of TPP. Pippa and tonight Toni seem to be just tolerating him like a bright young thing tolerating an old man.

  27. Observer (Tokoroa) 27
    28 July 2015 at 10:46 pm

    Anne

    Wow! Anne your tomorrow will be fabulous if you play Beethoven’s Symphony No 6 “The Pastoral” !

    Beethoven was so aware that we each inexplicably emerge from Nature without knowing how or why or when or for whom. That we are subject to fearful storms mental and physical.

    But that we are called to equilibrium, to symmetry and to beauty and to caring. He, in the increasing isolation of deafness, yet gave thanks for this world. The fourth movement of The Pastoral is very likely the greatest secular hymn ever penned.

    Note: On the question of property Beethoven came out with a great line. His brother, a Pharmacist, had written to him from Linz saying that he had bought an Apothecary shop and was doing well. he signed his letter:

    Nikolaus Johann van Beethoven
    Property Owner.

    Beethoven wrote replying with congrats … and signed his letter

    Ludwig van Beethoven
    Brain Owner