Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020

Written By: - Date published: 4:30 pm, September 2nd, 2020 - 30 comments
Categories: act, election 2020, greens, labour, MMP, national, nz first - Tags: , , , ,

A trend of 2020 polling resultsHi all, sorry about missing the post for the previous Roy Morgan poll– I’ve been having connection problems for a wee bit over a month that just hit at the wrong time for me to be able to write a post for that one, and my phone’s internet wasn’t stable enough to send off a post unfortunately, even though I had it drafted. I did manage to get the results onto Twitter if you want to see them. Was intending to catch up yesterday or today and post my draft with images and proper metadata, but we’ve been overrun by the new Roy Morgan results, so why don’t we skip ahead straight to the new one.

It looks like just under a month out from the delayed election date, we’re finally getting some narrowing of the poll results, with Labour under 50% for the first time since March, but still within shooting distance of a majority government- the line for this varies based on how much of the party vote is given to parties that don’t enter Parliament, but the plurality winner (largest result winner, so in 2017 this was National) of the party vote getting below 47% is usually a pretty safe line to call it an expected minority government.

A half-pie chart of expected results from this poll.As Roy Morgan doesn’t run a seat calculation on their results, I’ve done that for you on the left. This represents the single most likely result from this poll, if we trust its methodology. As usual, I should point out that although the Roy Morgan was our second most reliable poll in 2017, it consistently overpolls the Greens compared to the other two polls, and is likely overestimating their support significantly here. This difference has become more dramatic in 2020 polling, and while it’s possible Roy Morgan is the one that’s more accurate about the Greens, I disagree with that idea based on past performance. That said, despite some people’s dismissal of the Roy Morgan poll, it is the only poll that sticks to a regular timeline, and it was actually more accurate than Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) overall, when you compare it to the closest timed Colmar Brunton poll for the 2017 election, meaning it arguably comes in second of the three big polls. Roy Morgan, like Colmar Brunton, polls using phone cold-calling.

A pie chart of expected government types from this pollOnto the party vote- at 48%, Labour is no longer guaranteed a majority government- there is some chance their actual support falls below that magic margin to get a majority government, so the narrowing has brought us back into interesting territory here again. Note that the chance for a Labour-Green government just relies on the Greens being over threshold, (which is 100% based on the party vote support given, and would be even if we assume RM is over-reporting on the Greens by a full 4 points) not on their actual level of support. Any over-threshold result in those 22.4% of simulations gives us a Labour-Green government, showing that Green support is critical right now if we want a result that requires Labour to be accountable to a coalition partner. National is clearly hoping it can knock the Greens under threshold to move the overton window a bit further right based on recent attempts to further outrage over the Green School decision, and there have been questions of whether New Zealand First is leaking on the issue, too.

In this analysis, ACT were under threshold in 9.2% of simulations, and New Zealand first in 95.6%, meaning they are extremely likely to be over and under, respectively, when the trend is taken into account. Based on actual polling data, I do not consider a Northland win for Shane Jones worth considering at this point, meaning NZF must be over threshold to win seats.

A trendline of party vote support modelling.The trend is still very solidly left-wing at the moment, with only a few blips based on outlier polls even bringing National into significant contention during Ardern’s entire time governing. We’ll see if things close any further for National during the remaining month of the campaign, but at this stage I’m personally more concerned about the composition of the expected left-wing government. While I’m happy to have New Zealand First gone under current polling, I consider it a very good thing we’ve not yet seen a majority government under MMP.

Roy Morgan don’t disclose the exact fieldwork dates on their poll, but do tell us notable recent events that are covered:

“Interviewing for this survey in August encompassed the period including the enforcement of Stage 3 restrictions across Auckland following the renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in the city and the decision to postpone the election by four weeks.”

Based on this, I think it likely that this result excludes the recent Green School controversy, and we should certainly wait for the next Reid Research (Newshub) or Colmar Brunton (TVNZ) poll to inform where we think the Greens are at anyway.

