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The Fairfax Ipsos Poll result
Written By: - Date published: 12:23 pm, February 15th, 2014 - 65 comments
Latest Fairfax Ipsos poll results are out. They should be taken with a grain of salt but suggest little change from the last poll.
Latest TV3 poll
Written By: - Date published: 6:05 pm, February 2nd, 2014 - 121 comments
Details of tonight’s “game changer” TV3 poll are out.
Latest Roy Morgan – Labour + Green ahead
Written By: - Date published: 7:20 pm, January 22nd, 2014 - 87 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll results are out and Labour + Greens (46%) are now ahead of National (43.5%).
Polity: Herald poll mirrors Poll-of-Polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:33 am, December 20th, 2013 - 63 comments
These days even the polls that have traditionally biased towards the right are moving left. Rob Salmond at Polity has a look at the latest NZ Herald poll. It is no wonder that National’s PR people including Audrey Young are spinning randomly like tops on a rough surface… National is up less than a point over Labour + Greens
Herald poll has Labour at 40% because of asset sales
Written By: - Date published: 9:09 am, December 15th, 2013 - 138 comments
A Herald poll this morning has Labour on 40% with many expressing concern with the asset sales programme. And John Key displays a disturbing lack of numeracy literacy.
Too close to call
Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and things are neck and neck.
The Cunliffe bounce
Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, October 30th, 2013 - 26 comments
Fairfax suffered the double indignity of first having its poll contradicted by One News’ hours later and then Key himself mocking the idea that National is on 50%. Still rogue polls happen. That’s statistics. We can look through the variation in single polls by comparing the 6 After David polls to their 6 Before Cunliffe predecessors to see if there really has been a Cunliffe bounce.
The only response needed
Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, October 28th, 2013 - 162 comments
The final Fairfax poll before the last election had National on 54%.
Update: the Colmar-Brunton poll today directly contradicts the Fairfax poll despite being taken on the same days.
The red tide rising
Written By: - Date published: 11:59 am, October 20th, 2013 - 40 comments
National led the combined Labour+Green vote for 76 successive Roy Morgan polls. But how times have changed. The Left’s led 10 of the last 14 polls, and all the last five. With solid vision, policies, and a credible candidate for PM, the Left finally has the goods to win. Watch for the cracks to appear in the Nats as they position for a post-Key future.
Our boat is faster than theirs
Written By: - Date published: 2:32 pm, October 3rd, 2013 - 27 comments
In the wake of the astounding victory of the NZ team in San Diego, Scott at Imperator Fish offers these words of sage advice to those on the left looking at recent polling. For those of you convinced by the current winning trend, some of us hope that you will take his advice (so the rest of us can carry on with the work that needs to be done).
Labour surges in latest Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, October 2nd, 2013 - 141 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is out and there has been a surge of support to Labour. The Labour/National gap is now 5%, the smallest gap in many years. The next election is going to be very interesting …
Smell the fear
Written By: - Date published: 2:28 pm, August 27th, 2013 - 236 comments
John Key claims he doesn’t care who becomes the next parliamentary Labour leader, while trying to drive a wedge between candidates. As Cunliffe gains momentum, Key turns negative on Cunliffe & throws some stones in his glass house. Gordon Campbell puts things in perspective.
Roy Morgan bounces left
Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
National 44 (down 7), Labour 34 (up 5), Greens 14 (up 4).
Roy Morgan shocker
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, July 31st, 2013 - 342 comments
Latest Roy Morgan is out and it’s a shocker.
Labour has dropped below 30% and the Nats are now over 50%.
Latest poll is good/bad for Labour/National/Winston
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, July 23rd, 2013 - 32 comments
The latest poll results are [fantastic/terrible]!
Mixed news
Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, July 19th, 2013 - 151 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left. A second high result for National, but Labour’s vote holding steady after difficult weeks.
The flat patch
Written By: - Date published: 10:18 am, July 5th, 2013 - 17 comments
I’ve been having a look at the Roy Morgan trend. Oddly, I don’t see this Labour ‘flat patch’ that people are claiming is happening. What is happening is that the Greens are trending slightly down (as it usually does mid-term) and Labour isn’t rising fast enough to offset that. We’re still some way off the safe-zone for Labour+Greens, and the question is whether we’ll get there.
