Mishandled Rena costing Nats votes

Written By: - Date published: 8:02 am, October 21st, 2011 - 51 comments
Categories: disaster, election 2011, polls - Tags: , ,

Unlike some news organisations we don’t usually bother reporting Horizon polls here.  Their numbers generally sound like wonderful news for the political Left, because they tend to rate National led and Labour led coalitions as pretty much neck and neck.  But hyping these results would be intellectually dishonest.  Horizon’s methodology is so different, and their results are so far out of line with other polls, that they simply aren’t credible. (Horizon of course would tell you differently, and they have their own critiques of other polls, as I covered here.)

That being said, and with all due caveats and cautions, I am going to note a Horizon poll this time. It’s not the usual estimate of degrees of support for each party, it’s a question about shifting voting intentions:

Voters swing from National after Rena disaster

Eleven percent of people who voted for National in the 2008 general election say they will not do so when they head to the polls on November 26, because of the way the Government has handled the Rena disaster. The swing means the party’s nationwide support has dropped 3 percent on the eve of the election campaign trail kicking into gear.

A RadioLIVE/HorizonPoll survey found just over half of those who backed the party in 2008, 50.3 percent, believe it could have done more to prevent oil spilling from the ship and polluting the environment.

Sixty-five percent of all New Zealanders also feel more could have been done to prevent the loss of fuel from the ship. … The survey also found 46.8 percent of the 1,961 respondents rated Prime Minister John Key’s response to the crisis as ‘poor to very poor’. …

I’m not aware of any other poll on the impact of  the Rena disaster, so this first indication does seem worth reporting. It confirms that the expected loss of Nat votes is a real effect. In terms of the size of the effect, I don’t trust the Horizon numbers. I suspect that they over estimate the damage (as other Horizon polls overestimate support for the Left). But it’s early days yet. My guess is that National will keep losing votes as this crisis drags on, and more and more questions are asked about their credibility.

In other “for what it’s worth” poll related news:

Sliver of hope for Labour

A Phil Goff-led Government is unlikely, but becoming more plausible by the day, according to the latest forecast from prediction market website iPredict. …

If ACT lose Epsom and don’t reach the 5 percent threshold, this opens the door for a Labour/Greens/NZ First/Maori coalition, without the need for the Mana Party, whom Labour leader Mr Goff has ruled out working with. Recent polling has put ACT candidate John Banks behind National’s Paul Goldsmith, despite National’s insistence Mr Goldsmith is only campaigning for the party vote.

The Greens are currently expected to win 11 percent of the vote, and a record 14 seats – giving the left-wing bloc a real shot at toppling National. …

A study published last year claimed iPredict was more accurate than most traditional polling at predicting political outcomes.

Interesting times.  I’ll leave you with the most excellent Tom Scott, and his take on the Rena disaster…

51 comments on “Mishandled Rena costing Nats votes ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. mickysavage 1
    21 October 2011 at 8:16 am

    I am not sure but my impression is that Horizon builds up data on users.  If so the shift is of people who declared themselves to be National supporters before the disaster and would be significant. 

  2. tc 2
    21 October 2011 at 8:28 am

    Rena has showed how clueless and lacking in genuine leadership the nats are, no prepared script or CT spin just like chch and pike river.
    A few akl folk of late are also waking up to how screwed over Wodney Johnny and the wrecking crew left them as the local boards impact or lack of kicks in.
    Focus everybody it’s a very close contest, of course granny etc want the folk to think it’s a foregone conclusion, far from it I reckon.

  3. King Kong 3
    21 October 2011 at 9:10 am

    It is terrible to see some on the left quite obviously hoping that the they dont manage to get all the fuel off the Rena and the thing breaks up with a decent ammount of oil covering some good beaches. All in the name of their side getting some traction in the polls.

    • r0b 3.1
      21 October 2011 at 12:08 pm

      Yeah I knew some a hole would accuse me of that.  So glad you didn’t disappoint KK.

    • Draco T Bastard 3.2
      21 October 2011 at 12:24 pm

      We’d much prefer if the incident was well handled but it wasn’t. You want us to sit back and not do the best we can to change what is obviously a government that continuously fails its people? Maybe you’d prefer it if we clapped them on the back and said well, you tried?

