polls
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Boggled
Written By: - Date published: 9:47 am, July 30th, 2011 - 39 comments
I/S at No Right Turn on the public’s perception of the management of the economy, and National’s “dismal non-performance “.
Turnaround is fair play
Written By: - Date published: 7:41 am, July 29th, 2011 - 30 comments
Some are linking Labour’s polling to National’s in 2002. Well, I think it’s worth remembering the other side of the 2002 polls. Labour’s support plunged 13% in the last month of the campaign from 50%+ support to the point where a Nat-led government was a real threat. Then, there was 1996, where Labour went from polling 4th to losing by a hair.
Polls and policies
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 28th, 2011 - 160 comments
Much ado in the commentariat about the latest Farifax poll, another poor result for Labour. But some of these commentators could do to brush up on their history…
Nats drop 5% in Roy Morgan, Left surges
Written By: - Date published: 8:28 pm, July 20th, 2011 - 110 comments
TV1’s poll on Sunday was supposedly curtains for CGT, so what does it mean that the latest Roy Morgan has the Nats down 5% and the Left in striking range of an upset win? It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends.
Bad poll but not for CGT
Written By: - Date published: 6:29 am, July 18th, 2011 - 138 comments
The latest ONE News / Colmar Brunton poll is bad for Labour, and not great for the Left. But it isn’t a verdict on Labour’s CGT proposal – the polling period finished before the policy was announced.
Apparently the undecided in this poll was 14%. I wonder why that was missed out of the reporting?
Polls and people
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, June 21st, 2011 - 27 comments
The Roy Morgan Polls are all over the place, at the moment, and the latest one has the Left at the bottom of the roller coaster. In other news, the Readers Digest survey of most trusted individuals, which this year is dominated by scientists!
Why I love polls
Written By: - Date published: 10:58 am, June 19th, 2011 - 12 comments
“Consumer confidence ‘back to normal'”. “Financial woes keep growing”. Take your pick.
Another interesting poll?
Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, June 13th, 2011 - 9 comments
Could be worth watching Native Affairs on Maori television tonight at 8:30. The Te Tai Tokerau candidates will be debating and it appears there may be a very interesting poll result in the offing. The Herald’s story today on a different sort of poll is headlined “Voters back Harawira, but only by a whisker.” It could go down to the wire.
Update: Hone 41, Kelvin 40
Nats plummet, Lab soars post-budget
Written By: - Date published: 8:27 pm, June 9th, 2011 - 93 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is the first poll taken after the Budget has had time to sink in. Nat+ACT+UF fell from 55.5% to 51% while Lab+Green went from 38% to 42.5%. Labour rose a massive 8%. New Zealanders do not want asset sales, fewer work rights, and National’s nasty agenda and are realising they have to vote against that ‘Nice Man Mr Key’.
Polls everywhere
Written By: - Date published: 9:29 am, May 30th, 2011 - 87 comments
Plenty of polls lately. Do we really need so many? Two released yesterday show some closing of the gap between National and Labour – but not nearly enough yet…
Vote Key, get asset sales
Written By: - Date published: 11:21 am, May 27th, 2011 - 58 comments
Based on the Herald’s latest poll, that is a message the Left will be well advised to push hard. The poll shows 62% opposition vs 29% support for asset sales, while NACT polls at 56%. So, at least 18% are prospective NACT voters AND oppose Key’s main policy. The Left can win over many of these people on this vital issue.
A big gap to close
Written By: - Date published: 9:12 pm, May 23rd, 2011 - 29 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is not good reading for the political left. But it’s not quite time to despair yet!
Froth on the rich man’s hem
Written By: - Date published: 11:35 pm, May 20th, 2011 - 47 comments
John Key thinks National will lose some support because of the budget saying: “I wouldn’t be surprised if we ease back a bit. I mean that’s logical. Some of that sort of froth in there will come away”. Hear that, tens of thousands of swing voters who believed in the ‘brighter future that Key promised you and didn’t deliver? You’re just ‘froth’ to him.
