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Why the Right is worried 4: Polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:57 am, October 21st, 2010 - 41 comments
The trend is quite clear now. The Right’s support peaked and the Left’s support reached is nadir last year. The gap has been gradually closing ever since. From a 24.5% gap between National and ACT a year ago, the gap in the latest Roy Morgan has fallen to 5.5%. About quarter of a million Kiwis have switched their support to the Left in a single year.
The failing polls..
Written By: - Date published: 4:58 pm, October 16th, 2010 - 12 comments
An article in The Economist looks at the failing basis of polling techniques in the USA. It isn’t that much different to the circumstances here.
“The proportion of those called who end up taking part in a survey has fallen steadily, from 35% or so in the 1990s to 15% or less now, according to Mr Keeter. Reaching young people is especially difficult. Only old ladies answer the phone…”
Latest Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 8:17 pm, October 13th, 2010 - 103 comments
Nat 49.5%, Lab 36.5%, Gre 8%, NZF 2.5%, MAO 2.5% ACT 0.5%
Highest Labour vote since Helen Clark was PM. Lowest ACT vote in many many years. Key’s still holding the Nats up high.
No rest for team Brown
Written By: - Date published: 12:52 pm, October 4th, 2010 - 19 comments
The weekend headlines make it seem like Brown has the Auckland Mayoral election all but won. That’s an invitation to self-defeating complacency. Team Brown needs to keep up the hard work — it ain’t over ’till it’s over.
Kiwis against Nats’ Fire at Will
Written By: - Date published: 11:10 am, September 20th, 2010 - 84 comments
A UMR poll just out asked 750 Kiwis if workers should have the right to appeal if they think they are unfairly dismissed within the first 90 days of employment. 80% said yes. That’s a damning rejection of National’s Fire at Will law, which the government wants to extend to every new worker. Will Key and Co listen? Fat chance.
Brown to beat Banks, don’t tell Granny
Written By: - Date published: 9:28 am, September 16th, 2010 - 11 comments
Two more Supercity polls. Brown ahead 29% v 17% in a Horizon poll. Herald’s Digipoll has it closer – 29.8% v 27.8%. Brown still ahead. Naturally, the Herald calls it too close to call. Looks like the Right’s plan for an Auckland coup is coming unstuck. Guess they’re lucky Labour and the Greens supported their nation-wide coup instead.
Another poll
Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, August 9th, 2010 - 17 comments
For the poll junkies – yes there’s been another poll. It’s headed “Labour make gains”, but it’s margin of error stuff, so don’t get too excited.
Victory within reach, if they’ll grab for it
Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, August 2nd, 2010 - 48 comments
Labour has, to date, failed to give the people who voted for it 3 of the last 4 elections a reason to come back. But that doesn’t mean all is lost. The Left is not just Labour. A 5% shift in the polls, the same scale as the shift that has already happened this past year, would be all it takes to get those numbers even and make the Maori Party – or maybe Winston – kingmaker.
MFAT leak too convenient
Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, July 23rd, 2010 - 16 comments
Why would someone in MFAT feel the need to interfere in the Australian election by leaking to the Australian media? I’ve been accused of conspiracy theories in the past but this leak seems all too convenient when National’s old mates Crosby Textor are up against it in Aussie.
Yes, next Roy Morgan out
Written By: - Date published: 9:54 am, July 12th, 2010 - 93 comments
In case you didn’t spot it in the papers (who for reason seem to be covering it this time), the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has strengthened to 58.5% (up 3%), comprising National Party 53% (up 2.5%), Maori Party 3% (unchanged), ACT NZ 2% (up 1%) and […]
The reverse midas touch
Written By: - Date published: 12:01 pm, July 4th, 2010 - 8 comments
David Farrar leapt to a “they did it too” defence of the taxpayer-funded ‘survey’ that National MPs are sending to selected voters around the country. I reckon he wrote the questions. It was Farrar’s dodgy polling that convinced National to run Melissa Lee as the candidate in Mt Albert. I guess Lee getting caught out with a dodgy ‘survey’ is just Farrar’s reverse midas touch striking again.
Nats push-polling on your dime?
Written By: - Date published: 1:19 am, July 1st, 2010 - 61 comments
A reader sent us these images of an addressed ‘survey’ he received in the mail from Melissa Lee. It makes interesting reading because it’s not actually an attempt to gather our opinions to inform National’s policies. It’s a cynical attempt to influence our views while pretending to care what we think. And the Nats are using our money to fund it.
Most and least trusted
Written By: - Date published: 7:46 pm, June 29th, 2010 - 31 comments
A recent survey of most and least trusted individuals and professions in NZ makes for interesting reading. Politicians as a profession rank down with telemarketers and sex workers. The list of least trusted individuals contains some bad news for the government…
Assets the big issue for 2011
Written By: - Date published: 12:07 am, June 22nd, 2010 - 15 comments
The post-Budget bump for National in the Roy Morgan polls was there but was small and it’s already evaporating. Fundamentally, National’s policies just aren’t popular,as the poll showing 80% opposition to asset sales proves. National is still pursuing privatisation by stealth (whanua ora, PEDA, water etc), giving the Left an opportunity make public assets the big issue of 2011.
