Polls and rogues

Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments
Categories: polls - Tags: , , ,

The most recent Roy Morgan was good news for the left:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a substantial fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 40.5% (down 3.5% since March 11-24, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%).

Support for Labour is 35.5% (up 1%); Greens are 13.5% (up 0.5%), New Zealand First 5% (up 2%), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the Labour Party with minor party support would win an Election if held now.

Vernon Small, who seems to be well informed, commented:

The numbers for the three biggest party are in line with internal polling by Labour, a source said. But the party has been reluctant to publicly release the data, waiting first to see it the shift away from National is confirmed by two polls expected this weekend from TV3 and TVNZ.

Tonight the TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll is roughly consistent with the Roy Morgan, but the TV3 Reid poll (no link yet and I’m off – someone add it in comments) paints a different picture. They can’t both be right (I think one of them is from planet Key).

Given that Roy Morgan and TVNZ (and if Small is correct internal polling) are compatible, I’m going to call the 3 News poll a rogue. (No doubt the political right will be trying to spin it the other way – I’ll be interested to see them try it!)

Note that sampling for these polls means that none of them will yet reflect any response to the Labour / Green electricity reform proposals.

 

[Updated by karol]  TV3 News poll.

99 comments on “Polls and rogues ”

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  1. logie97 1
    21 April 2013 at 6:19 pm

    And Shearer’s apparent response… “… oh John Key is just talking out of his mouth…” in response to Key’s criticism of the Left. WTF.

    • BM 1.1
      21 April 2013 at 6:22 pm

      Yeah, lol, he butchered that one.

      • Anne 1.1.1
        21 April 2013 at 6:38 pm

        Yes, that was funny. Hate to agree with BM but there you go…

        It’s so obvious what he was about to say then thought better of it.

        What he should have said is: “John Key’s talking out of a hole in his head”.

        • BM 1.1.1.1
          21 April 2013 at 7:06 pm

          Or even the non offensive
          “John Key’s talking out of his rear end again”

        • geoff 1.1.1.2
          21 April 2013 at 7:11 pm

          If he’d actually said ‘John Key is talking out his arse’, it probably would have helped Labour in the polls

          • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.2.1
            21 April 2013 at 7:23 pm

            +1

            There are half a million stay at home Labour voters out there waiting for proof that Shearer eats red meat.

          • Anne 1.1.1.2.2
            21 April 2013 at 7:27 pm

            If he’d actually said ‘John Key is talking out his arse’, it probably would have helped Labour in the polls.

            TV news would have blipped it out… but on the other hand everyone would have known what he had said and that would have been a positive – except for the humourless. And who cares about them.

            • Colonial Viper 1.1.1.2.2.1
              21 April 2013 at 7:30 pm

              Not that you want to copy Key’s style…but Key’s shown that NZers know the difference between a light hearted remark and a presidential declaration

            • ianmac 1.1.1.2.2.2
              21 April 2013 at 7:41 pm

              I assumed that Mr Shearer meant that Key “was talking out of his err… arse.” But swerved at the last moment to say “mouth.” Pretty clear to me – unless some want to put a negative spin whatever he says.

              • Colonial Viper …
                21 April 2013 at 7:50 pm

                We all know what Shearer apparently meant to say.

              • karol …
                21 April 2013 at 7:52 pm

                It’s all in the delivery. Shearer just looked as though he’d started to say something disparaging, then didn’t know how to finish it.

                If he’d delivered the line confidently, with a dramatic pause and a twinkle in his eye, he’d probably have scored with it.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  21 April 2013 at 9:06 pm

                  The same line, hesitation and all, coming from Winston would have indeed worked

    • gobsmacked 1.2
      21 April 2013 at 6:26 pm

      Labour and the Greens will win the election, unless they commit electoral suicide. Shearer IS that suicide.

      The satisfaction tonight lasted approximately three minutes. The One News poll was good, the 3 News less so, but even Key’s numbers were down in that one.

      Then … the alternative Prime Minister spoke, and the nation laughed.

      The voters are seeing through Key and National. Their support is fading. All the opposition needs is a leader, not an embarrassment. David Shearer, if you care about your country and your people, please do the right thing. Soon.

