TV One Colmar Brunton Poll

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1. BM 1

   19 July 2015 at 6:14 pm

   If National won again in 2017, do you think the knives would come out for Little?

   Or is Labour thinking a a bit more long term these days.
   • Lanthanide 1.1

     19 July 2015 at 6:19 pm

     Too early to tell, and it depends what the margin of the loss was.

     And whether GR was deputy.
   • sabine 1.2

     19 July 2015 at 6:19 pm

     If Nationals support drops again, do you think the knives will come out for Bill English Mr. Surplus, Nick Smith Mr. There is not Housing Crisis, Ms. Bennett All the Benefits are Mine. Mine. Mine?

     Just asking. you know.
     • keyman 1.2.1

       19 July 2015 at 7:11 pm

       iam hoping the pitch forks will come out they have promised the brighter future a hollow promise deserves a stiff push back
   • Colonial Rawshark 1.3

     19 July 2015 at 6:20 pm

     If Little scored as low as 25% or 27%, it would be a leadership contest again.
   • BM 1.4

     19 July 2015 at 6:27 pm

     Right, so you reckon 30 is the cut off point.

     I have a feeling NZ first will do a deal with National at the next election shutting out Labour.
     • Lanthanide 1.4.1

       19 July 2015 at 6:34 pm

       Quite possibly. I think National have to get to around 40-42% in order for NZFirst to credibly go with Labour / Greens. Or in other words, if National were on 44% and Lab/Greens on 44-46%, I think NZFirst would still go with National.

       The picture is a lot clearer now, with Conservatives having self-destructed. National dodged a bullet with that one.
       • BM 1.4.1.1

         19 July 2015 at 6:45 pm

         Still think there’s a real untapped market there, Colin Craig certainly wasn’t the guy to harness it though.

         Fuck, what a weirdo.
         • Clemgeopin 1.4.1.1.1

           19 July 2015 at 9:26 pm

           Not much different from lots of equally, if not more weirdo past and present ACT ‘leaders’, though.
       • leftie 1.4.1.2

         19 July 2015 at 6:53 pm

         @Lanthanide

         I do not think NZ First will go with National.
         • Lanthanide 1.4.1.2.1

           19 July 2015 at 7:01 pm

           They can work with either. Depends on the numbers. My contention is NZFirst won’t want a ‘change of government’ if the numbers reasonably support the status quo.
           • Colonial Rawshark 1.4.1.2.1.1

             19 July 2015 at 8:05 pm

             Peters wants a legacy…propping up a bunch of NATs who gleefully knifed him in the back is probably not it
             • Lanthanide …

               19 July 2015 at 9:29 pm

               Speaker of the house is a pretty good legacy. Think Labour would give him that?
             • Clemgeopin …

               19 July 2015 at 9:32 pm

               I don’t think Winston works with such a narrow outlook. He is a master politician. One of the very best in town. See his brilliance in this interview from just yesterday:

               http://www.3news.co.nz/tvshows/thenation/interview-winston-peters-2015071813#axzz3gKPRfr00
         • Rozgonz 1.4.1.2.2

           22 July 2015 at 4:29 pm

           You mean you hope
     • Skinny 1.4.2

       19 July 2015 at 8:03 pm

       That’s comical Blind Man. Winston won’t want to be going out unpopular, having to prop up a poison chalice. The senior statesman of New Zealand politics knows what common sense means and National have showed little since they took power.
       • BM 1.4.2.1

         19 July 2015 at 8:12 pm

         Nah, next election will be the last for Key and Peters, they’ll kiss and make up

         Facts are ,NZ first has longevity as Nationals MAIN coalition partner, not as competition with the greens in a Labour led government.

         Just look at Northland, obviously National voting people have no problem with NZ First.
         • Clemgeopin 1.4.2.1.1

           19 July 2015 at 9:37 pm

           Good points there.
   • Rob 1.5

     19 July 2015 at 9:20 pm

     If National lose in 2017 will Key be gone by lunchtime?
   • G C 1.6

     19 July 2015 at 11:10 pm

     National axed Don Brash and Labour do like a good leadership change. I think Andrew Little is suitable as leader going into 2017. The socialist ‘Robertson Ardern’ combo would amount to a ‘dead cat bounce’ in the polls at best.

