polls

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Polity: The new TV polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 pm, March 31st, 2014 - 24 comments

The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls. National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.

LocalBodies: National Slumps in Polls As Ministers Struggle

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, March 24th, 2014 - 22 comments

There is danger of reading too much into polls months out from an election. Commentators were claiming that National was too strong to lose the next election based on a rogue poll. Few looked at multiple polls, accounted for the margin of error nor the trends over past months. The last fortnight has seen a National with the latest Roy Morgan Poll plummeting from the Colmar Brunton result of 51% to 45.5%. And it is based on a lack of ministerial performance…

Polity: Endangered! Polls without cell phones

Written By: - Date published: 5:07 pm, March 13th, 2014 - 28 comments

Here’s a pretty astounding graphic from the US about cellphone vs landline use. The US is a few years ahead of New Zealand on mobile adoption and decoupling from landlines, but Rob Salmond thinks that within 5 years we will see these kinds of proportions in New Zealand. This will make current pollsters’ policies of refusing to call cell phones hugely problematic…

Polity: X more thoughts on poll bias

Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, February 26th, 2014 - 26 comments

Whenever the media report on polls, they get accused of all manner of biases by the blinkered commentariat. Most of it is nonsense, of course. But some criticism of the polling methods themselves may have more merit that Rob Salmond first thought.  While he is not yelling “fire” at this stage, he does think there may be smoke. Something that he did not think that three years ago.

On polls and things

Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, February 25th, 2014 - 106 comments

The periodic agony and ecstasy attached to opinion poll results has kicked in with a pessimistic TVOne poll result being released on the weekend. But how accurate are they and are we in danger of damaging an election campaign by focussing too much on them?

Polity: Chris Trotter – “gaseous exhalations”

Written By: - Date published: 11:37 am, February 20th, 2014 - 71 comments

Yesterday, Rob Salmond offered Chris Trotter a bet based on Chris writing an over-excited interpretation of an online poll. Who writes posts on the basis of online polls of less than 400 people? It is the same problem as interpreting small junk “markets” like iPredict which are rife with idiots of the right trying to push the odds away from reality with small amounts of cash. Really!

The Fairfax Ipsos Poll result

Written By: - Date published: 12:23 pm, February 15th, 2014 - 65 comments

Latest Fairfax Ipsos poll results are out.  They should be taken with a grain of salt but suggest little change from the last poll.

Latest TV3 poll

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, February 2nd, 2014 - 121 comments

Details of tonight’s “game changer” TV3 poll are out.

Latest Roy Morgan – Labour + Green ahead

Written By: - Date published: 7:20 pm, January 22nd, 2014 - 87 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll results are out and Labour + Greens (46%) are now ahead of National (43.5%).

Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls

Written By: - Date published: 11:33 am, December 20th, 2013 - 63 comments

These days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left. Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at the latest NZ Herald poll. It is no wonder that National’s PR people including Audrey Young are spinning randomly like tops on a rough surface… National is up less than a point over Labour + Greens

Herald poll has Labour at 40% because of asset sales

Written By: - Date published: 9:09 am, December 15th, 2013 - 138 comments

A Herald poll this morning has Labour on 40% with many expressing concern with the asset sales programme.  And John Key displays a disturbing lack of numeracy literacy.

Too close to call

Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and things are neck and neck.

The Cunliffe bounce

Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, October 30th, 2013 - 26 comments

Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. We can look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.

The only response needed

Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments

The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.

Update: the Colmar-Brunton poll today directly contradicts the Fairfax poll despite being taken on the same days.

The red tide rising

Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2013 - 40 comments

National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive Roy Morgan polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.

Our boat is faster than theirs

Written By: - Date published: 2:32 pm, October 3rd, 2013 - 27 comments

In the wake of the astounding victory of the NZ team in San Diego, Scott at Imperator Fish offers these words of sage advice to those on the left looking at recent polling. For those of you convinced by the current winning trend, some of us hope that you will take his advice (so the rest of us can carry on with the work that needs to be done).

Labour surges in latest Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, October 2nd, 2013 - 141 comments

The latest Roy Morgan is out and there has been a surge of support to Labour.  The Labour/National gap is now 5%, the smallest gap in many years.  The next election is going to be very interesting …

Smell the fear

Written By: - Date published: 2:28 pm, August 27th, 2013 - 236 comments

John Key claims he doesn’t care who becomes the next parliamentary Labour leader, while trying to drive a wedge between candidates. As Cunliffe gains momentum, Key turns negative on Cunliffe & throws some stones in his glass house. Gordon Campbell puts things in perspective.

Roy Morgan bounces left

Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments

National 44 (down 7), Labour 34 (up 5), Greens 14 (up 4).

Roy Morgan shocker

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, July 31st, 2013 - 342 comments

Latest Roy Morgan is out and it’s a shocker.

Labour has dropped below 30% and the Nats are now over 50%.

Latest poll is good/bad for Labour/National/Winston

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, July 23rd, 2013 - 32 comments

The latest poll results are [fantastic/terrible]!

Mixed news

Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, July 19th, 2013 - 151 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left. A second high result for National, but Labour’s vote holding steady after difficult weeks.

Informal GCSB poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:20 am, July 14th, 2013 - 42 comments

gcsb-poll

The flat patch

Written By: - Date published: 10:18 am, July 5th, 2013 - 17 comments

I’ve been having a look at the Roy Morgan trend. Oddly, I don’t see this Labour ‘flat patch’ that people are claiming is happening. What is happening is that the Greens are trending slightly down (as it usually does mid-term) and Labour isn’t rising fast enough to offset that. We’re still some way off the safe-zone for Labour+Greens, and the question is whether we’ll get there.

Polls and the search for meaning

Written By: - Date published: 12:08 pm, June 26th, 2013 - 80 comments

Imagine if, five times in 18 months, I stuck my head out the window on a random day, made a guess of the temperature that was 95% likely to be 3 degrees or less too high or too low and, then, extrapolated climate change data from my results. You would laugh at me: too much chance and margin of error, not enough data points. Still, that doesn’t stop the Herald.

NZ Power verdict is in

Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, June 5th, 2013 - 108 comments

The polls are in.  Despite an unprecendented assault by the capitalist forces to protect the profits of the electricity companies, the people want change, they want lower power prices. A TVNZ poll shows 57% of people support for the Labour/Green NZ Power plan, while the TV3 poll shows 54% support. So, keep on howling, Righties. Keep putting profit before people.

Key’s credibility hit

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, June 4th, 2013 - 110 comments

At the same time as Russel Norman was laying out the Key Government’s flagrant disregard for democracy in powerful terms (and weren’t the Right’s pundits quick to circle the wagons around Key after that?), a poll was out showing the public is agreeing with Norman’s view of Key. 43.5% of Kiwis trust Key less than a year ago. 49% think its time for a change of government.

Looking up

Written By: - Date published: 8:55 pm, May 29th, 2013 - 138 comments

You can get all excited over every poll you see from people who poll a handful of times a year. You can try to read meaning into every bump and dip to fit your narrative, even if the ‘movements’ are just statistical noise. Or you can look at the trends.

Trends

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, May 29th, 2013 - 176 comments

So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.

City Rail Link in the Budget?

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 15th, 2013 - 45 comments

A reader sent us a comment from another blog by someone who was polled a couple of weeks back. The questions are very interesting, especially once you realise that it’s clearly being done for National and the Right in Auckland (one of the questions gives it away). Have a read, then I’ll tell you why I reckon the Nats are going to fund the City Rail Link in the Budget.

Polls and rogues

Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments

Two polls tonight with very different numbers. They can’t both be right – so which one?