Latest polls
Written By: - Date published: 4:53 pm, June 21st, 2010 - 38 comments
Two polls: Roy Morgan who say “The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has weakened to 55.5% (down 2%)” and TV3 “National are up 3.2 percent to 55.3 percent, Labour are down 3.3 percent to 30.5 percent and the Greens are down to 7.7 percent.” Wish I was a pollster…
Numbers I pulled out of my arse show Brown unhurt by Nat smears
Written By: - Date published: 1:40 pm, June 19th, 2010 - 24 comments
My new poll shows Len Brown will get 90% of the vote. Even though the survey is unscientific and consisted of a self-selected group most of whom think like me, it provides an interesting take on the two weeks of intense political and media scrutiny of Mr Brown’s credit card expenses.
Anderton clear leader in Christchurch
Written By: - Date published: 12:14 pm, June 15th, 2010 - 28 comments
I was quite surprised by Jim Anderton’s decision to stand for mayor of Christchurch. And I had thought that his decision not to step down from Parliament until the next election was a mistake that would haunt him in the mayoral campaign. But it looks like I got it wrong. A UMR poll shows that Anderton is preferred over Tory incumbent Bob Parker by a two to one margin.
Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, June 5th, 2010 - 70 comments
Latest Roy Morgan poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has strengthen considerably to 57.5% (up 3.5%)
Rush to judge turns embarrassing
Written By: - Date published: 12:30 pm, June 2nd, 2010 - 18 comments
The Budget is turning into something of an embarrassment for the media. Even before it had been released, the journos in their lock-up had written pieces proclaiming it a hugely popular success. The evidence says they got it wrong. The people think they’ll be worse off. Journos need to stop deciding public opinion before it has had a chance to form, let alone be sampled.
Armstrong column: Nats and polling
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, June 1st, 2010 - 35 comments
John Armstrong in today’s NZHerald asks whether the love affair with Key is over: After an 18-month dream run during which National had polled consistently above 50 per cent – and as high as 57 per cent – Sunday’s poll may be viewed as a watershed and the end (finally) of the honeymoon with voters. But that may be too simplistic.
Rightwing policies hit Nats in latest poll
Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 30th, 2010 - 78 comments
Another bad poll for National. Support for the Tories in the latest Colmar Brunton poll has dropped from 54% to 49%. The gap between Right (National and ACT) and Left (Labour and Greens) has fallen from 20% last September to 11%. And keep an eye on New Zealand First. It looks like, for all the gushing reporting, the public hasn’t been taken in by the tax swindle.
The New Zealand Herald: “Coalition is shakier by the day”
Written By: - Date published: 12:23 pm, May 16th, 2010 - 24 comments
The headline for the Herald’s editorial today says a lot about where the media are at with National at the moment. The Government and its actions have been savaged by a range of msm outlets this week in New Zealand – and internationally, which in turn became another source of yet more negative domestic coverage. This week […]
Corporal punishment bullshit
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, May 16th, 2010 - 33 comments
Family First have a history of trying to make political capital out of stacked questions. They’re are at it again, distorting the results of a survey question to push for bringing back corporal punishment in schools. They are aided and abetted by some spectacularly bad journalism.
Maxim scores own-goal, embarrasses National
Written By: - Date published: 3:03 pm, May 11th, 2010 - 15 comments
A recently released UMR poll commissioned by right-wing think tank the Maxim Institute shows strong support for the policies of the last Labour Government and little taste for the reforms National is trying to push through. It seems that if you ask Kiwis what kind of policies they want, the answer is ‘make mine a […]
Asking your members’ opinions? Outrageous!
Written By: - Date published: 11:26 pm, April 21st, 2010 - 27 comments
TVNZ: “Labour has been rumbled secretly polling its own members”. Jesus, can’t Labour can’t even poll its own members without the media playing silly buggers? They’re asking their members about the party’s branding (not its values, its branding). That’s a good thing. It’s the members’ party after all. Good stuff, Labour. You don’t see National asking for its members’ opinions.
Confidence in Key govt falls off a cliff
Written By: - Date published: 12:42 am, April 12th, 2010 - 20 comments
Smile and wave is easy enough in the first year, people are willing to give you a chance. But at some point, the public expects a government to get to work tackling the big problems. National displays no will or ability to do so. In just two months, 1 in 8 Kiwis has switched from thinking the country is heading in the right direction under Key to thinking things are getting worse.
Some friendly advice for Labour
Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, March 10th, 2010 - 115 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and Labour isn’t moving. And while only a political noob would expect them to be making major gains this early in the first term of a new government they’re still not laying the groundwork they should be. So what should they be doing?
Poll good news for MMP
Written By: - Date published: 4:39 pm, February 25th, 2010 - 4 comments
No Right Turn covers the latest UMR poll on MMP, which shows a good but by no means unassailable lead for MMP over less representative systems.
With the forces of reaction once again emerging to undermine our democracy we all need to get in behind the Campaign for MMP.
Nats’ polling
Written By: - Date published: 12:55 pm, January 31st, 2010 - 9 comments
Fran O’Sullivan wrote about how she was called by David Farrar’s Curia, National’s polling company, recently. What she was asked is revealing. She was asked to rate the National front bench plus Steven Joyce and Murray McCully. I’ve never heard of this been done before, asking for people’s views on individual ministers. It suggests an […]
How media should view polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:30 am, January 23rd, 2010 - 7 comments
Hattip: NickS linking to PhD comics
Granny is surprised, no-one else is.
Written By: - Date published: 5:29 pm, January 3rd, 2010 - 12 comments
John Banks is steadily dropping away from a possibility of gaining the Auckland super-city mayoralty. A Herald online poll has John Banks falling to third in preference behind Steven Tindall – who has not even declared that he is interested or would run. Len Brown is far higher in preference. Self-selecting online polls are about […]
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