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The poll gods must be crazy
Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, February 25th, 2013 - 43 comments
Something about deckchairs…
Written By: - Date published: 7:21 pm, February 24th, 2013 - 71 comments
Word is Labour’s reshuffle will be announced tomorrow.
That ‘ol margin of error
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, February 20th, 2013 - 32 comments
There is no sensible “political narrative” that makes sense of the two most recent polls, it’s just noise – the margin of error. But the underlying trend is still good for the Left…
Poll of polls looking good
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 137 comments
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…
Another flatlining Roy Morgan
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, January 31st, 2013 - 282 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll has National on 46%, Labour 31.5%, the Greens on 13.5%, and NZ First on 5.5%. It just amazes me the government can still poll close to 50% after stuff up, after stuff up. Were this reflected in an election then you can bank on a National-NZ First Government. I’m sick […]
If these trends continue
Written By: - Date published: 11:47 pm, January 18th, 2013 - 173 comments
Key’s government is falling apart, yet one fact remains stubbornly true: walk down the street and nearly 1 in every 2 people you see supports National, while less than 1 in 3 supports Labour (and the 1 in 8 who support the Greens don’t quite make up the difference). When tonight’s Roy Morgan came out I put down my whisky and pulled by my Roy Morgan excel doc. It’s some grim reading.
State housing vs home ownership
Written By: - Date published: 9:45 am, January 11th, 2013 - 160 comments
Labour’s 2012 Kiwibuild policy has focused on building homes for first time buyers. Now we are told Labour’s 2011 policy pledging to increase the state housing stock still stands. This raises many questions: including do-ability and the Labour leadership’s continuing (neoliberal) focus.
Turei: Green Party retrospective
Written By: - Date published: 11:26 am, December 19th, 2012 - 44 comments
Green Party co-leader, Metiria Turei, was confident and clear on TV3, talking about their consistent, disciplined & successful year &: the RONS tax, MP pay rise, government’s poor record, the economy, printing money, jobs, equality issues and child poverty. Little on green issues. Zero on the climate. [Update] Turei RNZ interviews.
What’s new? Shearer retrospective.
Written By: - Date published: 11:35 am, December 17th, 2012 - 124 comments
David Shearer was on TV 3 this morning, reflecting on his last year. He claimed that he and Labour are doing well under new and settled leadership, taking a new direction. How accurate are his claims?
And Fairfax makes three
Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, December 9th, 2012 - 56 comments
After good news for Labour in the most recent TV1 and 3 News polls, the latest Fairfax poll is the third in the set confirming that the party has emerged from the recent media circus in OK shape. As far as I know that’s the last big poll of 2012, and with the Left / Right gap halved since the election, a reasonable place for Labour to be sitting at the end of the year.
The only poll that matters is on election day
Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, December 5th, 2012 - 103 comments
So, recent polls have shown a minor upward blip for Labour. A minor downward blip for National. Ergo, David Shearer must immediately appear on TV to extrapolate why and make big sexy claims about how The Gap Is Narrowing and We Will Clearly Return To The Treasury Benches In 2015 2014. Any time in the next month […]
Meanwhile, on Planet Key
Written By: - Date published: 10:47 am, December 3rd, 2012 - 26 comments
Sure, National is still in the mid-40s and Key will back himself to crucify Shearer in the debates, but his own brand is suffering badly. He’s failed on jobs and increasingly being seen as out of touch. So, is making the news for eating a grasshopper really a smart move?
Two good polls for Labour and Shearer
Written By: - Date published: 6:07 pm, December 2nd, 2012 - 122 comments
Individual polls are nothing to get too excited about, it is the trend over time that matters. That said, the TV1 and 3 News polls tonight were both good news for Labour and Shearer.
29%
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, October 27th, 2012 - 172 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour down 4.5% to 29%. There’s no way to varnish it, this is a very bad poll for Labour, particularly for David Shearer. Yeah, it’s just one poll, and it does come off the back of the GCSB tape debacle. But it’s part of a broader trend of Labour […]
Government failing on jobs, education
Written By: - Date published: 7:29 am, October 25th, 2012 - 46 comments
A TV3 poll shows that 49% to 46% of people believe National is failing to build its promised “brighter future”. The two big weaknesses: jobs and education. By nearly 2 to 1 margins, people believe that National is failing to provide full employment (it says something that this isn’t actually a National Party goal) and failing to provide the best education system possible.
Lab+Greens move well clear of National in latest poll
Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, October 11th, 2012 - 98 comments
The Key effect is over. That’s the conclusion you draw from the latest Roy Morgan poll. It shows National down to 41.5% and Lab+Green surging to 47%. The last time National polled consistently in this range was before Key became leader. Now Key’s no longer an asset, it’s only a matter of time before he’s a liability. The Collins and Joyce Factions will be sharpening the knives.