Polls and the search for meaning
Written By: - Date published: 12:08 pm, June 26th, 2013 - 80 comments
Imagine if, five times in 18 months, I stuck my head out the window on a random day, made a guess of the temperature that was 95% likely to be 3 degrees or less too high or too low and, then, extrapolated climate change data from my results. You would laugh at me: too much chance and margin of error, not enough data points. Still, that doesn’t stop the Herald.
NZ Power verdict is in
Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, June 5th, 2013 - 108 comments
The polls are in. Despite an unprecendented assault by the capitalist forces to protect the profits of the electricity companies, the people want change, they want lower power prices. A TVNZ poll shows 57% of people support for the Labour/Green NZ Power plan, while the TV3 poll shows 54% support. So, keep on howling, Righties. Keep putting profit before people.
Key’s credibility hit
Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, June 4th, 2013 - 110 comments
At the same time as Russel Norman was laying out the Key Government’s flagrant disregard for democracy in powerful terms (and weren’t the Right’s pundits quick to circle the wagons around Key after that?), a poll was out showing the public is agreeing with Norman’s view of Key. 43.5% of Kiwis trust Key less than a year ago. 49% think its time for a change of government.
Looking up
Written By: - Date published: 8:55 pm, May 29th, 2013 - 138 comments
You can get all excited over every poll you see from people who poll a handful of times a year. You can try to read meaning into every bump and dip to fit your narrative, even if the ‘movements’ are just statistical noise. Or you can look at the trends.
Trends
Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, May 29th, 2013 - 176 comments
So, the latest Fairfax poll isn’t flash for Labour and it’s the same old story of leadership. But don’t get too excited there’s no ‘trend’ in the Fairfax – they’ve polled just three times since the election. We also know that most pollsters have been over polling National for years. Instead, lets ask what the polls show now compared to the immediate pre-election poll.
City Rail Link in the Budget?
Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 15th, 2013 - 45 comments
A reader sent us a comment from another blog by someone who was polled a couple of weeks back. The questions are very interesting, especially once you realise that it’s clearly being done for National and the Right in Auckland (one of the questions gives it away). Have a read, then I’ll tell you why I reckon the Nats are going to fund the City Rail Link in the Budget.
Polls and rogues
Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments
Two polls tonight with very different numbers. They can’t both be right – so which one?
Getting there
Written By: - Date published: 7:58 am, April 5th, 2013 - 32 comments
So, the trend in the Roy Morgans continues, ever so painfully slowly to move in the Left’s favour. Since Labour recovered from its election disaster level to 30+, the Left’s support has risen at a bit under 0.2% per month, the Right vice versa. Lab+Green now outpolls National as often as not. But ‘if these trends continue’ is the most dangerous phrase in politics.
On the accuracy of online polls
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 25th, 2013 - 30 comments
Granny Herald: from flawed data, false conclusions
Written By: - Date published: 11:21 am, March 23rd, 2013 - 17 comments
Three of the Herald’s political staff has a crack at trying to explain why National polled 48.5% in the latest Herald-Digipoll. Consensus seems to be that John Key’s an angel sent to earth to do very little but keep enough of the middle class happy enough who’ll never lose. May I humbly suggest an alternative theory – that the Herald-Digipoll is broken.
Good poll for Shearer
Written By: - Date published: 6:28 am, March 22nd, 2013 - 36 comments
The latest Herald Digipoll is mixed news for the left, but good news personally for David Shearer. Even John Armstrong is cautiously impressed…
Polling merry-go-round
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments
The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.
Latest Roy Morgan… a bit shit
Written By: - Date published: 9:09 pm, February 28th, 2013 - 147 comments
I guess the title says it all. The latest Roy Morgan has National at 47.5% (up 3.5%), Labour 30.5% (down 4%), Greens 12.5%, and NZ First at 3%. I’m not really in the mood to piss around with analysis tonight. You’ve heard me moan about the state of Labour enough lately. But it’s not the […]
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