On individual MPs, here’s how the party lists look when I run this result through my model for electorate shifts: (List continues in order until last winner)

National
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Judith Collins Papakura Electorate
2 Gerry Brownlee Ilam Electorate
3 Paul Goldsmith Epsom List
4 Simon Bridges Tauranga Electorate
5 Shane Reti Whangārei Electorate
6 Todd McClay Rotorua Electorate
7 Chris Bishop Hutt South List
8 Todd Muller Bay of Plenty Electorate
9 Louise Upston Taupō Electorate
10 Scott Simpson Coromandel Electorate
11 David Bennett Hamilton East Electorate
12 Michael Woodhouse Dunedin List
13 Nicola Willis Wellington Central Defeated
14 Jacqui Dean Waitaki Electorate
15 Mark Mitchell Whangaparāoa Electorate
16 Melissa Lee Mt Albert Defeated
17 Andrew Bayly Port Waikato Electorate
18 Nick Smith Nelson Defeated
19 Maureen Pugh List No Seat
20 Barbara Kuriger Taranaki-King Country Electorate
21 Harete Hipango Whanganui Defeated
22 Johnathan Young New Plymouth Electorate
23 Tim Macindoe Hamilton West Electorate
24 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Defeated
25 Paulo Garcia List No Seat
26 Nancy Lu List No Seat
27 Parmjeet Parmar Mt Roskill Defeated
28 Agnes Loheni List No Seat
29 Dale Stephens Christchurch Central Defeated
30 Alfred Ngaro Te Atatū Defeated
31 Matt Doocey Waimakariri Electorate
32 Stuart Smith Kaikōura Electorate
33 Lawrence Yule Tukituki Defeated
34 Denise Lee Maungakiekie Defeated
35 Simon O’Connor Tāmaki Electorate
36 Brett Hudson Ōhariu Defeated
37 Simeon Brown Pakuranga Electorate
38 Ian McKelvie Rangitīkei Electorate
39 Erica Stanford East Coast Bays Electorate
40 Matt King Northland Electorate
41 Chris Penk Kaipara ki Mahurangi Electorate
42 Tim Van de Molen Waikato Electorate
43 Dan Bidois Northcote Electorate
44 Jo Hayes Mana Defeated
45 Katie Nimon Napier Defeated
46 Catherine Chu Banks Peninsula Defeated
47 Hamish Campbell Wigram Defeated
48 David Patterson Rongotai Defeated
49 Lisa Whyte New Lynn Defeated
50 Rima Nakhle Takanini Defeated
51 Liam Kernaghan Taieri Defeated
52 Bala Beeram Kelston Defeated
53 Lincoln Platt Christchurch East Defeated
54 William Wood Palmerston North Defeated
55 Nuwi Samarakone Manurewa Defeated
56 Mark Crofskey Remutaka Defeated
57 Jake Bezzant Upper Harbour Electorate
58 Mike Butterick Wairarapa Defeated
59 Tim Costley Ōtaki Electorate
60 Nicola Grigg Selwyn Electorate
61 Christopher Luxon Botany Electorate
62 Joseph Mooney Southland Electorate
63 Penny Simmonds Invercargill Electorate
64 Tania Tapsell East Coast Defeated
65 Simon Watts North Shore Electorate

 

Labour
No. Name Electorate Outcome:
1 Jacinda Ardern Mt Albert Electorate
2 Kelvin Davis Te Tai Tokerau Electorate
3 Grant Robertson Wellington Central Electorate
4 Phil Twyford Te Atatū Electorate
5 Megan Woods Wigram Electorate
6 Chris Hipkins Remutaka Electorate
7 Andrew Little List List
8 Carmel Sepuloni Kelston Electorate
9 David Parker List List
10  Nanaia Mahuta Hauraki-Waikato Electorate
11  Trevor Mallard List List
12  Stuart Nash Napier Electorate
13  Jenny Salesa Panmure-Ōtāhuhu Electorate
14  Damien O’Connor West Coast-Tasman Electorate
15  Kris Faafoi List List
16  David Clark Dunedin Electorate
17  Ayesha Verrall List List
18  Peeni Henare Tāmaki Makaurau Electorate
19  Willie Jackson List List
20  Aupito William Sio List List
21  Poto Williams Christchurch East Electorate
22  Vanushi Walters List List
23  Michael Wood Mt Roskill Electorate
24  Adrian Rurawhe Te Tai Hauāuru Electorate
25  Kiri Allan East Coast Electorate
26  Kieran McAnulty Wairarapa Electorate
27  Louisa Wall List List
28  Meka Whaitiri Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Electorate
29  Rino Tirikatene Te Tai Tonga Electorate
30  Camilla Belich Epsom List
31  Priyanca Radhakrishnan Maungakiekie Electorate
32  Jan Tinetti Tauranga List
33  Deborah Russell New Lynn Electorate
34  Marja Lubeck Kaipara ki Mahurangi List
35  Angie Warren-Clark Bay of Plenty List
36  Willow-Jean Prime Northland List
37  Tamati Coffey Waiariki Electorate
38  Naisi Chen Botany List
39  Jo Luxton Rangitata List
40  Jamie Strange Hamilton East List
41  Liz Craig Invercargill List
42  Ibrahim Omer List List
43  Duncan Webb Christchurch Central Electorate
44  Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki List List
45  Ginny Andersen Hutt South Electorate
46  Rachel Brooking List List
47  Paul Eagle Rongotai Electorate
48  Helen White Auckland Central Electorate
49  Barbara Edmonds Mana Electorate
50  Angela Roberts Taranaki-King Country List
51  Shanan Halbert Northcote Defeated
52  Neru Leavasa Takanini Electorate
53  Tracey McLellan Banks Peninsula Electorate
54  Lemauga Lydia Sosene List No Seat
55  Steph Lewis Whanganui Electorate
56  Dan Rosewarne Waimakariri Defeated
57  Rachel Boyack Nelson Electorate
58  Arena Williams Manurewa Electorate
59  Ingrid Leary Taieri Electorate
–  Greg O’Connor Ōhariu Electorate
– Anna Lorck Tukituki Electorate