Key calls snap Election for June 4
Written By: - Date published: 1:55 pm, May 3rd, 2011 - 29 comments
Now if the sight of that headline made you feel a bit sick for a moment, you might want to ask yourself ‘How well prepared would my party be if Key called a snap election?’ The reason it might pay to ask is that it’s not outside the realms of possibility that Key could manufacture […]
Sage advice on the polls
Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, April 29th, 2011 - 35 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is out, with good news for the Left compared to the rogue TV3 poll. As a bonus extra we have some sage advice, from an unexpected source, on polls in general…
What next for Rodney?
Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, April 27th, 2011 - 26 comments
ACT Leader Rodney Hide will soon be out of a job. I doubt he’ll be in the running for any prime SOE chairs like Jim Bolger, and all the best jobs at the UN are taken by competent people. Jenny Shipley went in to the HR business and Mike Moore became a WTO lapdog.
So what next for Rodney?
Aug: Horizon Poll Easter 2011
Written By: - Date published: 11:30 am, April 27th, 2011 - 21 comments
Aug in Hamilton is a great little blog and Aug has given us permission to reprint some of the posts. In this post, Aug looks at the controversial Horizon tracking poll. It’s an interesting analysis and not great news for the Left. Time to get back on track.
Winnie’s big chance
Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, April 18th, 2011 - 58 comments
The TV3 poll has the NACT vs Lab/Green/NZF gap at 22% vs 9% in the latest Roy Morgan. I’ll tend to pay attention to the company that polls every fortnight to the one that polls once in a blue moon. Nevertheless, the story of both polls is the same: Labour struggling to make headway + Nats potentially with a majority = opportunity for Winston Peters
Little impact from Hughes affair, NZF on the rise
Written By: - Date published: 9:32 pm, April 8th, 2011 - 50 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows little impact from the Darren Hughes affair to date. We still don’t know how the investigation will play out but the poll suggests dithering leadership matters less than economic fundamentals. The big news, though, is that New Zealand First would be back under these numbers.
Plurality support quake levy
Written By: - Date published: 11:29 am, April 4th, 2011 - 4 comments
A UMR poll shows that 40% of Kiwis support paying an earthquake levy to help pay for the Christchurch rebuild. 22% prefer more borrowing, and 29% want spending cuts. Asked just whether they supported or opposed a levy – 57% supported it. Yet the Nats are choosing cuts instead.
Another poll
Written By: - Date published: 7:34 am, March 5th, 2011 - 90 comments
Another Roy Morgan poll is out, and the results make for interesting reading.
Trends good for Left, much work to do
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 80 comments
It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads and look at the trends. The Left has more than halved the Right’s lead since its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?
Hello TV3 – can you count?
Written By: - Date published: 6:27 pm, February 20th, 2011 - 94 comments
Is Duncan Garner just recycling headlines from last year?
Updated: Apology from TV3
2 to 1 against privatisation
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 18th, 2011 - 52 comments
Kiwis are strongly against selling our public assets. National’s policy is opposed by 60% and supported by just 30%. That’s more opposition than the mining proposal. There’ll be no back-down from the Nats – pillaging the State is a core reason for them wanting power. On these numbers, it may lose them the election.
Davey’s dodgy polling
Written By: - Date published: 10:59 am, February 17th, 2011 - 24 comments
There’s long been doubt over the quality of David Farrar’s Curia polling company. Now, Tim Watkin has produced a first-hand report of Curia’s questioning. The tone of the questions is biased, which is really dumb if you’re trying to get useful data. It’s not really push polling, it’s Farrar delivering what the Nats want to hear to maintain his standing in the party.
Race for 2011 wide open
Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, January 10th, 2011 - 68 comments
Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers. Horizon tries to include which way the undecideds will fall – the results have National worried.
