polls
Categories under polls
- No categories
On polls and things
Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, February 25th, 2014 - 106 comments
The periodic agony and ecstasy attached to opinion poll results has kicked in with a pessimistic TVOne poll result being released on the weekend. But how accurate are they and are we in danger of damaging an election campaign by focussing too much on them?
Polity: Chris Trotter – “gaseous exhalations”
Written By: - Date published: 11:37 am, February 20th, 2014 - 71 comments
Yesterday, Rob Salmond offered Chris Trotter a bet based on Chris writing an over-excited interpretation of an online poll. Who writes posts on the basis of online polls of less than 400 people? It is the same problem as interpreting small junk “markets” like iPredict which are rife with idiots of the right trying to push the odds away from reality with small amounts of cash. Really!
The Fairfax Ipsos Poll result
Written By: - Date published: 12:23 pm, February 15th, 2014 - 65 comments
Latest Fairfax Ipsos poll results are out. They should be taken with a grain of salt but suggest little change from the last poll.
Latest TV3 poll
Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, February 2nd, 2014 - 121 comments
Details of tonight’s “game changer” TV3 poll are out.
Latest Roy Morgan – Labour + Green ahead
Written By: - Date published: 7:20 pm, January 22nd, 2014 - 87 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll results are out and Labour + Greens (46%) are now ahead of National (43.5%).
Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:33 am, December 20th, 2013 - 63 comments
These days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left. Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at the latest NZ Herald poll. It is no wonder that National’s PR people including Audrey Young are spinning randomly like tops on a rough surface… National is up less than a point over Labour + Greens
Herald poll has Labour at 40% because of asset sales
Written By: - Date published: 9:09 am, December 15th, 2013 - 138 comments
A Herald poll this morning has Labour on 40% with many expressing concern with the asset sales programme. And John Key displays a disturbing lack of numeracy literacy.
Too close to call
Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and things are neck and neck.
The Cunliffe bounce
Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, October 30th, 2013 - 26 comments
Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. We can look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.
The only response needed
Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.
Update: the Colmar-Brunton poll today directly contradicts the Fairfax poll despite being taken on the same days.
The red tide rising
Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2013 - 40 comments
National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive Roy Morgan polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.
Our boat is faster than theirs
Written By: - Date published: 2:32 pm, October 3rd, 2013 - 27 comments
In the wake of the astounding victory of the NZ team in San Diego, Scott at Imperator Fish offers these words of sage advice to those on the left looking at recent polling. For those of you convinced by the current winning trend, some of us hope that you will take his advice (so the rest of us can carry on with the work that needs to be done).
Labour surges in latest Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, October 2nd, 2013 - 141 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is out and there has been a surge of support to Labour. The Labour/National gap is now 5%, the smallest gap in many years. The next election is going to be very interesting …
Smell the fear
Written By: - Date published: 2:28 pm, August 27th, 2013 - 236 comments
John Key claims he doesn’t care who becomes the next parliamentary Labour leader, while trying to drive a wedge between candidates. As Cunliffe gains momentum, Key turns negative on Cunliffe & throws some stones in his glass house. Gordon Campbell puts things in perspective.
Roy Morgan bounces left
Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
National 44 (down 7), Labour 34 (up 5), Greens 14 (up 4).
Roy Morgan shocker
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, July 31st, 2013 - 342 comments
Latest Roy Morgan is out and it’s a shocker.
Labour has dropped below 30% and the Nats are now over 50%.
Latest poll is good/bad for Labour/National/Winston
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, July 23rd, 2013 - 32 comments
The latest poll results are [fantastic/terrible]!
Mixed news
Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, July 19th, 2013 - 151 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left. A second high result for National, but Labour’s vote holding steady after difficult weeks.
The flat patch
Written By: - Date published: 10:18 am, July 5th, 2013 - 17 comments
I’ve been having a look at the Roy Morgan trend. Oddly, I don’t see this Labour ‘flat patch’ that people are claiming is happening. What is happening is that the Greens are trending slightly down (as it usually does mid-term) and Labour isn’t rising fast enough to offset that. We’re still some way off the safe-zone for Labour+Greens, and the question is whether we’ll get there.
Polls and the search for meaning
Written By: - Date published: 12:08 pm, June 26th, 2013 - 80 comments
Imagine if, five times in 18 months, I stuck my head out the window on a random day, made a guess of the temperature that was 95% likely to be 3 degrees or less too high or too low and, then, extrapolated climate change data from my results. You would laugh at me: too much chance and margin of error, not enough data points. Still, that doesn’t stop the Herald.