    • Aotearoean 1.3
      21 April 2013 at 6:39 pm

      For fuck’s sake

    • felix 1.4
      21 April 2013 at 7:07 pm

      Did I ever tell you about the man who taught his asshole to talk? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJ-p1wGv5rw

    • Enough is Enough 1.5
      22 April 2013 at 10:45 am

      There is the issue.

      Lets jump forward 14 months to the election debates.

      This country is depending on Shearer in what will be a series of the most important debates this country has ever had.

      Shearer under the blow torch from a desperate Key and a hostile media.

      Can we trust him to actually articulate a sentence in the English language or deliver a punchline. How is he going to sell an image for the future without Russel holding his hand.

      Shall we just give him another 6 months???

      Seriously this is too importnant for you to fuck up Shearer. SHARPEN UP

  2. ghostrider888 2
    21 April 2013 at 6:21 pm

    Yep.
    Colmar Brunton
    N-43(worst polling in 7 years)
    L-36
    G-13
    (62 Seats to Lab / Green)

    Reid Rubbish
    N-49
    L-3O.2
    G-11.5

    yet Key down 5 in the C.B and down in the Reid

    • Paul 2.1
      21 April 2013 at 6:25 pm

      Links?

    • Colonial Viper 2.2
      21 April 2013 at 6:29 pm

      yet Key down 5 in the C.B and down in the Reid

      Did Shearer move up in the Reid?

      • gobsmacked 2.2.1
        21 April 2013 at 6:32 pm

        No. Shearer’s numbers aren’t up in either poll.

        • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1
          21 April 2013 at 6:42 pm

          CB says a massive 26% now undecided as to who they want to be PM. They aren’t going to Shearer.

          • QoT 2.2.1.1.1
            21 April 2013 at 8:07 pm

            Nah, give him six more months.

            Again.

          • vto 2.2.1.1.2
            22 April 2013 at 8:17 am

            That is a stat to watch. Methinks it reflects even greater numbers of people who have cottoned onto Key’s lies and his snake oil salesman ways. They don’t trust him and see that he is simply a bullshitter but they haven’t yet solidified their support away from the Nats yet. When they do (and they will because Key is unable to stop lying and talking bullshit) the numbers for the Nats will plummet. 2c

    • McFlock 2.3
      21 April 2013 at 6:55 pm

      9% diffesrences between polls ?
      I’ll lean towards the more regular and less biased one.
      Which isn’t reid research.

  3. mickysavage 3
    21 April 2013 at 6:28 pm

    Reid Research have always been a bit of an outlier favouring the Government.

    As a humble activist can I say I am really pleased with the last week’s poll results. The Government is on the slide and you can see it in the desperation that has entered Key’s manner.

    • Anne 3.1
      21 April 2013 at 6:44 pm

      Yes, he’s now trying to present Labour as the far Left. Said it three times. Is that their election campaign strategy? Reminds me of those photos of the Mars terrain. Barren and lifeless.

      • Colonial Viper 3.1.1
        21 April 2013 at 6:54 pm

        What the hell is up with National lately? Have they not paid their Crosby Textor invoice?

        • karol 3.1.1.1
          21 April 2013 at 6:56 pm

          Yes, Key and supporters should be careful – they could end up giving socialism and the “far left” a good name.

  4. Craig Glen viper 4
    21 April 2013 at 6:28 pm

    The polls are what they are what Labour needs to do is have Shearer go on the attack.
    On TV 3 tonight his thinking on his feet attack line was ” Key speaks out his mouth”
    Really David Shearer that was the best you could come up with? What about some comment about Keys lack of memory or the probability that he will need to make a statement of clarification tomorrow.
    Oh no thats right you cant cos you forgot about that bank account, oh well you did your best then ( yawn)

    • Mary 4.1
      22 April 2013 at 11:37 am

      It’s gaffes like this one that shows Shearer isn’t up for the job. Just watch him get ribbed to death over it when they’re back in the House next. This one mightn’t be too serious but it’s just a matter of when not if he makes far more serious clangers when he’s PM. He’s just too much of a risk. His legacy as a bumbling buffoon has been established even before he’s started in the job. Labour need to ditch him now while there’s time. Look at the mess Labor’s in at the moment with Gillard and an election looming. We’ll be in the same position very soon.