Stupid news makes you stupid shocker
Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, December 17th, 2010 - 50 comments
Several studies have now shown that those who watch Fox News are significantly more misinformed than those who don’t. Well there’s a surprise! Not. Serious question though, can we have both a free media and a requirement for minimum levels of accuracy and balance, or are those options mutually exclusive?
NZF poll is wrong
Written By: - Date published: 7:34 am, December 6th, 2010 - 77 comments
Great excitement in the Sunday papers over Winston Peters / NZF. “Poll puts NZ First back in contention”! “Peters the kingmaker again”! Don’t believe a word of it.
Kiwis feel worse off after Nat tax swindle
Written By: - Date published: 9:43 am, November 22nd, 2010 - 23 comments
A new Horizon poll shows that the vast majority of Kiwis at all incomes level, but especially low-income families, feel worse off after the Nats’ October 1 tax swindle. John Key claimed the vast bulk of us would be better off but clearly we aren’t; shuffling money around and giving more to the rich leaves the rest of us with less.
Confidence in govt falls on Hobbit debacle
Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, November 10th, 2010 - 47 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows confidence in government plummeted during the Hobbit debacle. It shows confidence in government falling to a new low for Key’s administration. At the beginning of the year, nearly three-quarters of the population agreed the country was heading in the right direction. Barely 50% do now.
The Google poll
Written By: - Date published: 7:43 am, November 7th, 2010 - 23 comments
It seems that in American elections there is an almost perfect correspondence between some candidates’ opinion polling and their current search volume on Google. Can we do away with political opinion polls? Sounds interesting doesn’t it. A quick check shows that the relative frequency of searches for “National party” and “Labour party” predicted the result of the 2008 election. What other tricks can we try?
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending November 15
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Zest: Climbing From Depression to Philosophy by Daniel Kalderimis (Ugly Hill Press, $40) Kalderimis ...1 week ago - The rebuilding of Fazerdaze
Following the release of her sophomore album Soft Power, Amelia Murray (Fazerdaze) tells Alex Casey about heading south and rediscovering herself. Fazerdaze is back in Morningside, but everything has changed. “It’s so strange to be back, ” she says softly, gesturing out of The Spinoff’s office window at the drizzly ...1 week ago
- Where does kai come from? Learning in the māra
Lucinda Bennet reflects on appreciating vegetables and learning through doing. This is an excerpt from our food newsletter, The Boil Up. When you pull a carrot from the ground, there’s a certain sound it makes, a kind of “pop” as the tip detaches from the root cap. It’s something you can ...1 week ago
- The cost of being: A lawyer with two kids, a mortgage and a love of good meat
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a 42-year-old lawyer shares how he and his family approach their finances. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Male. Age: 42. Ethnicity: Pākehā. Role: Lawyer with two ...1 week ago
- Watch live: New Zealand vs Australia in the Trans-Tasman Scrabble Challenge
In an Antipodean first, the Bledisloe Cup of Scrabble is streaming live on YouTube all weekend. Here’s how to watch and everything else you need to know. What’s all this then? It’s Scrabble as you’ve never seen it before! Unless you already watch Scrabble online, in which case it’s Scrabble ...1 week ago
- Treaty Principles Bill will greatly damage National’s relationship with Māori – former minister
This article first appeared at rnz.co.nz and is republished with permission.There is no doubt the Treaty Principles Bill will greatly damage National’s relationship with Māori, former Treaty Negotiations Minister Chris Finlayson says.The legislation passed its first reading on Wednesday afternoon, but not before extraordinary scenes of opposition that led to the Speaker suspending ...1 week ago - How the first reading of the Treaty Principles Bill played out
And why one former MP, explains Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Bulletin, says John Key would never have allowed this to happen. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...1 week ago
- Carol Hirschfeld could be in line for top TVNZ role
The big-cost out strategy at TVNZ could see former news presenter Carol Hirschfeld emerge as a front runner to head both the news and programming departments The post Carol Hirschfeld could be in line for top TVNZ role appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 week ago
