Written By: - Date published: 11:11 am, July 14th, 2014 - 35 comments
I am really sorry to see the return of the Worm this election. It’s bad enough we have way more polling than we need, interfering with democratic process. Now we have even more of the same, with the way the Worm is to be implemented. [Updated]
Written By: - Date published: 8:32 pm, May 7th, 2014 - 168 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll result is out and although it bounces around and trends rather than individual results are more important National’s support has slumped signficicantly and Labour’s and the Green’s support has risen.
Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, November 27th, 2013 - 111 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is out and things are neck and neck.
Written By: - Date published: 2:32 pm, October 3rd, 2013 - 27 comments
In the wake of the astounding victory of the NZ team in San Diego, Scott at Imperator Fish offers these words of sage advice to those on the left looking at recent polling. For those of you convinced by the current winning trend, some of us hope that you will take his advice (so the rest of us can carry on with the work that needs to be done).
Written By: - Date published: 6:12 am, August 20th, 2013 - 76 comments
National 44 (down 7), Labour 34 (up 5), Greens 14 (up 4).
Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, July 19th, 2013 - 151 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll is mixed news for the Left. A second high result for National, but Labour’s vote holding steady after difficult weeks.
Written By: - Date published: 8:52 am, March 20th, 2013 - 28 comments
The Roy Morgan polls continue their mad merry-go-round, and we bloggers continue to get too excited about it. The latest RM projects a win for Labour / Greens.
Written By: - Date published: 9:09 pm, February 28th, 2013 - 146 comments
I guess the title says it all. The latest Roy Morgan has National at 47.5% (up 3.5%), Labour 30.5% (down 4%), Greens 12.5%, and NZ First at 3%. I’m not really in the mood to piss around with analysis tonight. You’ve heard me moan about the state of Labour enough lately. But it’s not the […]
Written By: - Date published: 7:53 am, February 14th, 2013 - 136 comments
Yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll looks good for Labour, but individual polls are noisy. Much more importantly, better measures such as the Pundit poll of polls are also looking good for the political Left. Let’s see Labour and the Greens extend their lead to establish a clear majority, without NZF or any other party holding the balance of power…
Written By: - Date published: 6:15 pm, January 31st, 2013 - 281 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll has National on 46%, Labour 31.5%, the Greens on 13.5%, and NZ First on 5.5%. It just amazes me the government can still poll close to 50% after stuff up, after stuff up. Were this reflected in an election then you can bank on a National-NZ First Government. I’m sick […]
Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, October 27th, 2012 - 171 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll has Labour down 4.5% to 29%. There’s no way to varnish it, this is a very bad poll for Labour, particularly for David Shearer. Yeah, it’s just one poll, and it does come off the back of the GCSB tape debacle. But it’s part of a broader trend of Labour […]
Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, October 1st, 2011 - 84 comments
Like the recent Fairfax poll, yesterday’s Roy Morgan shows a significant swing from National to Labour.
Written By: - Date published: 8:05 am, August 13th, 2011 - 6 comments
Very little change over the last three Roy Morgan polls. Which suggests to me that voters still aren’t really paying attention.
Written By: - Date published: 8:28 pm, July 20th, 2011 - 110 comments
TV1′s poll on Sunday was supposedly curtains for CGT, so what does it mean that the latest Roy Morgan has the Nats down 5% and the Left in striking range of an upset win? It means don’t draw instant conclusions linking one poll to one policy (although it must be tempting when you’ve spent $30K getting the numbers) – watch the trends.
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, June 21st, 2011 - 27 comments
The Roy Morgan Polls are all over the place, at the moment, and the latest one has the Left at the bottom of the roller coaster. In other news, the Readers Digest survey of most trusted individuals, which this year is dominated by scientists!
Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, April 29th, 2011 - 35 comments
The latest Roy Morgan is out, with good news for the Left compared to the rogue TV3 poll. As a bonus extra we have some sage advice, from an unexpected source, on polls in general…
Written By: - Date published: 9:32 pm, April 8th, 2011 - 49 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows little impact from the Darren Hughes affair to date. We still don’t know how the investigation will play out but the poll suggests dithering leadership matters less than economic fundamentals. The big news, though, is that New Zealand First would be back under these numbers.
Written By: - Date published: 7:34 am, March 5th, 2011 - 90 comments
Another Roy Morgan poll is out, and the results make for interesting reading.
Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 78 comments
It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads and look at the trends. The Left has more than halved the Right’s lead since its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?
Written By: - Date published: 12:56 pm, February 5th, 2011 - 65 comments
OK, that title is pure spin. National has dropped from 55% to 49% in the latest Roy Morgan, and Labour’s up from 29% to 34.5%. But that just shows the last poll was a rogue. Now, normal transmission, and National’s decline, has resumed. When you look at the Nat/ACT and Lab/Green/New Zealand First potential coalitions – the race is tight and closing fast.
Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, December 22nd, 2010 - 37 comments
It’s First Past the Post thinking to look at the polling gap between National and Labour and conclude National will romp home. MMP is here and set to stay – it means the coalition with the support of a majority of MPs governs, not necessarily the largest party. The final Roy Morgan of the year lets us look at the trends in support for Left and Right.
Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, November 10th, 2010 - 45 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows confidence in government plummeted during the Hobbit debacle. It shows confidence in government falling to a new low for Key’s administration. At the beginning of the year, nearly three-quarters of the population agreed the country was heading in the right direction. Barely 50% do now.
Written By: - Date published: 10:47 am, May 20th, 2010 - 47 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll makes for grim reading for the government ahead of what promsies to be an unpopular budget. Confidence in government is now bouncing between net 25% and 30% positive. That compares to 55% last October. Put that another way: 1 in 8 Kiwis have gone from having a postive view of this government to a negative one in the past half year, and it’s showing up in the party’s numbers.
Written By: - Date published: 12:42 am, April 12th, 2010 - 18 comments
Smile and wave is easy enough in the first year, people are willing to give you a chance. But at some point, the public expects a government to get to work tackling the big problems. National displays no will or ability to do so. In just two months, 1 in 8 Kiwis has switched from thinking the country is heading in the right direction under Key to thinking things are getting worse.