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The Peace Settlement Must Start

Written By: - Date published: 7:50 am, March 24th, 2022 - 172 comments

Pressure for a Ukraine war settlement starting with a ceasefire will continue to mount. If this does drag out, there’s more chance of the conflict widening. Belarus could attack. NATO-allied supply convoys could be attacked. I’m trying not to go further. As with all major wars since Vietnam, the media frenzy puts the highest cost […]

Crisis, What Crisis?

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, March 22nd, 2022 - 88 comments

There is only so much New Zealand and its government can do to soften the blows of the instability that are besetting the world.  And the problem is without dramatic change New Zealand will remain one of the most car-addicted, petrol reliant societies on earth for several decades to come.

Who Pays the Price of Sanctions

Written By: - Date published: 4:32 pm, March 20th, 2022 - 194 comments

New Zealand’s sanctions on Russia have not stopped the war in Ukraine. They may have made our parliamentarians feel better, and Tony Blinken was quick to congratulate us on falling into line with the US “high-impact sanctions.” The language is combative, but the evidence shows sanctions do not  work. They can have significant blow-back effects, particularly if not combined with effective diplomacy.

Pick a side

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, March 17th, 2022 - 351 comments

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelinsky has made a direct appeal broadcast to the United States Congress. That will sort out the Putin supporters from the rest.  And with climate change beckoning it is time to pick a side.

The world in 6 months

Written By: - Date published: 8:59 am, March 15th, 2022 - 117 comments

In six months time the world could be in a very precarious position.

The International Legion of Territorial Defence

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, March 7th, 2022 - 107 comments

However much infighting there was on the Spanish Republican side between leftists, Communists, anarchists and others, you could be confident that the Nazis were on the other side.  In the Ukraine it is not so simple.

Is This The Boom We Wanted?

Written By: - Date published: 11:20 am, March 4th, 2022 - 65 comments

New Zealand’s time as high end ingredients producer to the world has arrived. But it has big costs.

Russian atrocity time

Written By: - Date published: 11:35 am, March 2nd, 2022 - 230 comments

The Russian armed forces obviously didn’t expect much resistance. I get the distinct impression that they had believed their own ridiculous propaganda (always a characteristic of dumb-arse dictatorships) and expected the Ukrainians to fall weeping in gratitude at their liberation. That clearly didn’t happen. What next…

Remarkably Hopeful

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, March 1st, 2022 - 18 comments

We will probably never get over the feeling that somehow, if enough people just banded together, it would all get better again, like we did when the United Nations charter was struck.

Putin threatens Nuclear War

Written By: - Date published: 8:27 am, February 28th, 2022 - 254 comments

Vladimir Putin, obviously hurting because some of his personal ill gotten wealth has been frozen has upped the ante by raising the spectre of the use of Nuclear Weapons.

The difference between the Wellington protests and the pro Ukraine protests in Russia

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, February 26th, 2022 - 76 comments

Currently in this world there are two significant protests occurring, both similar but at the same time completely different.

How Russia wins

Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, February 25th, 2022 - 47 comments

Russia hasn’t lost an intervention in quite some time.

No appeasement with Russia over invasion.

Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, February 25th, 2022 - 266 comments

Russia has invaded a neighbouring state with no more justification than an vague appeals to the same arguments that underpinned 19th century gunboat diplomacy. It was unacceptable in 1938, and is just even more unacceptable now. We should hep deal with this now without trying to appease an aggressor before we wind up with a  future conflict that kills, maims, and displaces people in job lots of millions.

Watch China’s next move

Written By: - Date published: 8:03 pm, February 24th, 2022 - 61 comments

Why should we in New Zealand give a damn about Ukraine? My answer is: China.

How is Boris Johnson still in Number 10?

Written By: - Date published: 2:18 am, February 21st, 2022 - 10 comments

Johnson and Cummings

 

Boris Johnson, should not on balance still be Prime Minister and in the long term, the Conservatives risk being severely punished for not removing him. But despite everything, he remains in post and still, we cannot write him off.

Global Britain fell with Singapore

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 pm, February 16th, 2022 - 4 comments

Today February 15th is the 80th anniversary of the fall of Singapore in 1942, described by many as Britain’s worst military disaster. It was a massive strategic fail, and its effect is still powerful today, most notably with Australia’s lockstep with the US. Current British strategists don’t seem to have learnt a thing.