     If Labour looses in 2017 he’ll be dumped quick smart.
   • Facetious 1.7

     20 July 2015 at 7:09 am

     It will happen well before 2017. In 2016 GR will take over Labour leadership.
   • Rozgonz 1.8

     22 July 2015 at 4:31 pm

     Angry Andy won’t make the next election as Labour Leader let alone the one after it
2. RedLogix 2

   19 July 2015 at 6:20 pm

   What does surprise me a little is the continued strength of NZ1.

   Note how ACT, UF and MP have all more or less vanished because they could not maintain relevance. But The Greens and NZ1 are saying things which resonate.

   The Greens are in it for the long haul, but of NZ1? What happens when Winston eventually retires? And where will that constituency go to?
   • Colonial Rawshark 2.1

     19 July 2015 at 6:25 pm

     NZF has legs.
   • Sacha 2.2

     19 July 2015 at 6:26 pm

     If Labour keep up the right-wing dogwhistling, they’re bound to attract 1 or 2% of Winston’s mob. And lose some to the Greens.
     • Bill 2.2.1

       19 July 2015 at 6:29 pm

       They won’t attract any NZF vote because NZF can always dog-whistle louder and further on the xenophobic front.

       But I agree that they will bleed to the Greens if they keep up with their shit.
       • Lanthanide 2.2.1.1

         19 July 2015 at 6:39 pm

         Fine by me. I’d rather both the Greens and Labour have distinct policy platforms, rather than the last election where Labour weren’t all that different from the Greens.

         For the record I voted Greens last year, due to them having a specific policy on Christchurch that was a lot more credible than Labour’s. Otherwise I’m a Labour voter.
         • Brendon Harre 2.2.1.1.1

           20 July 2015 at 1:56 am

           Lanthanide which particular Green policies did you like for Christchurch?
           • Lanthanide 2.2.1.1.1.1

             20 July 2015 at 8:55 am

             https://www.greens.org.nz/policy/smarter-economy/greener-christchurch

             From the full policy:

             The focus for the Council needs to be on what it can afford and what Cantabrians need, not on projects that are putting it under pressure to sell their well performing assets. Selling strategic assets, such as shares in the airport and port companies, or energy company Orion, to meet the current shortfall facing the Council is short-term thinking. These assets have strategic and regional importance and provide important dividend and revenue streams to the Council.

             More flexibility around the implementation of the $4.8 billion earthquake cost-sharing deal between the Council and the Crown is a much sounder option. The Green Party will commit to working with the Council on the cost-sharing agreement to remove any financial pressure on the Council to sell their strategic assets.

             As a part of a more flexible approach, the Green Party will open up the books on the anchor projects, including proposed costings, business cases, and how the projects stack up when considered against similar facilities in other centres, much of which is being kept secret by the National Government.23

             Postponing construction on some of these projects, particularly the covered stadium, will be a major saving for the Council and help balance the Council’s budget without needing to sell assets.

             I’ve been saying since it was announced that the covered stadium will never be built, and the convention center will never be built according to its current plans. AFAIK Labour didn’t have any specific concrete policy in this area, but the Greens did.

             Since I live in CHCH, this was a pretty self-serving voting choice on my part, but I think these are also the right things to do for our 2nd largest city in the long term.
       • Colonial Rawshark 2.2.1.2

         19 July 2015 at 6:51 pm

         But I agree that they will bleed to the Greens if they keep up with their shit.

         in other words, the continuation of a long drawn out trend.
     • G C 2.2.2

       19 July 2015 at 11:27 pm

       “Dogwhistling” – what a tired old expression. Labour have played brilliant political theatre here. The past week has diffidently been a big win for Labour and surely will renew vigour and booth morale within.
       • Colonial Rawshark 2.2.2.1

         19 July 2015 at 11:52 pm

         apart from splitting the activists and causing dozens of resignations from Young Labour you mean
         • G C 2.2.2.1.1

           20 July 2015 at 12:09 am

           The last policy idea I heard coming from Young Labour was to fund more gender reassignment surgeries. That went down like a tone of bricks and was poorly timed.

