polls

Bait and switch

Written By: Mike Smith - Date published: 10:58 pm, March 30th, 2015 - 64 comments

Congratulations to Labour for a very clever strategy in the Northland by-election – lulling and gulling John Key into thinking they were going to run a conventional proxy-partyvote campaign, where National would have the upper hand.  Key, the rockstar politician, also thought Andrew Little would be on the training wheels.  He got that badly wrong; Little’s handling was superb.

Northland: 3News Poll Nails Nats.

Written By: te reo putake - Date published: 6:35 pm, March 25th, 2015 - 113 comments

Well, it’s pretty much a done deal now. Winston’s going to win Northland. But who’s the biggest loser?

Andrew Little; leadership, loyalty and lasting the distance.

Written By: te reo putake - Date published: 1:19 pm, February 26th, 2015 - 64 comments

Its 100 days since the NZ Labour Party elected Andrew Little as its leader. What an inspired decision that has turned out to be! Little has galvanised the party, united the caucus and looks set to be the next PM. How has he turned Labour around?

Another Roy Morgan

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 7:20 am, February 21st, 2015 - 79 comments

Another Roy Morgan poll out late last night makes decent reading for Little, Labour and the left.

How does Labour keep the momentum?

Written By: Anthony R0bins - Date published: 7:11 am, February 2nd, 2015 - 216 comments

Labour have bounced back well from the disastrous election result. But how do they keep up the momentum?

Media don’t believe their own polls

Written By: notices and features - Date published: 11:14 am, September 21st, 2014 - 62 comments

What strikes me now is the media commentators saying it was “a surprising result”. Well, if we were to believe all the polls, then this result is not a surprise. This tells us that the media don’t believe their own polls.

Three final polls

Written By: mickysavage - Date published: 7:15 am, September 19th, 2014 - 98 comments

Three last polls and National’s support is declining, Labour’s improving and the Greens are stable.  Things are getting very close with Winston Peters looking more and more likely to hold the balance of power.  This election will be decided vote by vote.

NRT: Kiwis care about inequality

Written By: notices and features - Date published: 3:46 pm, August 29th, 2014 - 8 comments

Roy Morgan has a poll out today looking at the issues affecting New Zealanders and therefore this election. Social inequality is rising as an issue as the world economy has stopped getting worse.

Our Friends in the North

Written By: Guest post - Date published: 6:31 pm, August 6th, 2014 - 225 comments

It’s been an interesting few days in the battle for Te Tai Tokerau. Never mind the bollocks, people. The question for Labour isn’t should we stand aside for Hone in the north or Mana/IP anywhere else. The question is ‘do we need ’em?’. The answer is looking more and more like no.

Polity: Poll of polls update

Written By: notices and features - Date published: 7:30 am, July 22nd, 2014 - 30 comments

The overall strength of the status quo bloc at around 54%, and the strength of the change bloc a little under 46%. The picture ain’t pretty.

Polity: National dropped 6% in 2008, 2011 campaigns

Written By: notices and features - Date published: 4:18 pm, July 7th, 2014 - 8 comments

At Rob Salmond’s briefing to Labour’s Congress over the weekend, he made a point about National’s performance in recent campaigns, which was later picked up in David Cunliffe’s speech.

National has dropped six percent each time. For those interested, here is the data that sits beneath this claim.

It is no wonder that John Key is worried when 3 months out from an election they are sitting on less than 50%, with dead and dying coalition partners.

Local Bodies: Politics, Sharks and Voter Apathy

Written By: notices and features - Date published: 7:00 am, June 23rd, 2014 - 10 comments

I had a conversation at our farmer’s market this morning about how my election campaign was going and the person I was speaking to had the view that all politicians don’t actually do much, apart from talking. I find that this thinking is actually fairly common, many people talk about the nonsense that goes on in Parliament and how all politicians are as bad as each other, “It doesn’t matter who you vote for, nothing really changes.”  I find this view really frustrating, but at the same time I can see why people may feel this way.

Polity: Morgan’s poll, and Morgan’s commentary

Written By: notices and features - Date published: 10:54 am, June 7th, 2014 - 47 comments

Earlier this week the latest Roy Morgan poll came out. It was not good news for the left, with National up well over 50% and the Labour/Greens combination languishing below 40%. It is after the Budget and ended before the Banks stuff. Most is probably the post-budget spike. But the government parties are in a lot worse position than they were before the 2011 election.

Polity: Trevett wrong on polls

Written By: notices and features - Date published: 6:13 pm, May 11th, 2014 - 33 comments

The activists and very often the geeks of the local political system hang around blogs. They crunch numbers and sample opinions. Like Rob at Polity, we’re always kind of amazed when we read the type of misinformation and outright bullshit that Claire Trevett wrote this weekend about internal polling inside parties. That the subsequent events virtually never seem to back up the claims of the gullible political press gallery people who make them, also never seems to get them to realize that they have been suckered again for political advantage. They must just like biting the hooks.