  5. The Al1en 5
    21 April 2013 at 6:31 pm

    One can only imagine, with Key imploding like he is, what numbers Labour would be getting with a proper leader, worthy of the title.

    Still very much fail territory for camp abc.

    • ghostrider888 5.1
      21 April 2013 at 6:37 pm

      that is a very broad conclusion A. (concede, DS is a little slow thinking on his feet by appearances; Gareth Hughes was faster)

  6. Mike 6
    21 April 2013 at 6:34 pm

    It probably wasn’t the best that Shearer came up with, rather it was the five second soundbite that the editor of the piece chose to use from the minutes of footage they had,because it served their narrative.
    TV1 did a similar thing for Key by showing the footage of the Nathan Guy and electric fence incident.

    • ghostrider888 6.1
      21 April 2013 at 6:38 pm

      that is an interesting consideration Mike

      • Craig Glen viper 6.1.1
        21 April 2013 at 6:55 pm

        Bullshit Ghostrider he should never give a shit comment for them to use if that is indeed the case. When are people going to wake up Labour are not going to win with Shearer he is an idiot, a gimp. Shearer will fall over his own bloody shadow at any given moment and Keys going thank God they have Shearer.

    • karol 6.2
      21 April 2013 at 6:50 pm

      Yes, there’s always that. But it means not giving them the option of using a lame line.

  7. Paul 7
    21 April 2013 at 6:52 pm

    Mike’s comment reminded of the documentary Shadows of Liberty at the documentary festival. The media is owned by big corporates and the left should not be relying on it to provide an unbalanced story. Spokespeople for the left should, especially when dealing with journalists with a clear right wing bias, take on these puppet hosts and not be too timid.
    Once in power, reform of the media should be an urgent priority to undo the damage caused to democracy by the media falling into the hands of large corporations.

    • gobsmacked 7.1
      21 April 2013 at 6:59 pm

      Fair enough, but irrelevant to Shearer’s problem. You can listen to his full interviews online (eg Bfm, Radio Live, Firstline). The incoherence is not isolated, it’s the norm. It’s who he is.

      He may be a great guy but his brain isn’t wired for communication, any more than my body is wired for ballet. Labour can face that now or later. But face it they must.

      • Paul 7.1.1
        21 April 2013 at 7:09 pm

        I agree with you. Indeed, knowing that the media is likely to be hostile, makes it even more important that the party leader(s) are strong and united, strong, fluent and stick to principles.
        Labour need someone as coherent and as on message as Norman.
        It is something that needs to be faced in 2013, not 2014.

  8. Michael 8
    21 April 2013 at 6:58 pm

    “Bugger the pollsters” – surely Jim Bolger’s only enduring contribution to NZ’s political history. IMHO, polling is becoming steadily less reliable, for a variety of reasons. At most, I think polls can only provide a rough guide to the electorate’s political sentiments. Anyway, good politics is about leading public opinion, not following it.

      • Alanz 8.1.1
        21 April 2013 at 11:39 pm

        The current Labour leadership seems to be opting for fumbling and stumbling after public opinion (the mumbling is now under a bit of better control and has modified into a slight hesitant pause).

  9. jaymam 9
    21 April 2013 at 7:52 pm

    If TV3 had wanted to appear competent, they should have mentioned that the other two recent polls disagreed completely with their poll.
    In fact TV3 made such a bad job of tonight’s news I might change to watch TV1.
    Unfortunately the lead item was the same on both channels.

    • karol 9.1
      21 April 2013 at 7:57 pm

      Agreed. I thought Gower’s attempt to treat the 3 News poll as though it was hard evidence of the state of the parties, while TV One were doing the same with a different poll result, showed just how lame his whole polling PR was.

      • ghostrider888 9.1.1
        21 April 2013 at 8:13 pm

        yes it was like a game of two laughs; when switched to 3 it was a laugh at Reid research and the earnest eeling of Patrick Gower; he is definitely a shocker to be on the main source of info-tainment for the majority.

        • North 9.1.1.1
          21 April 2013 at 9:40 pm

          Mr Bean’s cousin Gower urgently pretends to the 7 pm spot occupied by that real journalist the polished Campbell. Fancies he will achieve that spot by aggressive waving-on of his employer’s latest fart. Just look at the “TV3 and me are part of this story” antics of the little puppy.

