polls

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A change to what?

Written By: IrishBill - Date published: 11:35 am, May 17th, 2008 - 192 comments

As we all know the latest Fairfax poll has shown a huge lead for the National Party. Now I’m of the opinion it’s probably a rogue poll and we could argue that point (and methodology, and trends, etc) until the cows come home but I’m interested in something else. If this poll was hypothetically the […]

Fairfax poll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 11:31 am, May 17th, 2008 - 27 comments

This morning’s Fairfax poll is bad news for Labour, with National easily having the numbers to govern alone. Following the hugely popular rail buyback it’s hard to see what could have caused a swing of this size, so it’ll be interesting to see if the next few polls show a similar trend. The Greens and […]

Roy Morgan

Written By: Tane - Date published: 12:06 pm, May 12th, 2008 - 36 comments

There was a new Roy Morgan poll out on Friday. No major changes – Labour continues to hover around the mid-30s and National around 50. The minor parties are still all over the place and New Zealand First remains a wildcard. Interestingly Roy Morgan also reported results for Auckland vs the rest of the country […]

Herald Digipoll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 10:41 am, April 30th, 2008 - 33 comments

Today’s Herald Digipoll has National up 2 points and Labour down 2, a result the Herald describes as the “Nats pulling away”. As ever you can’t read too much into a single poll, but the pattern continues to show National coming off the highs in the mid 50s it reached earlier this year and Labour […]

Roy Morgan

Written By: Tane - Date published: 9:48 am, April 24th, 2008 - 32 comments

No real surprises in the latest Roy Morgan poll, but Gary Morgan’s hilariously bad political analysis continues. You’ll remember in the last Morgan poll our man Gary put the thirty percent increase in the Greens’ support down to Earth Hour, and this week he’s at it again: the Greens are down 2.5% to 6.5% – […]

Reading the tealeaves

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 12:06 pm, April 21st, 2008 - 25 comments

One News reports on their Colmar Brunton poll showing a 19 point lead to National and Key ahead in the preferred PM stakes: Labour continues to trail National – There’s more bad news for Labour in the latest ONE News Colmar Brunton poll. It’s trailing well behind National but the results suggest the governing party […]

Conflicting polls

Written By: Tane - Date published: 11:59 am, April 21st, 2008 - 11 comments

The two political polls on TV last night say far more about the limitations of political polling than they do about the likely makeup of the next Parliament. Last night’s TVNZ poll, conducted by New Zealand’s least reliable polling company, showed National gaining ground, Labour down in the dumps and the Greens dropping out of […]

Roy Morgan

Written By: Tane - Date published: 2:18 pm, April 14th, 2008 - 37 comments

Now this is looking better: As usual Gary Morgan’s analysis is laughable, attributing the thirty percent increase in the Greens’ support to… Earth hour. Yes, Earth hour. Stick to the polling Gaz, and leave the punditry to the pundits.

Herald Digipoll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 10:44 am, March 29th, 2008 - 56 comments

The New Zealand Herald reports that Labour has almost halved National’s lead in its latest DigiPoll survey, following a month “memorable for slip-ups and lacklustre performances by leader John Key.” Labour’s managed to claw its way up towards the 40% mark and that’s good news for the Left, which is now back within striking distance of […]

Colmar Brunton

Written By: Tane - Date published: 3:39 pm, March 17th, 2008 - 11 comments

TVNZ had another Colmar Brunton poll last night. The gap between National and Labour remains substantial, but has closed by four points since last poll. UPDATE: In a comical twist that bodes poorly for Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne, it seems Colmar Brunton has the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party now polling as high as both […]

Roy Morgan

Written By: Tane - Date published: 2:40 pm, March 10th, 2008 - 28 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, covering the period February 18 – March 2. The poll shows National still able to govern alone, but after John Key’s performance last week it’s looking increasingly unlikely that National will be able to hold onto its 15 point lead until polling day. A few more points for […]

Mao Zedong features as preferred PM

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 12:23 pm, March 3rd, 2008 - 21 comments

As Helen Clark and John Key continue to jockey for top spot as preferred PM, Mao Zedong has made his first appearance in a Herald Digipoll. Media commentators are pointing to this as evidence that these polls are largely worthless. National aren’t so philosophical. Insiders indicate that National are far from happy with Mao’s appearance […]

Herald-Digipoll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 11:29 am, March 3rd, 2008 - 31 comments

The latest Herald-Digipoll shows National continuing its huge lead over Labour. It’s a rather strange looking Parliament, with the Greens dropping below the threshold with only 4.4% of the vote. I do find that hard to believe though, given the same poll had the Greens at 9% just a month ago. Either way, it shows […]

Maori play it smart

Written By: Steve Pierson - Date published: 11:27 am, March 3rd, 2008 - 13 comments

The Marae-Digipoll has the political commentators all excited over what has been accepted fact in the blogosphere for some time: the Maori party will win all the Maori seats and will probably be Kingmaker. The poll shows that Maori voters overwhelmingly favour Maori Party candidates and are evenly split on giving their party vote to […]

Colmar Brunton poll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 11:21 am, February 18th, 2008 - 25 comments

The polls seem to be all over the place at the moment, with last night’s TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll showing National out to a 19 point lead over Labour. That’s quite a swing from recent polls, which have shown the gap between the two major parties narrowing to within ten points, and although Colmar Brunton has […]

Roy Morgan

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 11:45 am, February 12th, 2008 - 7 comments

