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notices and features - Date published:
2:32 pm, October 3rd, 2013 - 27 comments
Categories: activism, greens, humour, labour, national, Politics, polls, Satire -
Tags: clayton cosgrove, imperator fish, roy morgan, trevor mallard
In the wake of the astounding victory of the NZ team in San Diego, Scott at Imperator Fish offers these words of sage advice. He has kindly given us permission to syndicate posts from his blog – the original of this post is here.
The latest two political polls have revealed that Labour and the Greens will win the next election.
I’m always a bit cautious about political polls, but two polls in a row? That’s a major trend.
And even if the next Roy Morgan poll (which must be due out soon) shows a dip in Labour’s fortunes, two polls out of three is still a trend.
But that’s not what the Roy Morgan poll will say. Labour down? Won’t happen. Can’t you feel it? The electricity? The excitement? These two polls confirm what everyone I know has been telling me. Pretty much every Labour and Green person I’ve spoken to has told me they’ve had it with John Key.
In the coming weeks and months we’ll be told by our leaders on the left that there’s still much work to be done, that polls go up and down, and that we can’t afford to get ahead of ourselves.
Well they’re wrong, of course. It’s in the bag. I’m so confident that we’ve got it won that I can’t really see any more point in offering my services to the Labour Party, at least until after the election. Why waste all that energy when there’s no way we can blow it from here? They won’t even need people like me to stick flyers in letterboxes, and I really can’t see the party bothering to put up any hoardings during the election campaign. I may even urge people to vote National, just to give the suckers a fighting chance. The poor bastards.
It’s a wonderful feeling, knowing that the only question now remaining about the next election is how much we’ll win it by.
If you had asked me a couple of weeks ago what our chances were I would have been pessimistic. I would have pointed to the Labour Party’s astonishing ability to turn victory into defeat, and I would have scoffed at any prediction of Labour victory in 2014.
But not now. This is different. All the stars are in alignment. Everyone now loves Labour. They can do no wrong. The Labour caucus is filled with lovely and remarkable people. I may even learn to love Clayton Cosgrove. Come on, Clayton, give us a big hug! Aw, you too, Trev!
So please, party activists, stop wasting your energy. It’s won. No, really. Look, if you will insist on changing the world then why not rescue some distressed animals, or donate blood? It’s won, and you’re starting now to look like a bit of a try-hard. Don’t you think all your earnest efforts are getting a bit embarrassing?
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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There is truth in the saying that trying too hard evokes negative outcomes. Each person does well to be true to his or her inner Being in the Now. Results will come.
I saw Sue Moroney in the supermarket the other night, and when I congratulated her on her voting for DC and resultant promotion, she said thanks, and that the whole party has been lifted and re-energised by his victory.
I can’t help but sense NZ is feeling it a bit too.
Lots to work on, and I’m sure nobody will be complacent about it, but it is a trend and looking good.
I often see Anne Tolley in the supermarket but I avoid making eye contact as I am afraid I might elicit a smile from her (a vote for me smile). Sorry National, but I am Labour to the bone. And great news regarding the above article and the new poll.
Even if she’s pushing one I’ll believe she’s off her Trolley.
Don’t make eye contact unless you want to be turned to stone.
Homer, not Simpson wrote
“Lest for my daring Persephone the dread,
From Hades should send up an awful monster’s grisly head.”
Careful – a lot of people here have got Pauline Kael syndrome (finding it hard to believe Nixon had won in ’72, as no one she knew had voted for him).
Of course there were plenty of people who said the same thing in 2011…
Satire, properly done, is a good way to send a message. Scott Yorke is a good satirist.
We should have compassion for poor Matty Hoots after his tragic melt down on RNZ. You see, every now and then a pollie comes along who’s got what it takes and Labour has found such a pollie. Look what happened to the members and affiliates. One speech and one flash of that cheeky Cunliffe smile and most were goners. Now Matty boy knows there’s every chance that will be repeated when the voters at large get to see Cunliffe in operation. Hence his big brain fart and there’s lots more coming…
Edit: every time I wish to comment I have to fill in my details. Getting to be a nuisance.