          As for example when he presumed to lay down his personal bottom line and unashamedly declare, and in following days reiterate, his personal anger about the report re Shane Jones’ Chinese immigrant guy. WTF ? Who gives a toss about whatever itchy discomfort registers at the front confluence of the leg parts of your cheap suit kiddo ?

          A dreadfully un-telegenic and unappealing nothing is Mr Bean’s cousin – what with that slightly crazed , weirdly urgent “breaking-news” look about him, served up with shockingly sham attempts at gravitas. John Campbell’s spot ? In your dreams Puppy Boy. “Political Editor” ? Ha !

    • Lanthanide 9.2
      21 April 2013 at 8:41 pm

      All of the TV stations do this with their polls, TV1 is no better when it’s polling violently disagrees with the others. They make up all this ridiculous crap about what it would mean as an election result. the only hedging they do at all is mention the “margin of error” at the end, which I am convinced none of the journalists actually understand (they might think they do, but when push comes to shove, they wouldn’t).

  10. Boadicea 10
    22 April 2013 at 12:11 am

    Not Rogue.
    TV3 is aligned with the others in that they all report that Shearer is not personally making any cut-through.
    We want Labour to win. But Shearer is our biggest liability.
    We cannot make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.
    The lifts we get are only based on Nat’s poor performances.

  11. vto 11
    22 April 2013 at 8:26 am

    Labour most certainly have a serious problem with Shearer’ mumbling and bumbling. He seems to be getting better but shit folks, if he steams into a campaign peppered with mumblefucks, the mumblefucks will become funny and take on a life of their own. Dunno how far labour would get when the populace laughs at what the leader says and waits with baited breath for the next sloppy dripper.

    I find in my line of occupation that the problems and weak points are what you need to concentrate on, not the good bits. One or two weak points can undo all the good bits. Gotta concentrate on the weak points, winkle them out and repair them. Do not ever turna blind eye to your weak points or they will bite you on te bum. More 2c.

  12. Adrian 12
    22 April 2013 at 3:20 pm

    Of course Labour’s lift is dependent on the Nats poor performance, it’s because that floating vote of around 15% goes either way. Labours win is not going to come from a mysterious upsurge further left ( though there are some there) but from the middle of the roaders, who incidentally probably wouldn’t vote Green at the threat of being taken out by their own late-model BMW or hunting rifle. So calls for Labour to go a lot further Left are a siren call. If you want a left wing Goverment you’ve got to accommodate them. Suck it up.

    • Colonial Viper 12.1
      22 April 2013 at 4:17 pm

      So ignore the half million or more working class and under class who didn’t turn up last time, in favour of currying favour with the $60K-$100K pa “middle”? It is a way to win elections, but “affordable” $450,000 housing is not what I had in mind.

      • ghostrider888 12.1.1
        22 April 2013 at 4:22 pm

        as an aside; thanks again for those components and specs; was doing the dishes, meditating on how I was going to pay for them, and a man I hadn’t seen for yonks turned up and offered to give me a 4-year old desktop which is going into the shop to be re-powered quad-core tomorrow.
        🙂

      • mac1 12.1.2
        22 April 2013 at 4:24 pm

        So, CV, what else has Labour announced so far, a year or more out from an election? And which of it do you, in your own mind, like?

        • Colonial Viper 12.1.2.1
          22 April 2013 at 5:58 pm

          Hmmmmmm NZ Power has got to be about it so far….CGT, $15/hr min wage, TPPA etc not what we need to solve the issues being faced.

      • McFlock 12.1.3
        22 April 2013 at 6:09 pm

        actually, is there any data available for the socioeconomic cuts of “non-voter” vs “voted” in the last election?

