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March Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, March 21st, 2015 - 61 comments
National down again and Labour up again in the latest Roy Morgan poll.
Andrew Little; leadership, loyalty and lasting the distance.
Written By: - Date published: 1:19 pm, February 26th, 2015 - 64 comments
Its 100 days since the NZ Labour Party elected Andrew Little as its leader. What an inspired decision that has turned out to be! Little has galvanised the party, united the caucus and looks set to be the next PM. How has he turned Labour around?
Three polls is a trend
Written By: - Date published: 7:05 am, February 23rd, 2015 - 79 comments
That’s the third poll this year to have Labour well up to 30% range.
Another Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, February 21st, 2015 - 79 comments
Another Roy Morgan poll out late last night makes decent reading for Little, Labour and the left.
How does Labour keep the momentum?
Written By: - Date published: 7:11 am, February 2nd, 2015 - 216 comments
Labour have bounced back well from the disastrous election result. But how do they keep up the momentum?
Little’s leadership
Written By: - Date published: 11:09 am, February 1st, 2015 - 97 comments
Two positive pieces in The Herald today on Andrew Little’s leadership.
Media don’t believe their own polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:14 am, September 21st, 2014 - 62 comments
What strikes me now is the media commentators saying it was “a surprising result”. Well, if we were to believe all the polls, then this result is not a surprise. This tells us that the media don’t believe their own polls.
Polity: Shameful, innumerate reporting of Herald poll
Written By: - Date published: 8:48 am, September 19th, 2014 - 32 comments
If a politics editor at a major National newspaper doesn’t know basic statistics, then you’d have to ask how she retains her job? Having a jonolist apparently deliberately distort the meaning of a poll that is taken, and whose results was not linked to in the article, is a complete travesty.
Three final polls
Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, September 19th, 2014 - 98 comments
Three last polls and National’s support is declining, Labour’s improving and the Greens are stable. Things are getting very close with Winston Peters looking more and more likely to hold the balance of power. This election will be decided vote by vote.
Key’s support ebbing
Written By: - Date published: 6:45 am, September 12th, 2014 - 67 comments
National have gambled everything on “Team Key”. They may yet wish that they hadn’t.
NRT: Kiwis care about inequality
Written By: - Date published: 3:46 pm, August 29th, 2014 - 8 comments
Roy Morgan has a poll out today looking at the issues affecting New Zealanders and therefore this election. Social inequality is rising as an issue as the world economy has stopped getting worse.
I think that most New Zealanders…
Written By: - Date published: 12:35 pm, August 28th, 2014 - 17 comments
Our PM is fond of telling us all what we think. In the wake of Dirty Politics he is working it overtime, telling us all that we believe his spin. Interesting then to get some actual data on what (extrapolating from a sample) most New Zealanders really do think. Many thanks to the Horizon polling people for putting this up on line.
Our Friends in the North
Written By: - Date published: 6:31 pm, August 6th, 2014 - 225 comments
It’s been an interesting few days in the battle for Te Tai Tokerau. Never mind the bollocks, people. The question for Labour isn’t should we stand aside for Hone in the north or Mana/IP anywhere else. The question is ‘do we need ’em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no.
Latest Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 3:04 pm, July 31st, 2014 - 196 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll records a significant swing to the left with National now on 46%, Labour 30% and the Greens 12%. One poll only and obviously more work needs to be done but …
Polity: Poll of polls update
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 22nd, 2014 - 30 comments
The overall strength of the status quo bloc at around 54%, and the strength of the change bloc a little under 46%. The picture ain’t pretty.
Polity: New Polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:43 am, July 17th, 2014 - 161 comments
The Roy Morgan and Fairfax/Ipsos polls out overnight are both bad news for the cause of positive change in New Zealand. Labour is below 25% in both polls, which is disaster territory if is solidifies. The potential coalitions of the left look just as bad. This doesn’t look like a change in the left-right split. The effects of the National / NZ Herald /Liu smear campaign feeding through fits the usual polling lag time period of about 4-6 weeks.
Polity: National dropped 6% in 2008, 2011 campaigns
Written By: - Date published: 4:18 pm, July 7th, 2014 - 8 comments
At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.
It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.
NRT: Who’d have thunk it?
Written By: - Date published: 2:23 pm, June 27th, 2014 - 60 comments
Capital gains tax is now accepted by a more people than who oppose it. But for a policy long considered a “third rail” of New Zealand politics, its a significant shift. It ought to put paid forever to the idea that parties must go with the flow of public opinion because they are unable to affect it. Weak parties are. But if Labour stops being scared of its own shadow and afraid of its left-wing heritage, it can actually change things, and build the majorities it needs to govern.
