polls

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Getting there

Written By: - Date published: 7:58 am, April 5th, 2013 - 32 comments

So, the trend in the Roy Morgans continues, ever so painfully slowly to move in the Left’s favour. Since Labour recovered from its election disaster level to 30+, the Left’s support has risen at a bit under 0.2% per month, the Right vice versa. Lab+Green now outpolls National as often as not. But ‘if these trends continue’ is the most dangerous phrase in politics.

On the accuracy of online polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 25th, 2013 - 30 comments

mighty river power prereg 2

Granny Herald: from flawed data, false conclusions

Written By: - Date published: 11:21 am, March 23rd, 2013 - 17 comments

Three of the Herald’s political staff has a crack at trying to explain why National polled 48.5% in the latest Herald-Digipoll. Consensus seems to be that John Key’s an angel sent to earth to do very little but keep enough of the middle class happy enough who’ll never lose. May I humbly suggest an alternative theory – that the Herald-Digipoll is broken.

Good poll for Shearer

Written By: - Date published: 6:28 am, March 22nd, 2013 - 36 comments

The latest Herald Digipoll is mixed news for the left, but good news personally for David Shearer. Even John Armstrong is cautiously impressed…

Polling merry-go-round

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments

The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.

Latest Roy Morgan… a bit shit

Written By: - Date published: 9:09 pm, February 28th, 2013 - 147 comments

I guess the title says it all. The latest Roy Morgan has National at 47.5% (up 3.5%), Labour 30.5% (down 4%), Greens 12.5%, and NZ First at 3%. I’m not really in the mood to piss around with analysis tonight. You’ve heard me moan about the state of Labour enough lately. But it’s not the […]

The poll gods must be crazy

Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, February 25th, 2013 - 43 comments

nation in the polls

Something about deckchairs…

Written By: - Date published: 7:21 pm, February 24th, 2013 - 71 comments

Word is Labour’s reshuffle will be announced tomorrow.

That ‘ol margin of error

Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments

There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of the two most recent polls, it’s just noise – the margin of error. But the underlying trend is still good for the Left…

Poll of polls looking good

Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 137 comments

Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…

Another flatlining Roy Morgan

Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, January 31st, 2013 - 282 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National on 46%, Labour 31.5%, the Greens on 13.5%, and NZ First on 5.5%. It just amazes me the government can still poll close to 50% after stuff up, after stuff up. Were this reflected in an election then you can bank on a National-NZ First Government. I’m sick […]

If these trends continue

Written By: - Date published: 11:47 pm, January 18th, 2013 - 173 comments

Key’s government is falling apart, yet one fact remains stubbornly true: walk down the street and nearly 1 in every 2 people you see supports National, while less than 1 in 3 supports Labour (and the 1 in 8 who support the Greens don’t quite make up the difference). When tonight’s Roy Morgan came out I put down my whisky and pulled by my Roy Morgan excel doc. It’s some grim reading.

State housing vs home ownership

Written By: - Date published: 9:45 am, January 11th, 2013 - 160 comments

Labour’s 2012 Kiwibuild policy has focused on building homes for first time buyers.  Now we are told Labour’s 2011 policy pledging to increase the state housing stock still stands.  This raises many questions: including do-ability and the Labour leadership’s continuing (neoliberal) focus.

Turei: Green Party retrospective

Written By: - Date published: 11:26 am, December 19th, 2012 - 44 comments

Green Party co-leader, Metiria Turei, was confident and clear on TV3, talking about their consistent, disciplined & successful year &: the RONS tax, MP pay rise, government’s poor record, the economy, printing money, jobs, equality issues and child poverty.  Little on green issues. Zero on the climate.  [Update] Turei RNZ interviews.

What’s new? Shearer retrospective.

Written By: - Date published: 11:35 am, December 17th, 2012 - 124 comments

David Shearer was on TV 3 this morning, reflecting on his last year. He claimed that he and Labour are doing well under new and settled leadership, taking a new direction.  How accurate are his claims?

And Fairfax makes three

Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, December 9th, 2012 - 56 comments

After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.