  13. bad12 13
    22 April 2013 at 4:09 pm

    Funny how when discussed vis a vis polling David Shearer’s failure to gain a huge amount of traction in the preferred Prime Minister poll comes up time and again, we all should befor we leap into that particular fray take a moment to reflect upon the same polling results Helen Clark received befor She became the Prime Minister,

    The next round of political polling will tell us all, including Labour, David Shearer and the Green Party just how big the appetite is in the electorate for the destruction of the Neo-Liberal political and economic consensus really is and judging by the as yet un-polled reaction to NZPower ‘it’s’ big and growing,

    I would suggest now, weeks befor the next round of polling that National are going to find themselves stuck in the traditional position of that particular motley crew with 40-42% of the vote and the gains to Labour/Green will come via the previous uncommitted/ did not vote bloc in society,

    There’s a long haul to November 2014 so the party hasn’t started here just yet but would dare suggest that the announcement by Labour/Green that they will fix what ails the ‘electricity market’ has now changed the game from ‘maybe’ in 2014 to one of how big’s the majority going to be,

    The next biggy i would want to see from Labour/Green is the transition of the ‘minimum wage’ into that of the ‘living wage’ and the proposed stages by which we can achieve this,

    As a PS, my view of making the next National Government after 2014 an extremely hard ask is that the Party strategists look at including NZFirst in Government should that Party be able to maintain it’s 5% in 2014, there are obvious pitfalls but my view is better them inside the tent than out…

    • ghostrider888 13.1
      22 April 2013 at 4:18 pm

      yes, pitfalls being Winston veto-ing progressive legislation; what brings you back round these haunts bad 12?

    • Colonial Viper 13.2
      22 April 2013 at 4:19 pm

      we all should befor we leap into that particular fray take a moment to reflect upon the same polling results Helen Clark received befor She became the Prime Minister,

      OK. And what other things might be comparable between Shearer and Clark? Parliamentary terms of experience before becoming PM? Previous portfolio experience? Being steeped in Labour culture, traditions and history? No, not really.

  14. lurgee 14
    22 April 2013 at 5:12 pm

    The rage some people are still expressing towards Shearer is quite perplexing. Labour-Green are looking like a credible alternative government if the RM-CB polls are correct, with Labour up 8% on the 2011 result. They are starting to outline policy which is a) good and. b) likely to motivate the stay at home vote from previous elections. No-one (other than a few fringe loons) are talking about leadership any more. Yet still he’s being slammed. Some people, it would seem, are never going to be happy.

    In Britain, Ed Milliband’s Labour party are 10% clear of the Tories. His personal polling is dire. It is part and parcel of being an opposition leader. Shearer’s rating will improve when people actually have to start thinking if they want him to be Prime Minister or not. I suspect, also, that he will perform well under pressure. He is, after all, far more used to far more extreme pressure than any of us idiots blathering here.

    • Colonial Viper 14.1
      22 April 2013 at 6:07 pm

      Hey woah, mate.

      Yes, Milliband’s PM readiness polling is only 24%, but you missed out one important fact: Milliband has the highest personal polling out of all the main party leaders, i.e. including Cameron and Clegg.

      [Shearer] is, after all, far more used to far more extreme pressure than any of us idiots blathering here.

      A rehash of the AK47 warzone anecdotes? I’d settle for being able to win on Q+A.

    • karol 14.2
      22 April 2013 at 6:10 pm

      Not to mention that many Brits on the left (including some ex Labour people) are not very happy with Miliband – they see him as another neoliberal apologist.

      • McFlock 14.2.1
        22 April 2013 at 6:12 pm

        tsk. Him too?

        • Colonial Viper 14.2.1.1
          22 April 2013 at 6:14 pm

          it’s pretty much fucked. UK Labour has been making more noises of late about making sure that bene’s aren’t leaching off the system.

    • Mike 14.3
      22 April 2013 at 6:15 pm

      Good point, a lot of political people forget that a lot of ‘popularity’ among the public is just name recognition, most normal non-political people only know the name of one or two politicians, typically the PM and his predecessor

      Once Shearer is there, the power of the PM’s office (and its army of press secs) will propel his popularity numbers up.

    • gobsmacked 14.4
      22 April 2013 at 8:03 pm

      Shearer’s rating will improve when people actually have to start thinking if they want him to be Prime Minister or not.

      Early candidate for “Most Deluded Comment of The Week”.

      That’s the last thing Labour will want voters to be thinking about. If voters only think (a) they’ve had enough of Key/National, and (b) they like some Labour/Green policy, then there could be a change of government.

      If they actually do think about Shearer as PM, we’re fucked.

      • ghostrider888 14.4.1
        22 April 2013 at 8:45 pm

        yes gs; I hummed and ha’d about that “comment” me-self and decided it was best left to dry.