NZ Power verdict is in
Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, June 5th, 2013 - 108 comments
The polls are in. Despite an unprecendented assault by the capitalist forces to protect the profits of the electricity companies, the people want change, they want lower power prices. A TVNZ poll shows 57% of people support for the Labour/Green NZ Power plan, while the TV3 poll shows 54% support. So, keep on howling, Righties. Keep putting profit before people.
Key’s credibility hit
Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, June 4th, 2013 - 110 comments
At the same time as Russel Norman was laying out the Key Government’s flagrant disregard for democracy in powerful terms (and weren’t the Right’s pundits quick to circle the wagons around Key after that?), a poll was out showing the public is agreeing with Norman’s view of Key. 43.5% of Kiwis trust Key less than a year ago. 49% think its time for a change of government.
Looking up
Written By: - Date published: 8:55 pm, May 29th, 2013 - 138 comments
You can get all excited over every poll you see from people who poll a handful of times a year. You can try to read meaning into every bump and dip to fit your narrative, even if the ‘movements’ are just statistical noise. Or you can look at the trends.
Trends
Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, May 29th, 2013 - 176 comments
So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.
City Rail Link in the Budget?
Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 15th, 2013 - 45 comments
A reader sent us a comment from another blog by someone who was polled a couple of weeks back. The questions are very interesting, especially once you realise that it’s clearly being done for National and the Right in Auckland (one of the questions gives it away). Have a read, then I’ll tell you why I reckon the Nats are going to fund the City Rail Link in the Budget.
Polls and rogues
Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments
Two polls tonight with very different numbers. They can’t both be right – so which one?
Getting there
Written By: - Date published: 7:58 am, April 5th, 2013 - 32 comments
So, the trend in the Roy Morgans continues, ever so painfully slowly to move in the Left’s favour. Since Labour recovered from its election disaster level to 30+, the Left’s support has risen at a bit under 0.2% per month, the Right vice versa. Lab+Green now outpolls National as often as not. But ‘if these trends continue’ is the most dangerous phrase in politics.
On the accuracy of online polls
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 25th, 2013 - 30 comments
Granny Herald: from flawed data, false conclusions
Written By: - Date published: 11:21 am, March 23rd, 2013 - 17 comments
Three of the Herald’s political staff has a crack at trying to explain why National polled 48.5% in the latest Herald-Digipoll. Consensus seems to be that John Key’s an angel sent to earth to do very little but keep enough of the middle class happy enough who’ll never lose. May I humbly suggest an alternative theory – that the Herald-Digipoll is broken.
Good poll for Shearer
Written By: - Date published: 6:28 am, March 22nd, 2013 - 36 comments
The latest Herald Digipoll is mixed news for the left, but good news personally for David Shearer. Even John Armstrong is cautiously impressed…
- ‘We don’t even have a CT scan here’: Dunedin Hospital protesters rally
About 1000 people turned up to hear why building the hospital as planned, was important. ...5 days ago - Biggest Ever Community Petition, With Over 200,000 Signatures, Opposes Treaty Principles Bill
The country has spoken. This Bill is a bad faith attempt to revoke the Government’s commitments to Te Tiriti o Waitangi, and it’s visible to not just Aotearoa, but the world. ...5 days ago - Justice Committee Calls For Submissions On The Principles Of The Treaty Of Waitangi Bill
The committee is intending to complete hearings by the end of February 2025. Further decisions about hearings will be made and communicated in due course. ...5 days ago
- To build support, it might be time for the Greens to hang up their movement-style approach to politi...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Narelle Miragliotta, Associate Professor in Politics, Murdoch University State and territory elections held in 2024 have not delivered the electoral and legislative gains the Greens would have hoped for or expected. Of the elections conducted this year, the Greens’ performance was, ...5 days ago - Australia’s new anti-vaping program in schools is a good step – but education is only part of th...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonine Jancey, Academic and Director Collaboration for Evidence, Research and Impact in Public Health, Curtin University Drazen Zigic/Shutterstock Last week, the federal government announced a plan to roll out an anti-vaping program in schools across the country. The education program, ...5 days ago
- We pay less for houses in one-in-100 year flood zones – but overlook risks of more devastating flo...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Song Shi, Associate Professor, Property Economics, University of Technology Sydney If you’re buying a house near a river or on a floodplain, you will likely come up against the question of flood risk. We usually talk about this in terms of chance. ...5 days ago
- What was the deal with Julius Caesar and Cleopatra’s ‘situationship’?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charlotte Dunn, Lecturer in Classics, University of Tasmania Carl Gottlieb Venig/Wikimedia The Egyptian queen Cleopatra is often associated with glamorous beauty routines, deadly snake bites, lavish banquets and torrid affairs with some of the most notorious men in Roman history. ...5 days ago
- The cost of being: An ‘anti-capitalist’ barista and tutor renting in Wellington