The only poll that matters is on election day

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, December 5th, 2012 - 103 comments

So, recent polls have shown a minor upward blip for Labour.  A minor downward blip for National.  Ergo, David Shearer must immediately appear on TV to extrapolate why and make big sexy claims about how The Gap Is Narrowing and We Will Clearly Return To The Treasury Benches In 2015 2014. Any time in the next month […]

Meanwhile, on Planet Key

Written By: - Date published: 10:47 am, December 3rd, 2012 - 26 comments

Sure, National is still in the mid-40s and Key will back himself to crucify Shearer in the debates, but his own brand is suffering badly. He’s failed on jobs and increasingly being seen as out of touch. So, is making the news for eating a grasshopper really a smart move?

Two good polls for Labour and Shearer

Written By: - Date published: 6:07 pm, December 2nd, 2012 - 122 comments

Individual polls are nothing to get too excited about, it is the trend over time that matters. That said, the TV1 and 3 News polls tonight were both good news for Labour and Shearer.

29%

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, October 27th, 2012 - 172 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour down 4.5% to 29%. There’s no way to varnish it, this is a very bad poll for Labour, particularly for David Shearer. Yeah, it’s just one poll, and it does come off the back of the GCSB tape debacle. But it’s part of a broader trend of Labour […]

Government failing on jobs, education

Written By: - Date published: 7:29 am, October 25th, 2012 - 46 comments

A TV3 poll shows that 49% to 46% of people believe National is failing to build its promised “brighter future”. The two big weaknesses: jobs and education. By nearly 2 to 1 margins, people believe that National is failing to provide full employment (it says something that this isn’t actually a National Party goal) and failing to provide the best education system possible.

Lab+Greens move well clear of National in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, October 11th, 2012 - 98 comments

The Key effect is over. That’s the conclusion you draw from the latest Roy Morgan poll. It shows National down to 41.5% and Lab+Green surging to 47%. The last time National polled consistently in this range was before Key became leader. Now Key’s no longer an asset, it’s only a matter of time before he’s a liability. The Collins and Joyce Factions will be sharpening the knives.

Polls get worse for National

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, October 1st, 2012 - 40 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll has National at its lowest level of support since before the 2008 election

Encouraging polls

Written By: - Date published: 2:53 pm, September 24th, 2012 - 69 comments

Encouraging polls in both NZ and America.

What the polls are saying

Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, September 4th, 2012 - 39 comments

I reckon that if Labour and the Greens combined get more votes than National next election, they’ll be able to find enough support parties to govern. Vice versa too. Until March, Lab+Green had been less then National for over four years. Since then, it has been equal or above half the time. In both August polls, Lab+Green was ahead.

Strategy and opinion

Written By: - Date published: 8:21 pm, August 15th, 2012 - 150 comments

Thanks to Rob Salmond and Josie Pagani it is now clear that Labour’s pitch to the  centre is an intentional strategy. That is helpful as now perhaps we can have a reasonable discussion about how well it’s working, and what else might work better.

Put away the knives, the polls are up!

Written By: - Date published: 9:59 pm, August 10th, 2012 - 144 comments

I suspect that the knives that were out for a couple days this week will be quietly slipped back into their sheaths now. Labour’s up in the latest Roy Morgan. So are the Greens. The Left’s at 46% vs the Banks Key Government’s 44.5%. We won’t see more hamfisted attempts to undermine Shearer and attack Cunliffe clearing the path for someone else. Well, not until the next bad poll.

3 News polls mums and dads

Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, August 10th, 2012 - 43 comments

Turns out that not many “mums and dads” are planning to buy shares in their own assets.

Race-baiting works, a little

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, August 6th, 2012 - 163 comments

Meh. National has race-baited over water rights to win back some of its wavering lower-middle class Pakeha support. It’s won some of that support back. For now. The thing about turning tides is that not every wave, or even every set of waves for some time, reaches less far up the beach than the one lowest before. Within each cycle there are dips and spikes due to events. Doesn’t change the cycle.

Coincidence?

Written By: - Date published: 8:37 am, July 30th, 2012 - 90 comments

Yet more evidence that women are the smarter sex.

What the polls actually show

Written By: - Date published: 9:10 am, July 23rd, 2012 - 21 comments

‘National’s made a complete cock-up of this and everyone’s pissed, but it doesn’t seem to be hurting them in the polls, where they’re still strong’. You can find that stereotype sentence in the media all the time, particularly in the coverage of the weekend’s National Party conference. But it might be time to do some fact-checking, because they are being hurt in the polls.