 

Indications of wages rising

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 am, February 15th, 2022 - 16 comments

It sounds like the Industrial and Trades sector of the economy has had a significiant wage rise over the last year. While we wait for the wages stats data, this is an interesting indicator. The national median hourly pay in the sector is now $27 an hour, up $2 from 2020/21. But this isn’t just here, the world labour market is shifting just as the supply chains are.

Big developments in Beijing

Written By: - Date published: 4:44 pm, February 7th, 2022 - 31 comments

The meeting between Putin and Xi Jinping is likely to set the geopolitical direction for the 21st century. If ‘divide and rule’ was the mantra for the US’s hegemonic rule in the 20th century, ‘unite and share’ looks like setting the tone for the 21st. Co-operation rather than competition is the mantra, and “friendship between the two states has no limits.” A truly remarkable turnaround.

How New Zealand Reconnects With the World

Written By: - Date published: 12:06 pm, February 3rd, 2022 - 113 comments

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has announced a phased reopening of the country’s border.  Update:  video of the speech is added.

The importance of proper mask wearing

Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, January 27th, 2022 - 55 comments

With an Omicron surge appearing to be inevitable the importance of proper mask wearing has never been more important.

The Price Isn’t Yet Right To Invade Ukraine

Written By: - Date published: 12:32 pm, January 26th, 2022 - 59 comments

The entity making the most money out of threatening the Ukraine is the Russian Federation government itself. Follow the money.

Prisoners of the Narrative #1

Written By: - Date published: 4:30 pm, January 23rd, 2022 - Comments Off on Prisoners of the Narrative #1

Robert Ayson’s advocacy of a sanctions regime for New Zealand in case of a  Russian invasion of Ukraine is a bad idea based on poor intelligence.The “Russian invasion” narrative was always a beat-up, and there is no support from major players in Europe for sanctions such as removal from the SWIFT payment system. Russia’s claim for border security is reasonable and essential for peace.

The problem with middle of the road politicians

Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, January 23rd, 2022 - 21 comments

Joe Biden is struggling to get his agenda passed by the American Legislature.  Because of two Senators, one with significant coal interests and the other Senator more willing to protect the rights of a minority of Senators to hold up legislation than the rights of a minority of Americans to vote.

Omicron is coming

Written By: - Date published: 10:54 am, January 21st, 2022 - 113 comments

So far the country has fought back and eliminated the original Covid infection, won a couple of skirmishes and then and fought and quelled the Delta incursion.  But it looks like Omicron is coming …

Let’s help Tonga

Written By: - Date published: 8:32 am, January 19th, 2022 - 12 comments

In 2010 the poor but proud Island Nation raised $705,000 to donate to the Christchurch Earthquake Appeal Fund.  If New Zealanders were to reciprocate their generosity we would donate over $30 million.  It is time for us to return the favour.

Blinken and Blind-Sided?

Written By: - Date published: 2:54 pm, January 16th, 2022 - 17 comments

Russian peacekeepers are already leaving Kazakhstan having nipped the ‘colour revolution’ in the bud. Blinken clearly didn’t have a clue when he said Russians never leave the house. Russian intelligence was superb. Now we wait for Russia’s response to US likely refusal to pull back from its borders. One thing I’d bet on – no invasion of Ukraine.

More Anarchy in the UK

Written By: - Date published: 8:19 am, January 14th, 2022 - 20 comments

Boris Johnson’s reign as UK Prime Minister may be terminal after news of a Downing Street party held during lockdown was leaked to the press.

Unwanted guests?

Written By: - Date published: 10:40 pm, January 8th, 2022 - 22 comments

When I heard US Secretary of State Blinken’s take-away line from his D.C. press conference on RNZ’s news bulletin today on events in Kazakhstan  ‘I think one lesson in recent history is that once Russians are in your house, it’s sometimes very difficult to get them to leave’ I wondered what the Iraqis would think.

Australia’s Omicron problem

Written By: - Date published: 9:44 am, January 6th, 2022 - 132 comments

Mike Hosking Covid Australia

With over 61,000 new Covid cases reported yesterday Australia is in the midst of an infection surge that it has not seen before.  What lessons can New Zealand learn from Australia’s handling of the pandemic?

A few random predictions for 2022

Written By: - Date published: 11:30 am, January 1st, 2022 - 117 comments

A few random predictions for 2022.

New Zealand 2 Covid 0 so far …

Written By: - Date published: 8:36 am, December 30th, 2021 - 280 comments

But Omicron may be loose.