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a 23-year-old explains why she’s been working since she was 11. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Female. Age: 23. Ethnicity: Cambodian Chinese. Role: Barista, tutor, campaigner, ...5 days ago - Regulations Ministry: Online tool can be used to share ‘red tape horror stories’
The Regulations minister wants to hear "from tradies, farmers, teachers, chefs, engineers - every person doing productive work". ...5 days ago
- Elon Musk’s new job will bring tech ‘disruption’ to the US government – and history says it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hallam Stevens, Professor of Interdisciplinary Studies, James Cook University On November 12, United States president-elect Donald Trump announced he would appoint Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, to lead a newly constituted Department of Government Efficiency alongside fellow tech billionaire and former ...5 days ago
- AI for life: how sovereign Wiradyuri ways of knowing can transform technology for good
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Russ-Smith, Associate Professor, Social Work and Assistant Deputy Head of School, School of Allied Health, Australian Catholic University Philip Schubert/Shutterstock From climate change to geopolitical instability to health emergencies, we are entering a period of momentous change. The technology industry ...5 days ago
- Live updates: Toitū Te Tiriti hīkoi marches to parliament
Tens of thousands are expected to gather in Te Upoko-o-te-ika-a-Māui today, as the nationwide Toitū Te Tiriti hīkoi prepares to arrive at parliament. Follow this blog for up-to-date coverage and reaction. ...5 days ago
- NZ media’s second wave of doom
MediaRoom: North & South magazine ‘suspending’ print publication is the latest in a wave of closures in our media, suffering from extended economic malaise and lower advertising The post NZ media’s second wave of doom appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago - Powered-up Regulatory Standards Bill removes role of courts
In his third attempt at constraining the drafting of new laws, David Seymour is seizing the controls The post Powered-up Regulatory Standards Bill removes role of courts appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago
- With 14 community newspapers due to close, too many parts of NZ are becoming ‘news deserts’
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Greg Treadwell, Senior Lecturer in Journalism, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images When media company NZME proposed the closure of 14 community newspapers last week, the so-called “news desert” encroached a little further into the local information landscape. The term refers ...5 days ago
- New Zealand’s new ‘anti-scam czar’ gets to work
Millions of dollars are lost to scams each year. Should more attention be on the social media giants that platform them? Stewart Sowman-Lund writes in today’s edition of The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...5 days ago
- Dunedin Hospital rebuild: Rally stirs more opposition to cutbacks
A sea of Southerners filled Dunedin's Town Hall last night in support of the Save Our Southern Hospital campaign. ...5 days ago
- Thousands expected at Parliament as hīkoi moves towards the capital
This article first appeared at rnz.co.nz and is republished with permission.Tens of thousands of people are expected to gather at Parliament today as the final leg of the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti reaches its last destination – but organisers and participants are saying it will not end there.At Takupūwāhia Marae ...5 days ago
- Treaty hīkoi: Commuter disruption expected as protest reaches Wellington
People on foot and in cars began making their way into central Wellington from the early hours of this morning. ...5 days ago
- Press Gallery 101: The House chats with Jason Walls
After an abuse apology kerfuffle in Parliament last week, The House spoke to Press Gallery chair Jason Walls about how the Press Gallery works, and who gets to join. ...5 days ago
- COP29: Surprise at lack of reaction to US elections
The first week of the global COP29 climate summit was remarkable for the wrong reasons, but with the second week now underway, a veteran NZ diplomat says the event is making constructive progress. ...5 days ago
- Pupils join hīkoi as te Tiriti is removed from curriculum framework
As a Wellington school leader takes 100 of his junior college pupils onto Parliament’s forecourt today alongside the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti, he is freshly motivated to protest.The pupils are officially there to learn – the trip comes under ‘education outside the classroom’ – but Onslow College deputy principal Connor ...5 days ago
- Hīkoi heads into Wellington: ‘This is a opportunity to stand up and have a voice’
Tens of thousands of people are expected to gather at Parliament today as the final leg of the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti reaches its last destination - but organisers and participants are saying it will not end there. ...5 days ago
- Treaty hīkoi: Commuter disruption expected as huge protest reaches Wellington
People on foot and in cars began making their way into central Wellington from the early hours of this morning. ...5 days ago
- Live: Hīkoi mō te Tiriti sets off for capital, tens of thousands expected at Parliament
Tens of thousands are expected to congregate at Parliament this morning. Follow the latest with RNZ's live updates. ...5 days ago
- Windbag: On the City to Sea Bridge and the power of letting go
It’s a Wellington icon, but we must say goodbye. It is time to demolish the bridge, argues Joel MacManus. Wellington’s City to Sea Bridge is beautiful and weird. Its design says something about what Wellington is and the way the city sees itself. It’s been the home of many late ...5 days ago
- Who gets to have an opinion on the hīkoi and who must remain ‘impartial’?
