polls
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Will the Greens lead the next government?
Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, April 8th, 2012 - 195 comments
Two recent pieces in The Herald draw opposite conclusions from recent polls (one of them, alas, is drivel). Matt McCarten asks if National’s free fall, and the rise of the Greens, foreshadows a Green led government in 2014…
Updates, upgrades, and polls
Written By: - Date published: 9:28 pm, April 5th, 2012 - 111 comments
A bit of maintenance work coming up over Easter, and a Morgan poll that covered last week. National show the effects of their mutual collective suicide attempts, and the Greens pick up the benefits. Labour are doing sweet bugger all. Starting to wonder if Labour MP’s are catching the dogpack socializing disease from National. I have an impress ion of mutual arse sniffing and bugger all work. I’m unimpressed with the dog imitations from either party.
TV1 Poll
Written By: - Date published: 9:40 am, April 2nd, 2012 - 40 comments
A TV1 poll yesterday had Key falling as preferred PM, but no significant change for the major parties.
If these trends continue… A-y-y-y!
Written By: - Date published: 10:16 am, March 6th, 2012 - 22 comments
Here’s the trend for the past six months of Roy Morgans projected to the next election.
The long slide
Written By: - Date published: 6:34 am, February 20th, 2012 - 66 comments
According to the latest 3 News poll. National’s long slide has begun. Key’s popularity has also fallen to its lowest level yet as PM…
John Key’s emergency descent
Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, February 12th, 2012 - 15 comments
A great graphic from the Sunday Star Times as John Key starts dropping towards a hard landing in the personal popularity stakes. And in the great tradition of journalists everywhere, the rest of the article is about how he is still preferred by rubber fetishists.
Bugger the polls
Written By: - Date published: 9:48 am, November 28th, 2011 - 141 comments
Pundit’s poll of polls tracked 57 individual polls this year, four of them appearing just a day or so before the election. Every single poll predicted National with the seats to govern alone. Didn’t happen. The polls over estimate Nat support to the tune of about 4%. They need to rethink their methods.
How bad are National’s internals?
Written By: - Date published: 12:33 pm, November 19th, 2011 - 135 comments
Some say the tea tapes haven’t hurt Brand Key. In fact, National is down 2% last week and those polls were largely taken before the tea tapes hit overdrive. It also takes time for impressions and media narratives to bed in. The 26th will be the first poll to really tell us how much the tea tapes have hurt. But the internals could give us a clue.
Main parties down minor parties up
Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments
The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%. The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%. I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.
Interesting poll results
Written By: - Date published: 10:33 am, November 17th, 2011 - 13 comments
Minor Leaders’ debate: Winston Peters 36%, Hone Harawira 27%, Don Brash 14%.
Fairfax Epsom poll: Paul Goldsmith 45.5%, John Banks 29.1%.
Impact of Key endorsement: More likely to vote Banks 23%, Less likely 30%.
Taranaki Daily news debate exit poll: Andrew Little 64.5%, Jonathan Young 28%.
Good news bad news polls
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments
Labour is down in two recent polls (albeit margin of error), but over all the news is good!
Mixed polls
Written By: - Date published: 9:44 am, November 9th, 2011 - 73 comments
The Fairfax Research International poll looks disastrous for Labour, but it’s a new poll with no track record. Laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong, but I’m calling it rogue. In contrast a Herald Mood of the Nation poll today is much better reading for the Left.
TVNZ and Herald polls
Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, November 4th, 2011 - 53 comments
Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front. Don’t panic! The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls. The Left needs to see movement soon – time’s running out fast – but it isn’t a surprise not to see it yet.
Polls good for Left
Written By: - Date published: 1:30 pm, November 3rd, 2011 - 80 comments
There’s a TVNZ poll out tonight and a Herald poll tomorrow morning but, ahead of them, here’s some other new polls results that point to trouble for the Nats. 27% of young people want to leave New Zealand. 82% of people oppose farm sales to foreign buyers. 24% of people will change their vote over the Rena.
NRT on the most important issue
Written By: - Date published: 12:50 pm, November 2nd, 2011 - 39 comments
NRT on the issue that is most important to Kiwis. It isn’t the economy.