           Young Labour is fully of ineffective, humanists blinded by individualism AND castrated by Political Correctness… …so forgive me for not shedding a tear over their resignations.
           • Mike S 2.2.2.1.1.1

             20 July 2015 at 1:14 am

             +1

             If they’re resigning over this issue then they ain’t real Labour anyway. Good riddance.
             • Stephanie Rodgers …

               20 July 2015 at 9:33 am

               Precisely who do you think does a lot of the legwork for election campaigns – putting up hoardings, signwaving, leafletting, doorknocking?

               Hint: it rhymes with Young Smabour.
               • Galeandra …

                 20 July 2015 at 12:12 pm

                 In my electorate it’s actually grey tops like me who disproportionately have time & inclination.
                 Hint: it rhymes with ‘good-neighbour’, and commitment doesn’t come just from paying union dues.
               • Sabine …

                 20 July 2015 at 12:43 pm

                 I saw a lot of Young Nats during the election in Westieland where I work and play.
                 I saw Phil Twyford in his red bus doing street corners, every effn day of the week, rain and shine.
                 I saw the young guy from Mana and the Mana volunteers.
                 I did see a lot of Labour volunteers, however they did not call themselves Young Labour.
                 The ones that i did not see at all where the Greens and Young Labour.

                 And yes I agree with what GV said above. If they – Young Labour – are resigning over this, then maybe they need to find a place that accommodates them better.
               • Ron …

                 20 July 2015 at 8:47 pm

                 Certainly not the youth in Labour or the Greens round here.
           • Charles 2.2.2.1.1.2

             20 July 2015 at 9:43 am

             That’s because you think people live in a vacuum?

             There is more traditional Labour ideology in gender re-assignment surgery policies than there is in “stopping foreign investment”.

             It’s not a long explanation, but I won’t bother since those that know, know, and those that say stuff like you don’t want to hear.
   • Lanthanide 2.3

     19 July 2015 at 6:26 pm

     I guess Winston and NZ1 were substantially buoyed by their electorate win?

     If Shane Jones steps into Winston’s shoes, I think he could keep the party going for another election or two. Hard to say really.
     • Colonial Rawshark 2.3.1

       19 July 2015 at 6:52 pm

       Nah Jones is not getting anywhere near the NZF chair, I reckon that whole thing was a Winston publicity ploy.
   • marty mars 2.4

     19 July 2015 at 6:45 pm

     I don’t think the Māori Party have disappeared or are likely to. Marama Fox is a very good politician imo.
3. Sacha 3

   19 July 2015 at 6:24 pm

   It’s one poll that only takes in the first half of the week. I’d hold any major analysis until another couple of periods at least. Trends count – and the economic confidence one is worth watching.
   • mickysavage 3.1

     19 July 2015 at 6:34 pm

     Agreed although drop in Key’s support as preferred PM unsurprising and must be troubling the nats.
     • Jester 3.1.1

       19 July 2015 at 7:11 pm

       The elephant in the room is Andrews at 8%.

       Mickey, 75% of Labour just don’t rate him, so if that’s true who in your oppinion is the one to excite Labour and conversely excite NZ swinging voters.
       • Colonial Rawshark 3.1.1.1

         19 July 2015 at 7:15 pm

         Little is doing fine on 8%, slow and steady is all that is needed at this point. Would be good to be in double digits by the end of the year though.
       • Anne 3.1.1.2

         19 July 2015 at 7:51 pm

         75% of Labour voters (I presume you mean) still don’t know him Jester. That will change over the next 2 years. Don’t forget Helen Clark dropped to 4-5% then went on to become prime minister.
     • James 3.1.2

       19 July 2015 at 7:17 pm

       So Key is on 40% and Little on 8% and you think that would have the Nats concerned.

       wow.
       • Lanthanide 3.1.2.1

         19 July 2015 at 7:43 pm

         Oppositions typically don’t win elections – governments lose them. Especially third term governments.
       • RedLogix 3.1.2.2

         19 July 2015 at 7:54 pm

         Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but generally the incumbent PM is always well ahead in the preferred PM poll.