 

Green
No. Name
1 Marama Davidson
2 James Shaw
3 Chlöe Swarbrick
4 Julie Anne Genter
5 Jan Logie
6 Eugenie Sage
7 Golriz Ghahraman
8 Teanau Tuiono
9 Elizabeth Kerekere
10 Ricardo Menéndez March
11 Steve Abel
12 Teall Crossen
13 Scott Willis
14 Kyle Macdonald
15 Lourdes Vano

(Remember as above, this result likely inflates the Green vote)

ACT
No. Name
1 David Seymour (Epsom)
2 Brooke van Velden
3 Nicole McKee
4 Chris Baillie
5 Simon Court
6 James McDowall
7 Karen Chhour
8 Mark Cameron

30 comments on “Pollwatch: August Roy Morgan poll, reported 1st September 2020 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Peter 1
    2 September 2020 at 4:52 pm

    " Labour is no longer guaranteed a majority government."

    Labour was never guaranteed a majority government. There may have been polls which indicated they could be a majority government.

    • Matthew Whitehead 1.1
      2 September 2020 at 4:57 pm

      The previous recent polls were strong enough that statistically they predicted a guaranteed Labour majority government if the election were held at that time period. I think the implication of what I’m saying is very clear there.

  2. weka 2
    2 September 2020 at 5:26 pm

    what's your thinking on whether Peters can rally the NZF vote at the last minute?

  3. Patricia Bremner 3
    2 September 2020 at 6:20 pm

    Thank you Mathew, we just want Labour and the Greens in, and that looks hopeful.

    People have short memories sadly.

  4. Robert Guyton 4
    2 September 2020 at 6:50 pm

    Meh…

  5. Steven Nichols 5
    2 September 2020 at 8:58 pm

    We can only hope Labour are up for this. I’m In TukiTuki the electorate. The river of the same name is full of the same crap as the current MP

    • NZJester 5.1
      3 September 2020 at 6:10 pm

      Don't forget to the current MP was in charge as Mayor when Nat voter filled Havelock North got a bad case of bacteria in their water, but the Nat voters some how still voted for him.

      He jumped ship to be a MP as he knew he would likely never have got their vote as Mayor, but that Nat voter are stupid enough to still vote for him as their MP even after the big stuff up under his management.

  6. peterh 6
    3 September 2020 at 8:30 am

    Even if Lab got 52% Greens 6% I think Lab would take the greens with them

    • Matthew Whitehead 6.1
      3 September 2020 at 3:00 pm

      A majority government where Labour invests in possibly needing the Greens again in the future looks very different to a minority government where Labour has no choice but to secure the Greens' support.

  7. Treetop 7
    3 September 2020 at 9:28 am

    This poll reflects community transmission of Covid – 19 and an additional lockdown at level 3 in Auckland.

    The question which will be on a voter's mind is.

    Which main political party will handle the Covid transmission and economic fallout better?

  8. Kiwibarnes 8
    3 September 2020 at 10:33 am

    WAIT- what happened to Palmerston North??? You don't think Tangi Utikere will win for Labour? He's taking over ILG's seat with a 6000+ majority…

    • Matthew Whitehead 8.1
      3 September 2020 at 3:05 pm

      Nah, that's just a matter of me not having added him to the list of electorate-only candidates for Labour after ILG's resignation. I've confirmed he's running and done that for future list calcs, so he would technically bump Angela Roberts out of Parliament given I have Labour winning the electorate.