    • mik e 3.3
      21 October 2011 at 5:00 pm

      KK with your abilities you able to in one foul swoop fix it

  4. pollywog 4
    21 October 2011 at 9:20 am

    A coalition with NZ first…are you SERIOUSLY ?

    Winston needs to pack his shit up along with Bed n Breakfast (Brash n Banks) and head out to pasture.

    What possible contribution can these fossilised dinosaurs contribute to NZ that they haven’t already ? They’ll be as marginalised and irrelevent as Roger Douglas, that other toothless relic who did fuck all but take up space in the big house for the past 3 years.

  5. Lanthanide 5
    21 October 2011 at 9:44 am

    I don’t really believe iPredict is truly a prediction market. The vote percentages are largely influenced by the polls that get published, and speculation / profit taking outside of that.

    Seems difficult for iPredict to be so much more accurate when a lot of it is just people using the published poll data to take money off each other.

    • Blighty 5.1
      21 October 2011 at 9:57 am

      yeah. the ipredict predictions for the party results just follow the polls (or move ahead of them when insiders hear the results before the published).

      It’s real predictive value is in events where participants can have some information or insight that is not generally known. Such as people who know for sure whether someone is standing in a seat before they make an announcement.

    • Draco T Bastard 5.2
      21 October 2011 at 12:27 pm

      IMO, iPredict is a prefect example of the “free-market” especially the stock market. People buying and selling from each to make a profit while not producing anything of value.

      • Lanthanide 5.2.1
        21 October 2011 at 12:43 pm

        In iPredicts case, the ‘value’ is in the research of prediction market behaviour.

        It’s run by Victoria university and apparently has been losing a lot of money and hasn’t yet made a profit. So they must think there’s sufficient value in the research to have continued doing it.

      • Colonial Viper 5.2.2
        21 October 2011 at 6:36 pm

        The international equity markets are completely controlled and fraudulent. As you most likely know, they are exactly the opposite of “free markets”.

  6. BWS 6
    21 October 2011 at 9:44 am

    So hyping these polls would be “intellectually dishonest”, yet this is what you do.

    • Blighty 6.1
      21 October 2011 at 9:50 am

      I don’t think you could possibly describe Anthony’s post as ‘hyping’ the poll. If anything, he’s downplaying it far more than the news did last night.

    • Colonial Viper 6.2
      21 October 2011 at 10:09 am

      Can you not tell the difference between “hyping” and a cautious discussion looking at different scenarios?

      • BWS 6.2.1
        21 October 2011 at 10:26 am

        So the title “Mishandled Rena costing Nats votes” in the you know, TITLE, isn’t hyping a dodgy poll?

        • gobsmacked 6.2.1.1
          21 October 2011 at 11:10 am

          The poll was part of the lead story on 3 News at 6 pm yesterday. They have a few more viewers than the Standard, so a blog commenting on a major MSM story is hardly “hype”.

          Certainly this post has far more credibility than BWS who absurdly claimed (on here) that Labour MPs shouting “William!” to a colleague were in fact shouting to the man who tried to jump in Parliament, and therefore this meant Labour were in some way implicated. Yes, really.

          That wasn’t just drawing a long bow, it was re-inventing archery!

        • Lanthanide 6.2.1.2
          21 October 2011 at 11:21 am

          No, that’s not hype.

          Hype would be:
          “Rena disaster devastates National’s poll standing”.

        • queenstfarmer 6.2.1.3
          21 October 2011 at 11:41 am

          I think the title is reasonable.

  7. Zaphod Beeblebrox 7
    21 October 2011 at 9:51 am

    What about the credit downgrade that Jokey and double Dipper said would be the end of the world 3 years earlier? Would have liked to see the public’s response to that.

  8. JS 8
    21 October 2011 at 10:05 am

    Just got our new phone book delivered. OK the font is even smaller than ever, but it is the skinniest smallest white pages I can ever remember. I read somewhere that landline ownership has shrunk something like 40% in the last few years. So if the mainstream polls are only polling by landline (are they?) they cannot reflect 2011 NZ.