        • lurgee 14.4.1.1
          22 April 2013 at 10:56 pm

          At the moment, for 90% of the population, he’s a nonentity; they can’t think of much good about him so he he must, therefore, be doing a bad job. Truth is, they can’t think of much to say about him because there is very rarely ever anything to say about the Leader of the Opposition, unless it is negative. It’s like being Vice President in the US, which someone compared to having to drink a glass of vomit. By definition, you’re unimportant and dismissed, until a month or two before an electionwhen the apathetic majority give themselves a shake and think, “Who the Hell are we going to get to run this place now?” Then, and only then, is it likely Shearer’s numbers will move.

          Milliband is in a similar situation. Comparisons of his rating to other British political leaders aren’t really relevant – they are loathed for what they have done (whereas Key is still quite liked by a lot of people); Shearer is afflicted by the same problem as Shearer, that of being the Unimportant Person out of the three main party leaders. If he (or Shearer) can’t boost his numbers when the election is imminent, then there is a problem. Pointing to his ratings and squeaking is a waste of energy. Incidentally, Milliband’s internal critics are concerned that he might be dragging the Labour Party left, off the safe Blairite right-of-centre. If there is any criticism of him from the left, it is coming from Trotskyite factions which (combined) muster about 0.3% of the vote. Trying to brand him as a neo-liberal is a novelty.

          As for my assessment that Shearer may only start firing on all cylinders in the lead up to the election, it is based on his performance to date – generally erratic and stuttering until the moment of (often self caused) crisis. I might be wrong, of course.

          • Colonial Viper 14.4.1.1.1
            22 April 2013 at 11:46 pm

            At the moment, for 90% of the population, he’s a nonentity

            About 50% of the Labour supporters (but not members) I talk to think that Shearer is OK and getting decent exposure, and about 50% think that he’s lacklustre and wrong for the job of taking on National.

            Milliband is in a similar situation. Comparisons of his rating to other British political leaders aren’t really relevant

            Yeah, that’s because Milliband has a better personal poll rating than both the Leader of the Conservative Party (the UK PM) and the Leader of the Lib Dems (the UK DPM).

            BTW you brought up the comparison between UK Labour and NZ Labour, so please don’t shy back from it when it doesn’t suit you.

            I might be wrong, of course.

            At least you could stand by your convictions. My call: 49% chance Shearer will finish debate season with a reasonably average “holding the fort” performance against Key; 49% chance that he will finish debate season similar to Air France flight 447. 2% chance Key melts down and Shearer creams him where he stands.

            Best scenario for Labour: Key goes and Shearer is matched up against Collins or Joyce.

            f there is any criticism of him from the left, it is coming from Trotskyite factions which (combined) muster about 0.3% of the vote. Trying to brand him as a neo-liberal is a novelty.

            Yeah I appreciate you’ve earnt your pay and now you’re fucking kidding me.

            • McFlock 14.4.1.1.1.1
              23 April 2013 at 12:03 am

              Looking at their respective changes of late, I think you need to give key a much >2% chance of tanking a debate.

              Not that lab should go one on one – they’ll have coalition partners, nats are all or nothing

              • Colonial Viper …
                23 April 2013 at 12:24 am

                Key’s head is out of the game at the moment; but by 2014 Key’ll either be back with his best game face on, or he’ll be long gone and someone else will be fronting the National No Plan Show.

            • lurgee 14.4.1.1.1.2
              23 April 2013 at 12:23 am

              “Yeah, that’s because Milliband has a better personal poll rating than both the Leader of the Conservative Party (the UK PM) and the Leader of the Lib Dems (the UK DPM).

              BTW you brought up the comparison between UK Labour and NZ Labour, so please don’t shy back from it when it doesn’t suit you.”

              I haven’t backed away from anything. You’re just trying to compare apples and unicorns.

              As I said, Milliband’s ratings are better than the coalition leaders because they are more hated than things that are hated (You forgot to comment on that bit). So comparisons between the two have to be made carefully. You can’t claim Milliband is popular because his opponents are even more unpopular. He’s in the same position as Shearer in terms of voters perception of him as a credible alternative PM – the British electorate don’t know much about him, and obscurity equates to uselessness as far as voters are concerned.