- When home is where the work is, city design should fall in line
Opinion: The pandemic-induced WFH shift is altering the fabric of our built environments, offering unique opportunities to change how we work and live The post When home is where the work is, city design should fall in line appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 week ago
- All 14 malls in Christchurch ranked from worst to best
To celebrate Christchuch Anniversary Day, Joseph Harper ranks every mall in the ‘garden city’. This is the first in the Malls of New Zealand series, where we rank the malls in major centres. Next week: Auckland. When I was growing up in pre-quake Ōtautahi, people used to say that the ...1 week ago
- The climate and human rights crises are indelibly intertwined
At the Cop29 climate conference, the host country’s president called oil a ‘gift of god’. But for many people all over the world, it is in fact a curse. Maria Armoudian, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations, explains. In the first week of the United Nations international climate ...1 week ago
- A House divided, a leader nowhere in sight
Analysis: When David Seymour started talking about the democratisation of Te Tiriti he seemed sure the conversation wouldn’t divide the nation.“I wouldn’t underestimate people’s ability to engage in a high-quality conversation,” Seymour told Newsroom back in August.On Thursday, during the first reading of his Treaty Principles Bill, the division was ...1 week ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 15 November
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- NZ to restart oil and gas exploration one month after COP
While New Zealand diplomats at the COP29 climate summit are pushing for a global phase-out of fossil fuels, legislators at home plan to repeal the 2018 ban on new offshore oil and gas drilling within a month of the conference’s end.A spokesperson for Resources Minister Shane Jones confirmed the legislation, ...1 week ago
- This week’s bestselling books – November 15
FICTION1 The Songbirds of Florence by Olivia Spooner (Hachette, $37.99)A free copy of the author’s latest historical novel – set in 1942, in Egypt, where Kiwi women are sent to provide respite to weary soldiers returning from the front line – was up for grabs in last week’s giveaway contest. Readers were asked to say ...1 week ago
- Havana’s clean sweep in memory of dad
As Havana Hopman walked off the gymnastics floor, her ribbon trailing behind her, she turned her tear-filled eyes to the roof and whispered: ‘Thank you’.It was the final day of the national gymnastics championships in Palmerston North, and for Hopman – New Zealand’s top rhythmic gymnast for the past four ...1 week ago
- Pacific staring down ‘twin storms’ of debt and climate disaster
A ‘vicious cycle’ sees Pacific nations take on debt to recover from disasters, underinvest in resilience and suffer more damage as a result The post Pacific staring down ‘twin storms’ of debt and climate disaster appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 week ago
- Daily crossword, Friday 15 November
The post Daily crossword, Friday 15 November appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 week ago
- Rocketlab’s Māhia launches linked to Israeli military intelligence
Space Minister Judith Collins is urged to revoke or decline Rocketlab applications with possible links to the war in Gaza The post Rocketlab’s Māhia launches linked to Israeli military intelligence appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 week ago
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While world leaders prepare to talk about lofty trade issues, Peruvians are more concerned about crime The post Peru combats crime as world leaders arrive appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 week ago
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Fewer deliveries every week, a reduced number of postal outlets, and no longer having mail deliveries to letterboxes at front gates are just some of the proposed changes for New Zealand Post.This would mean posties could eventually stop delivering mail to individual letterboxes and instead leave mail in cluster or ...1 week ago
- Uniformed Defence Force Should Not Be Used As Strike Breakers
“In a modern liberal democracy, any deployment of the armed forces in employment relations is a drastic step, and should be avoided at all costs,” said Wagstaff. ...1 week ago - House suspended as haka interrupts first reading of the Treaty Principles Bill
Speaker Gerry Brownlee has suspended the House of Representatives after a haka, led by Te Paati Māori and performed by members in the public gallery, interrupted the first reading of the Treaty Principles Bill. As thousands continue to protest and hīkoi around Aotearoa, the first reading of the Treaty Principles ...1 week ago
