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Northland: 3News Poll Nails Nats.
Written By: - Date published: 6:35 pm, March 25th, 2015 - 113 comments
Well, it’s pretty much a done deal now. Winston’s going to win Northland. But who’s the biggest loser?
March Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 7:13 am, March 21st, 2015 - 61 comments
National down again and Labour up again in the latest Roy Morgan poll.
Andrew Little; leadership, loyalty and lasting the distance.
Written By: - Date published: 1:19 pm, February 26th, 2015 - 64 comments
Its 100 days since the NZ Labour Party elected Andrew Little as its leader. What an inspired decision that has turned out to be! Little has galvanised the party, united the caucus and looks set to be the next PM. How has he turned Labour around?
Three polls is a trend
Written By: - Date published: 7:05 am, February 23rd, 2015 - 79 comments
That’s the third poll this year to have Labour well up to 30% range.
Another Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 7:20 am, February 21st, 2015 - 79 comments
Another Roy Morgan poll out late last night makes decent reading for Little, Labour and the left.
How does Labour keep the momentum?
Written By: - Date published: 7:11 am, February 2nd, 2015 - 216 comments
Labour have bounced back well from the disastrous election result. But how do they keep up the momentum?
Little’s leadership
Written By: - Date published: 11:09 am, February 1st, 2015 - 97 comments
Two positive pieces in The Herald today on Andrew Little’s leadership.
Media don’t believe their own polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:14 am, September 21st, 2014 - 62 comments
What strikes me now is the media commentators saying it was “a surprising result”. Well, if we were to believe all the polls, then this result is not a surprise. This tells us that the media don’t believe their own polls.
Polity: Shameful, innumerate reporting of Herald poll
Written By: - Date published: 8:48 am, September 19th, 2014 - 32 comments
If a politics editor at a major National newspaper doesn’t know basic statistics, then you’d have to ask how she retains her job? Having a jonolist apparently deliberately distort the meaning of a poll that is taken, and whose results was not linked to in the article, is a complete travesty.
Three final polls
Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, September 19th, 2014 - 98 comments
Three last polls and National’s support is declining, Labour’s improving and the Greens are stable. Things are getting very close with Winston Peters looking more and more likely to hold the balance of power. This election will be decided vote by vote.
Key’s support ebbing
Written By: - Date published: 6:45 am, September 12th, 2014 - 67 comments
National have gambled everything on “Team Key”. They may yet wish that they hadn’t.
NRT: Kiwis care about inequality
Written By: - Date published: 3:46 pm, August 29th, 2014 - 8 comments
Roy Morgan has a poll out today looking at the issues affecting New Zealanders and therefore this election. Social inequality is rising as an issue as the world economy has stopped getting worse.
I think that most New Zealanders…
Written By: - Date published: 12:35 pm, August 28th, 2014 - 17 comments
Our PM is fond of telling us all what we think. In the wake of Dirty Politics he is working it overtime, telling us all that we believe his spin. Interesting then to get some actual data on what (extrapolating from a sample) most New Zealanders really do think. Many thanks to the Horizon polling people for putting this up on line.
Our Friends in the North
Written By: - Date published: 6:31 pm, August 6th, 2014 - 225 comments
It’s been an interesting few days in the battle for Te Tai Tokerau. Never mind the bollocks, people. The question for Labour isn’t should we stand aside for Hone in the north or Mana/IP anywhere else. The question is ‘do we need ’em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no.
Latest Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 3:04 pm, July 31st, 2014 - 196 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll records a significant swing to the left with National now on 46%, Labour 30% and the Greens 12%. One poll only and obviously more work needs to be done but …
Polity: Poll of polls update
Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, July 22nd, 2014 - 30 comments
The overall strength of the status quo bloc at around 54%, and the strength of the change bloc a little under 46%. The picture ain’t pretty.
Polity: New Polls
Written By: - Date published: 11:43 am, July 17th, 2014 - 161 comments
The Roy Morgan and Fairfax/Ipsos polls out overnight are both bad news for the cause of positive change in New Zealand. Labour is below 25% in both polls, which is disaster territory if is solidifies. The potential coalitions of the left look just as bad. This doesn’t look like a change in the left-right split. The effects of the National / NZ Herald /Liu smear campaign feeding through fits the usual polling lag time period of about 4-6 weeks.
Polity: National dropped 6% in 2008, 2011 campaigns
Written By: - Date published: 4:18 pm, July 7th, 2014 - 8 comments
At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.
National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.
It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.
NRT: Who’d have thunk it?