  9. Treetop 9
    3 September 2020 at 10:48 am

    Reply to @7.1

    Which main political party do I trust to handle Covid – 19 transmission and the economic fallout better?

  10. greywarshark 10
    3 September 2020 at 11:17 am

    I think that smart Labour thinking would be to enable the Greens to get an electorate seat, and lock them into being in Parliament definitely. We lefties don't want a wasted vote, and if Labour went on its snooty and superior way of being pure and going it alone, we wouldn't forget that second blow at our democracy they will have delivered.

    I don't know if the brains of Labour strategists put the above matters in the top priority when making their plans. But let's hope I am just a Doubting Thomas, all gloomy and inclined to think the worst. It would be good to get a good rollicking and kick in the butt when reason and sensible tactics prevail and there is practical and pragmatic movement from Labour as referred to above. I would endure punishment with good grace.

    If they get the Greens in for sure that would show Labour doing their best to facilitate left voters who are basically the thinking voters, and the for-NZ voters, and those for a good-sharing and thriving democracy voters, who would then have a chance to restore a reality that people can be pleased to observe in New Zealand. At present, and I feel I speak for most of those in the bloc described above, we do not feel pleased with how things are. We are haggard and anxious about our situation and the pathological fails we have endured for so long, so Labour you owe all of us, to first ensure that Greens are in Parliament, and second to get a workable Coalition with them.

    To be coarse, pull finger! Plain speaking is necessary to illustrate the seriousness of the position in NZ. You must commit to serving NZ citizens' interests, honestly make promises that you can keep, don't rely on BS from business people sucking off the government teat. The writers in Star Wars had Yoda saying the applicable directive, "No! Try not. Do… Or do not. There is no try."

    • Matthew Whitehead 10.1
      3 September 2020 at 3:08 pm

      You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal.

      Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system anyway.

      If you want the Greens in, I'd say it's up to you to party vote accordingly, it's not up to Labour.

      (Also, I’ve seen nothing pre-Green School issue that suggested Greens were under threshold)

      • greywarshark 10.1.1
        3 September 2020 at 3:23 pm

        I'm saying that Labour should want the Greens in. Instead of being so blatantly full of hubris, and self-centred; we stand alone! Let them replace the hubris with humble – they owe the workers; the growing lower-income, under-employed, precariat strata for the damage they have caused to the inclusive economy, and setting up a two-tier inflation regime. Low here, and who cares for the housing sector. They have the mass power, we invested in them with our votes, and now we want a bit of dividend. Let them flex their muscle; they are the big boys, I'm just a teeny cog.

        What about the threshhold then – what is your feeling that it should be at four percent? That way it eases matters a little for parties which genuinely want to be part of a good democracy. I think lower than that – there be dragons.

        • Sacha 10.1.1.1
          3 September 2020 at 5:57 pm

          I haven't seen the Greens asking for a deal. Might be seen as reducing their independence (more).

      • observer 10.1.2
        3 September 2020 at 4:10 pm

        "You're assuming throwing the Greens an electorate seat doesn't affect the party vote for one or both parties based on how voters feel about such a deal."

        Amen.

        Every discussion on this issue has people making simplistic assumptions without addressing this really basic point: how does it affect the nationwide vote that actually decides elections?

        We can't just add (e.g.) 5 to 50 and assume all those votes are locked in regardless. We know that around 12-15% of voters are people who ticked National last time, but are currently in Labour's column. Those potential Labour voters haven't suddenly become enthusiasts for a red-green coalition – after all, they voted for Key and English. They are people who think Ardern is doing a good job, and/or are unimpressed with National's self-destruction.

        I haven't seen any polling data, but I'd guess the swing voters' preferences would be something like:

        1) Jacinda PM 2) daylight 3) Labour without Greens 4) current coalition 5) Lab + NZF or Lab + Greens.

        Labour and the Greens aren't being stubborn or stupid. They both understand the paradox here – the best chance of Labour + Greens governing together is for Labour and the Greens to maximise their respective votes … separately.

      • Draco T Bastard 10.1.3
        3 September 2020 at 4:45 pm

        Smarter would've been to lower the threshold, as it's a change we need to make for our electoral system anyway.