         In other words there is a huge bias in this poll and I’m sure why they even bother measuring it, much less publishing it, without giving some indication how large this built-in bias is.
         • te reo putake 3.1.2.2.1

           19 July 2015 at 8:02 pm

           Nicely put, RL. The question is both irrelevant and also kinda weird. If I say I’d prefer,say, Winston Peters, am I saying I want NZ First to lead the next Government or am I saying I want him to lead the Government we have today? If I nominate Andrew Little am I saying he should join the National Party?

           I reckon most people just say the name of the current PM, because that’s the first thing that pops into their heads. ‘Prime Minister? Er, it’s John Key isn’t it?’ That sort of thing.
         • Matthew Hooton 3.1.2.2.2

           19 July 2015 at 8:05 pm

           That was not true of Jim Bolger.
         • Anne 3.1.2.2.3

           19 July 2015 at 8:09 pm

           Yes, prime ministers are always way ahead of other party leaders. My guess is most people are so distant from the political scene that the only name they can be sure of is the PM’s’s name – whoever it may be.

           I remember back in ‘the good old days’ (yeah it was a long time ago) being asked by a pollster which Labour MP most impressed me. I only knew the name of one and that was Eddie Isbey (he’s been dead for decades) so I said Eddie Isbey.
           • RedBaronCV 3.1.2.2.3.1

             20 July 2015 at 7:53 am

             Actually I have a fond memeory of Eddie Isbey -dissing Muldoon
             • Anne …

               20 July 2015 at 3:21 pm

               It must have been around 1970 but that might be why I remember him. Muldoon would have been Finance Minister.
         • Keir 3.1.2.2.4

           19 July 2015 at 8:16 pm

           Key was ahead in the preferred PM poll from May 07, and Clark was level pegging or ahead in the run-up to ’99. But yes, there’s a tendency to prefer incumbents, but on the other hand NZ voters do tend to re-elect incumbent PMs.
           • gobsmacked 3.1.2.2.4.1

             19 July 2015 at 8:28 pm

             Yep.

             https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008

             Funny how many people prefer to rely on their fixed and faulty memory to one second of Google.
       • Stuart Munro 3.1.2.3

         19 July 2015 at 8:01 pm

         Leadership popularity is almost completely meaningless – Key himself was basically unknown when he toppled Clark.
         • Matthew Hooton 3.1.2.3.1

           19 July 2015 at 8:13 pm

           That’s not true at all. One of the more comical examples of how Key was extraordinarily well known before becoming PM was when the Dom-Post printed the so-called “terrorism files” including transcripts of the so-called Urewera “terrorists” talking about assassinating the prime minister. But they said they weren’t interested in the current one, but the new guy who was about to become PM. Of course, I recognise this was all big talk nonsense from some loonies, but it’s still an example of how Key really did take the political scene by storm after he rolled Brash and particularly after Waiting Day 2007 and the Aroha Ireland thing – and then the compromise with Clark over smacking.
           • Skinny 3.1.2.3.1.1

             19 July 2015 at 8:39 pm

             Hooton after the mad professor Don Brash and slugger Bill English the 50 million dollar man John Key would have been a welcome change.

             How’s your hamstrings holding up for the big runathon?
             • Matthew Hooton …

               19 July 2015 at 8:47 pm

               Hamstrings all good, thanks.
               • Skinny …

                 19 July 2015 at 9:05 pm

                 Jolly good, got to stretch em well in this cold weather or ya risk braking down… aka Cory Jane.
           • Stuart Munro 3.1.2.3.1.2

             19 July 2015 at 11:58 pm

             Must have missed the water cooler gossip – I was in Korea – the papers really told us nothing about the man.
       • G C 3.1.2.4

         19 July 2015 at 11:34 pm

         Polling showing Labour could comfortably form a Government if elections were held today should be concerning – especially given the General Election was held less than a year ago.