Written By: - Date published: 2:23 pm, June 27th, 2014 - 60 comments
Capital gains tax is now accepted by a more people than who oppose it. But for a policy long considered a “third rail” of New Zealand politics, its a significant shift. It ought to put paid forever to the idea that parties must go with the flow of public opinion because they are unable to affect it. Weak parties are. But if Labour stops being scared of its own shadow and afraid of its left-wing heritage, it can actually change things, and build the majorities it needs to govern.
Local Bodies: Politics, Sharks and Voter Apathy
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, June 23rd, 2014 - 10 comments
I had a conversation at our farmer’s market this morning about how my election campaign was going and the person I was speaking to had the view that all politicians don’t actually do much, apart from talking. I find that this thinking is actually fairly common, many people talk about the nonsense that goes on in Parliament and how all politicians are as bad as each other, “It doesn’t matter who you vote for, nothing really changes.” I find this view really frustrating, but at the same time I can see why people may feel this way.
Polity: Herald poll
Written By: - Date published: 3:14 pm, June 17th, 2014 - 60 comments
Rob Salmond at Polity looks at the Herald poll published this morning and looks at what ground the left has to make up. Over recent polls the right vote appears to have been consolidating more and more strongly behind National over the course of this year. The formation of the Internet Mana Party doesn’t appear to have made much impact on their combined vote. Also the various poll of polls corrected for known biases and looking at probably seat allocations don’t look good either. Some work for the progressive parties to make up over the next 95 days.
Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary
Written By: - Date published: 10:54 am, June 7th, 2014 - 47 comments
Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%. It is after the Budget and ended before the Banks stuff. Most is probably the post-budget spike. But the government parties are in a lot worse position than they were before the 2011 election.
Labour please take note.
Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, May 26th, 2014 - 71 comments
The more that National publicly adopts “left wing” “socialist” party policies, such as “free” medical care for children under 13, keeping the retirement age as it is, and balancing the budget, the more they rise in the polls.
Polity: Trevett wrong on polls
Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, May 11th, 2014 - 33 comments
The activists and very often the geeks of the local political system hang around blogs. They crunch numbers and sample opinions. Like Rob at Polity, we’re always kind of amazed when we read the type of misinformation and outright bullshit that Claire Trevett wrote this weekend about internal polling inside parties. That the subsequent events virtually never seem to back up the claims of the gullible political press gallery people who make them, also never seems to get them to realize that they have been suckered again for political advantage. They must just like biting the hooks.
Latest Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 7th, 2014 - 168 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll result is out and although it bounces around and trends rather than individual results are more important National’s support has slumped signficicantly and Labour’s and the Green’s support has risen.
Polity: The new TV polls
Written By: - Date published: 7:13 pm, March 31st, 2014 - 24 comments
The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls. National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.
LocalBodies: National Slumps in Polls As Ministers Struggle
Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, March 24th, 2014 - 22 comments
There is danger of reading too much into polls months out from an election. Commentators were claiming that National was too strong to lose the next election based on a rogue poll. Few looked at multiple polls, accounted for the margin of error nor the trends over past months. The last fortnight has seen a National with the latest Roy Morgan Poll plummeting from the Colmar Brunton result of 51% to 45.5%. And it is based on a lack of ministerial performance…
Polity: Endangered! Polls without cell phones
Written By: - Date published: 5:07 pm, March 13th, 2014 - 28 comments
Here’s a pretty astounding graphic from the US about cellphone vs landline use. The US is a few years ahead of New Zealand on mobile adoption and decoupling from landlines, but Rob Salmond thinks that within 5 years we will see these kinds of proportions in New Zealand. This will make current pollsters’ policies of refusing to call cell phones hugely problematic…
Polity: X more thoughts on poll bias
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, February 26th, 2014 - 26 comments
Whenever the media report on polls, they get accused of all manner of biases by the blinkered commentariat. Most of it is nonsense, of course. But some criticism of the polling methods themselves may have more merit that Rob Salmond first thought. While he is not yelling “fire” at this stage, he does think there may be smoke. Something that he did not think that three years ago.
- We rated the urban forests of 8 global cities – only Singapore passed the 30% canopy test
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thami Croeser, Research Fellow, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University Ryan DeBerardinis, Shutterstock Can you see three trees from your home, school or workplace? Is there tree canopy cover shading at least 30% of the surrounding neighbourhood? Can you find a ...4 days ago - More children going hungry, Health Survey shows
Meanwhile, wait times for GPs keep increasing, along with rates of mental distress. ...4 days ago - Kiwi pilot kidnapping in West Papua leads to police raids in Australia
By Duncan Graham An alleged plot involving firearms and threatening the life of New Zealand pilot Philip Mehrtens when held hostage in Papua this year is being investigated by the Australian Federal Police. The case involves “advancing a political cause by the separation of West Papua from Indonesia . . ...4 days ago
- 42,000 join as Treaty Principles Bill hīkoi reaches Parliament
By mid-afternoon today 42,000 people gathered at the Parliamentary precinct and the surrounding streets, police say. ...4 days ago
- Political finance law reforms will reduce big money in politics, but will rich donors be the ultimat...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joo-Cheong Tham, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne Political funding in Australia has long been shrouded in secrecy. It is also dominated by large donations and unrestrained spending, courtesy of laissez-faire federal political finance laws. The Albanese government has ...4 days ago
- Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke reacts to haka heard around the world
In the face of criticism, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke says there was definitely a moment of 'what just happened?', after the House was suspended during voting. ...4 days ago - ‘What’s good for Māori is good for everyone’ – hīkoi ends with peaceful pr...
