polls
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Latest Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, December 8th, 2009 - 30 comments
The latest Roy Morgan shows no statistically significant changes. National at 53.5% (up 2), Labour at 30.5% (down 1.5), and the Green at 7% (up 0.5). Only a third of polling period was after Goff’s nationhood speech, so any possible effects likely won’t show up till the next poll. In late November support for John Key’s […]
The Key to change?
Written By: - Date published: 10:25 pm, November 29th, 2009 - 9 comments
Will Key go to Copenhagen? Or rather, why wouldn’t he want to go? According to TVNZ tonight: At least 90 world leaders are now expected to attend next month’s global climate change talks in Copenhagen but New Zealand’s prime minister still says he will not be among them. That is despite coming under pressure at […]
Poll shows Kiwis prefer MMP
Written By: - Date published: 12:54 pm, November 12th, 2009 - 25 comments
NZPA reports on a new poll from UMR which shows Kiwis don’t want to dump MMP for a less proportional electoral system. The survey used the proposed wording of the referendum and found 48 percent in favour of keeping MMP and only 40 percent in favour of changing the system. Interestingly, when people were told […]
End of year polls
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 pm, November 9th, 2009 - 35 comments
Not much to say but spotted the new Roy Morgan: The latest NZ Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government is 60.5% (up 1.5%) comprising National Party 55.5% (up 2.5%), Maori Party 3.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (down 1.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged) according to the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll […]
Herald Hacker did us all a favour
Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, November 4th, 2009 - 27 comments
The New Zealand Herald have disabled all online polls on their website until further notice, after a hacker (or hackers) severely skewed the results of three polls. I say well done, and I’m sure I’m not the only one sick of online polls being carried out by the media and reported as news. Firstly there’s […]
Guest post: polling hypocrisy
Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, October 26th, 2009 - 43 comments
I read John Key’s criticism of Labour’s polling methods with a smiling interest. It’s not a good look is it, for a political party to phone up our good citizens of the blue and ask them a series of personal questions; especially when they maintain the guise of boni fide research company. Rewind to 2002. […]
Talk about politics
Written By: - Date published: 11:21 pm, October 19th, 2009 - 8 comments
On RNZ’s Nine to Noon today Andrew Campbell rips the shit out of National‘s grotesque mismanagement of the Rugby World Cup fiasco and laments the lack of talent in the PM’s staff, all the while Matthew Hooton gently weeps. There’s also talk about how despite the ongoing cock-ups of this Government the polls are still […]
It will happen, not today, not tomorrow but…
Written By: - Date published: 9:33 pm, October 18th, 2009 - 30 comments
As I scanned the stuff website I came across the latest TV3 poll results. Scarcely what I’d regard as cheerful Sunday night reading (National on 59.9%, Labour 27.2%, Greens 6.9% ). But upon reading Duncan Garner’s blog I decided that while the sea change might not be happening now the signs are there that it […]
A long time between drinks
Written By: - Date published: 8:20 am, September 21st, 2009 - 22 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll puts National down 5% and Labour up 4%. Still a big gap, but it seems at last New Zealanders’ patience is waning over this Government’s competence and honesty issues.
Eventually but not yet
Written By: - Date published: 11:43 am, August 15th, 2009 - 40 comments
John Armstrong quotes a man who ran into Phil Goff during Labour’s reconnection tour last week: “Listen, mate. You know we voted these guys in seven months ago. You don’t expect us to come up and say we did the wrong thing yet, do you?” Now, Armstrong takes that as dooming Labour but look at […]
UMR has Len Brown ahead of Banks
Written By: - Date published: 1:45 pm, July 23rd, 2009 - 30 comments
UMR’s just released a poll showing Manukau mayor Len Brown as the preferred mayor of the Auckland Super City, slightly ahead of John Banks. The poll shows Brown on 35%, Banks on 34%, and 31% undecided. They’ve also done a matchup between Banks and Auckland Regional Council chair Mike Lee. Banks left Lee in the […]
Bugger the polls
Written By: - Date published: 10:13 am, June 29th, 2009 - 34 comments
With every new cock-up or dereliction of duty from this Key government, righties point to the Roy Morgan polls and say ‘seems the voters don’t care’. It’s true that National is still polling around 50% in the Roy Morgan and parties’ internal polls. Yet the old hands in the Left aren’t too worried. Short of […]
Why the Herald’s polls are stupid
Written By: - Date published: 3:00 pm, June 9th, 2009 - 34 comments
Old news
Written By: - Date published: 10:04 am, June 9th, 2009 - 2 comments
Saw this strange article from NZPA last night. National may be behind in the polls for the upcoming Mt Albert by-election, but nationwide it still maintaining high levels of popularity. The latest nationwide Roy Morgan poll recorded unchanged support for National with 52 per cent and Labour down half a percentage point to 31 per […]
The Backlash Begins
Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, April 28th, 2009 - 43 comments
We’ve been warning that John Key faces a backlash in Auckland if he doesn’t rein in Rodney Hide and present a democratic supercity structure instead of the rort that is on the table now. We’re starting to see it. A poll out yesterday shows only 12% of people in Key’s own electorate support his government’s […]
Lost in translation
Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, April 22nd, 2009 - 32 comments
UMR has just released a poll [PDF link] measuring support for a supercity. Stuff reports on it under the headline “Voters back Auckland supercity”: Though the poll’s sample of just 483 is small, it is the first real indicator of support for the supercity concept, with 45 percent of Aucklanders in favour, and 43 percent […]