Labour up in Fairfax poll
Written By: - Date published: 8:59 am, November 2nd, 2011 - 62 comments
Today’s Fairfax poll shows a rise in support for Labour of 3.2%. What is particularly interesting about this poll is that the sampling period began the same day that Labour announced its “bombshell” retirement policy.
Nats’ biggest ever drop in 3 News poll
Written By: - Date published: 7:11 am, October 31st, 2011 - 68 comments
The latest 3 News / Reid poll has National down 5.1%, their largest drop (in this poll) since becoming the government. Labour is up 3.6%. A long way to go yet, but it’s an encouraging start to the election campaign for the Left.
Ashcroft – the photo-op Key didn’t want
Written By: - Date published: 9:08 pm, October 26th, 2011 - 24 comments
Paddy Gower at TV3 reveals Lord Ashcroft, billionaire Tory donor and International Democratic Union treasurer, has come to talk to Key again. Just discussed politics generally, said Key. Politics yes, generally no. Ashcroft’s interests are now devoted to polling and blog communication, and he is very interested in our election. Having seen Cameron miss out on a majority, he’ll want to help Key to one here.
Mishandled Rena costing Nats votes
Written By: - Date published: 8:02 am, October 21st, 2011 - 51 comments
A recent poll confirms that the expected loss of Nat votes over the Rena disaster is a real effect.
Chart o’ the day: failed gambit
Written By: - Date published: 11:54 am, October 9th, 2011 - 38 comments
Farrar poll sounds ACT’s death knell
Written By: - Date published: 12:09 pm, October 8th, 2011 - 40 comments
National Party pollster David Farrar has been polling in Epsom and the results are not good for the Right. Epsomites are pissed off with their seats being used as a backdoor for ACT into Parliament. They don’t like the gall of the Nats taking out Hide, slotting in Banks and expecting nothing to change. They don’t like dopey Brash.
English: poll downgrade coming
Written By: - Date published: 11:13 am, October 4th, 2011 - 12 comments
Bill ‘Double Dipton’ (or should that be ‘Double Downgrade’?) English says people aren’t focused on politics, which is why National is so high in the polls. When they focus on the main election issue of economic management, DD says the gap will close. Not exactly a strong defence of his and Key’s performance as economic leaders.
A week of polls
Written By: - Date published: 8:25 am, October 3rd, 2011 - 70 comments
What a bizarre week of polls. The Fairfax poll and the Roy Morgan polls both showed swings from National to Labour. The TVNZ poll and the TV3 poll did not. (Hey TV3 – that’s some pretty sloppy writing!) In other news, Key finally equalled Helen Clark’s peak rating as preferred PM.
Gap closes in latest Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, October 1st, 2011 - 86 comments
Like the recent Fairfax poll, yesterday’s Roy Morgan shows a significant swing from National to Labour.
Gap closes in latest Fairfax
Written By: - Date published: 9:01 am, September 28th, 2011 - 56 comments
The latest Fairfax poll has the Labour – National gap closing a bit.
Roy Morgan and Sue Bradford
Written By: - Date published: 6:03 pm, September 17th, 2011 - 115 comments
From the miscellaneous bits of news department – a particularly grim Roy Morgan poll, and the announcement that Sue Bradford is standing for Mana against Paula Bennett in Waitakere.
Substance vs style
Written By: - Date published: 7:32 am, August 24th, 2011 - 75 comments
A couple of polls have now confirmed that on key issues voters prefer Labour policy over National. When push comes to shove in November, will Kiwis vote for the style that they like, or the substance that they want?
Only 56%?
Written By: - Date published: 7:45 am, August 23rd, 2011 - 55 comments
According to one poll 56 percent of Labour voters say Labour won’t win. Good on them I say.
Labour up in Colmar Brunton
Written By: - Date published: 6:42 pm, August 21st, 2011 - 57 comments
Good to see Labour up 3% in the latest TV1 / Colmar Brunton poll.
No news is no news
Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, August 13th, 2011 - 6 comments
Very little change over the last three Roy Morgan polls. Which suggests to me that voters still aren’t really paying attention.
- Nerves and uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans
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- The march on Wellington
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- Daily crossword, Monday 18 November
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- Luxon faced with superpower struggle
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- Newsroom daily quiz, Monday 18 November
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- Businesses will have to accept cash for essentials under government plan
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- Countries clash over emissions cuts at COP29
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