Anne – I always feel sorry for Little Hoot! 😈
And to the question that many may ask , “Will You Ever Grow Up Little Hoot” – I guess the answer would have to be a big fat “NO”!
I had the same thing on my first comment – seems OK now though.
there is plenty to do unregistered voters to sign up extra hording sites general intelligence gathiering strategic campaigns its all hands onboard and starts sooner with the referendom kicking it all off
Yep – and add in policy development, candidate selection, list ranking, Conference, Christchurch East by-election. There is a tremendous amount to be done to organise & build toward the General Election (& beyond) – much of which should have been done over the last few years and now has to be squeezed into 12-14 months.
Is it true that clare curran is resigning to join hootens consultancy?
Maybe it’s just me, but I believe in democracy and I can’t view the General Election as a horse race or sporting contest, to be won or lost. I won’t prejudge how the electors will cast their ballot as far away as 12 months from now. If Labour has the policies which resonate with most electors real needs, puts them out there in time for people to recognise their worth, and helps supporters to organise a grand turn-out, there will be a popular effect. That swelling wave of voting citizens, propelled by hope, will deliver a Parliament favourable for social progress in these islands. Meanwhile there’s plenty of campaigning to go on with.
Cheers.
I’ll be the first to celebrate if the vile little dictator gets toppled but lets wait and see. Meantime DONT BE COMPLACENT!!!
So how is a New Zealand Prime Minister a dictator?
Never heard of of the “elected dictatorship”. Why do you think we voted in MMP. Futile gesture but was worth a try…
Ok. I was labouring under the impression that the last election was carried out using MMP.
Hence the use of the words “futile gesture”.
“Elected dictatorship” refers to the fact that, regardless of the opinions of the citizenry, the elected government can legalise warrantless interception of citizens’ communications, remove the defendant’s intent or even the defendant’s actual actions from the consideration of guilt for certain “crimes” against foreign conglomerates, and sell assets regardless of the citizenry’s wishes as clearly expressed via referendum.
The managerial swaparoo of the past 30 years has (set rhinocrates on them if it’s not the case) gone now. That’s the difference. And in the twelve months from now to then, that’s all that needs to be highlighted. So yeah…it’s in the bag.
Is this comment for real? labour are nowhere near out of the woods and the stunt with the 23 year old wanting to buy a $500,000 house ? Not sure if that came across very well. What about those about to get their homes bulldozed, what about those with no homes? Get back to the grass roots I say and leave the centre to worry about their $500,000 purchases. It’s not as if they don’t know who they will vote for and they will vote
+1 dead right
Yup. The comment is ‘for real’. (excuse me if your comment was in reference to the satirical post and not my comment) There has been, I believe, a fundamental shift in NZs social democratic political environment. And as more people become aware of that, they will re-engage and make demands on the back of that change. So sure, it requires work to get the word out. But that’s somewhat easier than convincing people to be enthusiastic over some change the managerial style to be applied to the formally unquestioned neo-liberal consensus.
As for the $500 000 house buyer….so what? Why can’t such a person be brought ‘on board’?
Maybe you believe politics have to be about ‘either/or’ rather than about ‘this/and’?
Sure the $500,000 purchaser should be brought on board but
i need to be brought on board as well. Would have been great to see public acknowledgement of what is happening with the proposed Auckland motorway. Haven’t seen that yet. Labour has the ability to make a broad sweep – centre to left. Shouldn’t get caught up in one place. The housing crisis is in part a crisis for those who want to buy homes in the more ‘acceptable’ suburbs. I am watching and waiting to see who was lying and who was telling the truth. It should be clear soon.
Bill I am not against encouraging a 23 year who is able to afford a $500,000 investment property to vote for Labour. While in the same city the city council is wanting to bulldoze people’s houses to make way for a motorway. It may not be high finance and only focused on people who do not have the means to purchase any house, there was still the opportunity or Labour show support for these people. They too could also be new Labour voters. No one’s convincing me to return to the fold – yet – but I am watching and waiting for real evidence of Labour’s intentions.
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