Capitalism losing its allure
Written By: - Date published: 9:09 am, April 13th, 2009 - 36 comments
The capitalist doctrine sure has taken a beating lately. Not only have its raw excesses created a global crash which shows no signs of abating, not only has it been bailed out and propped up everywhere by nationalisation and trillion dollar taxpayer funded handouts, but now it seems that the people are starting to lose […]
Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 9:29 am, February 20th, 2009 - 34 comments
Well, that’s slightly better. The new Roy Morgan poll has the Nats on 48.5%, still a solid result but well down on the TV3 poll on Wednesday that had them on 60. The numbers are: National 48.5% Labour 32% Greens 8.5% Maori 3.5% ACT 2.5% NZ First 1.5% Progressives 1% United 0.5% Others 2% Obviously […]
Thankfully, the election isn’t tomorrow
Written By: - Date published: 11:05 am, February 19th, 2009 - 148 comments
When John Key and Pita Sharples were jostled by two Maori men opposed to the National-Maori Party alliance, the thing that stuck in my mind was Key’s smile. Like Donald Trump’s hair, it was back in place immediately, covering whatever lies underneath. That smile, and the intensive, expensive, extensive image management it represents, are the […]
Kids set back children’s franchise 100 years
Written By: - Date published: 3:55 pm, November 26th, 2008 - 23 comments
The results are in from the NZ Post-sponsored Kids Voting project, and while it’s a worthy project it nonetheless shows why we don’t allow children the franchise. More than 13,000 school students nationwide took part in the project aimed at encouraging kids to take an interest in our democracy. The resulting Parliament had Labour and […]
Final Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, November 7th, 2008 - 43 comments
The final Roy Morgan poll is out and the Left (LPG+M) has it by a nose with 62 seats out of a 122 seat Parliament. The Greens will be happy with 10% – that puts them in a strong negotiating position after the election and gives a 17 seat voting bloc in conjunction with the […]
Down to the wire
Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, November 7th, 2008 - 30 comments
The last polls are out, except for Roy Morgan, which will presumably be out later today. Here are how the blocs sit (assuming 7 seats for the Maori Party. If they get just 4, the majority to govern will drop by 2 and the Left bloc will drop 3, giving bigger leads to the Right): […]
Where are the polls?
Written By: - Date published: 10:31 am, November 5th, 2008 - 36 comments
I know, they’re inaccurate and out of date. And it’s only three days until the only poll that counts. But I’m curious! It’s now been ten days since the last public poll, which strikes me as a bizarre gap at the high of the electoral campaign. I guess they’re all saving up their final poll […]
Text polls
Written By: - Date published: 7:15 pm, November 3rd, 2008 - 25 comments
Watching the TV3 debate and it seems they’re running another text poll. It’s too early yet to tell who’s going to win, but what’s the bet the text poll favours the party whose voters are wealthy enough to: a) be at home on a weekday evening, b) own a cellphone, and c) be in a […]
Arseneau: Election too close to call
Written By: - Date published: 1:26 pm, October 31st, 2008 - 64 comments
In her blog column Teresa Arseneau discusses the polls overall, and what happens if the largest party doesn’t form the government: Several of these polls suggest that while National is likely to “win” the election – receive both the most votes and seats – it may not govern….But in an MMP election it is important […]
Horse racing
Written By: - Date published: 10:26 pm, October 27th, 2008 - 70 comments
Here are the results of the last four polls, released over the past four days. I’ve presented them in number of seats won and grouped the parties into Left and Right based on these facts: ACT is locked with National as the Progressives are with Labour, the Greens won’t go with National, UF won’t go […]
Polling Biases
Written By: - Date published: 6:47 pm, October 26th, 2008 - 26 comments
This is from the discussion area of the wikipedia page on opinion polls. It is an analysis of biases between the polling companies by trewa. I know how much our own commentators are interested in the biases of different polls, so this will give some kind of basis for comparison. Personally I think that land-line […]
Here be dragons
Written By: - Date published: 10:02 pm, October 25th, 2008 - 20 comments
So, we can all make up dumb pictures and say ‘beware of many-headed monsters’. Let’s, instead, ask if National’s attack makes sense. First, any new government is going to need support from a number of parties. A Labour-led government is likely to be dependent on Labour, the Progressives, Greens, and the Maori Party (four parties). […]
Poll Trends – National is soft
Written By: - Date published: 7:55 am, October 25th, 2008 - 43 comments
Rather than argue about individual polls, it is more interesting to look at the overall trends. A number of people have put an excellent summary of the polls up on wikipedia. What is noticeable to me about this chart is that the National support looks very soft. Coming up towards an election with the less […]
Roy Morgan poll
Written By: - Date published: 2:49 pm, October 24th, 2008 - 86 comments
And the polls keep coming. Today’s Roy Morgan poll has Labour down 5.5% and National up slightly, while the Greens rise to an astonishing 11.5% – that’s 15 MPs. NZ First drops just below the threshold to 4.5%. Under this scenario an LPG+M arrangement is possible, but only just, with 61 seats out of 121 […]
Herald Digipoll
Written By: - Date published: 9:15 am, October 24th, 2008 - 72 comments
The latest Herald Digipoll presents quite a different picture to last night’s 3 News poll. While TV3 had the Left and Right blocs neck-and-neck with the Maori Party as kingmaker, the Herald has National still able to govern alone at 50.4% and 63 seats. You can argue all you like over whether this result is […]
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