election 2014

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Labour’s leadership

Written By: - Date published: 10:24 am, September 23rd, 2014 - 216 comments

David Cunliffe has just announced that he will seek to continue as leader of the Labour Party and will let the party decide.  A contest for the leadership is almost inevitable.

Lessons

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, September 22nd, 2014 - 482 comments

Greetings from the sanity of Dunedin North. Every pundit and their dog is opining on the lessons of Saturday, so I might as well have a go too.

Psephology-o-rama: Hangover nerdery edition

Written By: - Date published: 1:51 pm, September 21st, 2014 - 23 comments

Now that the battle for election night ratings is over for another three years, here is a table for your entrail-reading pleasure showing the three biggest parties’ vote shares in a few different geographic / demographic segments.

Media don’t believe their own polls

Written By: - Date published: 11:14 am, September 21st, 2014 - 62 comments

What strikes me now is the media commentators saying it was “a surprising result”. Well, if we were to believe all the polls, then this result is not a surprise. This tells us that the media don’t believe their own polls.

Three more years

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, September 21st, 2014 - 141 comments

This election result is not the end of the world for me – because I am very, very lucky.

Next time …

Written By: - Date published: 8:59 am, September 21st, 2014 - 174 comments

National has an outright majority and the left has gone backwards.  Some thoughts on what may have happened.

Green Watch

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 43 comments

I am hoping for a good proportion of the vote for the Green Party.  They got !!% of the vote in 2011, resulting in them having 14 MPs. Updated

Seat watch – Te Tai Tokerau

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 65 comments

Will Hone hang on and bring in Internet Mana MPs with him?  The polls suggest that the race with Kelvin Davis is neck and neck although Hone has this habit of doing far better than the landline polls would suggest. Updated: Kelvin Davis ahead but it was won by specials last time.

Seat watch – Ohariu

Written By: - Date published: 7:10 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 24 comments

Will Peter Dunne continue as the MP for Ohariu and sole United Future MP or will Labour’s Virginia Andersen prevail?

Updated: Looks like Peter Dunne is back again.

Seat Watch – Epsom

Written By: - Date published: 7:05 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 11 comments

Who will win Epsom? Will enough people rebel at John Key’s instruction to vote for the ACT candidate or will ACT’s extreme policies and Jaime Whyte’s weirdness mean that the people of Epsom will rebel and vote for Paul Goldsmith? Updated: Early, but the Act guy ahead.

From Moira

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 4 comments

Moira Coatsworth, Labour Party President, sent this notice out to the members, supporters and volunteers.

Election watch 2014

Written By: - Date published: 7:02 pm, September 20th, 2014 - 695 comments

I hear there was an election today.  What happened?

21:45: National will probably be easily able to form a coalition with their two puppet parties and maybe the Maori party. Conservatives out.

Political advertising on election day

Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, September 20th, 2014 - 3 comments

I’m getting scattered reports and images of political advertising popping up on various websites. They seem to look like accidents more than a deliberate strategy.
Updated: In other news blogger does a good selfie…
Updated 1300: NZ Herald mobile site still has political ads popping up periodically.
Updated 1550: Quinovic Mt Eden have clearly violated electoral law with a mailout.

Have a happy and legal election day

Written By: - Date published: 8:05 pm, September 19th, 2014 - 17 comments

At 12pm tonight, the comments section on this site will (largely) stop accepting comments. I will (probably) be putting up a post tomorrow morning to accept, store and act on private electoral complaints from anywhere around the country. Take a snap of violations and log it. Lets keep the buggers honest. Updated.

Check you are enrolled – last chance

Written By: - Date published: 1:13 pm, September 19th, 2014 - 9 comments

You can’t enrol to vote tomorrow. If you haven’t early voted, don’t have a vote pack, and if you don’t show up on the electronic roll and you are in anyway unsure, then your best bet is to head to your local post shop, and fill in and give them an enrolment form – BEFORE the post shop closes.

The importance of voting from a young woman’s perspective

Written By: - Date published: 12:09 pm, September 19th, 2014 - 7 comments

A guest post from a young woman who cast her vote today.