The capital turned into a sea of black, white and red today, as more than 42,000 people supporting te Hīkoi mō te tiriti overflowed Parliament's grounds and onto the streets. ...4 days ago
- Bunnings breached privacy law by scanning customers’ faces – but this loophole lets other shops ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Margarita Vladimirova, PhD in Privacy Law and Facial Recognition Technology, Deakin University Nils Versemann/Shutterstock Hardware giant Bunnings breached the privacy of “likely hundreds of thousands” of Australians through its use of facial recognition technology, the Privacy Commissioner ruled today. “Individuals who ...4 days ago
- Could keeping native species as pets save them from extinction? Here’s why it’s not that simple
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meg Edwards, Lecturer in Wildlife Science, University of Southern Queensland Captive squirrel glider Author provided, CC BY Humans have been turning wild animals into pets for thousands of years. Pets – animals kept for companionship, not for food or work – were ...4 days ago
- Why did the US change its mind on Ukraine firing missiles into Russia? And will it impact the war?
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Richardson, Visiting Fellow, Centre for European Studies, Australian National University The lifting of US restrictions on the use of ATACMS ballistic missiles by Ukraine may help it repel Russian forces trying to retake Russian territory seized by Ukraine earlier this year. ...5 days ago
- Albanese government gives firm ‘no’ to joining UK-US agreement to advance nuclear technology
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government has been put on the spot by a new agreement – which it has declined to join – signed by the United Kingdom and the United States to speed up the deployment of ...5 days ago
- The government wants to keep cash alive for buying essentials. Here’s why it’s such a challenge ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steve Worthington, Adjunct Professor, Swinburne University of Technology Cre8tive Images/Shutterstock Cash usage has fallen off a cliff in Australia, but the federal government says it must have a future. So, it’s going to mandate one. The Australian government will require ...5 days ago
- Time for soldiers to do civilian work extended until mid-February
The government has notified Parliament it is extending the time soldiers will be filling in for their striking non-uniformed colleagues until Valentines Day. ...5 days ago
- Live: 42,000 join as Treaty Principles Bill hīkoi reaches Parliament
By mid-afternoon today 42,000 people gathered at the Parliamentary precinct and the surrounding streets, police say. ...5 days ago
- Hīkoi day 9: 35,000 join as Treaty Principles Bill protest reaches Parliament
RNZ News More than 35,000 people today gathered as Aotearoa New Zealand’s Hīkoi mō te Tiriti overflowed from Parliament’s grounds and onto nearby streets in the capital Wellington Pōneke. Eru Kapa-Kingi told the crowd “Māori nation has been born” today and that “Te Tiriti is forever”. ACT leader David Seymour ...5 days ago
- Hīkoi not representative of New Zealand, David Seymour says
Seymour came out of the Beehive today to acknowledge the hīkoi and wave at the protesters - but retreated inside after just a few minutes. ...5 days ago
- Alan Jones once seemed unassailable. What ended it was a peculiarly Sydney story of media, politics ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Advancing Journalism, The University of Melbourne For decades it seemed Alan Jones was unassailable. A finding against him of professional misconduct by the Australian Broadcasting Authority (2000); a finding that he incited hatred, serious contempt ...5 days ago
- Daily smoking rates flat-line, youth vaping keeps rising – NZ Health Survey
Daily smoking rates have flat-lined after dramatic falls in previous years, while vaping among younger people continues to rise. ...5 days ago
- Watch: Traffic-stopping haka breaks out during hīkoi to Parliament
Vehicles were barred from entering the intersection as a group of men performed the haka to a crowd of hundreds of onlookers. ...5 days ago
- Hīkoi to Parliament: The families taking part and why
The hīkoi is a family affair, with tamariki everywhere; pepe sleeping in carts and buggies or tugging their cousins' hair. ...5 days ago
- The best signs from the final day of the Toitū Te Tiriti hīkoi
How many ways can you say you’re pissed off? A good protest sign signifies all the things you want to say at a demonstration: I’m here, I care and I’ve found the most fed up/witty/creative way to express this. And after a week of nationwide protests for the Toitū Te ...5 days ago - Pike River: 14 Years On And Far Too Many Of Us Are Being Injured At Work
"The Minister’s actions on health and safety show the Minister has failed to understand the lessons of Pike River. Instead of boosting health and safety at work, her party and her Government are looking for ways to water down the protections it has delivered." ...5 days ago
- Live: 35,000 join as Treaty Principles Bill hīkoi reaches Parliament
Hīkoi mō te Tiriti is heading for Waitangi Park and heavy traffic through the CBD is expected ahead of the evening commute. ...5 days ago
- Dunedin Hospital protesters rally to support campaign
About 1000 people turned up to hear why building the hospital as planned, was important. ...5 days ago
- Watch: ‘Kill the bill, kill the bill’ – David Seymour walks out, waves to proteste...
