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Polls and policies
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 28th, 2011 - 160 comments
Much ado in the commentariat about the latest Farifax poll, another poor result for Labour. But some of these commentators could do to brush up on their history…
Nats drop 5% in Roy Morgan, Left surges
Written By: - Date published: 8:28 pm, July 20th, 2011 - 110 comments
TV1’s poll on Sunday was supposedly curtains for CGT, so what does it mean that the latest Roy Morgan has the Nats down 5% and the Left in striking range of an upset win? It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends.
Bad poll but not for CGT
Written By: - Date published: 6:29 am, July 18th, 2011 - 138 comments
The latest ONE News / Colmar Brunton poll is bad for Labour, and not great for the Left. But it isn’t a verdict on Labour’s CGT proposal – the polling period finished before the policy was announced.
Apparently the undecided in this poll was 14%. I wonder why that was missed out of the reporting?
Polls and people
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, June 21st, 2011 - 27 comments
The Roy Morgan Polls are all over the place, at the moment, and the latest one has the Left at the bottom of the roller coaster. In other news, the Readers Digest survey of most trusted individuals, which this year is dominated by scientists!
Why I love polls
Written By: - Date published: 10:58 am, June 19th, 2011 - 12 comments
“Consumer confidence ‘back to normal'”. “Financial woes keep growing”. Take your pick.
Another interesting poll?
Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, June 13th, 2011 - 9 comments
Could be worth watching Native Affairs on Maori television tonight at 8:30. The Te Tai Tokerau candidates will be debating and it appears there may be a very interesting poll result in the offing. The Herald’s story today on a different sort of poll is headlined “Voters back Harawira, but only by a whisker.” It could go down to the wire.
Update: Hone 41, Kelvin 40
Nats plummet, Lab soars post-budget
Written By: - Date published: 8:27 pm, June 9th, 2011 - 93 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is the first poll taken after the Budget has had time to sink in. Nat+ACT+UF fell from 55.5% to 51% while Lab+Green went from 38% to 42.5%. Labour rose a massive 8%. New Zealanders do not want asset sales, fewer work rights, and National’s nasty agenda and are realising they have to vote against that ‘Nice Man Mr Key’.
Polls everywhere
Written By: - Date published: 9:29 am, May 30th, 2011 - 87 comments
Plenty of polls lately. Do we really need so many? Two released yesterday show some closing of the gap between National and Labour – but not nearly enough yet…
Vote Key, get asset sales
Written By: - Date published: 11:21 am, May 27th, 2011 - 58 comments
Based on the Herald’s latest poll, that is a message the Left will be well advised to push hard. The poll shows 62% opposition vs 29% support for asset sales, while NACT polls at 56%. So, at least 18% are prospective NACT voters AND oppose Key’s main policy. The Left can win over many of these people on this vital issue.
A big gap to close
Written By: - Date published: 9:12 pm, May 23rd, 2011 - 29 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is not good reading for the political left. But it’s not quite time to despair yet!
Froth on the rich man’s hem
Written By: - Date published: 11:35 pm, May 20th, 2011 - 47 comments
John Key thinks National will lose some support because of the budget saying: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we ease back a bit. I mean that’s logical. Some of that sort of froth in there will come away”. Hear that, tens of thousands of swing voters who believed in the ‘brighter future that Key promised you and didn’t deliver? You’re just ‘froth’ to him.
Key calls snap Election for June 4
Written By: - Date published: 1:55 pm, May 3rd, 2011 - 29 comments
Now if the sight of that headline made you feel a bit sick for a moment, you might want to ask yourself ‘How well prepared would my party be if Key called a snap election?’ The reason it might pay to ask is that it’s not outside the realms of possibility that Key could manufacture […]
Sage advice on the polls
Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, April 29th, 2011 - 35 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is out, with good news for the Left compared to the rogue TV3 poll. As a bonus extra we have some sage advice, from an unexpected source, on polls in general…
What next for Rodney?
Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, April 27th, 2011 - 26 comments
ACT Leader Rodney Hide will soon be out of a job. I doubt he’ll be in the running for any prime SOE chairs like Jim Bolger, and all the best jobs at the UN are taken by competent people. Jenny Shipley went in to the HR business and Mike Moore became a WTO lapdog.
So what next for Rodney?
Aug: Horizon Poll Easter 2011
Written By: - Date published: 11:30 am, April 27th, 2011 - 21 comments
Aug in Hamilton is a great little blog and Aug has given us permission to reprint some of the posts. In this post, Aug looks at the controversial Horizon tracking poll. It’s an interesting analysis and not great news for the Left. Time to get back on track.