A clean start

Written By: - Date published: 11:17 am, September 19th, 2014 - 27 comments

If Team Key manage to stagger over the line it will be a government paralysed from the start by scandal and investigation – inward looking and defensive. A rather Pyrrhic “victory” at best. We need a Labour led government so that we can put this nightmare behind us. We need a clean start.

The tweets are alive….

Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, September 19th, 2014 - 5 comments

… with pre-election day fervour. It’s an election that’s going down to the wire.  The energy is there for the left to keep talking to people, and to encourage as many as possible to get out and vote. It’s Suffrage Day – reporting via the telegraph in 1893 to the internet today. On-going updates

Polity: Shameful, innumerate reporting of Herald poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:48 am, September 19th, 2014 - 32 comments

If a politics editor at a major National newspaper doesn’t know basic statistics, then you’d have to ask how she retains her job? Having a jonolist apparently deliberately distort the meaning of a poll that is taken, and whose results was not linked to in the article, is a complete travesty.

Three final polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, September 19th, 2014 - 98 comments

Three last polls and National’s support is declining, Labour’s improving and the Greens are stable.  Things are getting very close with Winston Peters looking more and more likely to hold the balance of power.  This election will be decided vote by vote.

Shout out to The Standard

Written By: - Date published: 6:50 pm, September 18th, 2014 - 61 comments

A special call to work from David Cunliffe. http://youtu.be/0UK8ZPtjaxo If you don’t already have an date with a political party of the left on Saturday, then the best thing you can do is to Firstly vote left (and maybe Labour). Find a party that can employ you constructively on Saturday on turning out the vote. […]

Greens buoyant

Written By: - Date published: 5:53 pm, September 18th, 2014 - 14 comments

John Key & National’s empty facade – its lack of vision for NZ – has been exposed. Opposition parties have continued to campaign positively, focusing on people, fairness, & the environment. [Update] NZ Herald video

The Conservatives in a shambles

Written By: - Date published: 3:03 pm, September 18th, 2014 - 29 comments

This direct mail has gone out without an authorisation statement to who knows how many kiwi households. Add this on top of losing their press sec today and you have to wonder if the Conservatives are going to make it to election day in one piece. In case you can’t read the text at the […]

Vote Key, get Colin

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, September 18th, 2014 - 97 comments

With the latest poll results it’s basically a coin-toss whether a vote for National gets you Colin Craig and his extremist mates at the Cabinet table.

Stability vs Change

Written By: - Date published: 8:22 am, September 18th, 2014 - 79 comments

This election there are two very different visions of the future on offer. I know which I prefer.

Key’s last fig leaf

Written By: - Date published: 7:42 am, September 18th, 2014 - 32 comments

Key’s last fig leaf on GCSB surveillance is to plead ignorance. Unfortunately for him the evidence is compelling. If he does manage to lead the next government, these issues will continue to haunt him.

Leader’s debate IV

Written By: - Date published: 8:34 pm, September 17th, 2014 - 155 comments

The fourth and final leaders debate has now finished.  John Key will be pleased at his decision to limit it to 30 minutes.

The latest polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, September 17th, 2014 - 92 comments

Two polls out today both suggesting that National are comfortably ahead although the Reid Research has National declining further and polling under 45%.  The equivalent polls last time predicted that National would win an outright victory.  This is going to be a very tight election.

Jackal: A conspiracy theory too far

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, September 17th, 2014 - 114 comments

Over the last month John Key has been displaying behaviour of being  a raving right wing conspiracy theorist. Over the weekend megalomaniacal John Key even said that he wants the governor general to stage a coup to allow him to remain in power. The Jackal summarises recent nutty right wing conspiracy theories from the PM and others.

Nastiest election ever?

Written By: - Date published: 8:06 am, September 17th, 2014 - 79 comments

Is this the nastiest election ever? The wit and wisdom of Twitter on this and other matters…

A Matter of Simple Logic

Written By: - Date published: 4:54 pm, September 16th, 2014 - 103 comments

One of the few journalists to do his job properly over the course of the dirty politics scandal has been Guyon Espiner. He has, without in any way breaching his duty of impartiality, seen it as his responsibility on Morning Report to put questions to, and demand answers of, the Prime Minister – and, when […]

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