Polls get worse for National
Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, October 1st, 2012 - 40 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll has National at its lowest level of support since before the 2008 election
Encouraging polls
Written By: - Date published: 2:53 pm, September 24th, 2012 - 69 comments
Encouraging polls in both NZ and America.
What the polls are saying
Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, September 4th, 2012 - 39 comments
I reckon that if Labour and the Greens combined get more votes than National next election, they’ll be able to find enough support parties to govern. Vice versa too. Until March, Lab+Green had been less then National for over four years. Since then, it has been equal or above half the time. In both August polls, Lab+Green was ahead.
Strategy and opinion
Written By: - Date published: 8:21 pm, August 15th, 2012 - 150 comments
Thanks to Rob Salmond and Josie Pagani it is now clear that Labour’s pitch to the centre is an intentional strategy. That is helpful as now perhaps we can have a reasonable discussion about how well it’s working, and what else might work better.
Put away the knives, the polls are up!
Written By: - Date published: 9:59 pm, August 10th, 2012 - 144 comments
I suspect that the knives that were out for a couple days this week will be quietly slipped back into their sheaths now. Labour’s up in the latest Roy Morgan. So are the Greens. The Left’s at 46% vs the Banks Key Government’s 44.5%. We won’t see more hamfisted attempts to undermine Shearer and attack Cunliffe clearing the path for someone else. Well, not until the next bad poll.
3 News polls mums and dads
Written By: - Date published: 12:15 pm, August 10th, 2012 - 43 comments
Turns out that not many “mums and dads” are planning to buy shares in their own assets.
Race-baiting works, a little
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, August 6th, 2012 - 163 comments
Meh. National has race-baited over water rights to win back some of its wavering lower-middle class Pakeha support. It’s won some of that support back. For now. The thing about turning tides is that not every wave, or even every set of waves for some time, reaches less far up the beach than the one lowest before. Within each cycle there are dips and spikes due to events. Doesn’t change the cycle.
Coincidence?
Written By: - Date published: 8:37 am, July 30th, 2012 - 90 comments
Yet more evidence that women are the smarter sex.
What the polls actually show
Written By: - Date published: 9:10 am, July 23rd, 2012 - 21 comments
‘National’s made a complete cock-up of this and everyone’s pissed, but it doesn’t seem to be hurting them in the polls, where they’re still strong’. You can find that stereotype sentence in the media all the time, particularly in the coverage of the weekend’s National Party conference. But it might be time to do some fact-checking, because they are being hurt in the polls.
Long way down
Written By: - Date published: 8:33 am, July 16th, 2012 - 53 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour+Greens neck and neck with National again on 45.5%. The trend is quite clear just looking at the Roy Morgan graphs. And when you look at the key levels that the two sides have to achieve, the change since the election is dramatic.
Trendy polls
Written By: - Date published: 7:21 am, June 11th, 2012 - 121 comments
The last three polls have all been good for the Left. I’d like to be able to point you to a poll of polls to have a look at the trend, but both Curia and Pundit are stuck in an April time warp.
Update: Great to see the Pundit poll of polls up to date again – check it out.
Polls and elections
Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, May 19th, 2012 - 21 comments
Another poll to add to current mix. Not a big shift, but in the right direction, and getting the right kinds of headline. And here’s another headline that isn’t going to help the Nats – the wage gap with Australia is growing at the rate of $1 a month.
The polls must be crazy
Written By: - Date published: 10:08 am, May 2nd, 2012 - 14 comments
OK. I’m officially confused. Is National plummeting or holding? Is Labour gaining or falling? Are the Greens becoming the second party or slipping back? 5 polls: 5 different answers.
Will the Greens lead the next government?
Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, April 8th, 2012 - 195 comments
Two recent pieces in The Herald draw opposite conclusions from recent polls (one of them, alas, is drivel). Matt McCarten asks if National’s free fall, and the rise of the Greens, foreshadows a Green led government in 2014…
Updates, upgrades, and polls
Written By: - Date published: 9:28 pm, April 5th, 2012 - 111 comments
A bit of maintenance work coming up over Easter, and a Morgan poll that covered last week. National show the effects of their mutual collective suicide attempts, and the Greens pick up the benefits. Labour are doing sweet bugger all. Starting to wonder if Labour MP’s are catching the dogpack socializing disease from National. I have an impress ion of mutual arse sniffing and bugger all work. I’m unimpressed with the dog imitations from either party.
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