Winnie’s big chance
Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, April 18th, 2011 - 58 comments
The TV3 poll has the NACT vs Lab/Green/NZF gap at 22% vs 9% in the latest Roy Morgan. I’ll tend to pay attention to the company that polls every fortnight to the one that polls once in a blue moon. Nevertheless, the story of both polls is the same: Labour struggling to make headway + Nats potentially with a majority = opportunity for Winston Peters
Little impact from Hughes affair, NZF on the rise
Written By: - Date published: 9:32 pm, April 8th, 2011 - 50 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows little impact from the Darren Hughes affair to date. We still don’t know how the investigation will play out but the poll suggests dithering leadership matters less than economic fundamentals. The big news, though, is that New Zealand First would be back under these numbers.
Plurality support quake levy
Written By: - Date published: 11:29 am, April 4th, 2011 - 4 comments
A UMR poll shows that 40% of Kiwis support paying an earthquake levy to help pay for the Christchurch rebuild. 22% prefer more borrowing, and 29% want spending cuts. Asked just whether they supported or opposed a levy – 57% supported it. Yet the Nats are choosing cuts instead.
Another poll
Written By: - Date published: 7:34 am, March 5th, 2011 - 90 comments
Another Roy Morgan poll is out, and the results make for interesting reading.
Trends good for Left, much work to do
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 80 comments
It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads and look at the trends. The Left has more than halved the Right’s lead since its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?
Hello TV3 – can you count?
Written By: - Date published: 6:27 pm, February 20th, 2011 - 94 comments
Is Duncan Garner just recycling headlines from last year?
Updated: Apology from TV3
2 to 1 against privatisation
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 18th, 2011 - 52 comments
Kiwis are strongly against selling our public assets. National’s policy is opposed by 60% and supported by just 30%. That’s more opposition than the mining proposal. There’ll be no back-down from the Nats – pillaging the State is a core reason for them wanting power. On these numbers, it may lose them the election.
Davey’s dodgy polling
Written By: - Date published: 10:59 am, February 17th, 2011 - 24 comments
There’s long been doubt over the quality of David Farrar’s Curia polling company. Now, Tim Watkin has produced a first-hand report of Curia’s questioning. The tone of the questions is biased, which is really dumb if you’re trying to get useful data. It’s not really push polling, it’s Farrar delivering what the Nats want to hear to maintain his standing in the party.
Race for 2011 wide open
Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, January 10th, 2011 - 68 comments
Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers. Horizon tries to include which way the undecideds will fall – the results have National worried.
Stupid news makes you stupid shocker
Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, December 17th, 2010 - 50 comments
Several studies have now shown that those who watch Fox News are significantly more misinformed than those who don’t. Well there’s a surprise! Not. Serious question though, can we have both a free media and a requirement for minimum levels of accuracy and balance, or are those options mutually exclusive?
NZF poll is wrong
Written By: - Date published: 7:34 am, December 6th, 2010 - 77 comments
Great excitement in the Sunday papers over Winston Peters / NZF. “Poll puts NZ First back in contention”! “Peters the kingmaker again”! Don’t believe a word of it.
Kiwis feel worse off after Nat tax swindle
Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, November 22nd, 2010 - 23 comments
A new Horizon poll shows that the vast majority of Kiwis at all incomes level, but especially low-income families, feel worse off after the Nats’ October 1 tax swindle. John Key claimed the vast bulk of us would be better off but clearly we aren’t; shuffling money around and giving more to the rich leaves the rest of us with less.
Confidence in govt falls on Hobbit debacle
Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, November 10th, 2010 - 47 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows confidence in government plummeted during the Hobbit debacle. It shows confidence in government falling to a new low for Key’s administration. At the beginning of the year, nearly three-quarters of the population agreed the country was heading in the right direction. Barely 50% do now.
The Google poll
Written By: - Date published: 7:43 am, November 7th, 2010 - 23 comments
It seems that in American elections there is an almost perfect correspondence between some candidates’ opinion polling and their current search volume on Google. Can we do away with political opinion polls? Sounds interesting doesn’t it. A quick check shows that the relative frequency of searches for “National party” and “Labour party” predicted the result of the 2008 election. What other tricks can we try?
Why the Right is worried 4: Polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:57 am, October 21st, 2010 - 41 comments
The trend is quite clear now. The Right’s support peaked and the Left’s support reached is nadir last year. The gap has been gradually closing ever since. From a 24.5% gap between National and ACT a year ago, the gap in the latest Roy Morgan has fallen to 5.5%. About quarter of a million Kiwis have switched their support to the Left in a single year.
The failing polls..
Written By: - Date published: 4:58 pm, October 16th, 2010 - 12 comments
An article in The Economist looks at the failing basis of polling techniques in the USA. It isn’t that much different to the circumstances here.
“The proportion of those called who end up taking part in a survey has fallen steadily, from 35% or so in the 1990s to 15% or less now, according to Mr Keeter. Reaching young people is especially difficult. Only old ladies answer the phone…”
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Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.