Does anyone have any predictions for the Cabinet reshuffle? (Apart from those portfolios/roles Hipkins has already handed over to Nash, Tinetti and Robertson.) Obviously PMs tend to hold few portfolios other than intelligence services, but what about ...
Yes and the core Nats voters still voted for them - that's why they got 26%. Given their shambolic effort it shows how loyal some voters are. Just as Labour's core delivered them 25% in 2014. The soft centrist voters who backed Helen Clark then John Key ...
not seen since Micky Savage’s time ... a small correction - not since Peter Fraser’s time. Labour got 51.3% in 1946, six years after Savage’s death.
Lewis Dare Holden was chief executive of the Ministry for Culture and Heritage prior to his current SSC role, and I think held that role in 2014, at the time of his namesake's electoral tilt.
I think you might have the wrong Lewis Holden there!
Nice one. Not even Judith's promise to let them keep polluting rivers won them over. Maybe they like 'pretty communists' after all?
Easy to miss some of them. Quite a bit of deadwood in safe seats.
Electoral Commission website suggests 9 Nat list MPs, with 26 electorate MPs: https://electionresults.govt.nz/index.html
Not sure about those calculations. As mentioned in the article, isn't Smith currently no 8 out of their 9 list MPs, with Pugh no. 9?
Might also be interesting to see if new list-only MPs Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith decide to retire from Parliament, if not soon, sometime this term at least. Wouldn't that mean a list lifeline for Maureen Pugh and, er, Harete Hipango? The Herald says ...
Whangarei tells a story repeated across NZ. In 2017 Reti won this seat by 11,000 votes and National won the party vote there handsomely. This time the Whangarei party vote is 46% Labour to 27% Nat (prelim results)
What do you attribute the difference to? Obviously some older, more traditional Nat voters probably favoured voting on election day itself, out of habit. But based on those figures some could argue that Collins' last week wealth tax attacks had an impact?
Quite right. In 1999 Georgina Beyer defeated National's Paul Henry!
Also I think anyone who enrolled in the last couple of months, ie after the rolls were printed?
So these 7 electorates finished last night with leads of under 1000 votes. Based on previous election trends, what chance any of these flipping on special votes?: Whangarei (Nat by 162), Auck Central (Green by 492), Northland (Nat by 742), Invercargill (...
I loved Newshub's description of the final poll tonight as a 'nailbiter'. The only nailbiting thing was whether Labour can govern alone (which the Reid Research Newhub poll suggests they could, just, with 61 seats) or whether it's an arrangement with the ...
If and when Collins goes then Ardern will have seen off 4 National leaders in 3 or so years. The same number as Key managed to inflict on Labour in 8 years, 2008-16 (Clark, Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe).
Yes and the right's path to future victory probably lies in finding a palatable Key-type leader who isn't unlikeable like Bridges and won't scare the centre like Collins or Brash, and also they will have to commit to retain key Labour initiatives (as Key ...
Yes as I understand it Nats and Act had enough MPs to have passed any legislation they wanted between 2008 and 2011 and again between 2014 and 2017. From 2011 to 2014 I think they would have needed votes from either Peter Dunne or the Maori Party.
Do you think some people might have changed their minds? ‘I voted two weeks ago but if an election were held tomorrow, um ...’
Given that more than half of those polled might have actually already voted, those final polls will be almost like the exit polls that happen in other countries.
Thanks. I just like percentages. I do remember 1987. Who would have thought a Labour govt (if I can call it that) would have increased its vote Share after 3 years in power. History repeating?
Bit of a short memory. Labour got 48% in 1987. Also 48% in 1957 and 1972. And 51% in 1946. Hell they even got 47% in an election they lost (1949).
If I recall, in 2014 National won the party vote in every general electorate except four in west and south Auckland but Labour candidates won 27 electorates (21 general + 6 Maori), so only got 5 list MPs in. I don't expect Labour will achieve anything like...
By the way, would Bennett still be on the caucus email list? Adams etc?
Yes and this time it is National who seem more vulnerable to losing votes to smaller parties, obviously Act but also NCs and the various christian parties. Labour may lose a few to the Greens but there are no credible centrist parties like NZF and United ...
But if there's a 9-seat overhang - ie a 129-member Parliament? - then 61 MPs isn't a majority: Labour and Greens would presumably have 68 MPs? (or in fact in that case ACT's 17% would earn 22 seats (with Nats' 41, totalling 63), but Lab-Greens would still ...
Kind of hard to see how this would happen. If National get their shit together, find a popular leader and get back into the mid-40% range by 2023, I don't see Act staying at 7-8%, and certainly not getting even higher. National will want those voters back ...
So you support violence against children being legal or illegal depending on whether you are related to the child? That was the old law. In fact it was similar to the old law that allowed husbands to rape their wives. An exemption To a crime based on ...
Does anyone think the attacks on abortion policy by Christian conservative Nats like Hipango and Ngaro etc are as much about frustration and anger at Collins, who voted for the legislation, as they are desperate slurs against Labour?
I dunno, she loves Samoa so much I'm surprised she's not campaigning in Porirua.
Recent Comments