  9. randal 9
    21 October 2011 at 10:21 am

    National have turned into a gang of ostriches. anything they dont like they pretend is not even there.
    Or they get their flacks like richard loe and duncan garner to get up on the radio and pretend it is nothing.
    Well they are going to get a big reality check on November 26.

  10. tsmithfield 10
    21 October 2011 at 10:27 am

    I agree there has probably been a knee-jerk reaction with respect to the Rena.

    However, it is now emerging that the operation to remove oil is extremely difficult and complex, that the piping systems were badly damaged and not ready for pumping oil in the first few days, that the rate oil can be pumped anyway is very slow and would not have greatly reduced the oil load even if pumping had been able to start earlier, and that some oil on the beaches was probably inevitable even under the best-case scenario. Also, the government and relevant authorities have been much more visible of late, and appear to be much more on the ball.

    These factors are likely to provide context to the disaster that could well spawn a relief rally in support of the government if the worst-case scenario is avoided. Over-the-top criticism from political parties obviously in electioneering mode could well produce some sympathy vote for National, considering they have been in power when there have been a number of major disasters to deal with.

    So I wouldn’t get too excited on the left just yet.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 10.1
      21 October 2011 at 10:58 am

      Then again the oil clumps will be hitting the beaches all the way until Nov 26. Given the way they have been trumpeting public service cuts for 3 years, the obvious inadequacy of the Maritime Services Authority will be an interesting discussion point for a while yet.

      And how do you think the ‘drill baby, drill’ policy is going to go down in the BoP and East Cape?

      • pollywog 10.1.1
        21 October 2011 at 11:25 am

        Need`to get Hekia ‘Aunty Tom’ Parata down there on the beaches grovelling away in the sand with a bucket scooping up oil i reckon…

        ..and feed her some humble pie for lunch. That should score a few brownie points.

        • BWS 10.1.1.1
          21 October 2011 at 1:08 pm

          Oh nice, more racist slurs against National MPs because they dared to do something so treacherous as not vote Labour.

          • Jum 10.1.1.1.1
            21 October 2011 at 4:09 pm

            No BWS, Hekia Parata really is a nasty piece of work, whatever colour of party or skin she is.

    • queenstfarmer 10.2
      21 October 2011 at 11:51 am

      Agree with your first two paragraphs, but I think the idea of a “relief rally in support of the government” and a “sympathy vote” is rather optimistic.

      This sort of thing is a pretty much a lose-lose situation for whoever is in charge, and whatever the response. It give opposition parties something to seize on, and with smart, albeit possibly unethical, politicking (on a gloves-off, all’s fair in politics basis) can be powerfully exploited.

    • Draco T Bastard 10.3
      21 October 2011 at 12:34 pm

      I agree there has probably been a knee-jerk reaction with respect to the Rena.

      I think of it as more the straw that broke the camels back. Nationals incompetence has been showing for awhile but this was just the final piece of stupidity that has got people thinking and saying that they won’t vote for these idiots again.

      However, it is now emerging that the operation to remove oil is extremely difficult and complex…

      Yeah, that’s because the ship got beaten up by a storm before the oil was removed. If the oil had been removed before that, as it should have been, it probably would have been easier.

      But, hey, I understand your need to excuse Nationals incompetence and stupidity at all costs – after all, you believe them.

      • Lanthanide 10.3.1
        21 October 2011 at 12:48 pm

        “Yeah, that’s because the ship got beaten up by a storm before the oil was removed. If the oil had been removed before that, as it should have been, it probably would have been easier.”

        Yes, you’re essentially correct.

        When the ship was still ‘operational’, before the crew abandoned it, they had the capability to heat the oil up, making it much more viscous and easy to pump around. Remember how they emptied the forward tanks to the back of the ship? There’s no way they could have done it when it was ‘marmite’ consistency in the time they did it (overnight apparently).

        Now the ship has no power, and evidently they have no way to heat up the oil to any large extent, so they’re essentially having to ‘shovel’ it out with an Archimedes screw, instead of pumping it like a liquid as they were earlier.