         Is the “mandate” becoming marginal?
         • Colonial Rawshark 3.1.2.4.1

           19 July 2015 at 11:55 pm

           Labour could comfortably form a government end 2013 as well; too bad there was no election that year – or this one.
           • G C 3.1.2.4.1.1

             20 July 2015 at 12:21 am

             Labour is diffidently turning a corner. The economic downturn is a big opportunity for Labour to suggest viable alternative policies. The public aren’t completely naïve – they know National are introducing many policies originally developed by Labour, yet watered-down and made ineffectual by National.
         • Rozgonz 3.1.2.4.2

           22 July 2015 at 4:37 pm

           The mandate is set every 3 years at election time my friend and not by some opinion poll mid cycle. And I think National would be very happy with 47% support right now. I would consider that a mandate rather than cobbling together some unworkable coalition who at best can only muster 32% support.
4. Bill 4

   19 July 2015 at 6:27 pm

   So Labour made no inroads to NZF support in spite of throwing a Winston line. (Quelle surprise!).

   They may or may not have gained whopping 1% on National. (Margin of error blah)

   And they just might have lost 3% of their base to the Greens.
   • Clemgeopin 4.1

     19 July 2015 at 6:38 pm

     The Greens are the easy riders. Labout does the hard yards.
     • gobsmacked 4.1.1

       19 July 2015 at 7:05 pm

       Please tell us about all the issues where Labour have led and the Greens have followed. Since 2008, at least.

       CGT? Climate change? Raising benefits? Land sales offshore? Anything, actually?

       Let us know about these “hard yards” where the Greens took an easy ride.
       • Colonial Rawshark 4.1.1.1

         19 July 2015 at 7:16 pm

         I knew someone would ask haha

         What it actually reveals is the insider Labour mindset vis a vis themselves and the Greens i.e. the Greens don’t have to take any serious positions on anything because they will never be in a position to be responsible in power for following through.
         • Bill 4.1.1.1.1

           19 July 2015 at 7:25 pm

           I’m absently wondering if a similar mindset prevailed in Scottish Labour vis a vis themselves and the SNP right on up until their spectacular vanishing act.
         • marty mars 4.1.1.1.2

           19 July 2015 at 7:33 pm

           I’m pretty sure clem voted Mana last time so hardly insider Labour mindset – they would always vote labour come hell or high water
           • Colonial Rawshark 4.1.1.1.2.1

             19 July 2015 at 7:39 pm

             ahhhhh ok
           • Clemgeopin 4.1.1.1.2.2

             19 July 2015 at 7:56 pm

             “I’m pretty sure Clem voted Mana last time

             Yes, I did.
   • cancerman 4.2

     19 July 2015 at 9:18 pm

     I doubt this poll will have shown the really effect of Labours declarations on foreign house buyers. Will be interesting to see in future polls.
   • G C 4.3

     19 July 2015 at 11:38 pm

     I’d be interested to know who former Conservative Party voters are now favouring?
5. gobsmacked 5

   19 July 2015 at 6:31 pm

   Presumably Labour’s expectation was to lose some to the Greens (“PC Liberal intelligentsia” – here I am!). And to take votes from Nats/Winston, for a net opposition gain.

   Well, they were half right …

   (But I accept it’s too soon really, most voters aren’t politics/media junkies, we’ll need a few weeks of polling for a definitive answer)
6. te reo putake 6

   19 July 2015 at 7:18 pm

   Probably should have added this in the post, but well done the Greens. Is it possible that the 1% the Nats dropped was won by James Shaw for them and Labour’s lift came from elsewhere?
   • Colonial Rawshark 6.1

     19 July 2015 at 7:27 pm

     Shaw has that X factor which will pull in some intelligent blue vote…
     • te reo putake 6.1.1

       19 July 2015 at 7:29 pm

       Yep, that’s what I’m thinking. It’s possible that he can draw votes away from National by appealing to people who are disillusioned, but don’t want to vote labour or NZF. Especially now that the Conservatives are goners.
     • BM 6.1.2