Newsrooms of old were apparently more impartial. But that’s only because everyone shared the same biases, argues Madeleine Chapman. Last week, the Herald’s Media Insider (AKA editor-at-large Shayne Currie) reported on some shocking news. Top TVNZ executive Nevak Rogers had taken annual leave from her job as chief content officer ...5 days ago
- Spark’s slump tars communications index as worst performer
Normally a nice, boring, stable utility, Spark has caught investors’ attention this year for all the wrong reasons The post Spark’s slump tars communications index as worst performer appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 19 November
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .entry-title { font-size: 1.2em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles .entry-meta { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; margin-top: 0.5em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .entry-meta { font-size: 0.8em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .avatar { height: 25px; width: ...5 days ago
- Finally proposals to set access charges
Unless you live next door to a conservation area, accessing it is far from free anyway The post Finally proposals to set access charges appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago
- Red light for those seeking emergency housing
Ministry of Social Development declines twice as many emergency housing applications each month; other tenants are encouraged to couch-surf under threat of eviction The post Red light for those seeking emergency housing appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago
- Daily crossword, Tuesday 19 November
The post Daily crossword, Tuesday 19 November appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago
- ‘Extremely disappointing’: Watts blasts countries for blocking negotiations at COP29
The clock is now ticking and ministers have just four days to agree to a global finance goal and settle other thorny issues The post ‘Extremely disappointing’: Watts blasts countries for blocking negotiations at COP29 appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago
- Whitewashing te Tiriti out of education
Opinion: The school curriculum framework’s acknowledgement of the principles of Te Tiriti o Waitangi has been replaced with a commitment to ‘the science of learning’ The post Whitewashing te Tiriti out of education appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 days ago
- Poor outcomes for poverty
Stephen Turnock had a breakthrough moment as lay on a stranger’s roof in pouring rain for four hours, evading police.“I remember it as if it was yesterday,” he tells The Detail. “I was up to no good and we were being actively looked for. As I lay on that roof ...5 days ago
- Meltwater from Greenland and the Arctic is weakening ocean circulation, speeding up warming down sou...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurie Menviel, Post-doctoral Research Fellow, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney Mozgova, Shutterstock A vast network of ocean currents nicknamed the “great global ocean conveyor belt” is slowing down. That’s a problem because this vital system redistributes heat around the world, ...5 days ago
- Council looking into controversial post on hīkoi
Whangārei District Council says it's looking into reports about councillors' comments on social media relating to the hīkoi - but won't say if any formal Code of Conduct complaint has been lodged. ...5 days ago
- ‘It’s a complete and total nightmare’ – aid worker speaks about Israel’s relentless Gaza g...
Democracy Now! AMY GOODMAN: This is Democracy Now!, The War and Peace Report. I’m Amy Goodman. We turn to Israel’s war on Gaza. A special UN committee has reported Israel’s actions in Gaza are “consistent with the characteristics of genocide”. Another report by Human Rights Watch finds Israel has committed ...5 days ago
- The Coalition will block the student caps bill. Brace yourself for more uncertainty over internation...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University In a surprise move, the Coalition has announced it will vote against Labor’s bill to cap international student numbers. This follows previous Coalition comments saying it would work with ...6 days ago
- Treaty Principles bill hīkoi pauses to gather steam, before march to Parliament
Final preparations are being made as tens of thousands of people in te Hīkoi mō te Tiriti convoys converge in the capital. ...6 days ago
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Recent Comments