        On that score I do hope that we get a Labour/Greens coalition and that Labour then supports the Greens ideas for change in the electoral system. Or even put in place the recommendations that the Key government commissioned and then ignored because they didn’t like those recommendations (of course, it appears that Labour don’t like them either as they’ve ignored them too).

      • Austringer 10.1.4
        3 September 2020 at 7:21 pm

        I!m of the opinion that given the numbers and always changing numbers like picking the Lotto, that those Parties in the house all will be back, not similar in seats but all back with Labour in alone tentative grasp Governance, with other parties past friends in some soft opposition.

  11. Zuszsa 11
    3 September 2020 at 1:56 pm

    I am finding the anti-green rhetoric coming from the Labour side disheartening and really short sighted.

    If the Greens don't manage the threshold, Labour may scrape through and be able to form a government on their own. But it's a risk. It is clearly where the Nats see their best chance and I expect to see them concentrating their efforts on attacking the Greens.

    I expect NZF to be gone, but if, by some miracle, they do manage to get back I think we can be sure that Winston the Queenmaker will be going with Judith.

    If Labour want to be sure of being able to form a government in a months time they really do need to be supportive of the Greens. If they want a third term then a strong Green presence in parliament will be essential.

    Lets hope the Labour strategists have strategic vision and not myopia.

    • greywarshark 11.1
      3 September 2020 at 3:39 pm

      edited
      If Labour got in and the Greens didn't, what would that do to the thinking left side of the country? Their votes and hopes thrown away. How would they feel about Labour? And who would believe that our political system and any governments could still be expected to deliver anything of worth, or have any functional ability at all.

      Already a channel or stopbank was set up ad hoc on the West Coast under the impetus of need through lack of action for years; same in Christchurch, with Council talking about suing the Councillors. In Christchurch they are at boiling point at being starved of funds after bearing the tragedy of the earthquake. They are hating Labour and also National for the lack of funding for the essential service of their hospital and their need of mental health services. Auckland expanded itself so it would be a size that is able to front with other world cities and now is having giant-sized problems. Christchurch business people are trying to build another airport outside the city to serve Queenstown. NZ are going to realise how these rich bastards from overseas want to use our resources up and will demand so much, we won't have anything left for ourselves. Nelson is wanting to be the AI centre for NZ and probably the world, in line with a USA businessman's desire for inhuman-controlled planes which means a permanent armed forces presence in NZ. (High tech and the armed forces and cold war will all fit together.) NZ used to be a pimple on the side of the world, but now it is infected with all sorts of dis-ease. I don't think Labour on its own could go near to coping with the outbreaks that are going to pop up over our once fair land.

      Labour would regret not having Greens beside them to take some of the flak. Everyone would turn on Labour and be breathing down their necks, dissing everything they do wrong. National would be going into spasms of internal and external hate, the sight of them being like snakes shedding skins, and at the same time swallowing smaller snakes would be gruesome. The country would be in disarray with no-one getting anything they wanted, and a whole lot of hate and despair swilling around. The Hobbits that care about the Shire had better look lively and be wise. That story is an analogy for us.

  12. karol121 12
    3 September 2020 at 4:41 pm

    AND THE HORSES ARE ON THE TRACK…

  13. georgecom 13
    3 September 2020 at 6:22 pm

    another disasterous poll for National. Collins should be thinking about what she might put in her resignation/knifing speech when Luxon takes over.

    I would expect to see the Greens vote drop a few %.

    However, looking at wasted votes and NZF votes at 6%, if the Greens failed to get into parliament that would account for around 10% of the final vote not being counted in the party seats, thus very likely giving Labour a 5% odd boost in the make up of Parliament. So even if they dipped slightly below 50%, wasted votes plus other parties not cracking the 5% threshold would very likely deliver a majority Labout government on these results.

    Of interest, given this analysis, would Goldsmith make it back at number 4 on the Nats list?
    by my rough reckoning it would only take 3 or 4 of the anticipated ‘defeated’ electorates to stay Blue and Paora would be out. Making in necessary for him to win Epsom

  14. ScottGN 14
    3 September 2020 at 7:24 pm

    While I support getting rid of the 5% threshold – every vote should count – we have had the threshold as part of our MMP system for nearly 25 years now, that’s 9 elections counting this year.

    You would have thought that the Greens might have had the bright idea by now, to go and find an electorate they could win and keep, to save themselves from this triennial dance with death.

    After all their compatriots in Australia, Canada and the UK have all managed to forge a constituency beachhead under a Westminster parliamentary system even though they have all been massively disadvantaged by their respective electoral systems.