        • queenstfarmer 10.3.1.1
          21 October 2011 at 3:49 pm

          They interviewed an ex-merchant navy engineer on the radio the other week addressing this very point, saying that wasn’t the case for various technical reasons.

          But seeing that we are discovering that thousands of everyday Kiwis are actually maritime salvage experts who are fully capable of commenting knowledgably on all matters to do with cargo ships, and clearly know just as much if not more than the international experts on the ship itself, who is he to contradict them?

          • Draco T Bastard 10.3.1.1.1
            21 October 2011 at 5:34 pm

            Yes, I recall that interview – he said it could have been done before the storm although he was hedging on the exact time frame he was certain that pumping could have started by the Friday.

          • McFlock 10.3.1.1.2
            21 October 2011 at 5:35 pm

            Lol. So your anecdote about a media-professed expert in the area trumps everyone else’s?
             
            God forbid that we should do anything other than close our eyes and have faith in Maritime NZ. If we started questioning them we might start to think we could have valid opinions on the economy, the competence and ethics of market speculators, or even the competence of golden-boy Key himself. We should never question our betters, who we recognise because of they’re apparent wealth!

          • Jum 10.3.1.1.3
            21 October 2011 at 5:37 pm

            Queenstfarmer,

            This is the best news for Key and backers; I’m not surprised they slowed down their response.

            Get rid of the clean green 100% and you can drill baby drill, dig coal, build more roads, kill more miners with bad regulations.

            And the piece de resistance – that last untapped wilderness lying south of New Zealand, which we once defended but no more – is open for plunder. Thanks John Key. Thanks for betraying us all. Piss off back to your masters in America. We’ll send on the knighthood your grateful backers have organised.

            Key’s and the nz business rotundtable’s dream is coming true. Just why did that container vessel head straight for a disaster on our most pristine beaches?

        • Luxated 10.3.1.2
          21 October 2011 at 8:31 pm

          … making it much more viscous and easy to pump around.

          Less viscous, surely.

  11. Pascal's bookie 11
    21 October 2011 at 12:20 pm

    Dead whales floating up onto beaches wouldn’t be a good omen for the game tonight. #toosoon?

    • ak 11.1
      21 October 2011 at 3:52 pm

      You sense well young Bookie. Omens loom leaden at every dark turn. Putrescent whale/oils foul the strand as fat blue penguins writhe on the foreshore of gloom. Ghostly hootin’ derision at the joice brown lees on the barren banks. Skeletons stir as the golden key dims. Cave Quay St at the wane of the moon.

  12. The Pink Postman 12
    21 October 2011 at 2:07 pm

    I am of course biased ,however I am becoming more and more convinced that the poliical Right are in for a big shock. listen to the people in the street the majority are pissed of to say the least. In fact the world in in rebellion and this is already brushing of in Aotearoa.Im picking that the Greens are going to have a huge increase because the Rena disaster is making people suddenly aware of green issues. Im also wondering if we are on the brink of a world revolution. What is happening around the world was predicted by Hannan Swaffer in the 1950s.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 12.1
      21 October 2011 at 2:17 pm

      The problem is that the media are owned by the 1%. Control the information source, you control the agenda.

      That way you get Fox News and people like Michelle Bachmann, Perry and and Hermann Cain in line for for the US Presidency.

      • Jum 12.1.1
        21 October 2011 at 5:30 pm

        But, Zaphod Beeblebrox,

        the government does not own the blogosphere – yet.

        It does not own Kiwis – yet.

        It does not own our minds – yet.

        It does not own all the paper in New Zealand or all the pens and pencils – yet.

        Every New Zealand flagpole in every town and city in New Zealand is a place of freedom to wave signs and call out – at present.

        Whatever we do in just the next few weeks will determine how much control this government gets to have over us Kiwis – so it’s up to – us.

  13. tsmithfield 13
    21 October 2011 at 4:35 pm

    This quote from the article is enough to prove that the Horizon poll is rubbish:

    “ACT is polling at 5.1 percent…”

    • McFlock 13.1
      21 October 2011 at 5:52 pm

      Knock off 1 or 2% for the margin of error (yeah yeah we don’t need to get into the precise stats of calculating MoE for survey responses approaching zero) and it’s comparable to the other polls.
       