Roy Morgan’s latest poll is out. It shows a big drop of 6.5 for National and a corresponding swing to Labour and the Greens, up 3 and 2.5 respectively. Here’s a small version of their graph of the trends:

TV3 poll presents challenge

Written By: Dancer - Date published: 11:28 pm, February 5th, 2008 - 38 comments

The latest TV3 poll comes hot on the heels of Labour MPs gathering for their first caucus meeting of the year. “National can govern alone in the latest 3 News poll at 49 percent. It has shed two points, from what was an artificial high.But Labour drops to 35 percent, the lowest it has been […]

Roy Morgan poll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 12:52 pm, December 21st, 2007 - 10 comments

Here’s the latest Roy Morgan poll. Nothing too unexpected, but interesting to see the Greens and NZ First both over the 5% threshold. I’m off to get drunk. Merry Xmas.

Polls

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 9:36 am, December 17th, 2007 - 92 comments

From The Dom: A One News Colmar Brunton poll last night has National on 54 per cent, 19 points clear of Labour. A Three News TNS poll has National with a slimmer lead – 51 to 36 – but still well ahead. Well I doubt they enjoy being behind but this can hardly be a […]

Gap roughly unchanged in Morgan poll

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 9:14 am, December 5th, 2007 - 89 comments

From RoyMorgan.com: In the second half of November support for the New Zealand Labour Government was up 1% to 35% while support for the Nationals remained unchanged at 48%, the New Zealand Morgan Poll finds. The poll also shows the Greens above the threshold on 6.5%, down 1%, and NZ First hanging on at 5%.

Latest DigiPoll favours National, Clark

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 6:31 pm, November 28th, 2007 - 67 comments

The Herald reports that: National has hit its highest rating – 51.3 per cent – in a Herald-DigiPoll survey. Translated to votes, that would mean the party could govern alone. Labour has slipped to 13.2 points behind National, increasing last month’s 12.4-point gap… Helen Clark is still well ahead of Mr Key as preferred prime […]

Roy Morgan poll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 9:18 am, November 21st, 2007 - 22 comments

There’s a new new Roy Morgan poll out and it’s not good news for Labour. Gary Morgan says: “The recent plunge in support for the Labour Party follows the mishandling of the domestic terrorism case with the October 15 arrests of Maori activists in Ruatoki. “Solicitor-General David Collins’ ruling on November 8 that the Government’s […]

Fairfax poll

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 5:43 am, November 17th, 2007 - 70 comments

The Dom Post reports that: National’s support slid from 50 to 45 per cent in a Fairfax Media-Nielsen poll released today. Labour jumped four to 40 per cent from Fairfax’s September poll, close to the 41 per cent it scored in the 2005 election. There is also surprising opposition to tax cuts – despite Labour’s […]

Pretend polling

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 10:03 am, November 16th, 2007 - 32 comments

Dodgy online polls seem to be becoming a staple of political reporting here in New Zealand. The story earlier this week on poll “hacking” sent me in search of an insightful opinion I’d heard previously. So today, we have a guest author on The Standard – BPGP, on “Pretend polling”. Pretend Polling BPGP So for […]

Landslide sliding away

Written By: Eddie - Date published: 11:53 am, November 15th, 2007 - 16 comments

The Roy Morgan poll results have been included in the latest rolling poll from Molesworth and Featherston and shows that National – despite John Key’s confident prediction of a landslide victory (The Press, 9 Jun 2007) – is going to have to lift its game if it wants to present itself as a viable alternative. […]

Roy Morgan poll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 2:45 pm, November 9th, 2007 - 37 comments

There’s a new Roy Morgan poll today, and it’s good news for the left. Gary Morgan says: “The vote for the Labour Government has surpassed the 40% mark for the first time since January. Conversely, the vote for John Key’s Nationals (45%) is at its lowest level since March. “Since early August, the Labour vote […]

Herald Digipoll

Written By: Tane - Date published: 3:21 pm, October 30th, 2007 - 15 comments

Today’s Herald Digipoll is not good news for Labour, coming off the back of last week’s positive Roy Morgan poll which showed a centre-left majority. As the Herald notes, on the basis of this poll National has enough support to govern alone. But what it also demonstrates is the mistake National has made in devouring […]

Roy Morgan

Written By: John A - Date published: 6:25 pm, October 26th, 2007 - 36 comments

There’s a new Roy Morgan out today. It covers the date range 1-14 October 2007. Gary Morgan said of the result: As was suggested in the previous New Zealand Morgan Poll, National Leader John Key’s recent policy gaffes have handed Helen Clark and her Labour Government a golden opportunity to make up some ground. In […]

DigiPoll: Nats down, Labour up

Written By: Natwatch - Date published: 11:26 am, September 29th, 2007 - 2 comments

The Herald DigiPoll survey puts National on 44.8 per cent support, down 5.5 points on the August poll. That’s its lowest rating in the survey since February. Labour is up 2.8 points to 39.6 per cent. This is a dramatic closure. The Herald puts it down to “a month when National’s leader, John Key, has […]

Online polls

Written By: all_your_base - Date published: 5:42 pm, August 30th, 2007 - Comments Off on Online polls

National Party blogger David Farrar writes: “The poll had Key leading Clark by 2:1 consistently all of Tuesday. Then a huge splurt of votes today with 85% of them being for Clark. The Herald should publish the IP addresses of any mass multiple voting.” What’s that? Stop the presses! “A huge splurt of votes”. That […]