       19 July 2015 at 8:06 pm

       Only if the greens show they’re willing to go into coalition with National, otherwise no chance.
     • Skinny 6.1.3

       19 July 2015 at 8:25 pm

       Yes he was a wise choice as Norman’s replacement and equally smart is popping Genter into the finance role. I’ve found Juliet excellent to work with on common issues.
       Labour will need to get someone young along side Andrew Little as his deputy. Probably see Adern put there fairly soon I would imagine, be a smart decision for a few reasons.
       • Colonial Rawshark 6.1.3.1

         19 July 2015 at 9:11 pm

         Sure, but note that Ardern simply isn’t that politically talented. B/B- material.
         • cancerman 6.1.3.1.1

           19 July 2015 at 9:21 pm

           I agree have seen her a number of times talking in public and she isn’t quick on her feet when going off script. She is like a rugby player in an after match interview.
         • Skinny 6.1.3.1.2

           19 July 2015 at 9:44 pm

           Point and wave works a treat, sign of the times. Once in power deputy goes to a partners party 🙂
           • Colonial Rawshark 6.1.3.1.2.1

             19 July 2015 at 9:47 pm

             heh
         • G C 6.1.3.1.3

           19 July 2015 at 11:42 pm

           yes, yes, keep the ‘Roberson Ardern’ combo on the kiddies menu.
7. Michael 7

   19 July 2015 at 8:36 pm

   31% is a bare minimum for Labour to pose as a credible alternative government. It also needs to show it can work with NZF and the Greens. It did work with NZF, between 2005 and 2008, but has always shunned the Greens (probably because it’s “new friends in the Business Community” don’t like them). Labour now needs to make sure it doesn’t lose its latest rating. I’d also like to see it appeal to the politically disengaed (aka it’s former base) by devising progressive policies but I realise that’s just a pipe dream now.
   • Skinny 7.1

     19 July 2015 at 8:47 pm

     No party will chase the missing voters with policies that turn off sure voters, the last election clearly showed the fuckers prefer to stay under the radar.
   • Colonial Rawshark 7.2

     19 July 2015 at 9:09 pm

     31% is a bare minimum for Labour to pose as a credible alternative government.

     Even at that level, 2 out of 5 votes in Parliament that a Labour Govt will need to pass legislation will have to come from other parties. A large number of Cabinet Ministers would also need to come from other parties.
     • te reo putake 7.2.1

       19 July 2015 at 9:13 pm

       Well, that’s a good thing, isn’t it? I’m cool with sharing power with the other two parties; they’ve both got things to offer a coalition. The Greens more so than NZF, I reckon, but MMP means taking into account the views of your support parties. Unless they’re franchises like ACT who just put up policies National really want an excuse to do anyway.
       • Colonial Rawshark 7.2.1.1

         19 July 2015 at 9:20 pm

         Yep agree as that is the nature and reality of MMP.
   • G C 7.3

     19 July 2015 at 11:50 pm

     Perhaps the Green Party will dry up like a plant deprived of water. If economic conditions continue to decline the voting public could rally, ‘doubling-down’ on Labour in a effort to change the government.
8. Eralc 8

   19 July 2015 at 8:50 pm

   The poll was held in July, not June.
   • te reo putake 8.1

     19 July 2015 at 9:02 pm

     Fixed, ta.
9. James 9

   19 July 2015 at 9:01 pm

   “31% is a bare minimum for Labour to pose as a credible alternative government”

   No its not when the other main party is in the high 40’s.