      Although there could well be a bit of a self-selection bias going on at that level, so I’m not saying Horizon are golden. If they turn out to be reasonably close to the election result, though, it might put the cat among the pidgeons. I  suspect they weren’t doing (public) surveys for the 2008 election(companies office says they were still under the name Inflite Advertising until mid 2009). Which will make comparisons between the phone surveys, Horizon, and the election outcome very interesting – but then I’m an analysis geek. I suspect the difference is not so much “one is better than the other at predicting elections” as “one is more accurate for some demographics or questions, another is better for others”.

      Offhand, Horizon results seem to be more consistent than the phone surveys, but if there’s a 20% pickup in interested voters we might find that Horizon is only accurate for the committed voter block, not the floaters. 
       
      There’s no such thing as bad data – just a bad analyst trying to use the wrong data for the wrong purpose 🙂

      • tsmithfield 13.1.1
        21 October 2011 at 6:27 pm

        Just shows how far out of whack it is with other polls that put ACT at the 1% level, which seems to jell much more with reality than 5.1%.

        • McFlock 13.1.1.1
          22 October 2011 at 3:07 pm

          Slightly out of whack on the margins, but not so out of whack that the error margins definitely don’t overlap.

  14. mik e 14
    21 October 2011 at 5:01 pm

    In epsom

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    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • Webworm LA Pop-Up
    Hi,From time to time, I want to bring Webworm into the real world. We did it last year with the Jurassic Park event in New Zealand — which was a lot of fun!And so on Saturday May 11th, in Los Angeles, I am hosting a lil’ Webworm pop-up! I’ve been ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    2 days ago

  • “Feel good” school is out
    Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • 6 Months in, surely our Report Card is “Ignored all warnings: recommend dismissal ASAP”?
    Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy. Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 days ago

  • Bread, and how it gets buttered
    Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Why Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating in the country
    Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 days ago

  • Justice for Gaza?
    The New York Times reports that the International Criminal Court is about to issue arrest warrants for Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, over their genocide in Gaza: Israeli officials increasingly believe that the International Criminal Court is preparing to issue arrest warrants for senior government officials on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • If there has been any fiddling with Pharmac’s funding, we can count on Paula to figure out the fis...
    Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • FastTrackWatch – The case for the Government’s Fast Track Bill
    Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Bernard’s pick 'n' mix for Monday, April 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on Iran killing its rappers, and searching for the invisible Dr. Reti
    span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    3 days ago

  • Auckland Rail Electrification 10 years old
    Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Coalition's dirge of austerity and uncertainty is driving the economy into a deeper recession
    Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Disability Funding or Tax Cuts.
    You make people evil to punish the paststuck inside a sequel with a rotating castThe following photos haven’t been generated with AI, or modified in any way. They are flesh and blood, human beings. On the left is Galatea Young, a young mum, and her daughter Fiadh who has Angelman ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • Of the Goodness of Tolkien’s Eru
    April has been a quiet month at A Phuulish Fellow. I have had an exceptionally good reading month, and a decently productive writing month – for original fiction, anyway – but not much has caught my eye that suggested a blog article. It has been vaguely frustrating, to be honest. ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    3 days ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #17
    A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 21, 2024 thru Sat, April 27, 2024. Story of the week Anthropogenic climate change may be the ultimate shaggy dog story— but with a twist, because here ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • Pastor Who Abused People, Blames People
    Hi,I spent about a year on Webworm reporting on an abusive megachurch called Arise, and it made me want to stab my eyes out with a fork.I don’t regret that reporting in 2022 and 2023 — I am proud of it — but it made me angry.Over three main stories ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago

  • Vic Uni shows how under threat free speech is
    The new Victoria University Vice-Chancellor decided to have a forum at the university about free speech and academic freedom as it is obviously a topical issue, and the Government is looking at legislating some carrots or sticks for universities to uphold their obligations under the Education and Training Act. They ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Winston remembers Gettysburg.
    Do you remember when Melania Trump got caught out using a speech that sounded awfully like one Michelle Obama had given? Uncannily so.Well it turns out that Abraham Lincoln is to Winston Peters as Michelle was to Melania. With the ANZAC speech Uncle Winston gave at Gallipoli having much in ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • 25
    She was born 25 years ago today in North Shore hospital. Her eyes were closed tightly shut, her mouth was silently moving. The whole theatre was all quiet intensity as they marked her a 2 on the APGAR test. A one-minute eternity later, she was an 8.  The universe was ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Fact Brief – Is Antarctica gaining land ice?
    Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is Antarctica gaining land ice? ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Policing protests.
    Images of US students (and others) protesting and setting up tent cities on US university campuses have been broadcast world wide and clearly demonstrate the growing rifts in US society caused by US policy toward Israel and Israel’s prosecution of … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago

  • Open letter to Hon Paul Goldsmith
    Barrie Saunders writes – Dear Paul As the new Minister of Media and Communications, you will be inundated with heaps of free advice and special pleading, all in the national interest of course. For what it’s worth here is my assessment: Traditional broadcasting free to air content through ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: FastTrackWatch – The Case for the Government’s Fast Track Bill
    Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its arguments for such a bold reform. ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago

  • Luxon gets out his butcher’s knife – briefly
    Peter Dunne writes –  The great nineteenth British Prime Minister, William Gladstone, once observed that “the first essential for a Prime Minister is to be a good butcher.” When a later British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, sacked a third of his Cabinet in July 1962, in what became ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • More tax for less
    Ele Ludemann writes – New Zealanders had the OECD’s second highest tax increase last year: New Zealanders faced the second-biggest tax raises in the developed world last year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says. The intergovernmental agency said the average change in personal income tax ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Real News vs Fake News.
    We all know something’s not right with our elections. The spread of misinformation, people being targeted with soundbites and emotional triggers that ignore the facts, even the truth, and influence their votes.The use of technology to produce deep fakes. How can you tell if something is real or not? Can ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Another way to roll
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Share ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Simon Clark: The climate lies you'll hear this year
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Simon Clark. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). This year you will be lied to! Simon Clark helps prebunk some misleading statements you'll hear about climate. The video includes ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Cutting the Public Service
    It is all very well cutting the backrooms of public agencies but it may compromise the frontlines. One of the frustrations of the Productivity Commission’s 2017 review of universities is that while it observed that their non-academic staff were increasing faster than their academic staff, it did not bother to ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    5 days ago

  • Luxon’s demoted ministers might take comfort from the British politician who bounced back after th...
    Buzz from the Beehive Two speeches delivered by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters at Anzac Day ceremonies in Turkey are the only new posts on the government’s official website since the PM announced his Cabinet shake-up. In one of the speeches, Peters stated the obvious:  we live in a troubled ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • This is how I roll over
    1. Which of these would you not expect to read in The Waikato Invader?a. Luxon is here to do business, don’t you worry about thatb. Mr KPI expects results, and you better believe itc. This decisive man of action is getting me all hot and excitedd. Melissa Lee is how ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • The Waitangi Tribunal is not “a roving Commission”…
    …it has a restricted jurisdiction which must not be abused: it is not an inquisition   NOTE – this article was published before the High Court ruled that Karen Chhour does not have to appear before the Waitangi Tribunal Gary Judd writes –  The High Court ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Is Oranga Tamariki guilty of neglect?
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – One of reasons Oranga Tamariki exists is to prevent child neglect. But could the organisation itself be guilty of the same? Oranga Tamariki’s statistics show a decrease in the number and age of children in care. “There are less children ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • Three Strikes saw lower reoffending
    David Farrar writes: Graeme Edgeler wrote in 2017: In the first five years after three strikes came into effect 5248 offenders received a ‘first strike’ (that is, a “stage-1 conviction” under the three strikes sentencing regime), and 68 offenders received a ‘second strike’. In the five years prior to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Luxon’s ruthless show of strength is perfect for our angry era
    Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in politics. That’s refreshing and will be extremely ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • 'Lacks attention to detail and is creating double-standards.'
    TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the two days to 6:06am on Thursday, April 25:Politics: PM Christopher Luxon has set up a dual standard for ministerial competence by demoting two National Cabinet ministers while leaving also-struggling ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • One Night Only!
    Hi,Today I mainly want to share some of your thoughts about the recent piece I wrote about success and failure, and the forces that seemingly guide our lives. But first, a quick bit of housekeeping: I am doing a Webworm popup in Los Angeles on Saturday May 11 at 2pm. ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago

  • What did Melissa Lee do?
    It is hard to see what Melissa Lee might have done to “save” the media. National went into the election with no public media policy and appears not to have developed one subsequently. Lee claimed that she had prepared a policy paper before the election but it had been decided ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17 2024
    Open access notables Ice acceleration and rotation in the Greenland Ice Sheet interior in recent decades, Løkkegaard et al., Communications Earth & Environment: In the past two decades, mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated, partly due to the speedup of glaciers. However, uncertainty in speed derived from satellite products ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Maori Party (with “disgust”) draws attention to Chhour’s race after the High Court rules on Wa...
    Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Who’s Going Up The Media Mountain?
    Mr Bombastic: Ironically, the media the academic experts wanted is, in many ways, the media they got. In place of the tyrannical editors of yesteryear, advancing without fear or favour the interests of the ruling class; the New Zealand news media of today boasts a troop of enlightened journalists dedicated to ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • “That's how I roll”
    It's hard times try to make a livingYou wake up every morning in the unforgivingOut there somewhere in the cityThere's people living lives without mercy or pityI feel good, yeah I'm feeling fineI feel better then I have for the longest timeI think these pills have been good for meI ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • “Comity” versus the rule of law
    In 1974, the US Supreme Court issued its decision in United States v. Nixon, finding that the President was not a King, but was subject to the law and was required to turn over the evidence of his wrongdoing to the courts. It was a landmark decision for the rule ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago

  • Aotearoa: a live lab for failed Right-wing socio-economic zombie experiments once more…
    Every day now just seems to bring in more fresh meat for the grinder. In their relentlessly ideological drive to cut back on the “excessive bloat” (as they see it) of the previous Labour-led government, on the mountains of evidence accumulated in such a short period of time do not ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago

  • Water is at the heart of farmers’ struggle to survive in Benin
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Megan Valére Sosou Market gardening site of the Itchèléré de Itagui agricultural cooperative in Dassa-Zoumè (Image credit: Megan Valère Sossou) For the residents of Dassa-Zoumè, a city in the West African country of Benin, choosing between drinking water and having enough ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • At a time of media turmoil, Melissa had nothing to proclaim as Minister – and now she has been dem...
    Buzz from the Beehive   Melissa Lee – as may be discerned from the screenshot above – has not been demoted for doing something seriously wrong as Minister of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)
    New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago

  • Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...
    Good evening –   Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago

  • Accelerating airport security lines
    From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago

  • Community hui to talk about kina barrens
    People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago

  • Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into force
    Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago

  • Mining resurgence a welcome sign
    There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    16 hours ago

  • Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first reading
    The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Government to boost public EV charging network
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure.  The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Residential Property Managers Bill to not progress
    The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Independent review into disability support services
    The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Justice Minister updates UN on law & order plan
    Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Ending emergency housing motels in Rotorua
    The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and Dubai
    Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Education priorities focused on lifting achievement
    Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • NZTA App first step towards digital driver licence
    The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say.  “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Supporting whānau out of emergency housing
    Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Tribute to Dave O'Sullivan
    Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Speech – Eid al-Fitr
    Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Government saves access to medicines
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff.    “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Pharmac Chair appointed
    Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder
    Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says.  “Every day, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • New sports complex opens in Kaikohe
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Diplomacy needed more than ever
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges.    “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery Belgium
    Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service.  It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk Bair
    Distinguished guests -   It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders.   Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, Türkiye
    Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia.   Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • PM announces changes to portfolios
    Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New catch limits for unique fishery areas
    Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Minister welcomes hydrogen milestone
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment Bill
    The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Overseas decommissioning models considered
    Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Release of North Island Severe Weather Event Inquiry
    Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Justice Minister to attend Human Rights Council
    Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order.  “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facility
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  • Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024
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