Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, May 3rd, 2023 - 138 comments
Meka Whaitiri has quit Labour and confirmed that she will stand for the Maori Party in this year’s election. She intends to stay on as an MP and sit with the Maori Party.
Written By: - Date published: 6:18 pm, March 13th, 2023 - 57 comments
The latest One News Kantar Poll result has been released and it is a doozie.
Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, February 17th, 2023 - 31 comments
Chris Hipkins has so far not put a foot wrong. Since he became PM he has quickly and competently reformed the Cabinet and jettisoned policies that were for one reason or another causing problems. And he has quickly asserted control over two massive storms, the first which pummeled the country’s major city and the second which has caused massive floods to much of the East Coast of the North Island.
Written By: - Date published: 11:32 am, February 12th, 2023 - 30 comments
It is really difficult trying to appear to be Prime Minister material and inclusive and to appeal to racists at the same time. Christopher Luxon this week has shown how difficult it is.
Written By: - Date published: 6:24 pm, January 30th, 2023 - 78 comments
This evening two new political polls have been released both putting Labour ahead of National.
Written By: - Date published: 9:59 am, May 23rd, 2022 - 95 comments
What if instead of waiting for a new left wing party to arise, the left worked with the three progressive parties we already have in parliament?
Written By: - Date published: 5:43 pm, March 25th, 2022 - 118 comments
Can Labour win a third term? Here are some pathways up, and some pathways down.
Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, March 11th, 2022 - 98 comments
Chloe Swarbrick, the cost of living crisis, and what the economy is for.
Written By: - Date published: 10:49 am, October 7th, 2021 - 30 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll was run between August 30th and September 26th. The headline results of Labour/Greens with 55% (increase by 3.5%) against opposition National/Act/Maori parties on 41% (up 0.5%) were good enough. But they also showed the gender split.. Women are deserting the right.
Written By: - Date published: 7:43 am, May 13th, 2021 - 113 comments
There were dramatic scenes in Parliament yesterday. Judith Collins chose to again attack Jacinda Ardern about the He Puapua report. And Māori Party Co leader Rawiri Waititi expressed his disgust at her race baiting in a uniquely New Zealand way.
Written By: - Date published: 8:08 am, April 13th, 2021 - 14 comments
The Electoral laws about donations are pretty clear. Receive a donation over $30,000 and you should tell the Electoral Commission about the report within the next ten working days. But the Maori Party and the National Party have both managed to recently breach this simple requirement.
Written By: - Date published: 7:29 am, February 10th, 2021 - 90 comments
Not wearing a tie in Parliament is a weird issue for the Maori Party to get ready to die in a ditch about. But the rules should be changed.
Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, January 3rd, 2021 - 95 comments
The stand off at Waikeria Prison between inmates and Corrections staff has attracted two responses from opposition parties, one being constructive and helpful and the other being complete and utter grandstanding.
Written By: - Date published: 1:45 pm, December 3rd, 2020 - 20 comments
Colin James and Councillor Tamatha Paul will discuss Colin’s paper “Beyond Jacinda” on Monday 7 December at 5:30pm at Baptist Church, 46-48 Boulcott Street Wellington. It will also be shown on Zoom and available on YouTube. Registration links below. All Welcome.
Written By: - Date published: 2:26 pm, November 6th, 2020 - 56 comments
The Electoral Commission has released the final results of the 2020 election and if election night was a shocker for National the final result is even worse.
Written By: - Date published: 7:42 am, October 21st, 2020 - 99 comments
Tova O’Brien has suggested that a Labour Green joined at the hip coalition is not going to happen. So what will the next Government look like?
Written By: - Date published: 12:32 pm, October 18th, 2020 - 135 comments
What kind of government might New Zealand have?
Written By: - Date published: 2:33 am, October 18th, 2020 - 58 comments
On the preliminary results, we have our expected MPs. While Parliament may change a little, we now know its shape, and its likely members- with about three exceptions.
Written By: - Date published: 10:46 pm, October 16th, 2020 - 10 comments
We’ve had three recent pre-election polls. While we wait for results on election day, let’s have a look at where things might be headed.
Written By: - Date published: 9:23 am, October 12th, 2020 - 52 comments
With six days to go to election day the campaigns have reached interesting stages although the underlying trends and events appear to be good for the left.
Written By: - Date published: 12:03 pm, June 13th, 2020 - 28 comments
Yesterday saw two back bench National MPs unintentionally set National’s position on the Government response to Covid 19 and on Hamilton City’s decision to take down a statute that was repugnant to Waikato Tainui. What has happened to their messaging discipline?
Written By: - Date published: 10:48 am, February 7th, 2020 - 86 comments
The repercussions from Simon Bridges’ disastrous Waitangi performance continue to reverberate. His suggestions that Māori seats and the Waitangi Tribunal should be done away with have resulted in the Māori Party indicating it is more likely to support Labour after the election.
Written By: - Date published: 10:12 pm, February 12th, 2019 - 18 comments
Kia ora koutou readers, and welcome back to the first Pollwatch of 2019, and as our official Worst News™ will tell you, (okay, maybe that’s my opinion of their recent coverage rather than an official thing) it’s a doozy. Part of the reason I started modelling elections probabilistically myself is that looking at just the […]
Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, October 23rd, 2018 - 100 comments
In this triumphant return of Pollwatch, we discuss the increasing likelihood of a Labour-Green coalition at the next election, the security of the two smaller list parties’ tenure, the shocking 2% support of Simon Bridges’ handling of recent political events, and the split in the shadow-race for National Party leader.
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, August 6th, 2018 - 40 comments
The Return of the Pollwatch: Are Labour getting a baby bump? Are National in decline? Are the Greens in existential danger? And do all the previous questions have the same answer?
Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments
Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 am, December 20th, 2017 - 56 comments
“Further, his comments the following evening were confusing and insufficient to correct the inaccurate information for viewers.”
Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, December 12th, 2017 - 43 comments
National is pondering one of the realities of MMP. Without friends its chances of becoming Government are very limited.
Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, October 7th, 2017 - 35 comments
The right wing clobbering machine is already calling a possible Labour Green NZF a “coalition of losers”. Well under MMP a coalition of losers can be the winners. But however you cut it a coalition of liars will always be liars.
Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, September 26th, 2017 - 27 comments
National have maintained their own vote but killed off all their political friends. Which is why their only route to power is now in the hands of an enemy, and why that enemy should be very wary of hitching his wagon to their fading star.
Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, September 24th, 2017 - 361 comments
Some thoughts on the morning after a bitter sweet election result for Labour and the Greens.
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