   Labour havn’t been credible for years.
10. Sadbuttrue 10

    19 July 2015 at 9:18 pm

    great…6 months on…no policy, leader rooted at 8% , grant Robertson missing in action…this is all tits up….here is some interesting facts…since union got the vote the two biggest programs on labour leadership has been on union people and not one on Labour leaders…what does this tell you.
    Sigh….time to vote strategic now…don’t vote
    • Clemgeopin 10.1

      19 July 2015 at 10:02 pm

      Do the same for the first flag referendum vote.
      You are a NACTY or an ACTNA?
11. Atiawa 11

    19 July 2015 at 9:36 pm

    NZ voters have more interest in scrutinizing the All Black coach’s performance than the Prime Minister’s, especially this far out from the next election.
    Little needs to slowly chip away and continue to establish his credentials with the electorate.
    The economy and the National government will do the rest for him.
12. Mike the Savage One 12

    20 July 2015 at 12:16 am

    Trying to win those votes from National, those “centre” votes, does not seem to be bringing enough support. Who votes National? The very persons that can live with rising house prices in Auckland, as their “wealth” increases. Those that have businesses and are professionals in the urban centres, they may be more pessimistic about the future, but are still safe. They love to keep their cars, few use public transport, and rather wish to keep things as they are, those are the “centrists” voting Nats.

    The first ones feeling the looming slow down, possible recession, will be the ones last hired, the ones in the blue collar and also common “service” jobs, and the ones living in the largely primary industry reliant regions, now facing gloomy times.

    As for business operators, they are hard to win over by Labour, as they are very profit driven entrepreneurs, who have in their vast majority never felt that attracted to parties with a social conscience and a tendency to regulate and “manage” economic activities.

    I still cannot believe it, that Labour seem to be less motivated, and do not even try to engage with the hundreds of thousands of non voters, who are diverse, but must surely have some concerns about their lives and future.

    We will be in for another repeat of the past elections, unless some profound changes are made. Greens sit firmly between ten to 15 percent, NZ First seems stable at 7 percent, maybe able to win 8 to 10 percent in the next election, but Labour, well, I am still not convinced they can get their act together soon enough.

    As for a Labour, Greens and NZ First alternative, well, who knows which side Winston will choose in the end?
    • G C 12.1

      20 July 2015 at 12:29 am

      I totally agree. Appealing to business… …replacing Grant Robertson with a new economics spokes person would be a good start.
13. upnorth 13

    20 July 2015 at 7:09 am

    My gut feeling is there will a confidence vote on Little soon with him surviving but a complete rehash of the front bench.

    All done and dusted by Xmas so 2015 is all about a team working together towards 2017 BUT and it is a big BUT – it will all fall down because there is no one in the pool of Labour MP who can talk economy and finance – that is middle ground – tinkering with tax rates and employment laws is so low level the middle just dont give a dam about that stuff.

    Interest rates will be low for 2016 and 2017 which means provincial NZ will weather the storm – so Labour needs a burning platform – they have none – so sad
14. ScottGN 14

    20 July 2015 at 7:15 am

    If anyone was ever in any doubt that the NZherald’s so-called Deputy Political Editor Claire Trevett was just a National Party hack, there’s ample proof in the absolutely crap piece she posted in the herald online yesterday evening.
15. Sabine 15

    20 July 2015 at 8:57 am

    this is what is important

    Quote: The economic confidence survey continues its steady decline. Only 36% of respondents think the future will be better, down an astonishing 9% from last month. 41 % believe things are going to get worse, up a whopping 10%.

    the rest does not matter.

    if the confidence falls further, if farms start failing left, right and centre, if houses continue to raise 45.000 within not even 6 month, if job losses continue, then this can’t be good for National.

    Can Labour, the Greens, NZ First make hay out of this sorry situation? No idea, looking at this site, supposedly a ‘left’ orientated site, a site for the ‘opposition’ and I would not be surprised if National gets another go, cause clearly Labour does it too and worse, and can’t be trusted and when will they ditch Andrew Little.
    Frankly with Friends like these the Party does not need enemies. 🙂

    Maybe really we have to have bodies dead in ditches, hungry kids begging in Queenstreet. But as on Lady said the other day (pop up on my FB Feed in regards to shops turning on sprinklers on homeless sleeping in their entrance ways), maybe we should just abolish the City Mission and Food Banks and have the homeless work for blankets and a cuppa soup. Now that would teach them dignity and get them in a house pronto.
    • Kevin 15.1

      20 July 2015 at 4:25 pm

      NZ First go with Labour and the Greens? You have to be kidding me. And so long as Labour keeps dropping the ball and proving that it’s unelectable, National will always be in power.
    • Kevin 15.2

      20 July 2015 at 4:31 pm

      “maybe we should just abolish the City Mission and Food Banks and have the homeless work for blankets and a cuppa soup. ”

      Considering that most people who go to the City Mission and Food Banks are just there for free grub, too right we should abandon them. Instead have free lessons on how to budget and cook a cheap feed.