Local Bodies: Politics, Sharks and Voter Apathy
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, June 23rd, 2014 - 10 comments
I had a conversation at our farmer’s market this morning about how my election campaign was going and the person I was speaking to had the view that all politicians don’t actually do much, apart from talking. I find that this thinking is actually fairly common, many people talk about the nonsense that goes on in Parliament and how all politicians are as bad as each other, “It doesn’t matter who you vote for, nothing really changes.” I find this view really frustrating, but at the same time I can see why people may feel this way.
Polity: Herald poll
Written By: - Date published: 3:14 pm, June 17th, 2014 - 60 comments
Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the Herald poll published this morning and looks at what ground the left has to make up. Over recent polls the right vote appears to have been consolidating more and more strongly behind National over the course of this year. The formation of the Internet Mana Party doesn’t appear to have made much impact on their combined vote. Also the various poll of polls corrected for known biases and looking at probably seat allocations don’t look good either. Some work for the progressive parties to make up over the next 95 days.
Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary
Written By: - Date published: 10:54 am, June 7th, 2014 - 47 comments
Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%. It is after the Budget and ended before the Banks stuff. Most is probably the post-budget spike. But the government parties are in a lot worse position than they were before the 2011 election.
Labour please take note.
Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, May 26th, 2014 - 71 comments
The more that National publicly adopts “left wing” “socialist” party policies, such as “free” medical care for children under 13, keeping the retirement age as it is, and balancing the budget, the more they rise in the polls.
Polity: Trevett wrong on polls
Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, May 11th, 2014 - 33 comments
The activists and very often the geeks of the local political system hang around blogs. They crunch numbers and sample opinions. Like Rob at Polity, we’re always kind of amazed when we read the type of misinformation and outright bullshit that Claire Trevett wrote this weekend about internal polling inside parties. That the subsequent events virtually never seem to back up the claims of the gullible political press gallery people who make them, also never seems to get them to realize that they have been suckered again for political advantage. They must just like biting the hooks.
Latest Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 7th, 2014 - 168 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll result is out and although it bounces around and trends rather than individual results are more important National’s support has slumped signficicantly and Labour’s and the Green’s support has risen.
Polity: The new TV polls
Written By: - Date published: 7:13 pm, March 31st, 2014 - 24 comments
The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls. National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.
LocalBodies: National Slumps in Polls As Ministers Struggle
Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, March 24th, 2014 - 22 comments
There is danger of reading too much into polls months out from an election. Commentators were claiming that National was too strong to lose the next election based on a rogue poll. Few looked at multiple polls, accounted for the margin of error nor the trends over past months. The last fortnight has seen a National with the latest Roy Morgan Poll plummeting from the Colmar Brunton result of 51% to 45.5%. And it is based on a lack of ministerial performance…
Polity: Endangered! Polls without cell phones
Written By: - Date published: 5:07 pm, March 13th, 2014 - 28 comments
Here’s a pretty astounding graphic from the US about cellphone vs landline use. The US is a few years ahead of New Zealand on mobile adoption and decoupling from landlines, but Rob Salmond thinks that within 5 years we will see these kinds of proportions in New Zealand. This will make current pollsters’ policies of refusing to call cell phones hugely problematic…
Polity: X more thoughts on poll bias
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, February 26th, 2014 - 26 comments
Whenever the media report on polls, they get accused of all manner of biases by the blinkered commentariat. Most of it is nonsense, of course. But some criticism of the polling methods themselves may have more merit that Rob Salmond first thought. While he is not yelling “fire” at this stage, he does think there may be smoke. Something that he did not think that three years ago.
On polls and things
Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, February 25th, 2014 - 106 comments
The periodic agony and ecstasy attached to opinion poll results has kicked in with a pessimistic TVOne poll result being released on the weekend. But how accurate are they and are we in danger of damaging an election campaign by focussing too much on them?
Polity: Chris Trotter – “gaseous exhalations”
Written By: - Date published: 11:37 am, February 20th, 2014 - 71 comments
Yesterday, Rob Salmond offered Chris Trotter a bet based on Chris writing an over-excited interpretation of an online poll. Who writes posts on the basis of online polls of less than 400 people? It is the same problem as interpreting small junk “markets” like iPredict which are rife with idiots of the right trying to push the odds away from reality with small amounts of cash. Really!
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Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.
Unemployment is definitely up.