              Nick Clegg was in a similar position prior to the 2010 election – his approval and disapproval ratings were pretty much even until about a year out from the election, when he began to get positive coverage due to the Expenses Scandal and the Financial Crisis blah blah blah – then one went up, the other went down. He didn’t suddenly become competent, of course: people just started noticing him and thought, “That’s what we like in politicians: not Scottish and not a Tory.” After his performance in the leader’s debates, he became even more wildly popular, teenage girls were swooning and the matrons of Olde Englande were surreptitiously mailing him their underwear. Then he got into a coalition with the Tories, and now he’s hated again …

              So, as I said, it is silly to try to read anything into Shearer’s personal ratings at this point. Opposition leaders are almost always held in faint regard. After all, painting them as great often forces the electorate to confront the uncomfortable question of why the voted them out in the first place.

              “My call: 49% chance Shearer will finish debate season with a reasonably average “holding the fort” performance against Key; 49% chance that he will finish debate season similar to Air France flight 447. 2% chance Key melts down and Shearer creams him where he stands.”

              The thing about the debates is they aren’t really. Debates, I mean. Shearer will hardly have to confront Key in a Battle of Wits. They will simply trot out their rehearsed lines. Shearer has demonstrated he can be quite good at memorising prepared lines, if nothing else, so he will probably be adequate. After all, we’re starting to see some reasonable policy for him to talk about.

              “Yeah I appreciate you’ve earnt your pay and now you’re fucking kidding me.”

              You realise I’m talking about Ed Milliband there, not David Shearer, yes?

              Milliband’s critics have generally complained about him being too leftwing for the British electorate. Witness the current fuss about the commitment to exceed Tory spending pledges to stimulate the economy. Or the description of him in the rightwing press as Red Ed, the puppet of the unions? As I said, George Galloway and his ilk might make noises off to the left (though Galloway is really a self promoting rabble rouser, more akin to Winston Peters) but they are an electoral irrelevance.

              Out of interest, who is meant to be paying me?

              • Colonial Viper …
                23 April 2013 at 12:28 am

                Mate, happy for your convolutions to be right and for Shearer to…uh, recite the better memorised lines in order to nail Key next year.

                You remind me of an older, more experienced McFlock. Very supportive of Shearer without acknowledging of being very supportive of Shearer.

                • lurgee …
                  23 April 2013 at 12:37 am

                  I acknowledge the gap between what is desireable and what is possible. There is no imminent leftist revolution, in spite of what the dreamers will tell you, and it wouldn’t happen if David Cunliffe was leader, either.

                  The current battle isn’t about selling revolution to the starving masses but stopping the rightwing wreckers destroying everything tolerable. Unfortunately, their message is simple and seems logical at first glance; and they can appeal to all the nasty sides of people quite easily. So a vaguely leftish Labour led administration would be the best result we can hope for. Clark had a much better shot at making some real changes – but she preferred to do nothing, let the Alliance die and freeze out the Greens. A bit like Blair in Britain, really.

              • McFlock …
                23 April 2013 at 12:34 am

                Didn’t you get the memo lurg? Anyone who stops short of calling shearer an incomptent gibbering hand-held neoliberal must be in the pay of the
                “ABC” brigade

  15. jim 15
    22 April 2013 at 7:17 pm

    If the voting pattern of the past ten years is of consequence it will be the 14% undecided who will make the call as to who shall rule, not some dubious polls.

    Like it or not, without Shearer seriously sharpening up, it is a lost cause, and as stated previously in the comments, come the pre election debates he will most certainly be dog tucker.

  16. The Pink Postman 16
    23 April 2013 at 2:40 pm

    Well its a puzzle to me , Here we Labour announcing a major policy ,which appears to be very popular. Proves it can work with our other Left-Wing party (which pleases me). Has ,in the words of John Armstrong left the Nat’s gobsmacked. Most polls showing Labour rising, Already announced an exciting housing policy plus Labour’s David Clark’s success with his private bill and all some out there can do find fault with David Shearer .Give us a break !

  17. burt 17
    2 May 2013 at 7:57 pm

    The Roy Morgan poll just out reflects the effects of NZ power announcement. Unless of course its a rogue and TV3 are more reliable this time. Will be interesting to see how Greens/Labour react to this.