      As for the homeless considering it costs more to have someone homeless than what it does to house them then you give them subsidised housing. Not only does it make ethical and moral sense it makes economic sense as well.

      As for making them work I’m not one of those make them work for the dole types so no – too much unnecessary bureaucracy and wouldn’t be worth it anyway. Kind of like those work schemes in the 70s which turned out to be a complete failure. Give people real jobs, not fake ones.
16. Kevin 16

    20 July 2015 at 4:23 pm

    Little should have been given the boot after the Chinese fiasco. He is a gorm with all the charm thereof. Labour needs another Lange.
    • Mike the Savage One 16.1

      20 July 2015 at 10:10 pm

      Labour needs another Norman Kirk, I dare think, one who survives the challenges of power and leads us into the future, one that can easily be planned and charted by a competent Labour leader and his team, if they only had the will to do so.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Kirk

      “Kirk had a reputation as the most formidable debater of his time and once famously said that people don’t want much, just “Someone to love, somewhere to live, somewhere to work and something to hope for.” “
      • McFlock 16.1.1

        20 July 2015 at 10:22 pm

        noooooooooooooooooooooooo

        Labour doesn’t need a saviour figure.

        Labour doesn’t need a miracle.

        Labour will stabilise, grow more confident, and learn from its mistakes.
        It’s starting to already – regardlise of the last week, there are no caucus meltdowns, chris carters playing silly buggers, and pundit speculations about the inner workings of caucus seem to be more navel-gazing than reliably-sourced from Labour offices, let alone caucus members.
        • Mike the Savage One 16.1.1.1

          20 July 2015 at 10:24 pm

          Cheers mate, have another one, while the going is gooood!
          • McFlock 16.1.1.1.1

            20 July 2015 at 10:27 pm

            Yeah, sorry. The ghost of norman kirk will save us, even if cunliffe didn’t.
            • Ergo Robertina 16.1.1.1.1.1

              20 July 2015 at 10:40 pm

              You can’t compare Kirk with Cunliffe.
              Cunliffe had a bit of an identity crisis with his faux moves to the left (I’m never sure if he was disingenuous or a lost soul – probably both).
              Kirk’s defining feature was his strong sense of self, and his confidence in New Zealand’s place in the world.
              • McFlock …

                20 July 2015 at 10:53 pm

                Like Lange?
                • Ergo Robertina …

                  20 July 2015 at 11:16 pm

                  Lange didn’t have Kirk’s strength. He was ill-suited to the machinations of politics and went into his own shell. Bruce Jesson’s Fragments of Labour has interesting detail of Lange’s discomfort and singularity in certain situations.
                  Kirk had the ruthless streak. In at least one instance he announced the retirement of a long-serving MP who needed to move on.
                  • McFlock …

                    20 July 2015 at 11:44 pm

                    lol nice move by kirk.

                    Anyway, I have a cynical bent, as folks might have noticed. I get suspicious of folks clutching on to saviour-figures – the vast majority of the time they’re wrong, and the rest of the time things go to pot when the saviour moves on.
                    • Ergo Robertina …

                      20 July 2015 at 11:59 pm

                      Yeah, I tend to agree with that.
    • Clemgeopin 16.2

      21 July 2015 at 12:16 am

      You are lucky that Iprent hasn’t given you the boot yet.
      • te reo putake 16.2.1

        21 July 2015 at 8:09 am

        It’s one of those cases where its more fun to let the troll make a fool of themselves for the enjoyment of the readers, Clemgeopin. But I suspect that sooner or later Kevin will come a cropper.

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