- Review: Crowded House gets Ōtautahi breaking the rules
Last night at Wolfbrook Arena in Christchurch, Crowded House did the unthinkable – they got a polite New Zealand concert crowd to break the rules. Here’s something I’ve observed about concert attendance in the north vs the south. Where most Aucklanders will bustle in just as the main act takes ...1 week ago
- The case for reading books about animals wearing clothes
In light of Gloriavale’s reluctant acceptance of Winnie-the-Pooh, Claire Mabey argues in favour of the wider canon of anthropomorphic animal literature. There is nothing more bleak than the banning of books and the curtailment of reading. Control what people read and you control what they think, and how they behave. ...1 week ago
- Coldplay and 57,000 babies at Eden Park
Review: Everything happens all at once at Coldplay’s sold-out show. About 15 minutes into Music of the Spheres, I realised that we were all just big babies. When Coldplay emerged for their first song, our compostable plastic wristbands lit up around Eden Park, delighting us all. Minutes later, Chris Martin ...1 week ago
- Dear Donald, here’s why you should cut NZ a break in the tariff torrent
Ten irrefutable reasons for the incoming president to exempt plucky little New Zealand from import tax hikes. The former and future president, Donald J Trump, has been re-elected on a platform pledging new and universal import tariffs of 10%-20%. The challenge for New Zealand politicians and officials is to somehow ...1 week ago
- Help Me Hera: Why do I only befriend people nobody else can stand?
How do I end this cycle of misery, once and for all? Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nz Dear Hera How do I break a lifelong pattern of forming close friendships with people that nobody else can stand? Ever since I was about 12, I have had a succession of very ...1 week ago
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- On the frontlines of Hīkoi mō te Tiriti
Thousands converged on Auckland, the day before the first reading of the controversial Treaty Principles Bill, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...1 week ago
- You’re gonna miss the post office when it’s gone
Despite it dwindling locations and reduced service, NZ Post remains a pillar in every community, writes Hera Lindsay Bird. Every Saturday morning I arrive at 7.30am, and enter the post office box lobby. Behind the narrow corridor of identical red letterboxes, there is a locked room, full of ancient Christmas ...1 week ago
- ‘Whaka round, find out’: When the hīkoi came to Auckland
The Toitū te Tiriti hīkoi reached Auckland on Wednesday, seeing thousands cross the Harbour Bridge and walk around the coast to Bastion Point. Lyric Waiwiri-Smith joined them. Atop Bastion Point, a crowd of red, black and white gathered at the end of what we’ve been told is a history-making moment. ...1 week ago
- When women hit the grass ceiling of coaching
There’s a subject Alice Soper wants to stop writing about.It’s the sidelining of women when it comes to rugby coaching.But she can’t, as long as the problem still exists.“So often we get caught up in the good news,” she says.“There’s like a toxic positivity that’s attached to a lot of ...1 week ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 14 November
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- Labour needs to learn the art of the deal
Opinion: Unless the Democrats and Labour trim their policy sails accordingly, they will lose elections that matter The post Labour needs to learn the art of the deal appeared first on Newsroom. ...1 week ago
- Trump II and the coming ‘golden age’ of tyranny in the Middle East
In his rambling victory speech on November 5, Donald Trump, having stoked the fears of Americans throughout his campaign, and sporting extra fake tan for the occasion, spoke of a new ‘golden age’.In terms of Middle East foreign policy, with whom will Trump look to build this ‘golden age’?In May ...1 week ago
- Book of the Week: Day of the lizard
When I first spotted the new illustrated book Geckos & Skinks: The remarkable lizards of Aotearoa in the window of a Wellington bookstore in October (I was visiting with my wife Fi who was going to WOW with her cousins and niece. I wasn’t. I went once in 2002 and ...1 week ago
- Government Will Not Say If Gang Members To Be Excluded From Abuse In Care Compensation
The government is refusing to say whether gang members could be excluded from compensation for abuse they suffered while in state care. ...2 weeks ago
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It was supposed to have its second reading on Wednesday, but on the final order paper appeared at 13th, meaning it was effectively postponed for the week. ...2 weeks ago
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