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Leaks and leaks

Written By: - Date published: 11:52 am, October 24th, 2011 - 69 comments

As more oil leaks from the Rena, National’s beginning to leak too. I’ve just been hearing about their latest internal polling, and it ain’t pretty. As the earlier Horizon poll suggested, the Rena has been an inflection point for National and the masses of soft support they’ve accumulated is drifting away.

Questions for leaders’ debate

Written By: - Date published: 8:37 am, October 22nd, 2011 - 46 comments

TV1 is calling for submissions of questions for their televised leaders’ debate.  Want to give them a hand?

Mishandled Rena costing Nats votes

Written By: - Date published: 8:02 am, October 21st, 2011 - 51 comments

A recent poll confirms that the expected loss of Nat votes over the Rena disaster is a real effect.

Death cab for Banksie

Written By: - Date published: 9:43 pm, October 20th, 2011 - 170 comments

Another Epsom poll has ACT’ stuffed. Goldsmith: 37%; Banks: 24%; Parker: 17%. However, it also says the blue-rinsers will obediently tick Banks if Key explicitly tells them to. But will he? Will the chance of saving 2% ACT be worth the nationwide loss of votes from linking Key’s brand to that mess of a party? His equivocating suggests the Nats haven’t decided.

A new low

Written By: - Date published: 11:46 am, October 19th, 2011 - 44 comments

Last election, National promised to subsidise a treatment for the rare and deadly Pompe disease. Now, they won’t even meet with the sufferers. The truth is that New Zealand can’t afford ongoing treatments that cost $1m per patient per year. National promises us whatever we want to hear to get our votes. Knowing from the start they’ll never deliver.

No pay rises under Nats

Written By: - Date published: 1:26 am, October 19th, 2011 - 81 comments

St. Augustine said “Lord, give me chastity, but not yet”. Was reminded of that reading the Tories’ reaction to Labour’s work and wages policy. Tories say they want you to have higher wages. But not yet. It’s always later. Once you’ve earned it. In the ‘brighter future’. And they’ll scream blue murder any time you demand what you deserve today.

Time for a Government

Written By: - Date published: 9:05 am, October 18th, 2011 - 38 comments

Last election it was “Time for a change”.  After three years of incompetence and inaction, our priorities should be different this time…

Parallels with the Past

Written By: - Date published: 11:08 am, October 17th, 2011 - 12 comments

On Sunday the 10th of May 2008, John Key gave a speech at the Southern Regional Conference explaining National’s platform for the looming election. It’s an interesting read, and looking back to consider words from the past can uncover some revealing realities about the present

micky savage: Is it Phil Goff’s time?

Written By: - Date published: 10:14 am, October 16th, 2011 - 88 comments

Two weeks ago I thought that Goff and Labour did not have a chance in this election.  National’s lead in the polls seemed too big, the country still seemed to be in love with John Key and Goff just was not getting the media cut through necessary to change hearts and minds. Then something happened.  The wheels started to fall off National’s well honed machine.

What the BSA said – Key on RadioLive

Written By: - Date published: 3:00 pm, October 14th, 2011 - 112 comments

The Broadcasting Standards Authority has decided that Key’s hour-long promotional programme on RadioLive was not an election programme.

It will now be very interesting to see what the Electoral Commission decides in relation to advertising complaints.

What the Commission said – Key on RadioLive

Written By: - Date published: 3:30 pm, October 11th, 2011 - 64 comments

Key’s staff spun to media that his Radio Live show was ok if he didn’t discuss politics, saying the station had received advice from the Electoral Commission that “political content’ could breach rules. That didn’t sound right to me, so I asked the Commission what they actually said.

Election flyers: Wage drop

Written By: - Date published: 12:30 pm, October 11th, 2011 - 21 comments

Can we afford 3 more years of falling real wages under Key?

Famous liars

Written By: - Date published: 11:48 am, October 11th, 2011 - 10 comments

No wonder politicians get such a bad rep.

PM Moonbeam afraid to debate

Written By: - Date published: 11:01 am, October 10th, 2011 - 31 comments

Buried in Friday’s Herald’s media section was a big political story. After John “Moonbeam” Key had his hour of talking about his cat while the country was being downgraded, Radio Live responded to the complaints of this blatant and illegal political favouritism by offering to host a Leaders’ debate. It was canned, though, when Moonbeam was to afraid to front up.

Farrar poll sounds ACT’s death knell

Written By: - Date published: 12:09 pm, October 8th, 2011 - 40 comments

National Party pollster David Farrar has been polling in Epsom and the results are not good for the Right. Epsomites are pissed off with their seats being used as a backdoor for ACT into Parliament. They don’t like the gall of the Nats taking out Hide, slotting in Banks and expecting nothing to change. They don’t like dopey Brash.

The Greens’ clever election strategy

Written By: - Date published: 12:11 pm, October 5th, 2011 - 97 comments

Once again, the Greens have the best billboards and a great policy platform. But the really clever bit is their positioning. A lot of people don’t like National’s policies and don’t want them having a majority. They like Labour’s policies but not the personnel. Enter the Greens: good policies, nice people, and, officially, willing to work with and counterbalance National.