The ACT leader was met with chants of "Kill the bill, kill the bill" when he walked out of the Beehive, before waving to the crowd and returning inside. ...5 days ago
- Livestream: 35,000 join as Treaty Principles Bill hīkoi reaches Parliament
The Treaty Principles Bill's architect made a brief appearance, and was met with chanting, as 35,000 people protesting overflowed from Parliament's lawn. ...5 days ago
- Public humiliation is still a common teaching tool in medical education. Here’s how it leaves pati...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carolyn Heward, Lecturer, Clinical Psychology, James Cook University Monkey Business Images/Shutterstock Imagine being questioned about complex technical knowledge in front of your peers, supervisors, and members of the public – knowing that a wrong answer could lead to public ridicule. ...5 days ago
- Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti: The final day march to Parliament in photos
It was an early start for thousands as the hīkoi sets off for its final destination - the grounds of Parliament. ...5 days ago
- It’s clear footy has an Indigenous participation problem, and the AFL draft is only part of the so...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chelsey Taylor, PhD Candidate, Swinburne University of Technology From revolutionary Geelong ruckman Graham “Polly” Farmer, to the electrifying Krakouer brothers (Phil and Jim) at North Melbourne, through to modern stars such as Charlie Cameron, Adam Goodes, Lance Franklin and Eddie Betts, Indigenous ...5 days ago
- What our politicians’ signatures tell us about their personalities
We asked a handwriting expert to analyse the scrawls of our elected officials. Here’s what they said. Recently I received a press release from the trio of ministers – Simeon Brown, Shane Jones and Chris Bishop – tasked with overseeing the government’s controversial fast-track consenting bill. The press release itself ...5 days ago
- Livestream: 19,000 join as Treaty Principles Bill hīkoi reaches Parliament
'The energy, the power-it's palpable here on the ground,' an MP says as a sea of red, black and white flags sorrounds the Beehive. ...5 days ago
- Education minister says kids should be in school instead of at hīkoi
But the son of a haka expert, travelling down with students from Huntly, says "this is all part of our learning, this is their school". ...5 days ago
- Basic rules for screen time at a young age can help reduce childhood obesity – new research
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ladan Hashemi, Senior Research Fellow in Health Sciences, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Childhood obesity is a growing concern worldwide. But in New Zealand it’s a particularly pressing issue. With one of the highest rates in the OECD, about one ...5 days ago
- Livestream: Treaty Principles Bill hīkoi mō te Tiriti at Parliament
Thousands have marched through the streets of a capital and to the Beehive. ...5 days ago
- Kanaky Aotearoa Solidarity Says “Toitū Te Tiriti!”
Kanaky Aotearoa Solidarity supports te hikoi and says Toitū te Tiriti! Māori never ceded sovereignty! ...5 days ago
- Video: Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke reacts to haka heard around the world
In the face of criticism, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke says there was definitely a moment of 'what just happened?', after the House was suspended during voting. ...5 days ago
- Livestream: Treaty Principles Bill hīkoi at Parliament
'The energy, the power-it's palpable here on the ground,' an MP says as a sea of red, black and white flags makes its way to the Beehive and crowds line the streets. ...5 days ago
- Review: Camping is the hyper horny, extremely silly play we need right now
Almost a decade ago, Camping dazzled with four relative unknowns in a tiny venue. Now it returns, with an all-star cast on a bigger stage. Does it still deliver? The original run of Camping, on stage at The Basement, is the funniest and most kinetically bizarre show I’ve seen in ...5 days ago
- ‘We don’t even have a CT scan here’: Dunedin Hospital protesters rally
About 1000 people turned up to hear why building the hospital as planned, was important. ...5 days ago
- Biggest Ever Community Petition, With Over 200,000 Signatures, Opposes Treaty Principles Bill
The country has spoken. This Bill is a bad faith attempt to revoke the Government’s commitments to Te Tiriti o Waitangi, and it’s visible to not just Aotearoa, but the world. ...5 days ago
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