Errr, Labour didn't have more votes in 1996. If they had more votes, Winston would've gone with them. The problem for Winston in 1996 was that it was either guarantee a stable government with National, or rely on Jim Anderton as well for a stable Labour ...
Well this might help smash the perceptions that New Zealand First are anti-Asian: http://www.istars.co.nz/portal.php?mod=view&aid=11616 Ho Peng has been announced as a candidate for New Zealand First. Winston also talks about immigration in the story; he ...
If the people of Epsom use their vote intelligently, good on them. I just wish the left did the same-had Rimutaka smartened up, Helen Clark might still have been PM.
"Because Labour doesn’t give sweetheart deals like National is trying to give to Act in Epsom." Coromandel, 1999.
Hone won by 9%, and was just 89 votes away from an outright majority. It's hardly marginal. Almost all of the swing can be accounted for: the Maori Party retained 8.8% of the vote, and most of the 9.4% who gave their party vote to National last time will ...
I'm sure that would come into the equation of an FTA deal.
2% and Mana are a party of three. Pretty doable I reckon.
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis and OurNZ to share 9% of the vote? Wow.
I can only see Kelvin winning if the anti-Hone vote is strong. I believe it's sizeable, but not strong enough to raise Labour's voter turnout significantly higher than usual in Maori electorates. 50/30 respectively for Harawira and Davis IMO. 15% for ...
It's interesting that Clarkson was interested in being the National candidate for Tauranga (he made moves to challenge Bridges for the nomination but didn't get in on time) but is now saying he's not interested in being the ACT candidate for Tauranga. ...
Presuming Hone wins this by-election, I'm picking Annette Sykes to win Waiariki.
Yep, 2002 was the last year National ran candidates in the Maori seats, and it's now their policy not to. It will be interesting to see how close Kelvin runs Hone, and how much of the vote the Maori Party get. I'm picking a distant humiliating third, maybe...
The Maori Party are quite correct to say they won't be coming second. They'll come third. My predictions: Hone Harawira 52% Kelvin Davis 27% Maori Party candidate 16%
Potentially, but that's still a far stronger democratic mandate than we have today. I like the idea of list rankings according to % of votes gained.
I think Brash joining ACT would be good for the left. Labour aren't getting anything to stick to John because he seems like a reasonable, pragmatic sort of guy. However, Brash isn't. It's not easy for the left to label Key as some sort of enemy given how ...
Here's a proposition: I think this gives Metiria Turei a good excuse to run in Te Tai Tonga. She'd have a good chance I think.
"There is no way National MPs will stand idly by and watch a minority left-leaning government being formed. So Key will be told by the caucus (i.e. by the Ministers who want to keep their jobs) that he has to deal with NZ First, and if not, he’s out the ...
How does Roy Morgan overestimate NZF's support? Last election they were the only polling company to be within 0.5% of both New Zealand First and ACT's total. All other polls were well out on New Zealand First's total.
So how about today's Roy Morgan poll? National 49% Labour 34.5% Greens 6.5% New Zealand First 5.5% Maori Party 3% ACT 1%
He's gone from no in 2008 to maybe in 2010 to no in 2011. So he's flip-flopped on that basis.
I wish there was a way to get the message across to all Maori voters to vote for the Maori Party candidate in every electorate except Te Tai Hauauru. This stuff from Hone though, is actually a positive for the Maori Party, and the reason why the Maori ...
Agreed Sam. A more accurate statement would be to say that the majority of right voters do not support MMP.
"And I’m having difficulty understanding 11.4% of the Act vote apparently voted for the Progressive Party at the last election." That's not actually what the chart says. It says that 11.4% of the total polled who voted for the Progressives Party last time ...
My prediction is that we will not have a result on election night. We will end up with National 44%, Labour 35%, Greens 7%, New Zealand First 6%, Maori Party 2.5% (7 electorate seats), ACT 1.5 (Epsom) United Future 1.5% (Ohariu). Labour will win back the ...
As much as I want Hide and ACT to disappear from the face of the earth, I think Hide is going to hold it. ACT will probably still get over 1.25% of the vote, which instantly increases the value of Hide in the seat for the right. Key will want to get a ...
I believe that the significant "don't know" polling for preferred PM probably comes from people who arre confused after hearing the options "Helen Clark" and "Phil Goff", with Helen Clark having been a popular past leader, yet obviously not being there ...
I think Twyford would easily account for Tau Henare. I wonder if the Nats would look to stand Michael Jones there though?
Could Raymond Huo cut the majority in Botany perhaps? I think Winston will look at Botany (unless Te Atatu comes up), it would be a great platform for him towards the 5%. It could maybe be a good way of dispelling any notion that he's anti-Asian.
If the Roy Morgan doesn't match this poll, Key's going to look like a right pillock.
You're right, this poll could end up being one of those self-fulfilling prophesies. This poll is important for Winston, because it could help sway voters who like Winston but fear wasting their vote. Reports that rule him in him in help alleviate that fear...
Although I'm not convinced by this poll, the poll is actually pretty close to my projections for the next election, albeit no Progressives and <2% for ACT. I think there's plenty of ground to occupy for New Zealand First, with United Future stagnant and ...
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