English: poll downgrade coming

Written By: - Date published: 11:13 am, October 4th, 2011 - 12 comments

Bill ‘Double Dipton’ (or should that be ‘Double Downgrade’?) English says people aren’t focused on politics, which is why National is so high in the polls. When they focus on the main election issue of economic management, DD says the gap will close. Not exactly a strong defence of his and Key’s performance as economic leaders.

Downgrade aftershocks continue

Written By: - Date published: 8:44 am, October 4th, 2011 - 54 comments

The credit rating downgrades have been quite a political earthquake, and the aftershocks are going to continue for some time.

Key broke law on radio show

Written By: - Date published: 8:13 pm, October 3rd, 2011 - 75 comments

Prime Minister Moonbeam clearly broke the law on Friday on the radio show he chose to run instead of dealing with the downgrade crisis. The law is clear: Key wasn’t allowed to make political statements. He did. He made a promise on broadcasting policy and gave the Nats’ first cut spin-line on the downgrade.

Nats’ policy cupboard bare as crisis strikes

Written By: - Date published: 10:40 am, October 3rd, 2011 - 37 comments

The Nats have released no substantial policy since the Budget and look unlikely to do so. Their election strategy was clearly to keep attention away from a comparison of their policy vs Labour’s, and keep it on Brand Key. The exploding economic crisis has caught the Nats’ flat-footed. Now, they need economic ideas urgently but have none to offer.

A week of polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:25 am, October 3rd, 2011 - 70 comments

What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!)  In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.

Game on

Written By: - Date published: 10:39 am, October 2nd, 2011 - 56 comments

The weeks of the RWC were supposed to be a politics-free zone. Bread and circuses.  It hasn’t turned out that way, as both Armstrong and O’Sullivan point out in weekend opinion pieces.  The credit downgrades have dropped a bomb in the middle of the political landscape. But I think that both are wrong in expecting any action from the Nats.

Wedge issue

Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, October 2nd, 2011 - 14 comments

Don Brash has weaved his magic again. He’s going to have a minder now and everything he says will be vetted. But it’s too late. His cannabis speech brilliantly highlighted the disjunction between ACT’s values and those of the man they need to win Epsom. A major ACT donor calls John Banks a twerp, while Don Nicolson has, surprisingly, sided with Brash.

Gap closes in latest Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, October 1st, 2011 - 86 comments

Like the recent Fairfax poll, yesterday’s Roy Morgan shows a significant swing from National to Labour.

Gap closes in latest Fairfax

Written By: - Date published: 9:01 am, September 28th, 2011 - 56 comments

The latest Fairfax poll has the Labour – National gap closing a bit.

Food in Schools?

Written By: - Date published: 6:32 am, September 28th, 2011 - 33 comments

John Key promised to put Food in poorer Schools across New Zealand to help children to learn. What has he done about it? One cheap, but very well-publicised stunt. Will we see any substance? Or is this another promise like not raising GST, wages catching Australia, or capping not cutting the civil service?

Government to overrule Auckland?

Written By: - Date published: 2:04 pm, September 27th, 2011 - 24 comments

Nick Smith is looking at issuing a “Government policy statement” to ensure that the Auckland Plan complies with their agenda. They may ban the urban limits that are proposed to keep green, productive land around Auckland and help ensure rates stay low and public transport works in a more liveable city.

ACT, the continuing implosion

Written By: - Date published: 6:27 am, September 27th, 2011 - 34 comments

On Sunday, Don Brash decided to muse on decriminalising cannabis. It’s not ACT policy, we’re meant to understand, it’s just the Party Leader making a speech and saying ‘this would be a good idea’. In classic Brash style, he hadn’t told John Banks, who gave Brash a public smacking on the idea. Now the question is: why would the people of Epsom vote for these two?

Over-promise, under-deliver

Written By: - Date published: 10:37 am, September 26th, 2011 - 28 comments

John Hartevelt – “Key is massively over-exposed on any number of fronts, but nowhere more so than at Pike River.” Key routinely promises big: close the wage gap, roaring out of recession, national cycleway, no equity loss for redzoners, Pike River bodies out, no GST hike, whaling solved, brighter future. He NEVER delivers. How does […]

Why’s Boscawen really quitting?

Written By: - Date published: 12:38 am, September 25th, 2011 - 43 comments

Out of the blue, John Boscawen has announced he is withdrawing from ACT’s list. It’s an odd departure from an odd man. ‘Family reasons’ is the line. Not exactly creative. Is the real reason National’s ‘fixit’ Bill? Boscawen is a true believer in ACT’s libertarian principles and doesn’t do compromise. Was being asked to sign a retrospective blank cheque the final straw?

Brash to split vote, opens door for Clark

Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, September 23rd, 2011 - 29 comments

Three time election loser Don Brash has announced he will stand in North Shore. Having lost the safe National seat of East Coast Bays twice to Social Credit(!) and the unloseable election as leader in 2005, his odds of defeating even Maggie Barry, a novice best known for her gardening, are poor. But will he split the rightwing vote and let Ben Clark slip though?